New Jersey exit poll - please read

[ClintCooper2003]

Hey. I just went through the Americablog.org archive and found some more exit poll info from election night. Here was a post as it appeared (minus the graphic which didn't copy properly.)



"Interesting exit polls - NJ
by Rob in Baltimore - 11/2/2004 08:37:09 PM

New Jersey was called very early for Kerry. This is good news. The Republicans had thought that they a shot there. They didn't. Why? Check out these exit polls for New Jersey from CNN:

HAVE YOU EVER VOTED BEFORE?
No (13%) Bush 34% Kerry 63% Nader 3%
Yes (87%) Bush 43% Kerry 55% Nader 2%"

Thus according to this ORIGINAL exit poll from election night that was posted in the evening on CNN.com, Kerry was expected to get 56.04%, Bush 41.83% and Nader 2.13% of the vote.

The actual tallies (available at uselectionatlas.org) are:
Kerry 52.92
Bush 46.24
Nader .54
Other .3

This represents a Bush shift of 7.53% Rather substantial, wouldn't you say. New Jersey, in fact, votes almost entirely on electronic voting machines. Can you say "stolen election"?

Here's the link, but you have to scroll way down until you hit the Nov. 2nd posts from election night... http://americablog.blogspot.com/2004_11_01_americablog_archive.html

[genieroze]

1. I'm from NJ and I have been saying this for months. IMHO Most of the

votes were stolen from Ocean County NJ who was up 10 points for * from the 2000 election. Ocean County is run by Republicans. Every town is Ocean County went for * , even the large minority ones. Towns like Lakewood, Manchester, and South Toms River never should have carried *.

[davidgmills]

4. On another board we are discussing class action suits

and also a re-exit poll to get a more accurate or confirming exit poll.

I have mentioned NJ as a good place to start.

Don't know much about the state make up of dems and repubs.

Can you enlighten on national and state level?

What is population? Need to know for numbers of re-exit poll sample size.

[genieroze]

7. Here are some stats

election results
http://www.state.nj.us/lps/elections/electionshome.html

I'm still looking for population stats for 2004

[davidgmills]

11. What are you doing electing so many

Republicans to the House of Reps? Fraud? But their margins were huge.

I expect that kind of thing down here in the South but it is so depressing to see it up North as well.

Are your senators dems or reps?

Saw that 3.6 mil voted.

[genieroze]

15. Our Senators are Dems

[rdmccur]

18. Is there any data broken down by precinct

and in EXCEL format?

[Carolab]

5. Maybe you could contact uscountvotes.org

They have been compiling precinct data nationwide. They might have Ocean County precinct data and you could compare precinct data vs. demographics vis a vis other counties/precincts with similar demographic data.

[ottozen]

2. Theft is an art

[aquart]

3. Who says Republicans don't support the arts?

They've perfected this one.

[berniew1]

6. Vote fraud and suppression of minority precincts vote in N. Jersey

http://www.flcv.com/njersey.html

and worse in New York City
http://www.flcv.com/NewYork.html

[peacetalksforall]

8. Blatant versus man-date theft.

There was blatant theft in swing states.
There was man-date theft in others so that the cabal could make that claim.

Don't let anyone get away with that claim.

And don't forget that the cpn's were accomplices. They hired the polling companies who manipulated the results. Theft accomplices usually go to jail.

[Smirking_Chimp]

9. Yes I'm from Jackson NJ and voted on Sequoia AVC Edge.

I don't trust those machines, we will vote absentee from now on.

[Smirking_Chimp]

25. Also they changed the polling place.

2000 election it was the "Knights of Columbus" building, in 2002, they switched it to the Firehouse.

[RaulVB]

10. Well, that explains New Jersey! (n/t)

[bunny planet]

12. I felt like this was going to happen going into the election.

It made me very nervous that the Republicans kept mentioning New Jersey as being 'in play.' I was worried that they would try and steal it outright, but it looks like they just shaved votes here, only because it would have been too suspicious to take the state outright. I would love it if we could use information in a blue state to prompt a real investigation of what went on in other states, like NM and Ohio.

[understandinglife]

14. Look no further than Snohomish County WA

http://www.votersunite.org/takeaction/mediaSnohomishCounty.htm

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=283992&mesg_id=283992

And, earlier posts at DU are also available on Snohomish and Yakima.

Peace.

[ClintCooper2003]

20. Yeah, that made me worried too. With right-wing puketards like...

Quippiniac University making up bogus pre-election poll numbers to make it look like New Jersey was closer than it was.

[understandinglife]

13. Over 30M used vapor ballots.

To have a 3M 'mandate' the shift would only have to be 1.5M. Interesting that most everywhere we have data, we have on avg ~ 5% better for Bush than Kerry. The arithmetic is simple; so was programming a sufficient number of 'randomly' distributed (precinct level) vapor-devices to create the 1.5M shift. Mix in a bunch of disenfranchisement (mostly as a 'smoke screen' because 'the total votes wouldn't swing it for Kerry' -- isnt that the mantra we've been hearing), particularly in places like FL and OH, and it's a breeze stealing elections and having sufficient 'margin' to make it look like legit and have that oh so important 'mandate.'

"Bush Owns It; Let's Purge It - Now"

[genieroze]

16. Let me tell you something, NJ pays the most in fed taxes and gets

the least bang for it's buck. With * talking about taking away deductions for state taxes, property taxes and mortgage interest, those jerks who did vote for * will be pissed as hell. We pay high state taxes because we don't get much federal aid, and the same goes for property taxes. Our housing prices are through the roof and most people have a huge mortgage. Our taxes will literally double in this state but I'm sure the transplanted butt picker turnips from the south who live in south Jersey will blame the Dem's for it. When my husband went to vote before he went to work he said the pubs were there watching the votes (wearing Bush buttons). After he voted for Kerry the guy went behind the machine and did something and said it's fixed to one of the other workers. One of our pub councilmen was voting and after he got done nobody went behind the machine and did a thing. My husband is a registered independent, they didn't do that to me but I'm a registered Democrat. My husband who never wears a tinfoil hat, said something stinks. He was really pissed off. I registered my two kids Democrat.

[understandinglife]

17. No argument from me (n/t)

[fearnobush]

19. NJ was hacked... Not for EV's but to pad the Chimps National numbers.

I know people who live in Ocean Co who were turned away from their polling place due to bogus claims like there name was not on the books etc. These are folks who always voted in those same places. They were sent directly to the court house and after a 4 hour wait were given provisional ballots (Doubt they were ever counted). Ocean Co. is a prime place to catch the bastards.

[davidgmills]

21. kick

[ClintCooper2003]

22. kick

[yurbud]

23. Wouldn't this be a RICO suit?

With complicity between government officials and private companies?

[bemis12]

24. I knew it!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/nj_polls.html

Every last pre-election poll- WRONG. They only had Kerry winning by 5-10 points on the average.

The actual vote count- WRONG. They only had him winning by 7.

The exit poll- RIGHT. Makes sense to me.