ANY OF YOU QUANTS CARE TO COMMENT ON THIS?

[TruthIsAll]

Here is a run of the Exit Poll Response Optimizer for what I
believe to be the most likely and plausible scenario.

INPUT
1. Target: Kerry wins 52.5% of 2-party vote
2. Response = R = 53% (wtd average)
3. Alpha = K/B =.98 (wtd average)
(Kerry voters slightly more reluctant 49 Kerry/50 Bush)
I believe Repubs for Kerry were intimidated. 
It makes more sense intuitively AND anecdotally.
E-M says that Alpha = 56/50 =1.12 


OUTPUT:
4. Kerry wins Exit Poll with 51.46% of 2-party vote

5. Total 2 party vote (121mm): 
Kerry 63.52mm, Bush 57.47mm 

6. Avg WPE: 2.08%

7. Exit Poll Response:
Ranges from 48% (High Bush precincts) to 52.5% (Non-partisan)
to 58% (High Kerry).


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL 							
6/9/05 10:21 AM							
							
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate
exit poll response data.							
							
Precinct Variables Range Constraints:							
1-Response: within (Min, Max) and equal to weighted avg
rate.							
2-Kerry win percentage:within (Min, Max).							
3-Alpha (K/B): within (Min, Max) and equal to weighted
average.							
4-WPE within E-M actuals or (Min, Max). 							
							
TARGET INPUT	MOST LIKELY SCENARIO						
Kerry 2-party vote		52.50%					
Bush 2-party vote		47.50%					
							
Wtd Avg Response		53.0%					
Wtd Avg Alpha (K/B)		0.98					
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	30%	30%	30%	30%	30%		
Max	70%	70%	70%	70%	70%		
							
ALPHA							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%		
Max	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
	PERCENTAGE SPLIT	VOTE SPLIT (mm)				
PCT	POLL	VOTE	Diff	POLL	VOTE	Diff	
Kerry	51.46%	52.50%	1.04%	62.27	63.52	1.26	
Bush	48.54%	47.50%	-1.04%	58.73	57.47	-1.26	
							
Bush needed	46.35%	of refusers to match his vote					
							
PRECINCTS						Wtd Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		
							
Resp.	48.0%	51.1%	52.5%	58.0%	58.0%		53.0%
Dev	-5.0%	-1.9%	-0.5%	5.0%	5.0%		0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.19	1.00	0.93	1.04	0.96		0.98
Dev	21.8%	1.8%	-4.6%	6.3%	-1.9%		0%
							
2-PARTY VOTE 							
Kerry	19.2%	40.0%	54.8%	60.2%	96.7%		52.50%
Bush	80.8%	60.0%	45.2%	39.8%	3.3%		47.50%
Votes 							
(mm)	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
Kerry 	0.75	16.08	28.66	9.62	8.42		63.52
Bush	3.13	24.10	23.61	6.35	0.29		57.47
Diff	-2.38	-8.02	5.05	3.27	8.13		6.05
							
EXIT POLL							
Kerry	21.9%	40.0%	52.2%	61.8%	94.3%		51.46%
Bush	78.1%	60.0%	47.8%	38.2%	5.7%		48.54%
Votes 							
(mm)	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
Kerry 	0.85	16.05	27.28	9.87	8.21		62.27
Bush	3.02	24.12	24.99	6.10	0.50		58.73
Diff	-2.17	-8.07	2.30	3.77	7.71		3.53
							
WPE	-5.4%	0.1%	5.3%	-3.1%	4.8%		2.08%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							

Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	20%	40%	54%	61%	96%		52.14%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.19	1.00	0.93	1.04	0.96		0.98
AvgDev	22%	2%	-5%	6%	-2%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	19	212	283	96	52		663
Pct	48.0%	51.1%	52.5%	58.0%	58.0%		53.00%
							
Kerry	4	85	148	59	49		345
Pct	21.9%	40.0%	52.2%	61.8%	94.3%		51.46%
Bush	15	127	135	37	3		317
Pct	78.1%	60.0%	47.8%	38.2%	5.7%		48.54%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	21	203	257	69	38		587
Pct	52.0%	48.9%	47.5%	42.0%	42.0%		47.00%
							
Kerry	3	81	148	40	38		311
Pct	16.8%	40.1%	57.7%	58.1%	100.0%		53.65%
Bush	17	122	108	29	0		276
Pct	83.2%	59.9%	42.3%	41.9%	0.0%		46.35%
							
VOTE							
Kerry	8	166	296	99	87		656
Pct	19.2%	40.0%	54.8%	60.2%	96.7%		52.50%
Bush	32	249	244	66	3		594
Pct	80.8%	60.0%	45.2%	39.8%	3.3%		47.50%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-61.5%	-20.0%	9.7%	20.5%	93.3%		5.00%
Kp-Bp	-56.1%	-20.1%	4.4%	23.6%	88.5%		2.92%
							
WPE	-5.4%	0.1%	5.3%	-3.1%	4.8%		2.08%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%

[OnTheOtherHand]

1. quick thoughts

The aggregate result looks right given the assumptions -- overall, about every 0.02 in alpha yields 1% gap between exits and official results, for alpha close to 1.

It's not obvious why the response rates would range from 48% high-Bush to 58% high-Kerry given an overall alpha of 0.98, but it is possible. I haven't stared hard at that, and can't for a while.

[TruthIsAll]

2. thanks for the quick "response" ( no pun intended)..

This model runs in a flash.

Here are 11 scenarios for Kerry targeted to win 51.80% for
alphas ranging from .95 to 1.05:


		ANALYSIS OF EXIT POLL RESPONSE
              BY PARTISANSHIP FOR VARIOUS ALPHA (K/B)


WEIGHTED AVG RESPONSE RATE: R=53%				
ASSUME KERRY TARGET TO WIN: 51.8% - 48.2%				
							
			HIGH	SOLID	NON-	HIGH	SOLID
	AVERAGE		BUSH	BUSH	PART. KERRY	KERRY
K/B	0.95		1.25	0.97	0.87	1.03	1.08
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.61%	39.10%	56.94%	59.84%	79.56%
Kpoll	49.52%		22.47%	38.21%	51.14%	60.93%	83.09%
WPE	4.55%		-7.71%	1.78%	11.59%	-2.19%	-7.07%
							
K/B	0.96		1.25	0.98	0.88	1.04	1.08
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.61%	39.00%	57.02%	59.82%	79.55%
Kpoll	49.92%		22.48%	38.41%	51.84%	61.06%	83.18%
WPE	3.77%		-7.73%	1.17%	10.36%	-2.48%	-7.27%

K/B	0.97		1.25	0.99	0.89	1.04	1.08
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.61%	38.90%	57.10%	59.80%	79.54%
Kpoll	50.30%		22.49%	38.61%	52.53%	61.18%	83.27%
WPE	2.99%		-7.76%	0.58%	9.15%	-2.76%	-7.46%
							
K/B	0.98		1.25	1.00	0.91	1.04	1.08
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.60%	38.81%	57.18%	59.78%	79.54%
Kpoll	50.69%		22.50%	38.81%	53.21%	61.30%	83.36%
WPE	2.23%		-7.79%	-0.01%	7.95%	-3.04%	-7.66%
							
K/B	0.99		1.25	1.01	0.92	1.05	1.09
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.60%	38.72%	57.26%	59.77%	79.53%
Kpoll	51.07%		22.51%	39.02%	53.88%	61.43%	83.45%
WPE	1.47%		-7.82%	-0.59%	6.75%	-3.32%	-7.85%
							

BASE CASE:
ALPHA = 1.0 

K/B	1.00		1.25	1.02	0.93	1.05	1.09
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.59%	38.64%	57.33%	59.75%	79.52%
Kpoll	51.44%		22.52%	39.22%	54.54%	61.55%	83.54%
WPE	0.72%		-7.84%	-1.16%	5.57%	-3.60%	-8.04%
							




K/B	1.01		1.25	1.03	0.95	1.06	1.09
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.59%	38.55%	57.40%	59.74%	79.52%
Kpoll	51.81%		22.53%	39.42%	55.20%	61.67%	83.63%
WPE	-0.03%		-7.87%	-1.73%	4.40%	-3.87%	-8.24%
							
K/B	1.02		1.25	1.04	0.96	1.06	1.09
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.59%	38.48%	57.46%	59.72%	79.51%
Kpoll	52.18%		22.54%	39.62%	55.84%	61.80%	83.72%
WPE	-0.77%		-7.90%	-2.28%	3.24%	-4.15%	-8.43%
							
K/B	1.03		1.25	1.05	0.98	1.06	1.10
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.58%	38.40%	57.52%	59.71%	79.50%
Kpoll	52.55%		22.55%	39.82%	56.48%	61.92%	83.81%
WPE	-1.50%		-7.93%	-2.83%	2.09%	-4.42%	-8.62%
							
K/B	1.04		1.26	1.06	0.99	1.07	1.10
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.58%	38.33%	57.58%	59.70%	79.50%
Kpoll	52.91%		22.56%	40.02%	57.11%	62.04%	83.90%
WPE	-2.22%		-7.95%	-3.38%	0.95%	-4.70%	-8.81%
							
K/B	1.05		1.26	1.07	1.00	1.07	1.10
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.58%	38.26%	57.64%	59.68%	79.49%
Kpoll	53.27%		22.57%	40.22%	57.73%	62.17%	83.99%
WPE	-2.94%		-7.98%	-3.91%	-0.18%	-4.97%	-9.00%

.....................................................


		WPE SENSITIVITY TO ALPHA				

K/B	AVG	HB	B	BK	K	HK
 0.95 	4.55%	-7.71%	1.78%	11.59%	-2.19%	-7.07%
 0.96 	3.77%	-7.73%	1.17%	10.36%	-2.48%	-7.27%
 0.97 	2.99%	-7.76%	0.58%	9.15%	-2.76%	-7.46%
 0.98 	2.23%	-7.79%	-0.01%	7.95%	-3.04%	-7.66%
 0.99 	1.47%	-7.82%	-0.59%	6.75%	-3.32%	-7.85%

 1.00 	0.72%	-7.84%	-1.16%	5.57%	-3.60%	-8.04%

 1.01 	-0.03%	-7.87%	-1.73%	4.40%	-3.87%	-8.24%
 1.02 	-0.77%	-7.90%	-2.28%	3.24%	-4.15%	-8.43%
 1.03 	-1.50%	-7.93%	-2.83%	2.09%	-4.42%	-8.62%
 1.04 	-2.22%	-7.95%	-3.38%	0.95%	-4.70%	-8.81%
 1.05 	-2.94%	-7.98%	-3.91%	-0.18%	-4.97%	-9.00%

[TruthIsAll]

3. HIGH KERRY AND SOLID KERRY HEADINGS NEED TO BE REVERSED

HIGH KERRY SHOULD BE THE RIGHT-MOST COLUMN HEADING.
THE DATA IS OK. JUST CHANGE THE HEADING.

NOTE: THESE 11 APLHA SCENARIOS ALL ASSUME A KERRY 51.8% 2-PARTY WIN, UNLIKE THE ORIGINAL POST IN THIS THREAD WHICH TARGETS HIS TOTAL 2-PARTY VOTE AT 52.5% - AND WHICH IS CLOSER TO WHAT I BELIEVE OCCURRED.

I RAN THE 11 ALPHA SCENARIOS FOR THE 51.8% KERRY WIN LAST NIGHT, BEFORE STARTING THIS THREAD. I THOUGHT IT WOULD STILL BE INTERESTING TO SHOW THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN THIS THREAD.

IF THE SENSITIVITY WERE RUN FOR 52.5%, I AM SURE THAT THE PATTERN OF OUTPUTS WOULD NOT VARY MUCH FROM THE 51.8% ANALYSIS.

[autorank]

6. I look forward to more of this colloquy. Shame it ended.

:shrug:

[autorank]

7. I've moved from "thread killer" to "colloquy killer"...

...this one had promise. It's 11:27, you you know where OTOH is?

Contact the DNC and Give 'em Hell About NOT Acting on Election Fraud

NEW LEADERS FOR A NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY

[LightningFlash]

4. Stunning....Any way you slice it shows the same thing...

[kster]

5. Kick.nt