Independents and the 2004 election.

[Goldeneye]

Did Kerry win the independents? Did Kerry win the Undecideds? Are these the same thing? From what I understand, the election was supposed to go to whoever won the undecideds. From TIAs work it looks like Kerry won the independents by about 10 points. The independents made up a little under 30% of the voters.

What are the final results given by CNN on independents/undecideds? If they still have Kerry doing better among undecideds...then I'm totally lost.

[Goldeneye]

1. My post is getting lonely people

I'm looking for answers...

[TruthIsAll]

10. Kerry won the Indies by at least 52-45. And don't believe 37/37/26.

National Exit Poll

13,047 respondents,
randomly selected,
1.0% MOE


               HORIZONTAL		WEIGHTED		
PARTY ID	
     MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem 	38%	9%	90%	1%	3.4%	34.2%	0.4%
Rep 	35%	92%	7%	0%	32.2%	2.5%	0.0%
Ind	27%	45%	52%	2%	12.2%	14.0%	0.5%
	100%				47.77%	50.69%	0.92%
				
Probability: Poll(47.77%) to vote (50.73%): 0.00000000329447

         ********* 1 in 303,538,508 ************

Prob = 1 - NORMDIST (.5073,.4777, .01/1.96, TRUE)

[tridim]

2. Bush won the flipped bits in the hacked machines

and the millions of lost votes due to voter suppression. That all you need to know.

[Goldeneye]

3. How the independents voted is important.

They can't say Bush won if their data still shows Kerry winning the independents by a good margin.

[shraby]

4. I'm an independent and I voted Kerry

[skids]

5. These were the final adjusted figures for independents:

...they claim about an even split in Kerry's favor.

party             B   K   N
Democrat (37%)    11% 89% 0%
Republican (37%)  93% 6%  0%
Independent (26%) 48% 49% 1%

The adjustment they had to make to fit the results was to inflate the relative number of republicans and/or to play with the percentage of party loyalty or the independent breakdown.

If you really want to get totally lost, look at the consequences that this adjustment had on another part of the poll, and do the math. I'd do the math for you, but it is much more fun to do it yourself. (Hint: you'll have to look up how many people voted in 2004, and how many people voted for Bush in 2000.)

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE IN 2000 	
Did Not Vote (17%) 45% 	54% 1%
Gore (37%)         10%  90% 0%
Bush (43%)         91%   9% 0%
Other (3%)         21%  71% 3%

Keep in mind that the whole point of a demographically based survey is that you are supposed to be able to get pretty close results by figuring out what groups were under-represented. After you do the math, ask why they can't.

[Goldeneye]

6. Dude...I don't have any idea how to do those calculations.

On edit is there a link for those numbers? I'm going to try and figure out the calculations.

[meganmonkey]

8. No need to calculate

if all you want are percentages - it is all right there.

The numbers in parentheses show what percent of voters overall were registered as Dem, Repuke, or Indie.

The rest of the numbers show what percent of each of those categories voted for each candidate.

[skids]

14. Yes there is... one multiplication....

...and one inequality.

Read above and consider which of one of the percentage values in the second set of numbers would go in an equation along with the number of total voters in 2004 and the number of votes Bush got in 2000.

[meganmonkey]

15. I was just looking at the first set

as it was most relevent to the posters question, if I recall...but now I see what math...sorry, i'm a doofus :P

[Goldeneye]

16. that's no problem...TIA explained it.

B-) :toast:

[skids]

13. links:

...as requested

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election%2C_2004#Overview

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0876793.html

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html#1064

[meganmonkey]

7. Independents and Undecideds are NOT the same thing

Independents are people who do not register as a member of any party, as far as their voter registration goes.

'Undecided's are people who hadn't decided who they were voting for at whatever point a poll was taken. Apparently there was a significant number of people who hadn't chosen who to vote for until the final days before the election. (people couldn't make up their minds that late in the game - :wtf: ??? )

An example - I am registered as an independent. I voted for Kerry, and I knew I was going to vote for Kerry before we knew who the candidate would even be for the Dems, so I was never considered 'undecided'.

Hopefully that helps clear up that distinction...

[LiveInHope]

9. I was watching CBS on election night

Dan Rather and Bob Schieffer were talking about how independents were breaking for Kerry by a pretty good margin: PA and OH 60 to 39, FL 60 to 38, NH 61 to 37. They said this was information from exit polls AND precinct captains. At that point I thought Kerry was a sure bet.

[Goldeneye]

11. So it makes no sense that Ohio

would have gone to Bush...right?

[LiveInHope]

12. Well, it sure doesn't make sense to me

Ed Bradley also said Ohio had 850,000 new voters, most of them from counties that Gore won in 2000.