Why not?
If they want to assume rBr, we can assume the more plausible
rKr hypothesis.
If you were a Republican, wouldn't you be somewhat reluctant
to tell someone you just voted for Kerry, especially when
there are fellow church-goers nearby?
EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL
6/12/05 9:04 PM
Objective:
Calculate the precinct partisanship response required in the
13047 National Exit poll (which Kerry won by 50.8-48.2%) for
Kerry to win 52.50% of the 2-party vote, assuming a reluctant
Kerry responder.
Given the following:
1) Reluctant Kerry Responder (rKr)
Alpha = .96 (48 Kerry responders for every 50 Bush exit poll
responders).
2)53% aggregate response rate
3)Edison- Mitofsky partisanship precinct mix
The Optimizer produced the following results which are very
close to the 13047 respondent National Exit Poll:
Kerry 51.52%
Bush 48.48%
The corresponding winning Kerry margin based on the
52.50%-47.50% split of 121 million total votes is:
Kerry 63.52 mm
Bush 57.47 mm
**********************************************
Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints:
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average
2-Kerry 2-party percentage vote
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted average
4-WPE: input (optional: Min= Max= E-M)
TOTAL VOTE %
Kerry: 52.50%
Bush: 47.50%
Actual Bush vote: 51.23%
WEIGHTED AVERAGE
Response 53.0%
Alpha (K/B) 0.960
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS
1250 Strong Bush Strong Kerry
Prcts 40 415 540 165 90
KERRY WIN%
Min 0% 25% 45% 55% 75%
Max 25% 45% 55% 75% 100%
RESPONSE
Min 45% 45% 45% 45% 45%
Max 65% 65% 65% 65% 65%
ALPHA (K/B)
Min 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Max 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
WPE
E-M -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%
Min -10.0% -10.0% -10.0% -10.0% -10.0%
Max 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
*************************************************
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY
EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION
Poll Vote Diff Poll Vote Diff (mm)
Kerry 51.52% 52.50% 0.98% 62.34 63.52 1.18
Bush 48.48% 47.50% -0.98% 58.66 57.47 -1.18
Categ. HighB Bush Even Kerry HighK Total/Avg
Number 40 415 540 165 90 1250
Weights 3.2% 33.2% 43.2% 13.2% 7.2% 100.0%
Resp. 48.4% 63.1% 45.0% 48.4% 65.0% 53.0%
Dev -4.6% 10.1% -8.0% -4.6% 12.0% 0%
ALPHA
K/B 1.05 0.96 0.94 0.99 1.00 0.96
Dev 9.0% 0.1% -2.6% 3.5% 4.4% 0%
VOTES
Kerry 0.0% 44.5% 47.9% 75.0% 99.3% 52.50%
Bush 100.0% 55.5% 52.1% 25.0% 0.7% 47.50%
EXIT POLL
Kerry 0.0% 43.6% 46.3% 74.8% 99.4% 51.52%
Bush 100.0% 56.4% 53.7% 25.2% 0.6% 48.48%
WPE 0.0% 1.7% 3.1% 0.5% -0.2% 1.96%
E-M -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%
Diff 10.0% 7.8% 11.6% 6.4% -0.5% 8.7%
*************************************************
OPTIMIZATION MODEL
Categ. HighB Bush Even Kerry HighK Total/Avg
Prcts 40 415 540 165 90 1250
Kerry 0.0% 44.5% 47.9% 75.0% 99.3% 52.50%
ALPHA 1.05 0.96 0.94 0.99 1.00 0.96
AvgDev 9% 0% -3% 3% 4% 0%
TOTAL
Kerry 0 184 259 124 89 656
Pct 0.0% 44.5% 47.9% 75.0% 99.3% 52.50%
Bush 40 231 281 41 1 594
Pct 100.0% 55.5% 52.1% 25.0% 0.7% 47.50%
RESPONDERS
Total 19 262 243 80 58 663
Pct 48.4% 63.1% 45.0% 48.4% 65.0% 53.00%
Kerry 0 114 113 60 58 345
Pct 0.0% 43.6% 46.3% 74.8% 99.4% 51.52%
Bush 19 148 130 20 0 318
Pct 100.0% 56.4% 53.7% 25.2% 0.6% 48.48%
REFUSERS
Total 21 153 297 85 32 587
Pct 51.6% 36.9% 55.0% 51.6% 35.0% 47.00%
Kerry 0 70 146 64 31 312
Pct 0.0% 45.9% 49.2% 75.2% 99.1% 53.55%
Bush 21 83 151 21 0 276
Pct 100.0% 54.1% 50.8% 24.8% 0.9% 46.45%
WPE
Kv-Bv -100.0% -11.1% -4.2% 50.0% 98.7% 3.04%
Kp-Bp -100.0% -12.8% -7.3% 49.5% 98.9% 7.10%
WPE 0.0% 1.7% 3.1% 0.5% -0.2% -4.06%
E-M WPE -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)
TOTAL 3.87 40.17 52.27 15.97 8.71 121.00
Kerry 0.00 17.86 25.04 11.98 8.65 63.52
Bush 3.87 22.32 27.24 3.99 0.06 57.47
Diff -3.87 -4.46 -2.20 7.99 8.60 6.05
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)
Kerry 0.00 17.51 24.23 11.94 8.66 62.34
Bush 3.87 22.66 28.05 4.03 0.05 58.66
Diff -3.87 -5.15 -3.82 7.91 8.61 3.68
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