NEP: WP 13,047 respondents (Kerry) > CNN 13,660 (Bush)

[TruthIsAll]

No commentary. 
Just a big ????
You go figure it out.
I'll just crunch the numbers.

National Exit Poll
CNN:
13,660 Respondents								
Updated: Nov3 at 2:04PM											
Wash Post: 
13,047 Respondents							
Nov 3 1:00 AM

				
GENDER						WEIGHTED		
13660	Vert	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Bush	Kerry 	Nader
Male 	46%	55%	44%	0		25.3%	20.2%	0.0%
Female	54%	48%	51%	0		25.9%	27.5%	0.0%
	100%					51.2%	47.8%	0.0%
								
13047								
Male 	46%	52%	47%	1%		23.9%	21.6%	0.5%
Female	54%	45%	54%	1%		24.3%	29.2%	0.5%
	100%					48.2%	50.8%	1.0%
								
								
AGE								
13660	Vert	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Bush	Kerry	Nader
18-29 	17%	45%	54%	0		7.7%	9.2%	0.0%
30-44 	29%	53%	46%	1%		15.4%	13.3%	0.3%
45-59 	30%	51%	48%	0		15.3%	14.4%	0.0%
60+	24%	54%	46%	0		13.0%	11.0%	0.0%
	100%					51.3%	48.0%	0.3%
								
13047								
18-29 	17%	43%	56%	1%		7.3%	9.5%	0.2%
30-44 	27%	50%	49%	1%		13.5%	13.2%	0.3%
45-59 	30%	47%	51%	1%		14.1%	15.3%	0.3%
60+	26%	51%	48%	1%		13.3%	12.5%	0.3%
	100%					48.2%	50.5%	1.0%
								
INCOME								
13660	Vert	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Bush	Kerry	Nader
0- 15	8%	36%	63%	0		2.9%	5.0%	0.0%
15-30	15%	42%	57%	0		6.3%	8.6%	0.0%
30-50	22%	49%	50%	0		10.8%	11.0%	0.0%
50-75	23%	56%	43%	0		12.9%	9.9%	0.0%
75-100	14%	55%	45%	0		7.7%	6.3%	0.0%
100-150	11%	57%	42%	1%		6.3%	4.6%	0.1%
150-200	4%	58%	42%	0		2.3%	1.7%	0.0%
200+	3%	63%	35%	0		1.9%	1.1%	0.0%
	100%					51.0%	48.1%	0.1%
								
13047								
0-15	9%	33%	66%	1%		3.0%	5.9%	0.1%
15-30	15%	39%	59%	1%		5.9%	8.9%	0.2%
30-50	22%	47%	52%	1%		10.3%	11.4%	0.2%
50-75 23%	53%	45%	1%		12.2%	10.4%	0.2%
75-100	13%	50%	49%	0%		6.5%	6.4%	0.0%
100-150	11%	53%	45%	2%		5.8%	5.0%	0.2%
150-200	4%	53%	47%	0%		2.1%	1.9%	0.0%
200+	3     58%	41%	1%		1.7%	1.2%	0.0%
	100%					47.5%	51.0%	0.9%
								
								
EDUCATION						WEIGHTED		
13660	Vert	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Bush	Kerry	Nader
No H.S.	4%	49%	50%	0		2.0%	2.0%	0.0%
H.S.	22%	52%	47%	0		11.4%	10.3%	0.0%
College 32% 	54%	46%	0		17.3%	14.7%	0.0%
CollGr26%	52%	46%	1%		13.5%	12.0%	0.3%
PostGr16%	44%	55%	1%		7.0%	8.8%	0.2%
	100%					51.2%	47.8%	0.4%
13047								
No H.S.	4%	47%	52%	1%		1.9%	2.1%	0.0%
H.S	22%	48%	51%	1%		10.6%	11.2%	0.2%
College	31%	51%	47%	1%		15.8%	14.6%	0.3%
CollGr26%	50%	48%	1%		13.0%	12.5%	0.3%
PostGr17%	40%	58%	2%		6.8%	9.9%	0.3%
	100%					48.1%	50.2%	1.2%
								
PARTY ID								
13660	Vert	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem	37%	11%	89%	0		4.1%	32.9%	0.0%
Repub	37%	93%	6%	0		34.4%	2.2%	0.0%
Ind	26%	48%	49%	1%		12.5%	12.7%	0.3%
	100%					51.0%	47.9%	0.3%
13047								
Dem	38%	9%	90%	1%		3.4%	34.2%	0.4%
Repub	35%	92%	7%	0%		32.2%	2.5%	0.0%
Ind	27%	45%	52%	2%		12.2%	14.0%	0.5%
	100%					47.8%	50.7%	0.9%
								
IDEOLOGY								
13660	Vert	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Bush	Kerry	Nader
Lib	21%	13%	85%	1%		2.7%	17.9%	0.2%
Mod	45%	45%	54%	0		20.3%	24.3%	0.0%
Con	34%	84%	15%	0		28.6%	5.1%	0.0%
	100%					51.5%	47.3%	0.2%
13407								
Lib	22%	12%	86%	1%		2.6%	18.9%	0.2%
Mod	45%	41%	57%	1%		18.5%	25.7%	0.5%
Con	33%	82%	16%	1%		27.1%	5.3%	0.3%
	100%					48.2%	49.9%	1.0%
RELIGION								
13660	Vert	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Bush	Kerry	Nader
Prot	53%	59%	40%	0		31.3%	21.2%	0.0%
Cath	27%	52%	47%	0		14.0%	12.7%	0.0%
Jewish	3%	25%	74%	0		0.8%	2.2%	0.0%
Other	7%	23%	74%	1%		1.6%	5.2%	0.1%
None	10%	31%	67%	1%		3.1%	6.7%	0.1%
	100%					50.8%	48.0%	0.2%
13047								
Prot	53%	56%	43%	1%		29.7%	22.8%	0.5%
Cath	27%	49%	50%	1%		13.2%	13.5%	0.3%
Jewish	3%	23%	77%	0%		0.7%	2.3%	0.0%
Other	7%	20%	75%	4%		1.4%	5.3%	0.3%
None	10%	29%	70%	1%		2.9%	7.0%	0.1%
	100%					47.9%	50.9%	1.2%
MILITARY								
13660	Vert	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Bush	Kerry	Nader
Yes 	18%	57%	41%	0		10.3%	7.4%	0.0%
No 	82%	49%	50%	0		40.2%	41.0%	0.0%
	100%					50.4%	48.4%	0.0%
13047								
Yes 	18%	55%	43%	1%		9.9%	7.7%	0.2%
No 	82%	46%	53%	1%		37.7%	43.5%	0.8%
	100%					47.6%	51.2%	1.0%

WHEN DECIDED								
13660	Vert	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Bush	Kerry	Nader
Today 	5%	45%	52%	1%		2.3%	2.6%	0.1%
3days	4%	42%	55%	1%		1.7%	2.2%	0.0%
Week	2%	51%	48%	0		1.0%	1.0%	0.0%
Month	10%	44%	54%	1%		4.4%	5.4%	0.1%
Before	79%	53%	46%	0%		41.9%	36.3%	0.0%
	100%					51.2%	47.5%	0.2%
13047								
Today 	6%	40%	53%	5%		2.4%	3.2%	0.3%
Last3	3%	41%	53%	4%		1.2%	1.6%	0.1%
LastWk	2%	51%	48%	1%		1.0%	1.0%	0.0%
LastMo	10%	38%	60%	1%		3.8%	6.0%	0.1%
Before	79%	50%	50%	0%		39.5%	39.5%	0.0%
	100%					48.0%	51.2%	0.5%
								

[still_one]

1. well the military still voted for him in spite of what he did to them

in the first term

let them eat the consequences, which they are

[Carolab]

15. These are exit polls not totals. n/t

[Vektor]

16. Interestingly,

The official tallies from the election regarded the military vote have never been released.

We all know the MSM would be letting us know loud and clear if Bush had gotten it.

Their silence says it all.

[TruthIsAll]

19. State exit poll totals (Kerry 50.8-48.0) matched NEP (Kerry 50.4-48.8)

The 51 state exit polls agree with the 13047 national, based on the characteristic weights. Some closer than others.

On average there was only a 0.40% difference.

Kerry (2-party):
Actual Vote: 59,085 (48.81%)
Exit Poll: 60,997 (50.39%)
Deviation: 1.912 million votes

Could it be they matched because they were both correct to begin with?

[TruthIsAll]

21. 2-Party Correction: State Kerry 50.4 - 49.6; NEP: Kerry 51.4 - 48.6 n/t

.

[nashuaadvocate]

2. Great post! More on discrepancies in sample-sizes at The Nashua Advocate.

Find the article here.

The News Editor
The Nashua Advocate

[Goldeneye]

3. nm

[TruthIsAll]

4. It means 613 respondents added to the original 13,047 changed the world nt

.

[euler]

10. I thought you said "No commentary"

You should have had stuck with that.

Well, you're not an exit polling expert, so you can hardly be expected to know anything about them.

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2005/01/fun_with_unweig.html

[Goldeneye]

12. What do you care?

I'm still confused. You said yourself that people will throw away the facts if they don't suit their purposes. Either you are doing that or we are. Either way, our brains are wired and somewhere objectivity is being thrown out the window. We believe what we believe and you believe what you believe. If we are wrong, we will look like fools. If we are right, then America has a serious problem that needs to be fixed. I happen to believe the neocons in power would have done anything to remain in power.


Another thing: Do you believe there was fraud in this election? If so, don't you think the exit polls should reflect it? If not, why, oh why do you hang out in this forum so much?

Since I read many of your articles, could you please read this?
http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=5501
In 2002 there were exit poll discrepancies that can't be explained by eager democratic voters, or self-righteous republican voters, or margin of error. It seems apparent to me that there was fraud then. Why couldn't there be fraud again?

[euler]

14. hey

"Do you believe there was fraud in this election?" Maybe. Not proven so far. If you have some links where someone proves fraud, I'll look at them.

If so, don't you think the exit polls should reflect it? This exit poll? No. It wasn't designed for that. Yes, I've weighed all the expert 'testimony.' If you browse around the web, there is a lot of it. Those expoerts who explain that this exit poll data set cannot be used to verify the election far outwweigh, in both argument and credentials, the experts who have used these same numbers to 'prove' election fraud.

I hang out here because I hate to see us shooting ourselves in the foot all the time. We are wasting time on exit polls. Someone has to say it.

[passy]

17. Please let believers believe!

I always see your name pop up whenever there is a post from TIA. You always bring down those who show a bit of hope in the exit poll numbers. Now I understand you have your point of view on the issue and as you say "I hate to see us shooting ourselves in the foot all the time", but I think that you should be a bit more laid back.
Why do you care so much if people make fools of themselves? Let them be, it doesn't do you or anyone any harm. I personally am an atheist and I wouldn't go onto religious forums trying to tell them that god doesn't exist, I might think that some of them are making fools of themselves discussing issues which I find ridiculous but I wouldn't want to spend my time refuting their arguments every single time.
Your constant rebuttals add nothing to the discussion. Those who believe that exit polls might be seen as evidence of election fraud already have enough to contend with, like for example repugs who think the whole concept is out of date and seek to get rid of exit polls once and for all, preferably before 2006.
I'm sure you can use your intelligence, energy and internet savvy on other issues such as disenfranchisement which really needs detailed documenting.

[davidgmills]

18. Make yourself useful and learn something about the accuracy

Of the count itself if you don't want to beleive the accuracy of the exit polls.

After all the debate is really about the accuracy ofthe exit polls vs. the accuracy of the count.

The accuracy of the count in our census was rediculous and had to be statistically corrected. Why think we can do any better counting votes?

I am so sick of hearing the not designed for it argument.

Does not mean it can't be used for it.

Like I said, make yourself useful and start attacking the accuracy of the count.

[Duncan]

20. Euler

Clearly you think there is significant weight to TIA's posts, or you wouldn't spend so much time and energy trying to discredit them. Your rude tone is irritating. Please go elsewhere.

[Wilms]

5. I remember being told years ago...

that accountants use pencil in case their asked to come up up with different numbers.

[Goldeneye]

6. .........

Nader lost a lot of ground between the two sets too. Is it possible Nader votes were thrown to Bush? Or does it seem likely that they were just oversampled? Maybe its just a rounding thing too...

TIA have you ever looked at how many votes nader lost. It might explain some of Bush's gains.

[TruthIsAll]

7. I have not looked at Nader's numbers. Only the 2-party vote.

You are right.
A few votes here... a few there..
...

[BamaLefty]

8. Kerry Won

And maybe we can straighten this crap out before 2008 when he wins again.

[euler]

9. This discrepancy was raised and explained ....

....a couple weeks ago.

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2005/01/fun_with_unweig.html

[nashuaadvocate]

11. Well, sort of...

...I participated in that discussion with Mark Blumenthal, and in fact I think it ended without any definitive conclusion. Mark felt that there were still discrepancies in the reported sample-sizes, even after phone calls to Mitofsky International garnered some *momentarily* satisfactory explanations for same. Eventually, all of them fell apart. You can read the "comments" section of the article you linked to for more details on how the conversation played out.

The News Editor
The Nashua Advocate

[euler]

13. Thanks n/t

[flpoljunkie]

22. WTF :Computer crash at 11PM, just before NEP to post Bush pulling ahead!

Then please explain the results TIA has posted above from the Washington Post website, that same numbers that CNN posted at 12:23AM with MOE of 1% with 13,047 respondents!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23580-2004Nov3.html

On Tuesday, new problems surfaced: a 2 1/2-hour data blackout and samples that at one point or another included too many women, too few Westerners, not enough Republicans and a lead for Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry in the national survey that persisted until late in the evening.

Election Day 2004 was a roller-coaster ride for the two presidential candidates and for the political press corps. Successive waves of the national exit poll in the afternoon and evening reported that Kerry had a two- or three-percentage-point lead over Bush nationally and in several key states, including Ohio.

<>To compound the problem further, a server at Edison/Mitofsky malfunctioned shortly before 11 p.m. The glitch prevented access to any exit poll results until technicians got a backup system operational at 1:33 a.m. yesterday.

The crash occurred barely minutes before the consortium was to update its exit polling with the results of later interviewing that found Bush with a one-point lead. Instead, journalists were left relying on preliminary exit poll results released at 8:15 p.m., which still showed Kerry ahead by three percentage points.

It was only after the polls had closed in most states and the vote count was well underway in the East that it became clear that Bush was in a stronger position in several key battlegrounds, including Ohio, than early exit polls suggested.

[Goldeneye]

23. I always like that part....the computer crash, I mean.

Its so ironic that they would crash just as Bush was pulling ahead. All day long Kerry was leading, and just as Bush was making his big break, the damn things crash.


"On Tuesday, new problems surfaced: a 2 1/2-hour data blackout and samples that at one point or another included too many women, too few Westerners, not enough Republicans and a lead for Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry in the national survey that persisted until late in the evening."

I also liked the part where they try to convince us that they oversampled several Kerry groups, and consequently under sampled big Bush groups. Funny how things change. Turns out Kerry voters were just more eager to participate...or not.

[BeFree]

24. Yeah, computer crash ~ data change

One thing to remember.... Exit-polling takes place in precincts that historically have picked the winners damn near every time, in every election. The precincts are not picked willy-nilly.

Therefore, the basic science of exit-polls is found to be sound, and that's why the consortium was paid 10 million for the production of the numbers.

As with any production of this magnitude, certain elements can influence the results. Given the science based design of exit-polls, one can certainly surmise that those altering influences are well researched and plans made to keep the influence to a minimum. Otherwise, there would be no economical value in the production, and the exit-polls wouldn't be worth 10 cents.

Now, throw in a last minute 'computer crash' and then one can see how such an altering influence could screw the science all to hell, and you can see how the final numbers could be produced.

The only numbers worth clinging too are the numbers produced before the computer crash.