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Full Cuyahoga caterpillar ballot order available in text file now.

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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 04:43 AM
Original message
Full Cuyahoga caterpillar ballot order available in text file now.

This includes all candidates (but not ballot questions) for all 1463
precincts, along with a number telling you which polling place the
precinct was at, one precinct per line.

Thanks to AirAmFan for getting me started, and for his previous and ongoing analysis of the issue. And thanks very much to dzika for hosting the file so my cable modem doesn't crap out 15 times tomorrow.

Data is here:

http://www.edwardsdavid.com/bri/cuyerpillar.zip

Format is described here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=172&topic_id=5180#5250

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melwoods Donating Member (58 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 05:14 AM
Response to Original message
1. I couldn't get either link to work for me
The first one said "file corrupted" and the 2nd one said "error in processing"- But then again, my computer "skills" blow ,so it could just be me.:)
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Demit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 05:44 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. LOL! clicking on a link is a computer skill? (Didn't work for me either.)
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AirAmFan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 09:19 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Try accessing just the subdirectory, and then right-clicking
Edited on Sat Jan-15-05 10:13 AM by AirAmFan
either the text file or the zip file at

http://www.edwardsdavid.com/bri/ .

I didn't bother with the zip file.

The data look OK on first inspection. The number of lines is correct (1436 precincts), and the number of dfferent contests is 41 or 42, starting with the Presidential race ("r0").

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AirAmFan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 10:33 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. The DU glitch won't let me into the Ohio forum now
to edit my post on patterns I discovered, and I've got to go to work now.

But my edit to post #12 at http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=172&topic_id=5180 is that the repeating pattern for races with three candidates is "UVW UVW UVW UVW ..." , to match the notation in my list of patterns 301, 302, 303, ..., 315.
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melwoods Donating Member (58 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 04:31 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. Ah, got it now, thanks!
but now my head hurts.:)
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 01:21 PM
Response to Original message
5. Hrm, they both work for me...

So I don't know what to say about the problems.
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 02:46 PM
Response to Original message
6. A suggested analysis.
I just thought I would point out that, with the lower ticket information, it is possible to use a second method to get a corroborating figure to back up other analysis which are based on the number of third party votes. Here's how:


Take two races at a time, let's work with the president/senate race as an example. Find all the precincts where there was no crawl in either race, which obviously includes precincts which did not share polling places. However, as an example, it also includes some mixed precincts (not very many, but a few):

"132","1612","CLEVE02L","r0(jfk-d,rn-dq,mp-o,mb-o,gwb-r)","r1(gvv-r,edf-d)",
"132","1617","CLEVE02Q","r0(jfk-d,rn-dq,mp-o,mb-o,gwb-r)","r1(gvv-r,edf-d)",

Calculate the ratio of votes received by kerry over those received by fingerhut, and the ratio of votes received by bush over the votes received by voinovich. If there is only one candidate in the race, calculate the other race's numbers against that candidate. In the races for justices, figure out the party alignment based on the vote totals.

With the numbers you get from all these calculations, find an average ratio, and a margin of error.

Then do the rest of the pairs of races. You end up with a table of ratios and margins of error between each set of races. Throw out as many of the ratios with large MOEs as you can, and still cover all the precincts for the next step.

Now, use the ratios for the races that had no crawls to calculate the likely votes for the other races. In some precincts, there will be only the unopposed candidates to work with.

The final results should give an idea of which candidates were hurt and by how much, across the whole ticket, with a margin of error to boot. Getting the MOE calcs right, though, would require a statistician, which I am not.

But I'll help a credidentialed statistician do data reorganization as needed, if they would like to tackle it.

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KaliTracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 05:32 PM
Response to Original message
8. Great work! It's incredible that so many people are involved in this
analysis... You'd think somehow MSM would get wind and actually start reporting....

A website by James Q. Jacobs that dzika had in new searchengine gives a VERY comprehensive look at Cuyahoga County ballot order and Precinct Location. http://www.jqjacobs.net/bush/xls/caterpiller_orders.xls

His home page is http://www.jqjacobs.net/bush/xls/ohio.html (also analysis there of possible vote changes)
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