EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER: KEY RESULTS

[TruthIsAll]

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER	
7/9/05 5:26 AM

Given the data: 						
1- Bush 2-party vote (51.24%)						
2- Exit poll response by Partisanship category			
3- "Within Precinct Error" (WPE) by partisanship
category

Determine the following:						
1- Exit poll results - aggregate and by partisanship category	
2- K/B (alpha) - aggregate and by partisanship category 		
3- Required Bush percentage of refusers
4. Probability of deviation from exit poll to vote

KEY RESULTS:
1. Kerry won 52.15% of the 2-party vote, 3.39% higher than his
recorded 48.76%,
2. Kerry won 51.63% of the total vote, 3.35% higher than his
recorded 48.28%.
3. Kerry won 63.127mm votes, 4.10 more (6.50%) than his
recorded vote.
4. Bush won 57.929 mm votes, 4.10 less (7.08%) than his
recorded vote.
5. Of the 4.10mm vote shift, 3.45 were in competitive and
moderate Bush precincts.

6. Minimum aggregate alpha (k/b) is 1.155. The 1.12 stated at
AAPOR is NOT feasible.
7. Alpha is 1.062 in Kerry strongholds, compared to 1.214 in
other categories.
8. Alpha steadily increases from High Kerry (1.0)  to High
Bush (1.50) categories, indicating a positive correlation
between vote discrepancy and Bush partisanship.

9.Bush needed 55.13% of refusers for his recorded 51.24%
2-party vote, compared to 47.85% of responders.
						
10. The probability of a 3.39% discrepancy between the exit
poll and vote is 1 in 63 billion.



2004	2-PTY	2-PTY	TOTAL			
VOTE	PCT	VOTE	COUNT			
Kerry 	48.76%	59.027	48.28%			
Bush	51.24%	62.029	50.73%			
Total	100%	121.056	122.267			

EXIT POLL						
Kerry 	52.15%	63.127	51.63%			
Bush	47.85%	57.929	47.38%			
Diff	-3.39%	-4.10	-3.35%			
Diff/K	-6.50%	-6.50%	-6.50%			
Diff/B	-7.08%	-7.08%	-7.08%			
						
PROBABILITY of a 3.39% discrepancy between exit poll and vote:
 1 in	62,953,509,332				
						
PARTISAN ALPHA						
Kerry strongholds:1.062					
All Other: 1.214					
						

WEIGHTED AVERAGE (AGGREGATE)						
Response - R	53.59%					
K/B - alpha	1.158					

PERCENT OF EXIT POLL REFUSERS						
Kerry 	44.87%					
Bush	55.13%					
						
PARTISANSHIP RANGE CONSTRAINTS						
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90	
						
KERRY WIN%						
Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%	
Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%	
						
RESPONSE						
Min	56%	55%	52%	55%	53%	
Max	56%	55%	52%	55%	53%	
						
ALPHA (K/B)						
Min	0	0	0	0	0	
Max	10	10	10	10	10	
						
WPE						
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
						
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
						
						
		OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY				
						
	Poll	Count	%Diff	Poll	Count	Diff(mm)
Kerry	52.15%	48.76%	-3.39%	63.127	59.027	-4.100
Bush	47.85%	51.24%	3.39%	57.929	62.029	4.100
Diff	4.29%	-2.48%	-6.77%	5.199	-3.002	-8.201
						
Pship	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	Total
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90	1250
Votes	3.87	40.19	52.30	15.98	8.72	121.056
Pct	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%	100.0%
						
RESP.	56.0%	55.0%	52.0%	55.0%	53.0%	53.59%
DevAvg	2.4%	1.4%	-1.6%	1.4%	-0.6%	0.0%
						
ALPHA						
K/B	1.500	1.187	1.156	1.098	0.996	1.158
K/ 50B	75.0	59.3	57.8	54.9	49.8	57.9
DevAvg	29.5%	2.5%	-0.2%	-5.2%	-14.0%	0.0%

VOTE						
Kerry	0.77	13.11	28.58	9.59	6.97	59.027
Pct	20.0%	32.6%	54.6%	60.0%	80.0%	48.76%
						
Bush	3.10	27.08	23.72	6.39	1.74	62.029
Pct	80.0%	67.4%	45.4%	40.0%	20.0%	51.24%
						
RESPONDERS						
Kerry	0.97	14.34	30.80	10.06	6.96	63.127
Pct	25.0%	35.7%	58.9%	63.0%	79.9%	52.15%
						
Bush	2.91	25.85	21.49	5.92	1.76	57.929
Pct	75.0%	64.3%	41.1%	37.1%	20.2%	47.85%
						
REFUSERS						
Kerry	13.6%	28.9%	50.0%	56.4%	80.2%	44.87%
Bush	86.4%	71.1%	50.0%	43.6%	19.8%	55.13%

VOTE DEVIATION						
Kerry	-0.19	-1.23	-2.22	-0.47	0.01	-4.10
Pct	-20.0%	-8.5%	-7.2%	-4.7%	0.2%	-6.5%

WPE						
Calc	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	-6.77%
Diff	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

[TruthIsAll]

1. THE GRAPHS

1.Kerry Exit Poll vs. Actual Vote by Precinct category


2.Effect of Incremental Aggregate Alpha on Precinct Category Alpha


3.Alpha (K/B) by Precinct Category


4.WPE by Precinct Category


5.Exit Poll Response by Precinct Category


6.Sensitivity of Kerry Vote Pct and WPE to Aggregate Alpha (K/B)


7.Bush Percentage of Refusers by Precinct Category Required for Recorded Vote

[fasttense]

2. Well, well, Truth Is All, nice to see you never give up educating people.

Keep proving the obvious. Eventually they all will know. Thanks.

[papau]

3. Excellent as always :-)

:-)

[Dogmudgeon]

4. It can mean ONLY one thing --

That GOD intervened in the election so that His humble and wise servant, George W. Bush, would win a second term as our Courageous and Beloved Commander-In-Chief.

Amen.

--p!

[acmavm]

6. God? I think we blame way tooo much on God. Now if you'd have said

Satan, I might believe you. It just goes along with the dead Pope's theory of bush** being the anti-Christ.

[helderheid]

5. recommened and a request to all election reformers on DU

Please kick this thread in GD

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4057474

and get more DUers educated!

Good on ya TIA!

[kster]

7. kick.nt

[tommcintyre]

8. kick - In tribute to his tremendous contributions - WHY??? :( n/t