2004 NEP: Dem 38/ Rep 35/ Indep 27: Kerry 50.69%, Bush 47.77%

[TruthIsAll]

13,047 respondents,
randomly selected,
1.0% MOE


               HORIZONTAL		WEIGHTED		
PARTY ID	
     MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem 	38%	9%	90%	1%	3.4%	34.2%	0.4%
Rep 	35%	92%	7%	0%	32.2%	2.5%	0.0%
Ind	27%	45%	52%	2%	12.2%	14.0%	0.5%
	100%				47.77%	50.69%	0.92%
				
Probability: Poll(47.77%) to vote (50.73%): 0.00000000329447

         ********* 1 in 303,538,508 ************

Prob = 1 - NORMDIST (.5073,.4777, .01/1.96, TRUE)






 
 

[Wabbajack]

1. What's the "E"

in that number mean?

[Goldeneye]

3. Its the power symbol.

It means 3.29447 to the negative 9th power.

[Wabbajack]

4. Huh?

Negative 9th power? Mathy make my head hurt.

[Goldeneye]

6. It means the same thing as

1 in 303,538,508

[AllegroRondo]

7. It means kick the decimal nine places to the left

it keeps from having to write out a ton of zeros.

3.29447E-9 == .00000000329447

[Joe Chi Minh]

8. I could

never get far enough for it to hurt....

[alexisfree]

2. kick!!!!!!!!!!!

********* 1 in 303,538,508 ************

[papau]

5. USAToday says release of data will be to Media only!

Will the 1,600-member American Association for Public Opinion Research ever see a copy? Or will they simply distribute training materials for midcareer journalists and have its members spread the word at conferences and in newsrooms where they're invited that their data is only valid outside the US or if the GOPer is "winning". Or will they simply note that a 3% MOE on a 52-48 result only means that 95% of the time the race results will be between 55%-45% and 49-51%?
.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2005-01-17-exit-poll-report_x.htm

Exit pollsters to release election report to media

By Mark Memmott, USA TODAY
This week, the firms that produced exit polls of voters last November will tell the news organizations that paid them what, if anything, they think went wrong.
The surveys of voters as they left polling places led to widespread speculation on Election Day that Sen. John Kerry was sweeping President Bush out of office. But whether voters will ever know what happened remains unclear.

Edie Emery, a spokeswoman for the six-member media consortium that paid for the exit polls, says representatives from ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, NBC and the Associated Press want to review the report before making any decisions about what to make public.

The behind-closed-doors delivery of the report could come as soon as today. Because the report's conclusions might not be made public, the report is unlikely to appease critics who say the six media companies have moved too slowly to release information collected in the exit polls and have said too little about possible problems with those surveys.

"It's amazing to me that there's even a possibility that the report won't be released to the public," says Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "There was a major national controversy involving the integrity of the news organizations and of the polling firms involved."<snip>

[NationalEnquirer]

9. Can you explain this a but to a dummy like me?

What does this say, that probability that Bush got the percentage of the vote that was counted was something like, well, something vanishingly small? :)

[Goldeneye]

10. You've pretty much got it.

What it means, is that the chances of drawing a sample that gave Kerry 50.69% of the vote, when nationally Bush was really winning with 51% (don't know the exact final Bush percentage), is 1 in 303,538,508.

[eek]

11. pardon me for outta the loopness..

I have not checked in on the exit polls saga lately.

Truth is All, are these new calculations? Are these the figures that the media wants to review (ie check with kkkarl rove) before ddecideing to go to air?

Sorry if all this is way discussed already; I'm trying to get up to speed.

[TruthIsAll]

13. From National Exit Poll on the WP site and latest vote count.

The key driver: Dem 38%, Repub 35% agrees with prior elections.

As do percentages who voted for Kerry and Bush.

[TruthIsAll]

12. The final Bush tally is 50.73%..n/t

.

[NationalEnquirer]

14. Ah thanks!

I figured it meant something like that. So its something like 1 in 300 MILLION! Wow...

[TruthIsAll]

15. To win 50.73%, Bush needs 35.0% Dem / 39.0% Repub

For Bush to get 50.73%, it would have to be 35.0% Dem/39.0%
Repub 
 
How is that possible?
In the last 3 elections, the Dems had 39%.
Why would they not do as well this time?

PARTY ID	MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Democrat 	35.0%	9%	90%	1%	3.2%	31.5%	0.4%
Republican 	39.0%	92%	7%	0%	35.9%	2.7%	0.0%
Independent	26.0%	45%	52%	2%	11.7%	13.5%	0.5%
	100%				      50.73%	47.75%	0.87%