Read this please..........

[springhill]

While the counties in question have a high percentage of democratic voters, they tend to vote republican. Having said that, there is a stark difference in vote differences for democrats and republicans in a lot of the counties. I went to Florida State Elections page and got some totals for the last three elections. Here is what I found:

Baker County:

1996 - (D) 2273 (R) 3684
2000 - (D) 2392 (R) 5610
2004 - (D) 2180 (R) 7738
Notice how the democratic vote actually went down in 2004, but the republican vote skyrocketed in each of the last two years.

Columbia County:

1996 - (D) 6691 (R)7588
2000 - (D) 7047 (R)10,964
2004 - (D) 8029 (R)16,753

Duval County:

1996 - (D) 112,258 (R)126,857
2000 - (D) 107,864 (R)152,098
2004 - (D) 157,624 (R)218,476

Holmes County:

1996 - (D) 2310 (R)_3248
2000 - (D) 2177 (R) 5011
2004 - (D) 1810 (R)_6410
Another county where the 2004 totals for dems are down from the previous two years, but the republican vote again skyrocketed.
These are just a few counties, but there are many more that follow the same patter.

[wryter2000]

1. Did you send this to bbv.org?

www.blackboxvoting.org

[TexasChick]

2. OMG! Does the plot thicken, or what??!!! n/t

[99Pancakes]

3. That's way weird!

(nt)

[mrdmk]

4. Is there any way you could get more data?

May require a trip to the library!

[lessthanjake]

5. I tend to think this is all just republicans focusing on turnout in suburb

whereas we focused on turnout in cities.

[springhill]

6. Bullshit!

[dweller]

7. Really?

fascinating.


dp

[Straight Shooter]

8. The manipulation of the 2004 election has been in the works for years

Anybody who thinks bush, et al., are going to suddenly tamper with voting for this election needs to grab hold of the back of their neck and pull their head out of the sand.

A slow and steady embezzlement of the votes, a process which takes at least 4 years, maybe even before then. Very clever. Also very criminal.

Good work, springhill. You know who to send it to.

I'd like to see the numbers going back to 1998 when Jeb was elected, and of course back to 1994 to see the trend that started it all. This is some really thick pea-soup fog we're in.

[BeFree]

9. Yep

It has been planned and executed over several elections. We saw evidence first in 2000, and Bev Harris uncovered a boat-load of evidence two years ago.

Now it's our turn. Time for our own "Shock and Awe" campaign, as we bomb the media with the evidence.

"That was the last time I vote on one of those damn computers" ...BeFree

[Kellis]

10. Are DUers on top of their game or what!!

Thanks springhill -:yourock:

[fizzana]

11. I've studied these numbers in relation to the rest of Florida

and they match the gradual move to Republicans in other Florida counties. In 1996 Clinton won Florida quite easily, in 2000 it was a tie (more or less) and in 2004, Bush had a 5% margin (officially).

You have to look at these numbers in context and not as isolated examples. These are rural, conservative counties on the border with Georgia and Alabama and they have been moving rightward for the past 20 years.

[springhill]

12. Excuse me...............

Clinton did much better than Dukakis and won counties that since have gone republican. I also went back to 1988 where Bush won every single one of those counties. So to say the trend has been steady is not true, especially if you take into account fraud in the last two elections.

[springhill]

13. And also.........

Any trend before 2000 was minor, not the huge jumps I am talking about.

[fizzana]

14. A lot more of the rural 'moral values' crowd came out and voted

this election. The fact is that these numbers offer no proof per se of fraud. I agree they should be looked into but to jump to the conclusion that there was fraud doesn't serve our cause.

[shraby]

15. Check this:

<http://www.washingtondispatch.com/spectrum/archives/000715.html>

[rhosgobel]

16. Comparison of 1996 to 2004 data for all counties

I posted a comparison of voting trends in 1996 and 2004 including all Florida counties, and found that there was an 18.3% Republican "shift" overall. I also did a rough comparison of optical scan to e-voting counties, though I didn't control for county size in the analysis.

http://rhosgobel.blogspot.com/2004/11/florida-1996-vs-2004-presidential.html

[WhoWantsToBeOccupied]

21. How will/should we respond to fraud in 2000 election?

Excellent! This is the best analysis of the "Dixiecrat" hypothesis that I've seen.

It appears to this pair of eyeballs that something else is also at work.

I agree 1996 is a smarter baseline than 2000. Something was rotten in Denmark... I mean Florida... in 2000.

How will/should we respond if fraud extends back in time and below the presidential level (as I'm pretty confident it does)??? That's a pretty important question. Is our goal: 1) To ensure that the next election is fair; 2) To ensure that Kerry becomes president if he is the legitimate winner; or, 3) To expose and rectify all rigged elections in the past and at all levels of government?

This is probably an academic question vis-a-vis Florida because Jeb has surely destroyed any 2000 or 2002 paper trail by now. But we may be able to demonstrate statistically that fraud occurred.

I'm getting ahead of the ongoing investigation, so let me stop speculating and thank you for your analysis.

[donachiel]

23. 'Bout time I get my daughter involved in this....

She works for a statistical software company that many of you have probably heard of and is doing her Master's work at PSU in statistics.

She hasn't given me a grandchild yet so maybe she can help or find someone to help crunch/analyze numbers.

Worth a shot!

[RaulVB]

17. "Dixiecrats", you know...

They never die, they just keep growing in numbers year after year in the Republican state of Florida!

Or that is what Carville and Begala would tell you...

[jsamuel]

18. How many "Dixiecrats" live in Jacksonville, because that is Duval...

If you think about it, that arguement doesn't make any sense.

[RaulVB]

20. I know it doesn't

But that's just me and you.

Carville and Begala and the whole DNC, take this pill every day.

[jackblue]

26. yeah i know

i was just looking at stuff about duval, that really doesn't make sense.

[donachiel]

24. You guys are forgetting those who have flown south....

My sister moved to Seminole County years ago. She definitely did not vote for the Bushwacker and from what she told me yesterday, neither did anyone she knows. There are a lot of people I know from PA who left for better weather/opportunities down there. You can't tell me that they were Dems here and they all converted by just migrating?

Me confused....

[RaulVB]

25. That is what I want to hear from the DNC "leaders"

And their "electoral experts"

A breakdown about the Florida democratic voter and a base for the MSM "Dixiecrat" theory. A coherent explanation, that is.

[donachiel]

27. Sure would be nice.

They think only retired people fly south. What rose colored glasses do they have on?

My youngest sister is gay. We live in a very rural area of NE PA. People up here still cross to the other side of the street when they encounter a black person walking down the street. I am a caucasian 2nd generation Sicilian who also was picked on when young for being "different" because my grandfather had such a heavy Sicilian accent and our skin was a bit darker then the fair skinned people up here.

Exactly why my sister left. If my elderly father and older sister (who is just about to retirement age herself was not here, I would leave too. It's sad to have to live like this in the 21st century.

[GregD]

19. ok, let me give you a clue of where to look next.

I already have seen the answer, but go look at Georgia that went all paperless a couple years ago.

Do the same thing, with a few GA counties, and tell us if you see a similar pattern.

[Affirmed]

22. Dixiecrats in other Southern States?

Springhill--thanks for your interesting findings.

It would be revealing to take a quick look at other Southern States, especially where they still use paper ballots. If the Dixiecrat argument is valid, then it should also hold in other parts of the South.

Look for predominantly white counties (or counties comparable in racial makeup to the Dixiecrat areas in FL), the party registrations of voters and the actual votes for 1996, 2000 and 2004.

If we do not see the same patterns as in FL, then that should destroy the Dixiecrat argument.

Don't look at Georgia because the whole state uses e-voting and that was where the mid-term elections saw a Republican sweep even though pre-election polls showed Dems like Max Cleland leading.