Something is rotten in .... Florida.

[mzmolly]

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

Check out the category on the far right which shows the difference in expectation vs. so called turnout.

Phenominal differences. I am beginning to feel that this theory isn't so crazy after all. :(

[freetobegay]

1. Yea, Jeb Bushs soul!

[mzmolly]

2. That too!

;)

[alexisfree]

8. this guy?

[GRLMGC]

14. You know

the little mustache suits him, frighteningly enough.

[txindy]

3. That's it. Come to the light, mzmolly!

LOL! It hits us all at different points, but sooner or later something really reaches out and pounces. Hard to miss, sometimes. All of those Democrats supposedly stayed home in Florida -- but only the ones in precincts with op-scan machines. Riiiiiight.

[dave502d]

4. They told Jeb their might not be a chair at Thanksgiving in 2000.

Look like he'll be at the head of the table this year as he was in 2000.

[teach1st]

5. Well, maybe or maybe not

I compared selected OpScan counties with their 2000 election results. I selected a few counties with the highest pecentage of change from expected. The percentages between 2000 and 2004 don't seem to indicate anything in the way of fraud, especially given the percentage drop in Democratic registration in each county from 2000 to 2004, which nearly matches Bush's percentage increase. There could have been double fraud (2000 and 2004), but as discussed elsewhere, these probably document the voting habits of the Dixiecrat, who can vote Democratic locally, but Republican nationally.

http://ustogether.org/election04/FL2000.htm

2004 Baker County, FL (OpScan) had 9,955 total votes, 7,738 for Bush (78%).
Baker County is 70% registered Democratic in 2004.
2000 Baker County, FL (OpScan) had 8,154 total votes, 5,610 for Bush (69%).
Baker County is 83% registered Democratic in 2000.
2000 to 2004 change for Bush: 9%

2004 Calhoun County, FL (OpScan) had 5,961 total votes, 3,780 for Bush (63%).
Calhoun County is 82% registered Democratic in 2004.
2000 Calhoun County, FL (OpScan) had 5,174 total votes, 2,873 for Bush (56%).
Calhoun County is 88% registered Democratic in 2000.
2000 to 2004 change for Bush: 8%

2004 Dixie County, FL (OpScan) had 6440 total votes, 4,433 for Bush (69%).
Dixie County is 78% registered Democratic in 2004.
2000 Dixie County, FL (OpScan) had 4,666 total votes, 2,697 for Bush (58%).
Dixie County is 86% registered Democratic in 2000.
2000 to 2004 change for Bush: 11%

2004 Franklin County, FL (OpScan) had 5,930 total votes, 3,742 for Bush (59%).
Franklin County is 78% registered Democratic in 2004.
2000 Franklin County, FL (OpScan) had 4,644 total votes, 2,454 for Bush (52%).
Franklin County is 81% registered Democratic in 2000.
2000 to 2004 change for Bush: 6%

2004 Hamilton County, FL (OpScan) had 5,065 total votes, 2,786 for Bush (55%).
Hamilton County is 79% registered Democratic in 2004.
2000 Hamilton County, FL (OpScan) had 3,964 total votes, 2,146 for Bush (54%).
Hamilton County is 87% registered Democratic in 2000.
2000 to 2004 change for Bush: <1%

2004 Lafayette County, FL (OpScan) had 3,325 total votes, 2,460 for Bush (74%).
Lafayette County is 83% registered Democratic in 2004.
2000 Lafayette County, FL (OpScan) had 2,505 total votes, 1,670 for Bush. (67%)
Lafayette County is 90% registered Democratic in 2000.
2000 to 2004 change for Bush: 7%

[txindy]

9. And they all just happen to live in counties with op-scan machines?

Or were the polls trending to show that Dixiecrats have shifted away from voting repub for national office and the op-scan machines found their way to those counties? I'd really like to know that.

This chart shows the differences in the voting machines by country:
http://verifiedvoting.org/verifier/map.php?&topic_string=5std&state=Florida

I don't know. If I was Jeb, I'd try padding my repub-trending counties rather than risk the laser-like attention that has been focused on Dem. counties. He knows those numbers will be picked apart. Hide the extra votes in plain sight, as it were. In the republican counties.

Edited to add: If these Dixiecrats have trended republican in the past, I wonder why those 'Expected Results' columns don't reflect that? Look at Liberty County, for example. They 'expected' 237 votes for republicans, but received 1,927! The percentage changes from 'expected' to 'actual' were 712.3% republican and -59.9% Democrat. Ummm, no. No way.

BUT! With the counties using e-Touch voting plus having massive lines due to successful GOTV efforts, no huge changes in percentages were noted. Nothing over 52%, anyway. But the op-scan counties show 26 counties with percentage changes over 100%. They have GOT to be kidding.

[They_LIHOP]

12. I don't see why they couldn't have cheated both times...

Do YOU see some reason to believe that they didn't simply stick with what worked in 2000 ... If nobody caught it back then, with ALL that scrutiny? Shheeee-at?!? I'd do it if I were them. Thank Gaia I'm not, but I'm just saying.

Now, I've been doing a much more thorough analysis than this one here (though its a great starting point, THANKS to it's creator!), but before I go into my 20th hour or so of work here, DOES ANYBODY KNOW FOR sure that the numbers given as 'facts' on this sheet actually ARE truthful facts?

I'm going to tell you right now, statistically speaking, to have THIS level of discrepancy when comparing the behaviour of two roughly equal sized populations within the same state seems nigh-on impossible.

You gotta do some 'deeper' looking to truly see how glaringly F***-ed up this FL sitch really is, trust me. Once you figure out how to massage the raw data in a way that you can get some valid 'comparable' statistics on each 'half', once you've added 'control' to your experiment so that you are really comparing apples to apples as much as possible, I'm confident you WILL come to realization that the data for the op-scan machines are WAY WAY WAY outside the realm of 'possible without a MAJOR calculation or data error coming into play...'.

That's why I question the validity of the numbers we're starting with.

But before I claim I'm sure of it, I'm NEED to know if these are independently confirmed by anyone? Once I know that, I'm going to need to compare some of my stats to those seen in a bunch of other states, take some standard deviations, calculate some t-scores, etc.

I hope to have a couple .xls files done tonight.

CAN ANYBODY HOST A PAGE WITH MY EXTENDED ANALYSIS OF THESE NUMBERS? Privatemail me.

MY EXTENDED ANALYSIS IS GOING TO TRIP YOU GUYS OUT!!!
(I've got pretty damn solid evidence that Kerry was robbed by nearly 300,000 votes in the optical-scan areas. You have to remember that a sample size of ONE HALF of a given population generally yields some pretty damn tight 'predictive ranges', and high confidence.

ONE LAST QUESTION: Are these two populations WILDLY different for some reason, i.e the counties in the op-scan districts are entirely 'inland' and the eVoters are virtually all on the coast? The one thing I really don't know is the locations and demographics of the areas. That might account for a BIT of the variability, but there's just no way it covers it ALL no matter HOW divergent these groups of people (if that's a valid suggestion: the two groups can be counted on to be VERY VERY different from another - anybody know if they can?) might be, because there's ways of factoring out that piece of the puzzle pretty nicely...

[txindy]

15. Here's the map of voting machines used by county

As far as I can see, only two counties using touchscreens are inland. Other than that, there are no geographic differences in counties with or without op-scan machines. http://verifiedvoting.org/verifier/map.php?&topic_string=5std&state=Florida

Looking forward to your analysis!

Edited to add: It appears the op-scan machines are primarily in republican counties. That's as far as I can tell, anyway. Red (or touchscreen) counties are Democratic, I believe. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

[Faun Otter]

26. I think you are correct

I have been reading the analysis of vote swings versus registration. I think people are barking up the wrong tree to a degree. I mapped vote swings by county and the creeping Dixecrat swing in rural counties shows up well. There are islands of Democrats in cities and university counties.

This approach did lead me to examine Collier versus Broward more closely. I think these should show similar Republican and democrat swings due having the same machines, similar demographics and similar spatial position. However, these adjoining counties show the same Rep vote increase but one has 46% and the other has 16% vote growth for the Democrats.

This looks out of line and cannot be explained by the creeping growth of rural support for the Republicans. The map helps visualize the placement of the various high swing counties. Hardee looks suspect but the panhandle/armpit counties are clustered in a way that makes sense.

I have posted my map on the Bartcop forum and it can be viewed by going to this link and clicking the icon at the bottom of my post.

http://bartcopnation.com/dc/dcboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=2&topic_id=336713

[Pirate Smile]

6. Ok, that is some crazy sh@t! WTH! Does Olberman have that

chart? If not, he needs it.

[GeoK]

7. Holy crap!

This just makes me sick... :puke:

[Bush was AWOL]

10. Another thing about Florida that I haven't seen mentioned

Why did Castor poll so much better than Kerry? I don't believe that she did for a second. Martinez likely got 80-90% of the latino and Cuban vote, right? One would think that a lot of Latino's and Cubans voted for Martinez even if they were Democrats. So, why did Bush do so much better than Martinez? Why did Castor do so much better than Kerry? Doesn't make sense to me.

[txindy]

11. Excellent point

That race isn't the only odd one at the Congressional level, either. Bunning in KY was getting walloped, yet he made a startling comeback at the end of the night. Coors lost to Salazar, but Colorado didn't go for Kerry? It doesn't make sense. So much of this doesn't.

They over-reached. Whoever did this to the tabulators over-reached. There's too much data available to derive any other conclusion but that multiple questions remain in a number of states. Geez, did they hack the numbers without a spreadsheet, so failed to realize how far off the results would look? Good. :evilgrin:

[PATRICK]

13. If they were losing the HAD to overreach

somewhere and possibly hugely. They had to lift from unwatched sources. They to avoid like the plague any state that had a paper recount, especially a possibly significant state. They had to be careful in Kerry states where closely watched races for big candidates(Obama) had an unchanging and unsurmountable spread.

Having to overreach, pulling out all stops, having to be overcautious in avoiding recounts, having to rush the concession...remember that Bush corralling all the reporters(never done before) and trying to get the NETWORKS to concede?

When Bush enters the Malebolgia(Dante: Inferno X) they will hand out clothespins to the other damned sufferers.

I said that before the election. It was obvious in 2000 they would have to presume they had to outdo past cheating. It was obvious invisible BBV was the core. No false security after 911 for EARNED votes. They acted as a popular mandate from the polls didn't matter. They cheated under cover of some reformed GOTV and DNC weakness.

[siliconefreak]

16. and also

Remember how Bunning made his victory speech way before he was even close to being called the winner? Chris Matthews seemed pretty perplexed by that when it happened. Interesting that Bunning KNEW he was going to win even while he was still behind.

[txindy]

18. Exactly right. I wonder how many other races worked out so well.

If we can have them take a closer look at the presidential election, though, we've got time to look much more closely at the races below that. We have to give priority to the presidential race. Everything else hinges on it. Having said that, though, we do need to document our suspicions about the other races while they are still fresh in our memories.

[fizzana]

17. Barking up the wrong tree here

A couple of observations on the numbers from the ustogether.com website.

The counties where there is the greatest disparity between registration and voting are all rutral north Florida mainly white, conservative counties where people were Democrats 30 years ago but haven't voted for the Democratic Party in over 20 years. These counties have been solidly Republican since the 1970's and every GOP Presidential candidate has won those counties in the past 25 years.

Go look at the map and see for yourself where they are. They are in the rural north which is more like Mississippi & Alabama than Florida.

Secondly if you add up the total votes cast in all the counties where the expected Dem votes were minus 50% or more, total about 110,000 votes - far less than the final margin of the election.

Flame me if you must but chasing unsubstantiated stories like this makes our case (if there is a case) a lot harder to prove.

[txindy]

19. I don't doubt the history

I just find it endlessly fascinating that counties such as Liberty increased their republican voting expectations by over 700% this year while the major urban counties (with huge GOTV efforts that paid off) came nowhere close to such an increase.

[fizzana]

22. They did not increase expectations by 700%

No-one expected the registered Democrats in these counties to vote for Kerry. People in these counties are Republicans who happen to be registered Democrats because of the nature of the politics in the South 30-40 years ago.

This whole argument is a complete red herring that quite honestly destroys any potential for a real case that there might have been fraud in this election.

[txindy]

23. Then I'd love to see their exit polls by county

Unless Dixiecrats lie en masse, which I seriously doubt, the exit polls will be reflective of what the actual vote should read.

Is there exit poll data by county for Florida?

[fizzana]

24. A lot of those Dixiecrat counties have 10,000 or less registered

voters. If you add up all the votes cast in the counties where Democratis votes cast are les than 50% of expected based on original party registration you get about 100,000 votes in total or about 1/4 of the final margin in Florida.

Most of those counties have between 4,000 and 12,000 registered voters in total so it's more than likely no exit polls were even done in some of them.

All you have to do is go back and look at the numbers from 2000 and you will see that the numbers are virtually the same. It just seems highly improbable that the numbers were fixed in exactly the same way in about 15 counties in both 2000 and 2004.

Take a look on the map and you will see that these counties mostly border Souther Georgia and Alabama, neither of which could be Democratic strongholds by any sense of the imagination.

[Magginkat]

20. mzmolly, I posted this in another thread

Since I used the charts above to make my charts, I hope that you don't mind that this is posted two times.

I have several pages of graphs on my web site that shows what appears to be an "miracle" for republicans. I took a chart posted at

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

and converted it to show how many more votes were recorded for republicans than there were registered republicans. It's a miracle folks. All over Florida, in county after county it looks as though the equivalent of 100% of all registered republicans voted plus they convinced thousands of Democrats & independents to vote for Bush.

In the county where I reside (Escambia) the following results were posted:

Total registered Voters 189,833 Total Votes Cast----- - 142,895

Registered Republican- 43.8% = 83,147 - Rep votes cast -- 93,311

Registered Democrat -40.7% = 77,262 - Dem votes cast -- 48,207

Others - - 1377

The results defy all logic.

If you can believe your eyes, Republicans not only had the equivalent of 100% of all registered republicans casting a vote but apparently 10,164 Democrats or other parties opted to also vote for Bush in Escambia County! This is the Bible belt that I live in but there's no way in hell that even they could pull off this crap at such an amazing rate.

In county after county it's like that and this is Optical Scanners people with a paper trail!

I would appreciate it if any and all people here will check these numbers and tell me if I have screwed up. It does not seem possible that someone in an official position is not screaming his head off.

Start with:
http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

The bar (charts below) represent the difference between the number of voters registered and the number who voted. The negative numbers means that more people voted republican than were registered.



http://www.granniesagainstgeorge.us/diebold_magic_anyon...

http://www.granniesagainstgeorge.us/floridaAmazingElect...

http://www.granniesagainstgeorge.us/florida2.htm

http://www.granniesagainstgeorge.us/florida3.htm

Let me know at [e-mail] if you can confirm or dispute these charts. I admit that I am an amateur with Excel but I think my charts agree with the information available from the election results.

[sherilocks]

21. Two more things to consider- Just a few more nails

Optiscan was in use for many years in a few counties, like Volusia and Flagler. If you check their websites, the votes are fairly consistent with what you might expect. In Volusia, Kerry won and in Flagler * won, but it was close.

The inconsistencies are in counties where the otical scan equipment is new this year. More research would have to be done on this. But,comparing Dixiecrat counties by voter registration is futile. You have to go back over several voting cycles to see how people actually voted.

Another interesting fact is that I went back and checked to see if maybe an influx of new voters would have changed the way people vote in Broward County. In fact, from 2000 to 2004, Democratic registration increased by about 100,000 and Repub registration increased by about 20,000. Something doesn't add up here.

[EndElectoral]

25. Unbeleivable...and no one is reporting this..Thanks...very revealing

[Nightjock]

27. Welcome

to, as you described it yesterday, the "looney" left wing.
Just kidding. I always enjoy your point of view.... Just wanted to get in a little dig.

[mzmolly]

28. You misunderstood. I have always and will always remain open minded.

What my issue is is that people don't allow KERRY a different opinion. HE obviously DOESN'T believe the election was stolen.

That's my point. If were to respect all opinions, why not start with his.

:hi:

I don't think the idea of election fraud is "looney" I think the calls for Civil War with Kerry as our leader are. ;)

[progressivebydesign]

29. Here's what I'd like to do... This might work.

A County like, Hamilton, who experienced a 268%!!! Increase in Republican voters, and is a very small County with approx. 6k voters. I would LOVE if the Hamilton Democrats could put together a petition, affadavit of sorts, wherein Democrats that voted/voted Kerry, would attest to that fact. If one small county, like that, that showed a 268% increase for Republicans, and an 11% decrease for Democrats, would be an easy one to get the ball rolling.

[FW_]

30. .

Please don't take this the wrong way and attack me for this being my #2 post, but about some of those numbers in the various counties of Florida.

I live in Tallahassee and and am working on my Ph D in Florida's Political History. A lot of the counties in North Florida, such as Dixie, Hamilton, etc. have more registered democrats than republicans but there is a reason for this. These counties have Dixie-Crats not Democrats. These "democrats" haven't voted Democrat since Carter in 1976. Some may have voted for Clinton in 1992 but really they've been voting republican since. Trust me I've had to deal with them. They refuse to change their party registration but vote republican. It's disturbing but a reality. Remember this is the region that voted for Strom Thurmond in 1948, Wallace in 1968 and Florida voted for Wallace in the 1972 Democratic primary.

I'm not saying there isn't fraud in the rest of the state, trust me I believe there is in Broward, Dade and Palm Beach but I really think the #'s in North Florida are accurate.

[PatsFan2004]

31. Another stat to check out would be a comparison of races below

the top of the ticket. A Florida newspaper pointed out that in the 2000 election in certain DEM counties, the Repuke county clerk outpolled *, a seeming contradiction. If in this election, Kerry was outpolled by lesser DEM races, maybe the same kind of garbage is happening. Why would any sensible DEM vote a straight DEM ticket and then pick *?

[FW_]

32. Boyd

I just want to caution you again. Don't look at Boyd the Democrat from the 4th Congressional District in Florida. He won easily in North Florida in a district from Pensacola to Tallahassee which is largely republican. He won 65% of the vote while the Panhandle voted overwhelmingly for Bush. This can be decieving, but Boyd is a Democrat in name only. He was endorsed by the NRA and brags on his website that he votes more with Republicans in Congress than Democrats. I only voted for him because the alternative, Bev Kilmer is a right-wing fascist nut job.

[PatsFan2004]

33. Thanks for the candidate details. I guess general trends are

more reliable than specific counties.