Prominent Statisticians Urge Investigation of U.S. Presidential Election

[BlueEyedSon]

Prominent Statisticians Urge Investigation of U.S. Presidential Election Results (USCountVotes.org press release). I believe this is an updated/final revision. Sorry if it's a dupe.

Monday, January 31, 2005
http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/USCountVotes_Re_Mitofsky-Edison.pdf

Prominent Statisticians Refute 'Explanation' of 2004 U.S. Exit Poll Discrepancies in New Edison/Mitofsky Report and Urge Investigation of U.S. Presidential Election Results.

President Bush won November's election by 2.5% yet exit polls showed Kerry leading by 3%. Which was correct?

"There are statistical indications that a systematic, nationwide shift of 5.5% of the vote may have occurred, and that we'll never get to the bottom of this, unless we gather the data we need for mathematical analysis and open, robust scientific debate.", says Bruce O'Dell, USCountVotes' Vice President.

The study, “Response to Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004 Report”, was co-authored by a diverse group of professors and academicians specializing in statistics and mathematics. The USCountVotes team included Josh Mitteldorf, Ph.D., Temple University Statistics Department; Kathy Dopp, M.S. in mathematics, USCountVotes President; Steven F. Freeman, Ph.D., Visiting Scholar & Affiliated Faculty, Center for Organizational Dynamics, University of Pennsylvania; Brian Joiner, Ph.D., Professor of Statistics and Director of Statistical Consulting (ret), University of Wisconsin; Frank Stenger, Ph.D. Professor of Numerical Analysis, School of Computing, University of Utah; Richard G. Sheehan, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Finance, University of Notre Dame, Elizabeth Liddle, M.A. (UK) Ph.D. candidate at the University of Nottingham, Paul F. Velleman, Assoc. Professor, Ph.D., Department of Statistical Sciences, Cornell University; Victoria Lovegren, Ph.D., Lecturer, Department of Mathematics, Case Western Reserve University; Campbell B. Read, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, Department of Statistical Science, Southern Methodist University. Their study does not support claims made by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International that exit poll errors were to blame for the unprecedented 5.5% discrepancy between exit polls and official 2004 election results.

According to this analysis by a group of senior statisticians, the new data just released by the exit-pollsters shows that the possibility that the overall vote count was substantially corrupted must be taken seriously. “Now we have statistical evidence that these reports were the tip of a national iceberg. The hypothesis that the discrepancy between the exit polls and election results is due to errors in the official election tally is a coherent theory that must be explored,” said statistician Josh Mitteldorf.

Their paper titled "Response to Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004 Report" notes that the Edison/Mitofsky report offers no evidence to support their conclusion that Kerry voters “participated in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters”. In fact, the data provided in the Edison/Mitofsky report suggests that the opposite may have been true: Bush strongholds had slightly higher response rates than Kerry strongholds.

The statisticians go on to note that precincts with hand-counted paper ballots showed no statistical discrepancy between the exit polls and the official results, but for other voting technologies, the overall discrepancy was far larger than the polls’ margin of error. The pollsters at Edison/Mitofsky agreed that their 2004 exit polls, for whatever reason, had the poorest accuracy in at least twenty years.

USCountVotes, a nonprofit, non-partisan Utah corporation was founded in December 2004. Its mission is to create and analyze a database containing precinct-level election results for the entire United States; to do a thorough mathematical analysis of the 2004 election results; and to fully investigate the 2004 Presidential election results. USCountVotes actively seeks volunteers and accepts donations to help make this unprecedented civic project a reality – visit www.uscountvotes.org for further information.

For more information, contact Bruce O'Dell, Vice President of US Count Votes, in Minneapolis, MN: [e-mail] 612-309-1330

The statisticians' study is available online at
http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/USCountVotes_Re_Mitofsky-Edison.pdf

The full text of the Edison/Mitofsky report is available at
http://www.exit-poll.net/election-night/EvaluationJan192005.pdf

[L. Coyote]

1. This Press Release came out minutes ago. Report was available earlier...

Here is the link to the ongoing discussion of the report.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=309093&mesg_id=309093

[BlueEyedSon]

2. Internal date in the PDF file is 1/31

I expect there were changes from Friday's version....

[skids]

8. Yeah, there was a minor "leak"

Today's press release was originally planned to be the first people heard of it.

[L. Coyote]

14. Actually, USCountVotes released the study online last week.

I like the timing of the press release, after writers have had a chance to digest the Report rebuttal.

Also, just before the State of the Union.

[skids]

20. Well, according to private mail I've gotten...

Someone started handing out that URL a little early. I don't think it was too big a deal and was probably just due to some sort of misunderstanding. At any rate, it's good to see them finally getting equal attention along with many of the other fine organizations fighting this battle.

And, very good timing for nasuadvocate to get google-news status I must say.

[coloradodem2005]

3. Maybe I should study Stats independently.

So I could try to figure some of this out.

[melissinha]

4. All I want is...

Daming evidence that the Administration paid off Mitofsky to shut up. I mean come on... after asserting their methods are scientific they just back off and claim that the fault lies in Kerry candidates responding fervently?? Its just a regurgitation of the GOP excuses... They also just gave a really bad name to pollsters... basically making themselves irrelevant. good going.


It reeks of GOP manipulation.

[Nothing Without Hope]

5. I do hope news of these studies starts getting out

...but the corporate media are unlikely to cover it except to portray it as an "obviously false" and "bitter-ender" analysis.

Thanks for this. It's definitely one for the keeper file.
:kick:

edited to add: Nominated for the Home Page

[garybeck]

6. is the press release available online?

I already have SolarBus linked to the PDF but it would be nice if I could link to some kind of announcement or summary of it.

thanks
Gary

[BlueEyedSon]

7. Don't you love Google?

http://www.emediawire.com/releases/2005/1/emw203331.htm

[L. Coyote]

15. Yes, go to USCountVotes.org and click News Releases

The news release is already edited to include the credits of the 9 authors.

[Nothing Without Hope]

9. What happens if the US Pres election IS found to be tainted?

The blivet** is already inaugurated, and I don't think there's anything in the Constitution to cover this situation. The votes have already been certified.

[Wilms]

13. No lawyer, me.

But I think in order to have the squatter-in-chief removed we'd have to show he knew or participated in the fraud.

Short of that, my hope is revelations about the stolen election would be among numerous scandals that force resignation and/or hand the WH to good Dems in '08.

[FreedomAngel82]

28. If the votes are

shown to go to Kerry wouldn't that make them not certified and stolen?

[Nothing Without Hope]

43. I don't think so. I think the vote certification closes that door.

Obviously the truth about the election results has to be gotten for a lot of reasons, but as with Gore in 2000, I don't think results are changed once the votes are certified.

I'm no legal expert, but I think that's right. Of course, I would love to be proved wrong on this point!

[understandinglife]

10. Spread this everywhere (nt)

BE THE BU$H OPPOSITION; 24/7

[paineinthearse]

11. Nominate Topic for Homepage n/t

[understandinglife]

12. Done. (nt)

BE THE BU$H OPPOSITION; 24/7

[hvn_nbr_2]

17. And done again (nt)

[jfern]

16. Bump

[BlueEyedSon]

18. kick

[RaulVB]

19. Kick (n/t)

[TruthIsAll]

21. I JUST PUT A LINK TO THIS THREAD IN THE POLITICS FORUM

KICK IT AND DON'T STOP.

[lady lib]

26. Thank you.

That's how I found this one.

[berniew1]

22. Documentation of vote machine fraud & dirty tricks in over 20 states

Widespread touchscreen vote machine fraud, other malfeasance and ballot count manipulation, dirty tricks, and suppression of minority voters in over 20 states

http://www.flcv.com/ussumall.html

[RaulVB]

23. Kick daily (n/t)

[Blue_State_Elitist]

24. kick

I really hope this sticks.

[lady lib]

25. Nominated and sent letters/links to NYT and WaPo

urging that they follow up. We'll see if they can manage to do their jobs.

:argh:

[dandrhesse]

27. anyone with PR skills should contact Bruce if you can write press

releases for them. They don't have a pro doing that and their press releases are hard for lay people to get, much less the "general public" that we are trying so hard to reach. With the right exposure this could go national with TV appearances etc. So anyone with connections in these areas, step up please :)

Contact information for Bruce O'Dell in in the first post of this thread.

[papau]

29. kick :-)

:-)

[Helga Scow Stern]

30. Kick. Last night I got an email

from Denmark saying, Please read this. It's important!

So I read it and then faxed it to 30 or so Senators.

[dandrhesse]

34. anyone reading this that lives in a country outside the US please

forward to your media outlets. International pressure would help. I notice at the few press conferences that Bush does have the foreign correspondents questions are always more direct and Bush is not as short tempered with them. Also foreign leaders may not be clued into what all is happening if their aides are reading the NY Times, Wall Street Journal and the like. I wonder how many different heads of state have seen the Conyers report?

[myschkin]

36. Foreign media

are ignorant. Please believe me - I "inform" them since a long time... (Germany, Austria, Switzerland)

They just think - oh, this is just the opinion of a minority...

Sad, but true.

**

Facism is everywhere.

[dandrhesse]

37. you're right that is sad.

[emlev]

31. Please donate to the organization that did this study!

They're doing very important work and need our support. Even $10 a month would help them continue their work and get their report circulated farther.

Please go to http://www.uscountvotes.org if you need more information about who they are and what they're doing before you donate.

Send donations by mail to:

USCountVotes
P.O. Box 682556
Park City, UT 84068

[L. Coyote]

38. Even more important, volunteer and help build the database. n/t

[emlev]

40. Both are very important!

[intensitymedia]

32. hand counted paper ballots = no discrepancy .. what's good for iraq should

be good enough for the us.

The iraqi election aftermath is being used to sentimentalize elections in some kind of general sense, while ignoring the filthy results actually observed here in the ole us of a.

elections are only as good as their vote count accuracy.

peace - but never give up the struggle

che el garbantho

[dandrhesse]

33. not so fast on that one

I received a prayer request from a friend a week or so ago that asked for prayers for their battalion (sp?) because they were in the convoy that was transporting balloting and VOTING MACHINES! I about had a fit, the soldiers and citizens of Iraq and our service people risking their lives for an election that is questionable, it just turns my stomach.

[intheflow]

35. Today I give a presentation to my seminary on why I protested the inaug.

This is a very timely post for me. Thanks, BlueEyedSon!

[DARE to HOPE]

39. May the angels hold you up, IntheFlow! :-)

The most heart breaking for me was the number of African Americans and students who were prevented from voting, documented in Conyers' report, by well planned and cynical Republican tactics. The spirit of MLK cries out for a response!

I sent my own husband to his Lutheran clergy group today (very much a foot dragging group, but consciousness HAS grown) to raise the subject and the threat of the Dominionist movement, which, to my way of thinking, is NOT AT ALL Christian, but is replacing the idea of "Christian" in the American mind.

God give you the words today.

[BlueEyedSon]

44. NP, just spreadin' the wealth (of knowledge)

a thing you know a thing-or-two about!
:)

[cyberpj]

41. Baker refutes "prominent statisticians" qualifications here:

I won’t explore here the limitations of some of my own cocksure college professors, other than to say that academia has as many bad eggs as good, and that mere titles, positions and accolades don’t necessarily qualify someone to declare an election stolen.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x312336

[GoSolar]

42. Kick!

:kick:

[bleever]

45. Kick.

[BlueEyedSon]

46. kick