Vote Skimming in FL Counties - Incremental Votes, Registrations - Graphs

[lostnfound]

Graph comparing vote growth to voter registration growth in two counties in Florida. The lower leg on each line represents votes and registrations in 2000; the upper leg shows the incremental change required to get to the current vote totals, and the incremental change in registrations. The upper segments point upward relative to the lower segment, which means disproportionately more votes going to Bush. The lower segment represents voters who cast their ballots in the 2000 election, most of whom are likely to vote the same way as last time -- dramatic shifts in such a large group could not go undetected (i.e., a president whose popularity is surging).

The point is that the supposed upsurge in Bush votes relative to Kerry would have necessitated extremely abnormal patterns of voting behavior (i.e., large numbers of Gore voters switching to Bush, independents falling very heavily towards Bush) or, more simply, vote rigging.



We can ask ourselves, "Is it technically POSSIBLE that this could happen?" TECHNICALLY possible, yes...but we also have to shut our eyes to everything else, like exit polls that didn't agree (fell short in NUMEROUS states, by the way), the most energized left-wing in (at least) 36 years, a president with falling approval ratings at 45%, the simultaneous lack of accountability in vote counting.

Graph below depicts top 9 Florida counties. All of these are suspect except Miami-Dade. Estimated total votes skimmed from these counties alone: 82,036; or a swing of 164,072.


The attached graphs use data I downloaded from the Florida Department of Election site. My hope is that this format makes the information more readily understood.

[qazplm]

1. well allow me to play devil's advocate,

lets assume it was fraud, arent these pretty much the counties most likely to go dem and the largest counties in Florida?

I mean if we are only going to swing about 150-200K votes to kerry's side max with this, then arent we still around 200K votes short?

(in other words if there was fraud it only turned a small Bush victory into a slightly larger one?)

Look fraud is possible, but so is simple computer error, and so is just that our turnout didnt match our registration but their's did.

I guess I want unassailable evidence before I jump into this.

[Village Idiot]

2. Get off the pipe.

We are talking about more than 150-200K votes. Take a look:

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

http://www.rubberbug.com/temp/Florida2004chart.htm

[lostnfound]

3. It's a 413,944 vote swing for Florida..

when you use the same approach on all 67 counties.

If you've tried to change anyone's mind about their politics, you must have noticed how hard it can be. I would believe that the GOTV efforts for evangelicals might have helped, but not across the board, urban and rural, largely Democratic and largely Republican counties.

And a good example of this is the Sequoia machine thread which I did the other day. Four counties line up as a 9-11% offset,the only ones with Sequoia equipment in the state with that software version.