DUers, vote on this single question from the Nat. Exit Poll.

[TruthIsAll]

Given these facts:
Total 2004 voters: 122.3 mm.
Bush 2000 voters: 50.456 million
Bush 2000 voters still alive = 48.69mm

Which of the following three scenario calculations to
determine the popular vote percentage split is closest to
being correct?

Hint:  You will need to calculate the MAXIMUM percentage of
Bush 2000 voters of the TOTAL 2004 vote. Then, for extra
credit, use this percentage as a weighting factor in the MIX
column in order to calculate the national vote percentages for
Kerry, Bush and Nader (other). 

Note:
This is not a trick question.
The 2 seconds that it will take in doing the arithmetic to get
the right answer, and the 3 minutes to check the calculation,
is well worth the effort.



From the National Exit Poll:
Who did you vote for in 2000?	

SCENARIO I:
13047 respondents: 12:22am

Kerry 62.65mm (51.23%)
Bush 57.95mm (47.38%

	Mix   Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	41%	57%	2%	7.0%	9.7%	0.3%
Gore	39%	8%	91%	1%	3.1%	35.5%	0.4%
Bush	41%	90%	10%	0%	36.9%	4.1%	0.0%
Other	3%	13%	65%	16%	0.4%	2.0%	0.5%
	100%				47.38% 51.23% 1.21%
       Votes(mm)              57.95  62.65   1.48


*********************************************

SCENARIO II:
Final Exit Poll (1:25pm)- 13660 respondents:

Kerry 59.29mm (48.48%)
Bush 62.51mm (51.11%)


      MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
NO    17%	45%	54%	1%	7.7%	9.2%	0.2%
Gore  37%	10%	90%	1%	3.7%	33.3%	0.4%
Bush  43%	91%	9%	0%	39.1%	3.9%	0.0%
Other  3%	21%	71%	8%	0.6%	2.1%	0.2%
      100%				51.11% 48.48% 0.78%
       Votes(mm)               62.51  59.29  0.95


***********************************************

SCENARIO III:

Kerry	63.89mm (52.24%) 
Bush	57.60 (46.42%)


      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17.00%	41%	57%	2%	7.0%	9.7%	0.3%
Gore	40.24%	8%	91%	1%	3.2%	36.6%	0.4%
Bush	39.82%	90%	10%	0%	35.8%	4.0%	0.0%
Other	3.00%	13%	65%	16%	0.4%	2.0%	0.5%
	100%				46.42%	52.24%	1.22%
					57.60	 63.89	1.49
		

[Jon_da_brockman]

1. Ouch, thats a lot of numbers

It's to early for me, maybe I'll come back and vote in a few hours, lol.

[Peace Patriot]

2. Scenario III. I think Kerry won big--by a 7% to 10% margin.

I'm not good at math. But I can put two and two together, so to speak. The main reason for all the overt, highly visible Democratic voter suppression in Ohio was that a Kerry landslide was developing, and Plan A (the pre-arranged electronic voting percentages shaved off to Bush) wasn't sufficient to overcome the Kerry margin. They had to implement Plan B (shorting the Ohio minority and student precincts on voting machines, which turned away about 3% of the Ohio vote--according to even the lame DNC report which just got issued--unfair challenges of minority voters, intimidation and other dirty tricks--all quite risky but necessary). Plan C ("terrorist alert") wasn't needed (used only in Warren County but set up for the west coast), which tells me that Kerry didn't win by, say, 20%--his win was 10% or somewhat less.

The Democratic new voter registration in 2004 tells us who won--that's really all we need to know. Dems 60% vs. Repubs 40%. No enthusiasm for Bush. People flocking to the Democratic Party. And the breakdown of new voters, independents and Nader voters confirms it. They all voted for Kerry in big numbers. Who else is left? Oh, yeah, the people who got cheated in '00--the Gore voters--and the diehard Bushites (a minority).

Bush approval polls now slipping under 40%--where is his support NOW? Same place as their "invisible" get out the vote campaign. Nowhere.

[dchill]

3. I'll take what's behind door #3

This isn't just about Ohio. Or Florida. Or Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado...

I'm from PA, and I'm convinced the machines were "loaded for Bush." Unilect Patriot machines had huge percentages of "undervotes" for president in my area (Mercer County.) They won't be used next time - but instead we'll have ES&S optical scanners. Woo-hoo.

The Bush "victory" was set up way before November, and that's just documented fact to anyone with .5 brain.

[bleever]

4. Looks like if we're talking about live humans, the answer must be #3.

No hanging chads, or dimples.

Just 48.69 million Bush 2000 voters, who make up 39.8% of the voters in 2004.


X still equals x.

[byronius]

5. A Follow-Up Poll Question: Is this the biggest crime in American History?

Not including slavery, the extermination of the American Indian, or the general oppression of women and other groups of humans, of course.

[tommcintyre]

6. kick - In tribute to his tremendous contributions - WHY??? :( n/t