More exit polls from Americablog.org - from the DNC

[ClintCooper2003]

The following is a post as it appeared on election day:

"Latest update
by John in DC - 11/2/2004 06:35:13 PM

From http://direland.typepad.com/, I'm told - no time to verify this, posting it raw. JOHN

November 02, 2004
ELECTION DAY

4:56PM From a source at the Democratic National Committee, numbers that are two hours old (but that contradict in some respects the numbers earlier from Daily Kos and Drudge):

Colorado - Kerry 48.7 - Bush 50.8
Florida - Kerry 51.7 - Bush 48.1
Iowa - Kerry 50 - Bush 50
Maine - Kerry 55 - Bush 44.4
Michigan - Kerry 51.5 - Bush 47.7
Minnesota - Kerry 58.5 - Bush 40.2
New Hampshire - Kerry 57.9 - Bush 41.4
New Mexico - Kerry 50.2 - Bush 48.8
Ohio - Kerry 52.2 - Bush 47.8
Pennsylvania - Kerry 59 - Bush 40
Wisconsin - Kerry 52.6 - Bush 47.3
Arkansas - Kerry 44.5 - Bush 55
New Jersey - Kerry 56.4 - Bush 43.2

....in addition, that excellent Wisconsinite John Stauber (whose books you should read) reports within the hour that Wisconsin Democratic headquarters tells him Kerry is up by 5 points in the state, which comports with the above DNC Wisconsin number....

4:27 PM From a senior source in the AFL-CIO's political operation: Kerry is down by 1 point in Virginia and Nevada, and down by 5 against Bush in North Carolina.....and the betting on 16th St. at the fed's HQ is that Daschle is toast... (trying to get absolutely confirmable numbers directly from my usual spies at the TV networks is like pulling teeth this election cycle--security is VERY tight...)

4:03 PM -- From a senior source in the Kerry campaign, exit poll numbers they seem fairly confident about:

National : KERRY 50%, BUSH 49%
Florida: KERRY 51.7 BUSH 48.1
Michigan: KERRY 51.1 BUSH 47.7
Ohio: KERRY 52.2 BUSH 47.3

Again, take these numbers with a grain of salt (the Ohio results seems a bit high to me even in the rosiest scenario)......and Drudge has what he says are exit polls in some Senate races (consider the source in your evaluation--sometimes Matt has the goods, sometimes he doesn't--his earlier post of presidential numbers he picked up from Daily Kos). DRUDGE'S Senate exit polls: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4...

12:08 PM: In Fallujah, Le Monde is reporting "chaos and panic," as 65% of the 250,000 residents flee in anticipation of the U.S. led assault -- which most observers think will begin as soon as the polls in the States close...."


My own analysis:

1) Let's compare these exit polls to the tallied results...

EXIT POLLS ACTUAL TALLIES
Colorado - Kerry 48.7 - Bush 50.8 Kerry 47.04 Bush 51.71
Florida - Kerry 51.7 - Bush 48.1 Kerry 47.09 Bush 52.10
Iowa - Kerry 50 - Bush 50 Kerry 49.23 Bush 49.90
Maine - Kerry 55 - Bush 44.4 Kerry 53.57 Bush 44.58
Michigan - Kerry 51.5 - Bush 47.7 Kerry 51.23 Bush 47.81
Minnesota - Kerry 58.5 - Bush 40.2 Kerry 51.09 Bush 47.01
New Hampshire - Kerry 57.9 - Bush 41.4 Kerry 50.25 Bush 48.88
New Mexico - Kerry 50.2 - Bush 48.8 Kerry 49.05 Bush 49.84
Ohio - Kerry 52.2 - Bush 47.8 Kerry 48.71 Bush 50.81
Pennsylvania - Kerry 59 - Bush 40 Kerry 50.92 Bush 48.42
Wisconsin - Kerry 52.6 - Bush 47.3 Kerry 49.70 Bush 49.32
Arkansas - Kerry 44.5 - Bush 55 Kerry 44.55 Bush 54.31
New Jersey - Kerry 56.4 - Bush 43.2 Kerry 52.92 Bush 46.24

Notice how the exit polls roughly match the actual tallies in Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, and Arkansas. Notice how the other states have huge shifts. Of course, these numbers are coming from the DNC, but what if they're actually correct?

2) Notice how our government was planning a military operation in Fallujah right after our election. I guess they already knew who was going to win.