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"Presidential poll may track big changes in Dade
If the latest Miami Herald poll is correct, the road to the White House no longer runs exclusively through Little Havana, it now winds its way through the streets of Wynwood and Allapattah and Homestead.
And if that's true, President Bush is in trouble.
The Herald poll shows Sen. John Kerry winning Miami-Dade County with 54.3 percent of the vote to 41.5 for Bush. Four percent are undecided.
Splitting those undecided voters down the middle, Kerry goes to 56 percent, Bush to 43 and Ralph Nader will end up with less than 1 percent.
If Kerry wins Miami-Dade County 56 to 43, then the likelihood of him winning Florida is very high. Here's why:
In 2000, Al Gore beat Bush by almost 40,000 votes in Miami-Dade County."
(snip)
BIG NUMBERS
According to the Herald poll, done by Zogby International, Kerry is positioned to win Miami-Dade by anywhere from 90,000 to 100,000 votes.
A margin that large in Florida's most populous county would be hard for Bush to make up across the rest of the state.
Now I realize if the poll's margin of error were to fall in the president's favor, Kerry would beat Bush, 53 to 46 percent (instead of 56-43). But even then, because of new voters, Kerry would still walk away with 50,000 more votes than Bush.
But here is why the Herald poll rings true.
Between 2000 and 2004, the split between Democrats and Republican is virtually the same in almost every category."
(snip)
"THE CUBAN-AMERICAN VOTE
In 2000, an overwhelming majority of Cuban Americans went to Bush and the latest Herald poll shows the same thing happening again.
In 2000, the Jewish and black votes went overwhelmingly for Gore and the latest poll has them doing the same for Kerry. Among Anglos, Kerry is ahead, but Bush has tightened the gap.
The one group that is radically different -- and it is why the poll makes sense -- is a shift among non-Cuban Hispanics, who are backing Kerry almost two-to-one.
Overall, Hispanics -- both Cubans and non-Cubans -- still support Bush, according to the Herald poll, with 62 percent saying they will vote for the president and 35 percent saying they will vote for Kerry."
(snip)
"DEMOCRATS IMPROVE
Nevertheless, that is a tremendous improvement for the Democrats over 2000, when 73 percent of Hispanics favored Bush and only 27 percent voted for Gore.
And almost all of those gains for Kerry have come from Mexicans, Salvadorans, Dominicans, Colombians and Puerto Ricans among others. Many of whom are going to be voting for the first time.
The raw numbers: In 2000, Bush won among all Hispanics by 135,000 votes. Based on the Herald poll, Bush's lead among Hispanics in 2004 will be closer to 95,000 votes.
Narrowing that gap by 40,000 votes between 2000 and 2004 is a huge accomplishment for Democrats and shows the very real impact voter registration groups such as Mi Familia are having on this year's election. In six months, Mi Familia registered 66,000 new voters in Florida, many of them here in Miami-Dade and most of them non-Cuban Hispanics."
- There you have it
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