Red Shift Updated: Electoral Vote Weighted Exit Poll Deviations

[TruthIsAll]

Since a state's electoral vote is linearly related to its voting population, by multiplying the EV by the percentage exit poll deviation we can determine which states provided the biggest Red Shift to Bush in terms of the popular vote.

NY is at the top the list, followed by FL, PA, OH and NC.

Summing the EV*Pct totals for all the states:
Bush: 1276
Kerry: 97

[super simian]

1. kick n/t

[MadAsHellNewYorker]

2. are you suggesting that

there was election fraud in NY as well?

I believe FL, PA, OH, and NC were all cases of fraud, so to see NY in front of them, makes me wonder if there wasn't fraud here too. I mean, a "blue state" that could help pad bush's popular vote, oh 2 million votes or so? I dunno, its late and im thinking aloud...:tinfoilhat:

[genieroze]

3. I know NJ was, we have all electronic voting. n/t

[understandinglife]

4. WA is a 'blue state' and check the red shift and then read about...

...Snohomish County here:

http://www.votersunite.org/takeaction/mediaSnohomishCounty.htm
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

And, we've reported info on Yakima County WA, as well, here at DU.

Over 30M used vapor ballots were launched into the ether on 2 Nov 2004. To have a 3M 'mandate' the shift would only have to be 1.5M. Interesting that most everywhere we have data, we have on avg ~ 5% better for Bush than Kerry. The arithmetic is simple; so was programming a sufficient number of 'randomly' distributed (precinct level) vapor-devices to create the 1.5M shift. Mix in a bunch of disenfranchisement (mostly as a 'smoke screen' because 'the total votes wouldn't swing it for Kerry' -- isnt that the mantra we've been hearing), particularly in places like FL and OH, and it's a breeze stealing elections and having sufficient 'margin' to make it look like legit and have that oh so important 'mandate.'

ONWARD BUSH OPPOSITION

[MadAsHellNewYorker]

7. this article is very interesitng....

but the du link is 404 not found

[understandinglife]

12. Here's the correct DU link;

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=283992&mesg_id=283992


ONWARD BUSH OPPOSITION

[TruthIsAll]

5. I just crunched the numbers...and that's what came out.

A 4.6% move in NY is about 340,000 votes.

[MadAsHellNewYorker]

6. so the fraud could even be wider spread

or im reading way too into this

[MadAsHellNewYorker]

8. for some reason, i can't edit my reply so....

on edit: the Snohomish County irregularities seem pretty convincing

[Igel]

20. You can rig the lever machines, but the BOE and

techs have to be in on it.

And if the BOE is in on it, why bother to rig the machines?

It's also possible for the poll workers to fake the numbers (requiring two dems and two repubs to be in cahoots), but the BOE is likely to catch that during routine canvassing. It's also possible for poll workers to cast extra votes on the machines ... but that requires 2 dems/2 repubs to be in cahoots again, and the BOE is supposed to routinely check running voter totals per precinct against the machine count reported.

[euler]

9. Hate to quibble, but....

...your statement that "Since a state's electoral vote is linearly related to its voting population" is not exactly right. A states electoral vote is linearly related to its TOTAL population.

[TruthIsAll]

10. And the ratio voting pop/ total pop is virtually the same in all states.

So you are not quibbling.
Just confirming what is obvious without realizing you are doing so.

[rhite5]

11. My suspicians are the same, TIA. The media stumbled all

over themselves "explaining" the Bush popular vote size. "Single women voted unexpectedly for Bush", "the predicted high turnout of first time voters and students did not materialize" , "Hispanics failed to turn out as expected" , "'Values' were the determining factor and people wanted to protect their definition of marriage"

Those of us who worked on GOTV knew these statements were not true.

Then they stopped using those explanations and got into convoluted talk about EXIT POLLS -- discrediting them and totally confusing the issue.

Hundreds of thousands of votes could have been "borrowed" from the bigger Blue states without anyone noticing, all in order to produce the "Popular vote Mandate."

Too bad the Washington State recount of the governor's race did not also count votes at the top of the ticket. (That was the only REAL recount done.) It would have provided some actual evidence.

[k8conant]

13. Just a caveat on the linear relation:

every state gets 2 votes (for its senators). So the relation would be based on electoral votes minus 2 (EV-2). TIA, have you figured that at all?

[TruthIsAll]

14. No, I have not. Its just a ballpark indicator. I could have calculated

the exact number of vote deviations based on the actual vote and percent deviations. In any case, I don't think the relative numbers would change much.

It might make more sense to show the total votes (in millions) which deviated, by state.

[fooj]

15. Maybe I should work on being a bit more realistic.

Good doesn't always triumph over evil! Deceive, deceive, deceive...I'm at a loss...

[TruthIsAll]

16. Eventually, it does. Even if it's too late. n/t

.

[Peace Patriot]

17. I just took a glance at one set of numbers in one county in CA...

...and it seems to lend credence to the notion that the vote stealing via secret source code was nationwide, but maybe not the same % everywhere (seems to be evidence they pretty much wrapped it up on the east coast, but with such a big Kerry reg & GOTV drive--new reg nationwide was Dem 57% vs. Rep 41%--low Bush approval rating, etc., they were taking no chances, and activating almost every backup plan).

San Bernardino County

Bush 55.4%
Kerry 43.6%

Senate
Barbara Boxer (lib woman, hated by the rightwing) - 49.8%
Bill Jones (rightwing, anti-choice) - 45.4%


John F. Kerry Democratic 227,789 43.6
George W. Bush Republican 289,306 55.4

Barbara Boxer Democratic 251,776 49.8
Bill Jones Republican 229,527 45.4

So, what these numbers seem to mean is that something like 20,000 voters voted for Bush and Boxer--meaning that, if these were all real votes for Bush, a voter who voted for Bush, and had a choice of a fem lib woman, hated by the rightwing, and a rightwing, anti-choice, white male, for Senate, chose the femlib woman.

Am I right? How could Boxer pull that many more votes than Kerry, with the choices as stark as that?

Now, I can imagine SOME Republican women voting for choice, but I can't imagine THAT MANY voting for Boxer, because she's pro-choice, or because she's a woman, and then voting for Bush. A Bush/Boxer vote is pretty crazy.

I suspect that that 20,000 vote difference between Boxer and Kerry--or some good portion of it--were votes stolen from Kerry and given to Bush. (There would have to be some precinct level work, and disclosure of vote tabulator source code, to prove it.)

I also happen to know that the Dem reg and GOTV drive was unusually intense in this county (which used to be a big Dem labor/Hispanic county, and always did have a rightwing element but apparently has had more rightwing encroachment lately).

Am I reading these numbers right? That's sure what this looks like to me. Bush vote stealing.

Overall in the state, Boxer beat the pants off of Jones (so to speak) 57.8% to 37.8%, and Kerry beat Bush 54.4% vs. 44.4%. The SB County percentages are not consistent proportionally with Boxer outvoting Kerry statewide. Boxer drew 7% more than Kerry in SB, but outdrew him by only 3.4% statewide. What accounts for this? A special hatred of John Kerry in San Bernardino County?--which is also strewn with scattered Republican Boxer lovers? Doesn't make any sense.

---------

The difference between the total Prez vote and total Senate vote is 35,792 (more votes for Prez). Even so, I think that 20,000+ vote difference between Boxer and Kerry must mean Republican or Bush votes for Boxer.

Somebody help me out here. Am I right?

[bleever]

18. Yes: nobody voted Bush/Boxer. Did. Not. Happen.

I've been VERY suspicious of the Boxer/Kerry gap.

Best guess so far: default to * from straight dem ticket. This would probably be particular to one kind of voting machine.

How long til you get to half a million stolen votes in CA alone?

:wtf:

[cilla4progress]

19. Plausiblility

I think you make very plausible arguments, and I appreciate your other posts as well. Thank you, PP!

[KingoftheJungle]

21. Yeah I did this analysis in every CA county a while ago...

Same thing happened all over the place. And you are correct, there is no way in hell that that many bush voters simultaneously vote for boxer. Did...not...happen.

But at the same time, it did. Know what I mean? *wink*

I can send you my shitty excel spreadsheet that lists all the differences between every county. email me at [e-mail]

Speaking of which, whatever happened to Geo and the CA investigation?

[KingoftheJungle]

22. just for *kicks*