as i remember it, the problem of electronic voting and wildly divergent polls vs actuals first appeared in the 2002 mid-term elections. with 2006 mid-terms closing in, i'm wondering where the "hot spots" will be.
i've heard many people say that we have to work extra-hard to elect our candidates by a spread that's so wide, it "can't be jiggered." so, how wide is wide enough? 10 points? 20 points? 30 or 40?
Here's the 2006 break-down of Senate races:
CURRENTLY: 55 Republicans 44 Democrats and 1 Independent
AT PLAY: are 33 Senate seats: 15 presently held by Republicans, 17 by Democrats, and 1 Independent. we need to hold what we have and pick up at least 6 seats. Where are they coming from?
Democrats' whose seats are up:
Daniel Akaka – HI
Jeff Bingaman--NM
Robert Byrd--WV
Maria Cantwell-WA
Thomas Carper—DE
Hillary Clinton—NY
Kent Conrad—ND
John Corzine—NJ
Mark Dayton—MN (Not Running)
Diane Feinstein—CA
Edward Kennedy – MA
Herb Kohl—WI
Joseph Lieberman—CN
Bill Nelson—FL
Ben Nelson—NE
Debbie Stabenow--MI
Paul Sarbanes—MD (Not Running)
Independent - 1 Seat (No Incumbents)
James Jeffords VT (Not Running)
Republicans -15 Seats (All 15 are Incumbents)
George Allen – VA
Conrad Burns – MT
Lincoln Chafee--RI
Mike Dewine –OH
John Ensign—NV
Bill Frist – TN
Orrin Hatch--UT
Kay Hutchison – TX
John Kyle—AZ
Trent Lott—MI
Richard Lugar – IN
Rick Santorum—PA
Olympia Snow – ME
James Talent – MO
Thomas Craig --WY
(take a ride in the wayback machine)
2002 Mid-Term Election Polls vs ActualsHow accurate were the pollsters in advance of the US mid-term elections? According to the polls - the Republican Party experienced a
pronounced last minute swing in its favour of between 4 and 16 points. Remarkably this last minute swing appears to have been concentrated in its effects in critical Senate races (Georgia and Minnesota) where it secured it's complete control of Congress.
Comparing the results of final week polling in 19 races, with the actual results in those same races:
- 14 races showed a post opinion poll swing towards the Republican Party (by between 3 and 16 points);
- 2 races showed a post opinion poll swing towards the Democratic Party (by 2 and 4 points);
- In three races the pollsters were close to correct;
- The largest post opinion poll vote swings occurred in Minnesota and Georgia where pollsters got the final result wrong:
- All the post polling swings in favour of the democratic party were within the margin of error.
- Several of the post polling swings in favour of the republican party were well outside the margin of error.
- In the states where the senate races were critical and close the swing was predominantly towards the Republicans, with the exceptions of Arkansas and Missouri. The level of post-poll swing in these races in favour of the Republican Party in each race were: North Carolina 3, Colorado 4, Georgia 9-12, Minnesota 8-11, Texas 3-11, New Hampshire 1.
- The state where the biggest upset occurred, Georgia, is also the state that ran its election with the most electronic voting machines.
there's more info here --
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0211/S00078.htmbut since the mid-terms are what we are up against in the near future, if anyone has links to more mid-term info, please share.
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