By Joshua Holland, AlterNet. Posted July 10, 2006.
Despite what you've been hearing in the mainstream media, nobody has won Mexico's presidential election yet.
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That narrative is wrong for one simple reason: nobody has won Mexico's presidential election. Regardless of what the New York Times or Mexico's Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) claim, the results aren't in. Under Mexican law, only the Federal Electoral Tribunal, know by its Spanish acronym TRIFE, can say who will serve as Mexico's next president.
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López Obrador and his supporters claim there were irregularities at 40,000 of the country's 130,000 polling places. Calderón got a razor-thin margin in last Wednesday's official tally of the actas -- the summary sheets prepared at each polling place (the actual ballots were only counted when there was a discrepancy with the actas) -- of less than 250,000 votes out of over 41 million votes cast. López Obrador has called for a complete ballot-by-ballot recount.
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Physicist Jorge López at the University of Texas El Paso conducted a statistical analysis of the PREP results and found that, as the results came in, the candidates' totals tracked almost perfectly with one another. One would expect that as results from each party's geographic strongholds were counted, their percentage of the total would rise and their opponent's would fall. He also noted that there was very little deviation between the actual results as they came in and the average results; in a normal, natural distribution, one would expect significant differences between the two (it should look something like a bell-shaped curve). Dr. López concluded the pattern was "a clear indication that the data was manufactured by an algorithm and does not stand a chance at passing as data originated at the actual voting."
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While stopping short of charging outright fraud in the race, Lewis said: "We're really quite disturbed. We didn't expect to see this level of irregularity."
http://www.alternet.org/story/38727/