FYI - Mexico: Calderón Hasn't Won

[rumpel]

By Joshua Holland, AlterNet. Posted July 10, 2006.

Despite what you've been hearing in the mainstream media, nobody has won Mexico's presidential election yet.

snip

That narrative is wrong for one simple reason: nobody has won Mexico's presidential election. Regardless of what the New York Times or Mexico's Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) claim, the results aren't in. Under Mexican law, only the Federal Electoral Tribunal, know by its Spanish acronym TRIFE, can say who will serve as Mexico's next president.

snip

López Obrador and his supporters claim there were irregularities at 40,000 of the country's 130,000 polling places. Calderón got a razor-thin margin in last Wednesday's official tally of the actas -- the summary sheets prepared at each polling place (the actual ballots were only counted when there was a discrepancy with the actas) -- of less than 250,000 votes out of over 41 million votes cast. López Obrador has called for a complete ballot-by-ballot recount.

snip

Physicist Jorge López at the University of Texas El Paso conducted a statistical analysis of the PREP results and found that, as the results came in, the candidates' totals tracked almost perfectly with one another. One would expect that as results from each party's geographic strongholds were counted, their percentage of the total would rise and their opponent's would fall. He also noted that there was very little deviation between the actual results as they came in and the average results; in a normal, natural distribution, one would expect significant differences between the two (it should look something like a bell-shaped curve). Dr. López concluded the pattern was "a clear indication that the data was manufactured by an algorithm and does not stand a chance at passing as data originated at the actual voting."

snip

While stopping short of charging outright fraud in the race, Lewis said: "We're really quite disturbed. We didn't expect to see this level of irregularity."

http://www.alternet.org/story/38727/

[Warpy]

1. The Mexicans seem to know that

and the pictures posted on a thread a couple of days ago showed it very clearly, tens of thousands protesting in Mexico City (estimate 100,000, looked to me about half that again).

It seems ordinary folks are FURIOUS about this whole thing, no matter which side they're on, the obvious illegality of this election, the crime at all levels.

Pity we're not seeing it here.

[MrPrax]

3. You mean pictures like this?

Yup...lot more than a 100,000

Watching this rally made me think of a very important and revealing difference between those demonstrating in Mexico and those who have demonstrated against the government in Venezuela.

If one reads some of the election observation reports on Venezuelan elections there is one thing that jumps out. In spite of the fact that the observers find Venezuelan elections to be transparent, without irregularities, the electoral agency co-operative, and the voting process among the best and most accurate in the world they repeatedly emphasize that the voting process is not trusted by an important segment of Venezuelan society. And that is true, the Venezuelan opposition doesn’t trust the voting process – though whether it does so out of conviction or political expediency is open to debate. But the key point is the complaints and fears of the Venezuelan opposition are duly noted and taken account of by the international press and observers.

Contrast this with the situation in Mexico. There has been no audit to verify the accuracy of the vote and it looks like there may never be one. Hundreds of thousands of Mexicans have demonstrated against this and its safe to say probably millions of Mexicans don’t believe that the announced election results are necessarily an accurate reflection of how people voted. Yet the EU has already given the election its Good Housekeeping seal of approval without noting there many Mexicans don’t trust the results. The international press had widely reported that the Mexican electoral agency, the IFE, is accepted by all as professional, impartial, and transparent. Suffice it to say there is probably a big segment of Mexican society that wouldn’t agree with that. But somehow the concerns and doubts of those millions of people are ignored.


Oil Wars blog

More 'thousands gathered'! pix found here

[Ghost Dog]

4. No, EU has NOT already given the election its Good Housekeeping

seal of approval. The Head of the EU Observers Mission jumped the bell, issuing a preliminary report after the first provisional 'quick (computerised, for TV) count - the PREP' BEFORE that was corrected and BEFORE the definitive result has been arrived at by the Federal Tribunal. This is highly irregular. It is to be noted that the person in question is a right-wing Spanish PP (Popular, or Peoples' Party) (at the EU parliament) appointee (Aznar's party). See here for some info: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x221236#221265

The European Union itself, through any representative body be it Council, Commission or Parliament (or "High Representative - Javier Solana) has yet, as far as I have seen, to make the slightest official comment.

[ladjf]

5. If that a photo hasn't been photoshoped, that crowd is more like

300,000 than 100,000. And that just what is visible in the square.

[MADem]

2. Not a bullfight, but looks like someone's been GORED NT