WTF !! OHIO Registered Democrats for 5/2004-11/2004

[adolfo]

OHIO REGISTERED DEMOCRATS HISTORY REPORT


County		Dems 11/2004	Dems 5/2004		Difference
ADAMS		1,935		2,153			-218
ALLEN		9,424		9,525			-101
ASHLAND		4,551		4,878			-327
ASHTABULA	15,898		13,880			2,018
ATHENS		9,665		10,826			-1,161
AUGLAIZE	4,385		3,936			449
BELMONT		17,943		18,047			-104
BROWN		4,695		4,691			4
BUTLER		22,384		22,477			-93
CARROLL		3,772		3,786			-14
CHAMPAIGN	3,227		3,226			1
CLARK		18,272		18,233			39
CLERMONT	10,191		10,248			-57
CLINTON		2,039		2,034			5
COLUMBIANA	17,929		14,270			3,659
COSHOCTON	4,443		4,455			-12
CRAWFORD	5,061		5,146			-85
CUYAHOGA	237,054		238,330			-1,276
DARKE		5,415		5,452			-37
DEFIANCE	4,324		3,978			346
DELAWARE	12,506		11,823			683
ERIE		13,792		14,856			-1,064
FAIRFIELD	12,795		12,885			-90
FAYETTE		1,378		1,759			-381
FRANKLIN	110,930		111,461			-531
FULTON		4,091		4,099			-8
GALLIA		4,397		3,028			1,369
GEAUGA		12,938		10,219			2,719
GREENE		16,186		16,150			36
GUERNSEY	4,605		4,620			-15
HAMILTON	58,360		63,449			-5,089
HANCOCK		5,034		4,288			746
HARDIN		2,742		2,750			-8
HARRISON	3,704		3,703			1
HENRY		2,932		2,991			-59
HIGHLAND	2,570		2,574			-4
HOCKING		3,292		3,296			-4
HOLMES		1,908		1,679			229
HURON		5,342		5,342			0
JACKSON		2,495		2,506			-11
JEFFERSON	18,032		18,088			-56
KNOX		4,545		4,546			-1
LAKE		30,716		32,990			-2,274
LAWRENCE	6,513		5,860			653
LICKING		15,533		15,685			-152
LOGAN		3,356		3,357			-1
LORAIN		52,227		45,338			6,889
LUCAS		46,453		46,846			-393
MADISON		2,930		2,933			-3
MAHONING	62,574		63,338			-764
MARION		8,375		8,405			-30
MEDINA		17,826		17,990			-164
MEIGS		2,471		2,478			-7
MERCER		6,004		5,265			739
MIAMI		7,495		7,496			-1
MONROE		5,180		5,190			-10
MONTGOMERY	60,323		60,373			-50
MORGAN		1,495		1,498			-3
MORROW		3,373		3,395			-22
MUSKINGUM	7,416		7,429			-13
NOBLE		2,142		2,144			-2
OTTAWA		6,557		5,858			699
PAULDING	2,539		2,545			-6
PERRY		4,611		4,164			447
PICKAWAY	5,517		5,527			-10
PIKE		2,905		3,394			-489
PORTAGE		24,274		24,369			-95
PREBLE		3,976		3,976			0
PUTNAM		4,881		4,890			-9
RICHLAND	14,820		16,580			-1,760
ROSS		7,475		7,494			-19
SANDUSKY	7,908		6,762			1,146
SCIOTO		6,678		9,973			-3,295
SENECA		6,973		7,014			-41
SHELBY		4,779		4,818			-39
STARK		55,699		55,881			-182
SUMMIT		76,854		76,895			-41
TRUMBULL	56,479		56,803			-324
TUSCARAWAS	11,045		13,145			-2,100
UNION		3,120		3,126			-6
VAN WERT	2,261		2,269			-8
VINTON		1,564		1,570			-6
WARREN		10,243		10,323			-80
WASHINGTON	7,575		4,777			2,798
WAYNE		10,198		10,311			-113
WILLIAMS	2,395		2,984			-589
WOOD		12,272		12,524			-252
WYANDOT		1,898		1,920			-22

		1,405,079	1,403,585		1,494

[MercutioATC]

1. Yes? Statistically unchanged 5/04-11/04.

What's your point?

[adolfo]

2. My Question,..

Is there a reasonable explanation?

[Tigress DEM]

42. Blackwell Cheated. Ohio DEMs registration up 250% in '04 VS '00.

Going back to the voter registration information out prior to Nov 2004 there is no way that DEMs could have registered so heavily in Ohio and shown up with less registration than in 2004 without severe interference by Blackwell.

http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/092704K.shtml

<snip>
A Big Increase of New Voters in Swing States
By Ford Fessenden
The New York Times

Sunday 26 September 2004

COLUMBUS, Ohio - A sweeping voter registration campaign in heavily Democratic areas has added tens of thousands of new voters to the rolls in the swing states of Ohio and Florida, a surge that has far exceeded the efforts of Republicans in both states, a review of registration data shows.

The analysis by The New York Times of county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio - primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods - new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas. A similar pattern is apparent in Florida: in the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration is 60 percent higher than in 2000, while it has risen just 12 percent in the heaviest Republican areas.

[adolfo]

4. Registered Republicans History Report

County		Reps 11/2004	Reps 5/2004		Difference
ADAMS		4,013		4,461 			-448
ALLEN		17,382		17,547 			-165
ASHLAND		9,223		9,933 			-710
ASHTABULA	11,561		8,598 			2,963
ATHENS		2,589		3,258 			-669
AUGLAIZE	8,541		6,474 			2,067
BELMONT		3,723		3,757 			-34
BROWN		3,826		3,821 			5
BUTLER		41,089		41,205 			-116
CARROLL		4,305		4,312 			-7
CHAMPAIGN	6,552		6,546 			6
CLARK		15,812		15,781 			31
CLERMONT	22,457		22,577 			-120
CLINTON		6,737		6,721 			16
COLUMBIANA	14,035		9,380 			4,655
COSHOCTON	5,869		5,880 			-11
CRAWFORD	5,058		5,133 			-75
CUYAHOGA	68,920		69,282 			-362
DARKE		7,142		7,155 			-13
DEFIANCE	7,363		6,350 			1,013
DELAWARE	27,462		21,838 			5,624
ERIE		5,238		6,947 			-1,709
FAIRFIELD	21,996		22,140 			-144
FAYETTE		4,009		4,885 			-876
FRANKLIN	77,997		79,718 			-1,721
FULTON		7,744		7,766 			-22
GALLIA		7,325		5,142 			2,183
GEAUGA		20,533		14,302 			6,231
GREENE		23,506		23,456 			50
GUERNSEY	4,473		4,502 			-29
HAMILTON	66,694		76,255 			-9,561
HANCOCK		18,873		15,312 			3,561
HARDIN		5,258		5,266 			-8
HARRISON	1,763		1,765 			-2
HENRY		5,875		6,047 			-172
HIGHLAND	4,850		4,858 			-8
HOCKING		2,308		2,311 			-3
HOLMES		5,569		4,482 			1,087
HURON		5,754		5,756 			-2
JACKSON		6,064		6,087 			-23
JEFFERSON	5,018		5,034 			-16
KNOX		6,561		6,563 			-2
LAKE		22,059		25,425 			-3,366
LAWRENCE	7,623		6,922 			701
LICKING		20,556		20,737 			-181
LOGAN		8,042		8,046 			-4
LORAIN		27,963		19,396 			8,567
LUCAS		17,011		17,146 			-135
MADISON		5,877		5,876 			1
MAHONING	14,545		14,799 			-254
MARION		7,785		7,824 			-39
MEDINA		19,237		19,425 			-188
MEIGS		4,106		4,127 			-21
MERCER		8,085		6,766 			1,319
MIAMI		12,460		12,466 			-6
MONROE		1,001		1,002 			-1
MONTGOMERY	57,440		57,880 			-440
MORGAN		3,143		3,146 			-3
MORROW		5,241		5,296 			-55
MUSKINGUM	10,880		10,887 			-7
NOBLE		2,682		2,691 			-9
OTTAWA		5,129		3,515 			1,614
PAULDING	3,306		3,318 			-12
PERRY		4,884		4,132 			752
PICKAWAY	4,957		4,972 			-15
PIKE		1,701		2,492 			-791
PORTAGE		10,945		11,098 			-153
PREBLE		6,466		6,464 			2
PUTNAM		6,333		6,343 			-10
RICHLAND	15,148		16,797 			-1,649
ROSS		5,484		5,512 			-28
SANDUSKY	9,520		7,457 			2,063
SCIOTO		7,391		6,018 			1,373
SENECA		9,303		9,360 			-57
SHELBY		4,628		4,675 			-47
STARK		38,514		38,646 			-132
SUMMIT		38,137		38,149 			-12
TRUMBULL	12,066		12,111 			-45
TUSCARAWAS	4,244		5,659 			-1,415
UNION		7,899		7,924 			-25
VAN WERT	5,802		5,829 			-27
VINTON		1,878		1,885 			-7
WARREN		28,068		28,223 			-155
WASHINGTON	9,097		4,917 			4,180
WAYNE		15,605		15,692 			-87
WILLIAMS	5,634		7,360 			-1,726
WOOD		14,584		14,834 			-250
WYANDOT		3,631		3,662 			-31

		1,137,157	1,115,504		21,653

[MercutioATC]

5. How about that! Also statistically unchanged...

I don't think I'm seeing your point..

[adolfo]

7. You didn't bother answering my first question.

Is there a reasonable explanation?

Here is another question,

There is a significant difference in gain between Registered
Reps and Dems in Ohio. Do you see anything wrong with that?


Gain from 5/2004-11/2004

Democrats       +0.11%
Republicans     +1.94%

Difference      -1.83%

[MercutioATC]

23. A reasonable explanation for WHAT??

Republicans gained 1.83% more ground than Democrats in the last few months before the election? What's so mysterious about that?

One explanation is that Republicans did a better job of registering voters in Ohio than Democrats did...not MUCH better, just 1.83% better.

[aquart]

3. Well, if I were a conspiracist...

I would say that someone who knew what "statistically unchanged" meant could have altered registrations so that when the votes were realigned, it would not seem significant.

But that would be only if I believed in conspiracies and if all the registrations were on computer.

[wakeme2008]

6. What would be interesting is numbers for 5/2005

For all those counties that lost Democrats just before the election, did they get them back after the election.

If I was a registered Dem and I went to vote in a primary I would be very upset to find that I was NOW a Repug....

[NoBushSpokenHere]

8. This report cannot be accurate because in Ohio

the only time you declare your political party is in the primaries. During registration and general elections, party affiliation is not asked. The only way to know is by phone banking and asking, until the next primary BUT we all know there won't be many of these new registrants that will ever vote again.

[adolfo]

9. Those registrants are categorized as "Non-Partisan"

The analysis was made from reports gathered directly from the Ohio Office. My original intention was to confirm a NY Times article on massive Democratic increases in Ohio.

Original DU Post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=385084&mesg_id=385084

According to the "official" reports there was no significant Dem increase.

[mod mom]

28. Adolfo, what Ohio Office are you referring to? If you mean directly from

the parties, does that imply both the Ohio Dem Pary and Ohio Repub Party released this info?

[adolfo]

37. Ohio SOS

The reports are based on records provided by the Ohio Secretary of State.

Excel File:

http://www.recountflorida.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Downloads&file=index&req=getit&lid=8

[mod mom]

40. Oh, compliments of the bribemeister, $50,000 strong and counting!

thanks for the info. This is actually a serious topic that the OHio Dems are ignoring (surprise, surprise). It helps when the Dems provide the sensitive info (like Lucas County in October '04 and more recently Franklin county. ) I bet Mr Blackwell et al are purging away as fast as they can get their grimey fingers on those Dem lists.

[adolfo]

10. Ohio Registered Non-Partisan History Report

County		NP 11/2004	NP 5/2004		Difference
ADAMS		11,673		9,839			1,834
ALLEN		40,984		35,657			5,327
ASHLAND		19,418		17,812			1,606
ASHTABULA	34,730		35,521			-791
ATHENS		33,218		25,102			8,116
AUGLAIZE	19,800		20,880			-1,080
BELMONT		25,827		23,276			2,551
BROWN		20,820		18,065			2,755
BUTLER		175,756		150,994			24,762
CARROLL		12,545		11,350			1,195
CHAMPAIGN	16,498		14,194			2,304
CLARK		58,098		47,300			10,798
CLERMONT	93,167		80,392			12,775
CLINTON		17,095		14,162			2,933
COLUMBIANA	47,254		52,096			-4,842
COSHOCTON	12,496		11,156			1,340
CRAWFORD	19,102		17,761			1,341
CUYAHOGA	714,801		596,490			118,311
DARKE		26,600		24,614			1,986
DEFIANCE	14,365		13,966			399
DELAWARE	59,944		54,572			5,372
ERIE		35,388		30,065			5,323
FAIRFIELD	56,707		47,561			9,146
FAYETTE		10,858		7,869			2,989
FRANKLIN	657,016		563,748			93,268
FULTON		17,122		15,130			1,992
GALLIA		11,710		14,640			-2,930
GEAUGA		31,538		35,026			-3,488
GREENE		65,382		53,628			11,754
GUERNSEY	18,236		16,772			1,464
HAMILTON	435,419		365,938			69,481
HANCOCK		25,824		26,561			-737
HARDIN		11,403		10,321			1,082
HARRISON	6,293		5,825			468
HENRY		10,980		9,744			1,236
HIGHLAND	21,712		19,198			2,514
HOCKING		12,610		11,405			1,205
HOLMES		10,447		10,777			-330
HURON		27,246		24,931			2,315
JACKSON		16,251		15,376			875
JEFFERSON	27,099		23,894			3,205
KNOX		26,404		22,027			4,377
LAKE		107,793		89,998			17,795
LAWRENCE	27,205		25,716			1,489
LICKING		76,613		64,327			12,286
LOGAN		18,461		16,642			1,819
LORAIN		116,677		113,438			3,239
LUCAS		221,291		231,192			-9,901
MADISON		14,223		11,961			2,262
MAHONING	118,092		108,859			9,233
MARION		27,128		25,213			1,915
MEDINA		81,155		69,496			11,659
MEIGS		8,609		7,876			733
MERCER		18,561		18,773			-212
MIAMI		54,408		49,078			5,330
MONROE		4,276		3,909			367
MONTGOMERY	277,380		235,406			41,974
MORGAN		4,813		4,322			491
MORROW		15,635		13,888			1,747
MUSKINGUM	33,251		29,215			4,036
NOBLE		4,240		3,926			314
OTTAWA		18,583		18,699			-116
PAULDING	8,748		8,150			598
PERRY		13,663		13,587			76
PICKAWAY	19,898		16,506			3,392
PIKE		15,410		12,883			2,527
PORTAGE		76,258		64,491			11,767
PREBLE		17,597		15,828			1,769
PUTNAM		13,722		12,844			878
RICHLAND	62,671		52,369			10,302
ROSS		30,416		27,186			3,230
SANDUSKY	20,459		22,333			-1,874
SCIOTO		33,947		27,177			6,770
SENECA		21,695		18,709			2,986
SHELBY		19,053		16,539			2,514
STARK		177,553		154,295			23,258
SUMMIT		261,446		216,518			44,928
TRUMBULL	74,191		62,897			11,294
TUSCARAWAS	42,041		34,394			7,647
UNION		18,957		16,470			2,487
VAN WERT	13,239		12,263			976
VINTON		5,240		4,581			659
WARREN		87,608		72,342			15,266
WASHINGTON	23,678		28,754			-5,076
WAYNE		43,869		37,693			6,176
WILLIAMS	19,106		15,468			3,638
WOOD		63,070		54,030			9,040
WYANDOT		10,303		9,627			676

		5,452,068	4,775,503		676,565

[Bill Bored]

13. Look at county partisanship and see if there is a correlation

between registration increases/decreases and Dem/Repub vote percentage, or something.

Again TFC has been looking at this. You should talk to him so as not to duplicate your efforts.

[Tigress DEM]

41. Ah, don't sell Ohio DEMs short. They'll vote again - and BE Counted!.

These are people who stood outside in the rain for 10 hours. WE just have to keep letting them know that the TRUTH is out there and WE know THE VOTERS of Ohio didn't let us down, Ken Blackwell and his hench monkey's did.

It's obvious from this showing of loss of DEM voters statewide that something is wrong, but add to that the fact that DEMs were AHEAD on voter registration going into Nov 2004. Only several combined sleazy tactics of voter disenfranchisement could produce these kind of numbers.



From Conyer's book, "What Went Wrong In Ohio?" Page 9...

The Democratic Party also had vastly out-performed its Republican counterparts in registering voters in this key state. 4

Notes Pg 117

4 Ford Fessenden, "A Big Increase of New Voters in Swing States," New York Times, Sept 26, 2004.

[adolfo]

35. OHIO REGISTRATION TOTALS 11/2004-4/2005

OHIO REGISTRATION TOTALS 11/2004-4/2005


County		 4-2005		11-2004		Diff		%

ADAMS		17,608 		17,621		-13		-0.07%
ALLEN		68,342 		67,790		552		0.81%
ASHLAND		34,886 		33,192		1,694		5.10%
ASHTABULA	62,270 		62,189		81		0.13%
ATHENS		47,533 		45,472		2,061		4.53%
AUGLAIZE	32,774 		32,726		48		0.15%
BELMONT		43,004 		47,493		-4,489		-9.45%
BROWN		29,238 		29,341		-103		-0.35%
BUTLER		240,074 	239,229		845		0.35%
CARROLL		19,768 		20,622		-854		-4.14%
CHAMPAIGN	25,375 		26,277		-902		-3.43%
CLARK		89,164 		92,182		-3,018		-3.27%
CLERMONT	126,644 	125,815		829		0.66%
CLINTON		24,760 		25,871		-1,111		-4.29%
COLUMBIANA	78,698 		79,218		-520		-0.66%
COSHOCTON	22,209 		22,808		-599		-2.63%
CRAWFORD	29,472 		29,221		251		0.86%
CUYAHOGA	1,037,998 	1,020,775	17,223		1.69%
DARKE		38,355 		39,157		-802		-2.05%
DEFIANCE	25,483 		26,052		-569		-2.18%
DELAWARE	100,983 	99,912		1,071		1.07%
ERIE		54,600 		54,418		182		0.33%
FAIRFIELD	92,434 		91,498		936		1.02%
FAYETTE		16,320 		16,245		75		0.46%
FRANKLIN	851,777 	845,943		5,834		0.69%
FULTON		28,268 		28,957		-689		-2.38%
GALLIA		22,948 		23,432		-484		-2.07%
GEAUGA		65,165 		65,009		156		0.24%
GREENE		105,333 	105,074		259		0.25%
GUERNSEY	26,914 		27,314		-400		-1.46%
HAMILTON	571,887 	560,473		11,414		2.04%
HANCOCK		49,903 		49,731		172		0.35%
HARDIN		18,667 		19,403		-736		-3.79%
HARRISON	11,446 		11,760		-314		-2.67%
HENRY		19,661 		19,787		-126		-0.64%
HIGHLAND	28,687 		29,132		-445		-1.53%
HOCKING		18,196 		18,210		-14		-0.08%
HOLMES		17,825 		17,924		-99		-0.55%
HURON		35,727 		38,342		-2,615		-6.82%
JACKSON		24,217 		24,810		-593		-2.39%
JEFFERSON	49,461 		50,149		-688		-1.37%
KNOX		36,252 		37,510		-1,258		-3.35%
LAKE		160,676 	160,568		108		0.07%
LAWRENCE	41,753 		41,341		412		1.00%
LICKING		112,082 	112,702		-620		-0.55%
LOGAN		29,128 		29,859		-731		-2.45%
LORAIN		198,388 	196,867		1,521		0.77%
LUCAS		303,082 	284,755		18,327		6.44%
MADISON		23,442 		23,030		412		1.79%
MAHONING	196,882 	195,211		1,671		0.86%
MARION		43,346 		43,288		58		0.13%
MEDINA		118,780 	118,218		562		0.48%
MEIGS		15,159 		15,186		-27		-0.18%
MERCER		30,844 		32,650		-1,806		-5.53%
MIAMI		71,739 		74,363		-2,624		-3.53%
MONROE		10,251 		10,457		-206		-1.97%
MONTGOMERY	393,642 	395,143		-1,501		-0.38%
MORGAN		9,355 		9,451		-96		-1.02%
MORROW		24,326 		24,249		77		0.32%
MUSKINGUM	51,512 		51,547		-35		-0.07%
NOBLE		8,826 		9,064		-238		-2.63%
OTTAWA		30,381 		30,269		112		0.37%
PAULDING	14,208 		14,593		-385		-2.64%
PERRY		23,476 		23,158		318		1.37%
PICKAWAY	30,285 		30,372		-87		-0.29%
PIKE		19,531 		20,016		-485		-2.42%
PORTAGE		109,151 	111,477		-2,326		-2.09%
PREBLE		27,804 		28,039		-235		-0.84%
PUTNAM		24,358 		24,936		-578		-2.32%
RICHLAND	90,696 		92,639		-1,943		-2.10%
ROSS		43,874 		43,375		499		1.15%
SANDUSKY	39,338 		37,887		1,451		3.83%
SCIOTO		48,077 		48,016		61		0.13%
SENECA		37,403 		37,971		-568		-1.50%
SHELBY		28,768 		28,460		308		1.08%
STARK		272,894 	271,766		1,128		0.42%
SUMMIT		365,800 	376,437		-10,637		-2.83%
TRUMBULL	142,799 	142,736		63		0.04%
TUSCARAWAS	56,520 		57,330		-810		-1.41%
UNION		29,526 		29,976		-450		-1.50%
VAN WERT	21,035 		21,302		-267		-1.25%
VINTON		8,541 		8,682		-141		-1.62%
WARREN		126,910 	125,919		991		0.79%
WASHINGTON	40,475 		40,350		125		0.31%
WAYNE		69,944 		69,672		272		0.39%
WILLIAMS	26,674 		27,135		-461		-1.70%
WOOD		93,442 		89,926		3,516		3.91%
WYANDOT		15,841 		15,832		9		0.06%
							
		8,021,290 	7,994,304	26,986		0.34%

[Bill Bored]

11. Time for Change has been looking into this.

One explanation is purging.

[adolfo]

14. This post is to gain more opinions on the data itself

I was going to link to TimeforChange's post but the editing period has expired.

[John Q. Citizen]

12. Either the Demos voter registration drive was a complete

disaster, or there is another reason for the overall consistant registration numbers.

[mackdaddy]

15. All Voter Registration Data is Networked State Wide...

Although the card tabulator in many counties such as here in Hocking county is older and standalone, the Voter Registration Database is on a fairly current Server network. This network is administrated by Triad, and is accessible remotely as Triad does much of the maintenance this way. (not sure if dial up or other) Even after we get Diebold Touchscreen machines, and a Gems tabulator, Triad will still have the Voter Admin contract.
Also, Blackwell oversaw the installation of high speed data and voice connections to each of the 88 county BOE offices in the state. According to Fitrakas at Freepress.org , The SOS office has a "back door" access, and direct connection to every one of these local BOE office network systems. (Our card reader/tabulator was so old, Triad had to come in person to "work" on it.)

One of the complaints that Sherole Eaton had against the Hocking county (Republican) Supervisor of Elections was that she was shredding election documents. Specifically she was shredding voter registration originals.

Just an interesting set of items of interest.

One question: how could the numbers of a particular party go UP if there were no intervening primary to collect the party affiliation numbers? They could go down by Purging voter roles, but not up..

[sunnystarr]

16. I was checking on one county - Hamilton

because it showed that Democrats declined from May to Nov of 04 by 5,089. So I looked at the other post that had registered Republicans and that showed that registered Republicans declined in Hamilton County by 9,561 in the same period.

Then I added the Dems and Repukes from both posts in Hamilton County which came to 125,054.

I then went to the Hamilton County website http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/archiveresults.asp and checked on the Nov 2, 2004 results and got the following:

GENERAL ELECTION RECOUNT
HAMILTON COUNTY, OHIO
NOVEMBER 2, 2004


PRC CNT - TOTAL -1013- . . . . . . 1,013 100.00

Registered Voters - TOTAL . . . . . 573,612
Ballots Cast - TOTAL . . . . . . . 433,058


A C C U M U L A T E D T O T A L S
7:52 28-Dec-2004 Combined Regular & Absentee Ballots
GENERAL ELECTION RECOUNT
HAMILTON COUNTY, OHIO
NOVEMBER 2, 2004
Total Pct
PRESIDENT & VICE PRESIDENT
REP - BUSH / CHENEY . . . . . . 222,616 52.51
DEM - KERRY / EDWARDS . . . . . . 199,679 47.10
OPC - BADNARIK / CAMPAGNA . . . . 1,021 0.24
OPC - PEROUTKA / BALDWIN . . . . . 621 0.15
COBB / LaMARCHE (WRITE-IN) . . 56 0.02
HARRIS / TROWE (WRITE-IN). . . 9 0.00
SCHRINER / MARLINSKI (WRITE-IN). 7 0.00
DUNCAN / CULBERTSON (WRITE-IN) . 3 0.00
PARKER / GUTIERREZ (WRITE-IN) . 0 0.00
ZYCH / FULLERTON (WRITE-IN) . . 0 0.00

From this I'm to believe that 448,558 out of 573,612 (78.2%)registered voters in Hamilton County are registered Independent.

What am I missing here?

Also why would registered voters for both parties decline from May to Nov of 04 in an election that saw an unprecedented increase in voter registration across the country, including Ohio.

[adolfo]

17. Something is wrong.

The report (xls file) I received from the BOE does not match
the “official count” on their web site. The file contains many
other registration totals so it is highly unlikely to be an
error. I also find it weird that November 2000 is not listed
even though it goes back to 1999.

Here is the file:

http://www.recountflorida.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Downloads&file=index&req=getit&lid=8


Why would there be a different set of registration totals for
the same election period?


Here are the differences calculated. Maybe someone here can
make more sense of what is going on. 

DIFFERENCES

County		XLS File	Web site		Difference
ADAMS		17,621		17,696			-75
ALLEN		67,790		68,151			-361
ASHLAND		33,192		34,850			-1,658
ASHTABULA	62,189		62,926			-737
ATHENS		45,472		45,103			369
AUGLAIZE	32,726		33,094			-368
BELMONT		47,493		44,231			3,262
BROWN		29,341		28,922			419
BUTLER		239,229		238,022			1,207
CARROLL		20,622		20,076			546
CHAMPAIGN	26,277		25,376			901
CLARK		92,182		89,721			2,461
CLERMONT	125,815		125,832			-17
CLINTON		25,871		25,092			779
COLUMBIANA	79,218		78,536			682
COSHOCTON	22,808		22,679			129
CRAWFORD	29,221		29,591			-370
CUYAHOGA	1,020,775	1,005,807		14,968
DARKE		39,157		38,290			867
DEFIANCE	26,052		25,849			203
DELAWARE	99,912		100,676			-764
ERIE		54,418		55,517			-1,099
FAIRFIELD	91,498		91,498			0
FAYETTE		16,245		16,094			151
FRANKLIN	845,943		845,720			223
FULTON		28,957		28,561			396
GALLIA		23,432		23,568			-136
GEAUGA		65,009		65,396			-387
GREENE		105,074		105,079			-5
GUERNSEY	27,314		26,889			425
HAMILTON	560,473		573,612			-13,139
HANCOCK		49,731		49,617			114
HARDIN		19,403		18,921			482
HARRISON	11,760		11,475			285
HENRY		19,787		19,685			102
HIGHLAND	29,132		28,243			889
HOCKING		18,210		18,209			1
HOLMES		17,924		17,870			54
HURON		38,342		39,352			-1,010
JACKSON		24,810		23,998			812
JEFFERSON	50,149		49,656			493
KNOX		37,510		36,972			538
LAKE		160,568		160,196			372
LAWRENCE	41,341		41,524			-183
LICKING		112,702		111,387			1,315
LOGAN		29,859		29,406			453
LORAIN		196,867		196,601			266
LUCAS		284,755		300,137			-15,382
MADISON		23,030		23,183			-153
MAHONING	195,211		194,903			308
MARION		43,288		43,323			-35
MEDINA		118,218		118,268			-50
MEIGS		15,186		15,205			-19
MERCER		32,650		31,306			1,344
MIAMI		74,363		72,169			2,194
MONROE		10,457		10,350			107
MONTGOMERY	395,143		391,914			3,229
MORGAN		9,451		9,358			93
MORROW		24,249		24,248			1
MUSKINGUM	51,547		51,552			-5
NOBLE		9,064		8,879			185
OTTAWA		30,269		30,334			-65
PAULDING	14,593		14,226			367
PERRY		23,158		23,480			-322
PICKAWAY	30,372		30,045			327
PIKE		20,016		19,655			361
PORTAGE		111,477		109,565			1,912
PREBLE		28,039		28,137			-98
PUTNAM		24,936		24,579			357
RICHLAND	92,639		91,311			1,328
ROSS		43,375		43,463			-88
SANDUSKY	37,887		39,407			-1,520
SCIOTO		48,016		48,005			11
SENECA		37,971		37,974			-3
SHELBY		28,460		28,460			0
STARK		271,766		267,939			3,827
SUMMIT		376,437		368,858			7,579
TRUMBULL	142,736		142,436			300
TUSCARAWAS	57,330		55,656			1,674
UNION		29,976		30,200			-224
VAN WERT	21,302		21,100			202
VINTON		8,682		8,527			155
WARREN		125,919		125,165			754
WASHINGTON	40,350		40,889			-539
WAYNE		69,672		69,810			-138
WILLIAMS	27,135		26,722			413
WOOD		89,926		90,688			-762
WYANDOT		15,832		15,834			-2

		7,994,304	7,972,826		21,478

[liam_laddie]

18. Ham Cty numbers

I live here, maybe this'll assist. As mentioned upthread, party
affiliation is noted ONLY by voting in that party's primary. The total
numbers you list agree pretty well with the "usual" 20-25% pathetic turnout of registered voters, in primaries. Those who don't exercise the franchise are listed as '"non" (non-aligned, or independent.)

The decline in R numbers may have to do with the city's, and I think county's, declining population...white flight and all.
And there was likely a "timely" purge of voter rolls by the SOS
office. I know of several black voters whose names should have been there, but weren't. Can you spell corruption?

Another curiosity - in 2000, only (17) precincts had turnouts of 85% or higher. In 2004, it was (185), with Gore and Kerry taking very, very few. Kinda suspicious, I'll have to find my spreadsheet, if interested in the actual numbers.

Another thing, the new registration drives took place in the July-
October period, so new regitrants would not have voted in the spring 2004 primaries, to establish valid party comparisons.
The system and schedule works against good statistical analysis.

[adolfo]

19. Hard Analysis

You are right, Ohio’s registration system works against good statistical analysis. Please send me that info if you can find it.

adolfo(at)recountflorida.com

Have you read post #4 and #17 ? Isn’t it odd how the totals are similar?

[Time for change]

20. I have Ohio SOS registration numbers for 11-00, 3-04, and 11-04

That's what I used to do the analysis that I described in my post.
These are total registration numbers, not broken down by party.

Here is the link for the 2000 - 2004 registration numbers:
http://www.feminist.org/pdfs/OH_election_precert.pdf . They also contain 2001-2003.

If you want the March 2004 numbers, you'll have to send me a pm with your e-mail address, so that I can send you the Excell file.

[Time for change]

21. I did an identical analysis as described in my thread with your BOE #s

I used the same methods as described in this thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=385084&mesg_id=385084 .
Briefly, I assumed the same Kerry and Bush percentage of the vote in each county as indicated by the official 2004 tallies, with the total number of votes in each county proportional to the total voters registered in the county.

What I found, using the registration figures in the XLS spreadsheet that you obtained from the BOEs was that Kerry would have done almost the same with those registration numbers than he actually did, losing by 118,332 instead of 118,426.

Remember, going back to my post, that if you use the March 04 registration numbers, Kerry would have lost by 112,081. But between March and November, according to journalists who reported on this, there were massive increases in voter registration disproportionately in Democratic counties, such that Kerry should have won by at the very least an additional 37 K votes in Cuyahoga County alone.

In other words, regardless of which sets of "official" numbers we use, they all fail to account for the massive increases in registration in Democratic counties. And that's a major reason why we need to consider fraud as an explanation for this.

[adolfo]

24. Agreed

The discrepancies between the “official” totals and the xls
report could probably explain how some of the Dem
registrations may have been adjusted. 

There is a total difference of 21,478 between them.

DIFFERENCES

County		XLS File	Web site		Difference
ADAMS		17,621		17,696			-75
ALLEN		67,790		68,151			-361
ASHLAND		33,192		34,850			-1,658
ASHTABULA	62,189		62,926			-737
ATHENS		45,472		45,103			369
AUGLAIZE	32,726		33,094			-368
BELMONT		47,493		44,231			3,262
BROWN		29,341		28,922			419
BUTLER		239,229		238,022			1,207
CARROLL		20,622		20,076			546
CHAMPAIGN	26,277		25,376			901
CLARK		92,182		89,721			2,461
CLERMONT	125,815		125,832			-17
CLINTON		25,871		25,092			779
COLUMBIANA	79,218		78,536			682
COSHOCTON	22,808		22,679			129
CRAWFORD	29,221		29,591			-370
CUYAHOGA	1,020,775	1,005,807		14,968
DARKE		39,157		38,290			867
DEFIANCE	26,052		25,849			203
DELAWARE	99,912		100,676			-764
ERIE		54,418		55,517			-1,099
FAIRFIELD	91,498		91,498			0
FAYETTE		16,245		16,094			151
FRANKLIN	845,943		845,720			223
FULTON		28,957		28,561			396
GALLIA		23,432		23,568			-136
GEAUGA		65,009		65,396			-387
GREENE		105,074		105,079			-5
GUERNSEY	27,314		26,889			425
HAMILTON	560,473		573,612			-13,139
HANCOCK		49,731		49,617			114
HARDIN		19,403		18,921			482
HARRISON	11,760		11,475			285
HENRY		19,787		19,685			102
HIGHLAND	29,132		28,243			889
HOCKING		18,210		18,209			1
HOLMES		17,924		17,870			54
HURON		38,342		39,352			-1,010
JACKSON		24,810		23,998			812
JEFFERSON	50,149		49,656			493
KNOX		37,510		36,972			538
LAKE		160,568		160,196			372
LAWRENCE	41,341		41,524			-183
LICKING		112,702		111,387			1,315
LOGAN		29,859		29,406			453
LORAIN		196,867		196,601			266
LUCAS		284,755		300,137			-15,382
MADISON		23,030		23,183			-153
MAHONING	195,211		194,903			308
MARION		43,288		43,323			-35
MEDINA		118,218		118,268			-50
MEIGS		15,186		15,205			-19
MERCER		32,650		31,306			1,344
MIAMI		74,363		72,169			2,194
MONROE		10,457		10,350			107
MONTGOMERY	395,143		391,914			3,229
MORGAN		9,451		9,358			93
MORROW		24,249		24,248			1
MUSKINGUM	51,547		51,552			-5
NOBLE		9,064		8,879			185
OTTAWA		30,269		30,334			-65
PAULDING	14,593		14,226			367
PERRY		23,158		23,480			-322
PICKAWAY	30,372		30,045			327
PIKE		20,016		19,655			361
PORTAGE		111,477		109,565			1,912
PREBLE		28,039		28,137			-98
PUTNAM		24,936		24,579			357
RICHLAND	92,639		91,311			1,328
ROSS		43,375		43,463			-88
SANDUSKY	37,887		39,407			-1,520
SCIOTO		48,016		48,005			11
SENECA		37,971		37,974			-3
SHELBY		28,460		28,460			0
STARK		271,766		267,939			3,827
SUMMIT		376,437		368,858			7,579
TRUMBULL	142,736		142,436			300
TUSCARAWAS	57,330		55,656			1,674
UNION		29,976		30,200			-224
VAN WERT	21,302		21,100			202
VINTON		8,682		8,527			155
WARREN		125,919		125,165			754
WASHINGTON	40,350		40,889			-539
WAYNE		69,672		69,810			-138
WILLIAMS	27,135		26,722			413
WOOD		89,926		90,688			-762
WYANDOT		15,832		15,834			-2

		7,994,304	7,972,826		21,478

[NoBushSpokenHere]

25. Looking at Hocking County Turn Out by Precinct

Strange variations in Turn Out....

Hocking County
Precinct Reg Voters Ballots Cast
Logan 1B 371 306 82.48%
Logan 1C 443 345 77.88%
Logan 1D 374 280 74.87%
Logan 2A 498 378 75.90%
Logan 2B 445 334 75.06%
Logan 3A 370 228 61.62%
Logan 3B 295 189 64.07%
Logan 3C 515 438 85.05%
Logan 4B 536 367 68.47%
Logan 4C 473 333 70.40%
Benton 700 453 64.71%
Falls 1 460 372 80.87%
Falls 2 740 558 75.41%
Falls 3 447 337 75.39%
Falls 4 645 534 82.79%
Falls 5 882 621 70.41%
Good Hope 1 517 405 78.34%
Good Hope 2 430 338 78.60%
Green 1 774 603 77.91%
Green 2 665 490 73.68%
Laurel 922 707 76.68%
Hide Away Hills 433 331 76.44%
Marion 1 641 503 78.47%
Marion 2 547 426 77.88%
Laurelville 374 240 64.17%
Perry 1273 891 69.99%
Saltcreek 693 506 73.02%
Starr 1 542 382 70.48%
Starr 2 536 382 71.27%
Murray City 350 246 70.29%
Carbon Hill 563 419 74.42%
Washington 755 541 71.66%

Total 18209 13483 74.05%

[mgr]

38. Where were the registration drives targeted?

Would the registration drive affect local registration, or county wide, or the greater metropolitan area that may include Kentucky, and adjacent counties? What were the overall numbers registered according to the parties doing the registrations?

Mike

[Tigress DEM]

43. Electoral Dysfunction.

[wli]

22. busy purging and realigning the voter registrations I see

More fraud.

[BQueen]

26. Some local info on Allen and Auglaize

Allen picked up huge numbers of newly registered Dems for the May primary because of the closing of the local prison and Taft and Oxley's failure to do a damned thing about it. (Oxley's unknown Dem opponent actually won Allen Co against that powerhouse largely due to the prison thing.)

As for Auglaize, these numbers are very interesting in light of the fact that Bu$h allegedly gained percentage points over his performance there in 2000 --- Despite much more visible Dem support than I've ever seen in this area, and people in their mid-50's as first-time political volunteers for Kerry. But Auglaize supposedly went 75% for Bu$h.

Another place to look at would be Shelby. There, even the local Rep HQ dude said "it would be close" but W would win Shelby County (if you think Warren co is conservative, they're pinkos compared to Shelby) The signage there (even with backlash) was 50/50 -- yet another 75% or more W win....

Just a sidenote, I never got any confirmation of registration for the 2004 election, but last week go a "confirmation card" that warns I may be purged if I do not return the card and/or vote "before" the November election date....how confusing is THAT intended to be?

[FogerRox]

27. kicked

:kick:

[Chi]

29. Lucas county shows a net 393 loss, but investigation shows...

No less than 20,000 new registrations received.
That must of been a hell of a purge!

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/elections/lucas/LucasCountyInvestigationReport.pdf

On September 1, 2004, one entity, Project Vote, delivered 7,000 voter registration forms
to the Board office for processing. In addition, voter registration applications were being
received from several other entities as well, including our office.

---

October 4, 2004, was the filing deadline for new registrants wanting to vote in the 2004
general election. On that day, Project Vote delivered to the Lucas County Board of
Elections two boxes containing a total of approximately 10,000 voter registration forms.
One of these boxes contained approximately 7,000 forms while the other one contained
approximately 3,000 forms. Incidentally, in an interview with Ms. Hicks-Hudson
following the general election, she stated, “October 4 was when I realized that more
resources would be needed to complete the voter registration processing.” It took
approximately 20,000 unprocessed voter registration applications at a point less than a
month before the election for Ms. Hicks-Hudson to finally recognize that “more
resources would be needed.” Yet, other than sending an e-mail to the staff on October 8
informing them that, hence forward, they would be working 12 hours a day to eliminate
the voter registration backlog, Ms. Hicks-Hudson did nothing. She still did not sense or
appreciate the urgency of the matter.

---

Ms. Scott confused matters as well. On at least one occasion last fall, when Project Vote
employees delivered several thousand voter registration forms to the office, Ms. Scott
instructed Ms. Judy Werner, the office receptionist, not to date-stamp the individual
forms, but, rather, to simply date-stamp the boxes in which the forms arrived. Ms. Scott
did not realize that, by doing this, she was violating R.C. § 3503.19 (A). As a result, she
also ran the risk of frustrating the Board’s ability to ascertain whether the applicants’
forms were received in a timely manner to qualify them as electors eligible to vote in the
2004 general election.

---

Also, several Board employees mentioned that Ms. Hicks-Hudson, Ms. Kelly and Ms.
Scott instructed them to process agency forms and mail-in forms first and to leave the
counter forms for last, rather than processing the forms in the order in which they were
received. There was no benefit to be realized by processing agency forms and walk-in
forms first and saving the counter forms for last. Nor was there any indication as to why
management wanted agency forms and walk-in forms processed first and counter forms
processed last, beyond a comment allegedly made by Ms. Scott, in which she said, in
referring to several thousand voter registration applications delivered to the office by
Project Vote prior to the October 4, 2004, filing deadline, “We may not get to them.”

At least one mail tray containing between 4,500 and 7,000 (estimates vary) unprocessed
Project Vote applications was “discovered” by Ms. Scott on or about October 18, 2004.
After accepting the applications on October 4, 2004, Ms. Werner was instructed by Ms.
Scott to set them aside.

---

[mod mom]

30. the purges was helped by obtaining sensitive info from this burglary from

October 11, 2004:

Lucas County Democratic headquarters burglarized


The Lucas County Democratic Headquarters was burglarized overnight, and three computers, including the party’s main system, were stolen.
The computers contained highly sensitive information, including the party’s financial information, names and personal phone numbers of hundreds of party members, candidates, and volunteers.
The computers also stored e-mails from candidates that included discussion about campaign strategy.

A second computer, belonging to an attorney-volunteer working to ensure voters’ rights, also was taken, officials said. The headquarters on 1817 Madison Avenue does have an alarm system that volunteers believed they set late Monday when they left.
However, it apparently wasn’t tripped during the night. Workers arriving about 7:30 a.m. yesterday noticed the back window had been shattered and called police.

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041012/NEWS03/41012016

NOTE: THE ALARM SYSTEM WAS NOT TRIPPED. HMMH...DOES THIS BURGLARY HAVE A SIMILAR MO AS THE RECENT FRANKLIN COUNTY (COLUMBUS) ODP BREAK-IN WHERE THIEVES WENT IN THROUGH AN OPEN WINDOW AND STOLE SENSITIVE INFOR FROM OHIO DEM CHAIR DENNY WHITE'S OFFICE? No, we are told just punks.

the SOS office is getting great info for the purges!

[mgr]

36. I don't know that this required purging the rolls

What this was was to not allow 20,000 voters to participate, through what appears to be BoE incompetence. Of course, this may be a whitewash by the SOS. What is troubling is the minute increase of democrats and republicans over a period after the primaries, and to the election. If reasonable purging was done, these values should decline or be at zero; and the non-partisan (newly registered) would be positive for the entire volume of newly registered voters.

The only possible explanation I can muster is that these positive numbers represent active registered voters that moved, and for whatever reason, Ohio allows you to retain partisan registration if you move.

The question that should be foremost, is--did this only occur in Lucas County? or were other BoEs equally swamped that registrations were not processed?

I don't think that you need to burglarize the democratic HQ in order to purge the rolls. You do however, if you anticipate needing to target your voter suppression efforts.

Mike

[adolfo]

31. It is just a small piece of the puzzle..

There are 2 other types of voters to consider. Registered Republicans and Non-Partisan voters were left out of the equation. Non-Partisans make up the bulk of the registration because of how Ohio gathers signups.

[Chi]

33. I thought it was unique,

because it is an actual new registration count by a official Ohio investigation.
I thought everyone was having trouble finding official new registration numbers.
Being able to show someone both a plus 20,000 in new reg's, and the -10,000 to -15,000 reduction in voters makes a poignant case.
IMO
8)

[adolfo]

34. It is unique

As far as I know, these numbers have never been published before. How can you investigate the results without isolating each voter category?

[Chi]

44. I was missing where you were going with that.

Now I understand.
You were giving me the other numbers because I used the 393 number, which was only Dems....got it. 8)

BTW, when I said 'investigation', I was referring to the Lucas County Investigation the link was for, not anything I was doing.

But just to correct my numbers...
From May to Nov Lucas County voter roll went DOWN 10,429 voters
Even though AT MIN. 20,000 new voter registrations were received by deadline.

So that's a Min purge/rejection of 30,429 voters (or registrations), just for Lucas county.

Lucas County Population, 2003 estimate 454,216
Population, percent change, April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003 was -0.2%
That a change of minus 908 people (and how many are registered voters?).
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39/39095.html

Fekkers

[adolfo]

32. All Reports Together

Registered Democrats:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=385181&mesg_id=385181

Registered Republicans:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=385181&mesg_id=385186

Registered Non-Partisans:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=385181&mesg_id=385197

Totals

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=385181&mesg_id=385223

Source File:

http://www.recountflorida.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Downloads&file=index&req=getit&lid=8

[Chi]

39. More than half a million new Ohio voters have registered by deadline

Ohio- More than half a million new Ohio voters have registered by the voter registration
deadline this year. These new voters are not yet entered on the voter files. This is more than
double the registration increase seen in 2000. Please note that the fate of 5000 incomplete
applications is still being addressed. In Cuyahoga County, Project Vote is currently phone
banking these rejected voters to advise them to correct their applications prior to the October
29th deadline. Project Vote has also re-canvassed voters who submitted incomplete applications
in Youngstown.

http://projectvote.org/fileadmin/election_administration/State_by_State_Final_2004_Voter_Verification_Report_11-02-04.pdf
(page 4)

And this is just for Project Vote.
(I believe they have some Florida #'s too Adolfo)