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pinkpops Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:27 PM
Original message
The statisticians who designed the exit polls
not the customers or managers, the statisticians. Do they accept that their results were off-base?
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:31 PM
Response to Original message
1. Since the exit polls were all done by a single company
And the fact that the exit polls were rather accurate in every state but the two most important, Florida and Ohio, it is obious that something other than the exit polls were inaccurate. In all other states these polls were accurate to about one percentage point. They ewere more accurate than the polls MoE's would have indicated.

So there is something other than inaccurate exit polls to consider, though themedia which is now and extension of the government, rather than independent of it will never ask any real questions about what hapened, but rather push the asking of questions indicating theinaccuracy of the exit polls rather than point to the places that they were accurate in.
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benddem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:47 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. Exit polling is a pretty exact science
In Germany they call the election based on the exit polls. They are always right. The strange thing is that in the 2000 election the Fl exit polls were wrong. Some of that could be the people in Miami Dade who voted for Buchanan...but they were wrong state wide.
Now we have the HUGE discrepancy between the ballots counted by machine and tabulated other ways. It seems very strange.
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bullimiami Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 12:48 AM
Response to Reply #5
12. right the exit polls have been proving fraud
since bush came along in 2000. thats when the big fraud started. weve been had since then.

we tried to vote for a democratic world. renewable energy, no war. it was stolen by a totalitarian bastard squad, that wants war, wants to take over the middle east, has no morals, lies, steals, cheats. sad for us. partly due to the press, partly due to a corrupt supreme court, partly due to us for putting up with it.

we played fair though. we bided our time. we worked within the system and turned out to make it right in the way americans ar supposed to. by voting. we didnt know how rigged it was.
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Smarmie Doofus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. Now I'm confused...
I thought truthisall ( see home page) was contending that the exit polls were inconsistent with the results in every state where there was black-box voting; not just Florida and Ohio.

No?
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 01:27 AM
Response to Reply #7
13. Not from what the news in the states indicated
All you really need to do is go back to the varios papaers in various states and look at what the exit polls were stating in the early evening, and then look at the final results for the states.

Some news from some counties in Flrodai for instance are indicating that a lot more votes than it woul;d seem are turing up to have been just eliminated. Duval county alone is beginning get to the halfway point of the 27,000 votes that were thrown out in 2000.

So we have two counties, Dade and Duval, where machines eleiminated somewhere between 15 and 20,000 votes for Kerry.

The voter turnout in Florida approached something beterrn 75 and 80 percent. In Duval it was 80 percent. Yet votes for Kery fell suspiciously below the 36 percent demcratic vote that ususally turns out in this county.

In Broward County alone, tweaking errors in the machines turned a no vote for Amendemnt 4 into a yes vote


In Palm Beach County an even stranger error occured with the machines registering s gsp of over 88,408 votes...

542,835 votes were counted, though only 454,427 voters turned out.

Watching the network news, we have been given the impression that this was one of the smoothest elections in history. The facts are beginning to indicate that this was another coup d'etat staged by the Bush Administration, with the media taking part.

THis time rather than altering data in the large mainframes counting the votes, it appears that another method was found. Alteroing the votes at the precinct levels.

To achieve that kind of result, , a preprogrammed “kernel of brain” would have to be inserted into election computers beforehand or teams of hackers would be needed to penetrate the lightly protected systems, targeting touch-screen systems without a paper backup for verifying the numbers.

Evidence that this is what occured exists in the vote gap in Palm Beach County, as well as in the nearly 4,000 votes cast for Kerry one a SINGLE MACHINE in Dade County.

In Florida registered democrats had a numerical advantage of about 360,000 voters. GIven a 75 percent turnout Kerry could have led by 270,000 votes. Lets say only 80 percent of Democrats votes for Kerry and 20 percent for Bush. We now have a 216,000 vote lead for Kerry.
THats without any Republican Voters voting for Bush, when polls indicated that about ten percent of Republican voters were going to vote against Bush. The sheer mathematic alone would give Kerry an inevitable win in Florida no matter what happened.

Vote counts in Dade County make it appear that not a single voter more voted in that county alone than voted in 2000. This would indicate that regardless of what all polls said about voter turnout in Dade the actual percentage of voters who turned out in Dadew was LESS than the average turnout of 74 percent in the other counties. All polls for the rest of the state indicated that turnout would be something in the area of 70 percent or higher. For one county alone to buck the treds set in the rest of the entire state is most unlikely.

Analysis of the votes show a very high turnout for Bush, but no matter how high a turnoud there was, it is again, unlikely that it could possibly overturn the numberical advantage for Kewrry in that state.

The more the data is looked at, the more that evidence of some kind of eletronic mainpulation of the votes becomes more and more likely.

While Security at the mainframe level for the computers counting votes at the state level was very high, the security at the precinct level was very low, and in some cases non-existant. All of the touch screen machines were linked into local computers which counted and then sent the votes up to the state. The local computers were linked up to the mainframes at the state, and electronically transferred counts up to the state. This is a two way street. Since these are not transferred on dedicated lines. but simply connected to the Internet through their own data lines linked partially into the Internet, and partially to a counties Wide Area Network, it is very simply for anyone to get into the system from the outside. In fact it is possible to get into Broward County's government site directly through the Internet, or even through the County Library's Freenet.
While there is some security, I can tell you from having worked for the Broward County Library system it is not so sophisticated that someone with access to the system from anywhere in the country, with the correct passwords, or the simple hacking ability to get around it to access the main computers, and then get directly to the precinct levels to change the results on the touch screen machines. Once you get past the main county levels the voting machines were totally unprotected. Same for Dade. I will not even try to tell you how simple it would have been in Duval.

There are other indications as well. Speaking to oinsiders in the Democratic Party who have spoken to Kerry campaign insiders I have been told of the massive Republican to implementing any backup systems for checking the results on the Diebols and other electronic voting machines. Diebold has said that its machines were totally invulnerable to hacking. There is hacking and there is hacking. If you have been given the program code for these systems, plus passwords, it isnt hacking, Its direct acccess. The claim that anything is hackproof is sheer fantasy.

So lets look at the possibilities. almost 4000 votes in Dade County cast for Bush that went for Kerry. In a single precinct on one machine. What would it take for Bus to win Florida by say 400,000 votes. A Dade like error in 100 machjines in 100 precinct in the largest counties in Florida, Or lets change that 400 votes for Kerry given to Bush in 1000 precinct all over the stte. Beyond imagining. Hardly. As each day passes and little glitches are reported all over the place, it seems more likely than not.

The 88,000 odd votes that were cast without having matching voters would get me suspicious immediately.

As I noted, in Florida, all the makings of a coup d'etat are possible.

There were similar complaints in Ohio. In Columbus, on one machine alons nearly 4000 votes cast for Kerry went to Bush. A number too close to the number of votes reported on a single machine in Dade County to be accidental.

No other precints have been checked for similar errors in the 5000 odd precints in Ohio. A mix of large machine erros oon a few machines in high population, high democratic counties along with smaller errors in smaller Republican counties which would more than likely NEVER be reported could easly have occured.

I know that inDuval, a number of such events occured, as I and a few other Democratic friends witnessed them. At a small precinct in Duval, I witnessed three such "I cast my vote for Kerry, bt after I did, the final screen said I voted for Bush" events myself within the period of a half and hour. The poll workers all said there was nothing that could be done.

Anoter friend witnessed more subtle non counting of Kerry votes on optical scan machines. When He brought his mother to vote, he helped her and watched as the machine added one vote to the count as the tally counter on the machinne rolled over. When he cast his own vote,. the counter stayed at the previous number. The next voter, (another friend) had his vote counted. A little later, another freind at the same machine noted that his vote had not resulted in an increase in the tally. There were no responses from the poll workers when this was reported.


So there are aparantly sopme places where events simlar to the Dade event which occred, but were not even reported to the media or to anyone. Were not chacked out at all.

Co-incidence?
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Smarmie Doofus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 08:45 PM
Response to Reply #13
19. You said a mouthful....

Coincidence, probably not.... but more than I can absorb tonite. I've bookmarked this to be reread tomorrow.

Thanks.
Paul
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tridim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:33 PM
Response to Original message
2. There's a FAQ on their site
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splat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:42 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. these guys would love to prove their exit polls were accurate
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pinkpops Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Thanks, I just sent them an email asking
why they just go into a fetal position.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 12:41 AM
Response to Reply #4
11. The Horse Head on the Bed May Have Had Something to Do with it
Remember how terrified that poor smuck from VNS sounded
on election night 2000, when they paraded him in front of
the national news to tell everyone that the exit polls
that had showed Gore winning Florida were all "bad data"?

They didn't even bother with that this time, they just quietly
changed the numbers in the middle of the night.
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dweller Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #2
8. is there more to your link?
Not Found

The requested URL /election-night/styles.css was not found on this server.


dp
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efhmc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:49 PM
Response to Original message
6. I just want to know why they got my hopes so high early in the
evening?
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EndElectoral Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:20 PM
Response to Original message
9. Damn! Can you imagine if Bush won those Exit Polls and lost those states?
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 11:22 PM by EndElectoral
The Repubs would be going nuts. What the hell are we rolling over for?

Jesus, they stole it in 2000 and I'll be damn if I'm gonna just sit here and let them do it again. The media doesn't even report this stuff!

I refuse to allow John Ashcroft and Orin Hatch to become the next Supreme Court Justices.



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pinkpops Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:36 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. The media
Why won't the media pick up on BBV fraud?
This dialog from Men in Black might be a clue:

JAY
Can we drop the cover-up bullshit?! There's
an Alien Battle Cruiser that's gonna blow-up
the world if we don't...

KAY
There's always an Alien Battle Cruiser...or
a Korlian Death Ray, or...an intergalactic
plague about to wipe out life on this
planet, and the only thing that lets people
get on with their hopeful little lives is
that they don't know about it.

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splat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 12:32 PM
Response to Reply #10
14. when bev is ready...
she says they have a "cadillac media list."

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robbedvoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 12:39 PM
Response to Original message
15. Exit polls have ALWAYS been accurate, First exception: Florida 2000
In 2002 there were enough exceptions to trash them BEFORE publication. This time - accurate in non-Diebold states.
But then again, statistics is a science, and jebus sez science comes from the devil.
Must be lots of hermaphrodites in Ohio since kerry was leading in exit bolls in both men and woman, but they undersampled hermaphrodites.
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ROH Donating Member (521 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 02:47 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. Link to 2000 Exit Polls and Actual Results?
Has anyone here a link showing the exit polls and actual results in 2000?
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Paxdora Donating Member (223 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 05:50 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. kick!
This is exactly what I want to see!
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noiretextatique Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 05:52 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. from google
Edited on Sun Nov-07-04 05:53 PM by noiretblu
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Gregorian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 09:41 PM
Response to Original message
20. Evan Thomas is on CSPAN saying the exit polls were wrong.
Edited on Sun Nov-07-04 09:45 PM by Gregorian
Thomas, the assitant managing editor of Newsweek, is describing the mood in the White House, and how there was a call to Rove that the "exit polls were wrong". Suddenly they all perked up. He said that evidently women were polled more often than men, or some such thing.

I don't know who it is he claims to have called Rove. But this spin seems awfully full of crap to me. I sense that Thomas is a republican.

It just appears that the new spin is that the exit polls were wrong. This, I simply do not accept. But some research on how the polls were conducted might provide more clarity on this issue of being "wrong".
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