Polling analysis finds GOP in the lead (Moonie Times)

[Starfury]

And so it begins. This is from the Moonie Times, but in time it'll be covered in other papers, CNN, etc., assuming it hasn't already. News stories like this one plant the idea that Democratic candidates will not fare as well as would be normally expected. Maybe I'm overly paranoid, but it seemed like this was how it started in 2004, followed over time by polls statistically skewed in Republican favor to "balance" out the weak democrat voters. This way, the public won't be surprised by the results in November.

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll reported last week that the Democrats led Republicans among registered voters in the generic congressional survey by 50 percent to 43 percent, a seven-point margin that could give Democrats enough victories to take control of the House, if their supporters participate in November's elections.
But a deeper analysis of these numbers by David W. Moore for the Gallup Poll said, "It is likely many voters will not do so" because turnout among registered voters tends to be lower than that among "likely voters" who say they plan to vote and usually do.
In his analysis, Mr. Moore writes that Gallup's "experience over the past two midterm elections, in 1998 and 2002, suggests that the numbers tend to overstate the Democratic margin by about 10? percentage points."
"Given that Democrats currently lead by seven points, that could mean that among people who will definitely vote, Republicans actually lead by three to four points," he said.
Republican election strategists long have maintained the so-called generic numbers, in which voters are asked which party they will support in the elections, without mentioning a specific candidate, skew in favor of the Democrats.

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20060227-123359-5955r.htm

[roguevalley]

1. like murtha says, just because they say it doesn't make it

true. dems are more likely to vote, I truly believe, to rid the country of these dumb fucks.

[Starfury]

3. Exactly my point. Deja vu all over again..... nt

[f-bush]

5. Off the subject...is that your wiener dog?

I love him. I lived in a high rise in Frankfurt, Germany a came into a family that already had a daschound. That dog lived to be 19 years old. He died when I was 17. He was so cool. We now have another one. Big, huge, lazy and very smart!

As for the bullshit about the polls, anybody can a skew a poll to how they want it to read. Bear in mind that this paper has no credibility as far as being impartial. I personally feel that if it keeps going like this, the repukes are going to get their asses kicked in Novemeber.

The only problem with that is that shrub will start some sort of crap with Iran and get everybody rallying around him inorder to stave off the inevitiable impreachment proceedings coming his way!

[roguevalley]

8. yes, that's my Tippy. My Gretchen was 22 when she died and it

took Tippy and four others to help mend the hole. Weiner dogs rule!

[f-bush]

9. Cool...22 years old huh? Wow!

I love wiener dogs also. You know there are some awesome sites for daschound owners. Most wiener dog owners I know are liberals!

[roguevalley]

10. weiners have all the best features of love and devotion

and concern for those they love. they live forever if you care for them well. They definitely are libs. My boys are confirmed dems. ;)

[InsultComicDog]

2. Yeah

Due to gerrymandered districts the Pubs get more seats for their votes than they would in a proportional system.

[organik]

4. The numbers skew in favor of Democrats?

Funny, I thought it was election fraud stealing votes from Dems. Silly me.

If every vote in every election in the US were accurately counted, I bet we'd very rarely have a Repub. majority, if ever.

[Stevepol]

6. Amen, organik. We certainly wouldn't have * in as prez, and

we'd have Cleland from GA in definitely, and almost certainly Mondale from MN and Stickland from CO. Others as well that might have been close.

Until we get a transparent and fair vote counting procedure in the country, not much will change I'm afraid. We just don't have a democracy anymore.

[mod mom]

7. Start the excuses for why the machines will record GOP victories.