HERE IS WHAT BUSH NEEDED TO DO IN ORDER TO WIN 51.23%

[TruthIsAll]

HERE IS WHAT BUSH NEEDED TO DO IN ORDER TO WIN 51.23% OF THE
2-PARTY VOTE (62-59 MILLION)
 
He needed:
1) an aggregate alpha of 1.14 (57/K/50B)
2) 51.8% of the total vote in the non-partisan middle.
3) 1.20 alpha in the non-partisan middle (60K/50B)
4) 47.1% of responders in the middle
5) 58.7% of refusers in the middle.
6) 60.64% of refusers in his moderate stronghold.
7) He had to overcome a 53.2% Kerry lead in exit poll
responders.... 

HE COULD ONLY GET TO 51.23% BY WINNING 56.30% OF EXIT POLL
REFUSERS.
THAT'S A HELLUVA LOT OF RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDERS.


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/11/05 12:14 PM							
							
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive tthe Bush 2-party vote of 51.23% using aggregate
exit poll response data.							
						
Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints:			
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average 				
2-Kerry 2-party win percentage ranges                 	
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted avg					
4-WPE: input  Min= Max = E-M													
							
TARGET VOTE % 							
Kerry 48.77%						
Bush	51.23%						
Actual Bush	51.23%						
							
WEIGHTED AVERAGE							
Response 	53.0%						
Alpha (K/B)	1.140						
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	25%	45%	55%	75%		
Max	25%	45%	55%	75%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%		
Max	80%	80%	80%	80%	80%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.1%	-6.2%	-8.6%	-6.0%	0.2%		
Max	-9.9%	-6.0%	-8.4%	-5.8%	0.4%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	53.26%	48.77%	-4.49%		63.16	59.01	-4.14
Bush	46.74%	51.23%	4.49%		57.84	61.99	4.14
							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
Resp.	47.6%	45.0%	59.4%	45.3%	67.8%		53.0%
Dev	-5.4%	-8.0%	6.4%	-7.7%	14.8%		0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.19	1.08	1.20	1.10	1.12		1.14
Dev	4.3%	-5.3%	4.9%	-3.1%	-1.4%		0%
							
VOTES							
Kerry	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		48.77%
Bush	75.0%	59.3%	51.8%	40.4%	20.1%		51.23%
							
EXIT POLL 							
Kerry	27.3%	42.4%	52.9%	62.7%	84.9%		53.26%
Bush	72.7%	57.6%	47.1%	37.3%	15.1%		46.74%
							
							
WPE	-9.9%	-6.0%	-8.4%	-5.8%	0.4%		-6.67%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%		0.1%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	25.0%	40.7%	48.2%	59.6%	79.9%		48.77%
							
TOTAL							
Kerry	10	169	260	98	72		610
Pct	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		48.77%
Bush	30	246	280	67	18		640
Pct	75.0%	59.3%	51.8%	40.4%	20.1%		51.23%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.19	1.08	1.20	1.10	1.12		1.14
AvgDev	4%	-5%	5%	-3%	-1%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	19	187	321	75	61		663
Pct	47.6%	45.0%	59.4%	45.3%	67.8%		53.00%
							
Kerry	5	79	170	47	52		353
Pct	27.3%	42.4%	52.9%	62.7%	84.9%		53.26%
Bush	14	108	151	28	9		310
Pct	72.7%	57.6%	47.1%	37.3%	15.1%		46.74%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	21	228	219	90	29		587
Pct	52.4%	55.0%	40.6%	54.7%	32.2%		47.00%
							
Kerry	5	90	90	51	20		257
Pct	22.8%	39.4%	41.3%	57.0%	69.5%		43.70%
Bush	16	138	129	39	9		331
Pct	77.2%	60.6%	58.7%	43.0%	30.5%		56.30%
							
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-55.2%	-21.3%	-2.5%	19.6%	70.2%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-45.3%	-15.3%	5.9%	25.4%	69.8%		4.39%
							
WPE	-9.9%	-6.0%	-8.4%	-5.8%	0.4%		-6.85%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.97	16.37	25.20	9.51	6.96		59.01
Bush	2.90	23.80	27.07	6.46	1.75		61.99
Diff	-1.94	-7.43	-1.87	3.05	5.22		-2.98
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	1.06	17.02	27.67	10.01	7.39		63.16
Bush	2.81	23.15	24.60	5.96	1.32		57.84
Diff	-1.75	-6.13	3.07	4.05	6.08		5.31
							
	ALPHA/ VOTE SENSITIVITY						
	alpha	Bush	Kerry				
	1.00	43.62	56.39				
	1.02	45.33	56.11				
	1.04	46.69	55.98				
	1.06	47.78	55.90				
	1.08	48.77	55.50				
	1.10	49.69	54.68				
	1.12	50.57	53.94				
	1.14	51.41	53.28				
							


 
 

[AX10]

1. kick

[LightningFlash]

2. That's rich, I knew it was over..

Reluctant lie refuser really IS dead now.

Not only would Bush, in each state exit poll no less, have to get NEARLY 58% and above of the refuser radical response,

He would have had to get around 60%, of the moderate refuser response in his own strongholds,

And still account for the other 40% on top of that, all apparently white female.

That just did the whole kit n kaboodle in. How in the holy--UNILATERAL hell would the religious right have managed that?!??

Did you see James Dobson and his army of Pastors?!?? They are about the FARTHEST thing from reluctant to answer polls, as the earth is from the moon!!!!!!!

Do them moral values for ya :hi: :toast:

It's official, they instigated fraud. They increased their margins through manipulation, since there was no physical way to get those "invisible" grass roots when there is not over 90 million evangelicals even brazened in the United States.... ;)

[madrchsod]

3. what bush needed was for taft to keep his mouth shut

in oct 2004. bush got what he needed-bush won and kerry lost. gee maybe the democrats should beat up dean for this also....

[LightningFlash]

4. Bush lost, stole through fraud, and Ohio is still a cesspool....

[Zinfandel]

5. Excellent post!

[kster]

6. kick.nt

[minnesotaDFLer]

7. damn thats alot of numbers

[ccarter84]

8. agreed, but for my part i'm glad TIA is still kicking

don't know what keeps ya going, but its always re-assuring to come back to DU after a week or two and still find life on this board

[TruthIsAll]

10. Never give up.

First they ignored us.
Then they laughed at us.
Then they fought us.

Now they are joining us.

[tommcintyre]

9. kick

[kster]

11. I want in to KICK.NT