Channeling TIA: Here's why the GOP can steal the election(Xpost)

[kster]

Posted by Melissa G
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=453066&mesg_id=453066

OMMM...I've been doing yoga all weekend and in the midst of all this meditating I received a message from the dearly beloved TIA. I present it as it came to me... I can't respond much about it as I have not had time to really look at it myself and I have some homework pending. I am merely acting as a good medium and channeling the message.

PS. I'm actually not kidding about the yoga..I'm putting in 11 hour days in a training seminar so if the other Good Friends of TIA can keep this thread K&R'd I would deeply appreciate it.
Thanks!
Melissa


Here is how the GOP can "win" the House

These are the current media projections, based on the latest polls:
Senate: 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 1 tie
House: 226 Democrats, 205 Republicans, 4 Ties

Looks good, right? Well, yes, but...
The projections fail to account for:
1) The HISTORICAL RECORD of uncounted spoiled/lost votes (mostly Democratic)
2) GOP voting machines PROVEN TO BE EASILY HACKABLE BY EXPERTS:
Johns Hopkins, Princeton, Hursti, etc.

There are currently 31 GOP House seats in play. If the election were held today,
the probability that the GOP would win at least 1 of the 9 in which the
Democratic lead EXCEEDS the 3% polling MoE is 20%; the probability they would
win at least 2 is just 2%. Let's assume that the GOP won't win or steal ANY of
these seats; it would be too obvious if they tried. Therefore, the best
projection estimate is: Dems will win all 9 seats in which they are leading
beyond the margin of error.

But the Dems need to win 15 GOP seats to gain control of the House, assuming
they keep ALL of their current seats. What's to stop the GOP from stealing 5 of
the 10 seats in which the Democratic lead is within the MoE (7 seats) or in
which they are tied (3 seats)? That's all the GOP would need to win a one-seat
House majority.

The polls don't factor in the spoiled and lost votes (mostly democratic) which
occur in EVERY election. This suggests that the net Democratic lead may be 1%
LOWER than the polls suggest. On the other hand, the undecided vote (currently
5%) usually splits in favor of the challenger - in this case, the Democrat. So
we may have a wash here.

I hope I'm wrong and that fraud will not be a factor in this election. I want to
see the Dems win big. But we all know what happened in the last three elections,
don't we? The motivation to steal it is just as powerful, if not more so, then
it was in 2000,2002,2004. BushCo will do ANYTHING NECESSARY TO STAY IN POWER.

The data source for the "House Forecast Update" is www.mydd.com .

FRAUD is not mentioned once in the OP or the 50+ comments. It's as if there is
ZERO probability of vote-switching or spoiled, uncounted Democratic votes.

Image


DemWin
DEM REP Prob >MoE?

Dems win ALL races where their lead exceeds the MoE:

1 NY-26: Davis (D) Reynolds (R) 56 40 100% y
2 OH-15: Kilroy (D) Pryce (R) 53 41 100% y
3 NY-24: Arcuri (D) Mieir (R) 53 42 100% y
4 OH-18: Space (D) Padgett (R 51 42 100% y
5 PA-07: Sestak (D) Weldon (R) 52 44 100% y
6 NM-01: Madrid (R) Wilson (R) 52 44 100% y
7 NC-11: Shuler (D) Taylor (R) 51 43 100% y
8 NC-08: Kissel (D) Hayes (R) 51 44 100% y
9 PA-06: Murphy (D) Gerlach (R) 52 46 100% y
_______

GOP steals 5+ races where the Dem lead is within the MoE:

10 MN-06: Wetterling (D) Bachmann (R) 50 45 100%
11 IN-02: Donnelly (D) Chocola (R) 50 46 100%
12 AZ-01: Simon (D) Renzi (R) 50 46 100%
13 OH-02: Wulsin (D) Schmidt (R) 48 45 98%
14 FL-13: Jennings (D) Buchannan (R) 47 44 98%
15 WI-08: Kagen (D) Gard (R) 48 46 90%
16 IA-02: Loebsack (D) Leach (R) 48 47 74%
17 KY-03: Yarmuth (D) Northup (R) 48 48 50%
18 IL-06: Duckworth (D) Roskam (R) 47 47 50%
19 CO-07: Perlmutter (D) O'Donell (R) 47 47 50%

_______

GOP wins ALL races in which they are leading:

20 MN-01: Gutknecht (R) Walz (D) 47 48 26%
21 VA-02: Drake (R) Kellam (D) 46 48 10%
22 NJ-07: Ferguson (R) Stender (D) 46 48 10%
23 NY-03: King (R) Mejas (D) 46 48 10%
24 WA-08: Reichert (R) Burner (D) 45 48 2%
25 KY-04: Davis (R) Lucas (D) 46 49 2%
26 VA-10: Wolf (R) Feder (D) 42 47 0%
27 ID-01: Sali (R) Grant (D) 43 49 0%
28 CT-05: Johnson (R) Murphy (D) 46 52 0%
29 CA-04: Doolittle (R) Brown (D) 44 52 0%
30 IL-14: Hastert (R) Leasch (D) 42 52 0%
31 IL-19: Shimkus (R) Stover (D) 36 53 0%

[bananas]

1. bad link - should be...

ommm.....
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=453066&mesg_id=453066

[kster]

3. Thank you, FIXED....nt

[babylonsister]

2. K&R, and I'm glad You're relaxed, Melissa.

:eyes: :hi:

[The Magistrate]

4. So Your Advice, Sir, Is That People Give Up And Not Bother To Vote?

It is hard to see any other meaning to such comments.

[kster]

5. Are you in the right thread?........nt

[The Magistrate]

7. Is There, Sir, A Wrong Thread To Be In?

What do you consider the likely effect of predictions that defeat through swindle as a foregone conclusion is on your audience?

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[kster]

12. I don't know is there Sir ?

[kster]

11. You SIR, repeat this line alot

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2884334#2884552

[OnTheOtherHand]

16. imagine that -- a DU poster saying something twice

You might have answered the question. If there is a message in the OP, other than that the Republicans are certain to win, what is it?

At least this time TIA made clear that he hopes he is wrong.

[galloglas]

23. Excuse me??

That is not what I see at all.

In fact, I think the author of the thread may be the illustrious TIA. And, TIA, certainly would not counsel not voting.

I think, with the superior viewpoint and number-crunching ability of TIA, that the message might be to Watch out! That the time for jubilation is not at hand, and that to presume the Democrats have it in the bag is premature.

I read it as such.

A cautionary note from TIA, via the original poster, to "look behind the curtain" where Toto is now tugging.

Simply because the folks who brought you MisElection 2000 and MisElection 2004 are still close at hand. And, contrary to what some might think, those folks have MisElection 2006 very much on their plates. And, they also plan to eat our luches, also.

But, we shall see how that plays out.

It would be much in error to read this post tooooooo simplistically. Otherwise, you might be gobsmacked come election day.

The real question from TIA, via this poster, is what are you going to do the next time that the MSM tells you, "Well, the Democrats have been outRoved, again?"

Since that wasn't obvious to you, since you mistook the posters meaning, I would ask, as TIA might, "what are your plans??"

You know, if the talking heads come on TV, and with staight faces, say "What a coup (pun optional)! A real GOTV measure by the GOP to swing so many races by over 20 points!"

So, I ask, how big must a lie be to you before you man the barricades??

Mexico, and the Ukraine, are the modern historical imperatives.

So what say you?

[Awsi Dooger]

6. There are more than 31 GOP seats in play

I see several missing at first glance, namely NV-2 and NV-3.

But I'd also caution those polls are somewhat questionable. A new firm called Constituent Dynamics is responsible for the bulk of them. Apparently they robo call with short surveys and high numbers in the sample, about 1000. Their poll numbers are generally more favorable to Democrats than other House polls are indicating. For example, the PA-6 and PA-7 numbers show a large Democratic lead in the Constituent Dynamics polling, but other numbers have the races closer, if not the Republican leading.

There may also be some impact from the timing of the polls, post Foley. I don't claim to be an authority on House races but I think the polling in about two weeks will be more reliable.

http://www.pollster.com/house.php

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[kster]

13. Can anyone spare three vote, PLEASE......

[kster]

14. Your not afraid of Mr, Sir are you

vote it up, Please.

[kster]

15. if you voted this thread up PLEASE put an X

were you would have posted, or e-mail me, don't be afraid I just want to make sure the recommends add up.

Watch this video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6waWS0Y3Ubc

[kster]

17. Kick...nt

[chimpymustgo]

18. They CHEAT at EVERYTHING. And they will cheat at this.

To deny it, is PERVERSE. Yes, we must turn out, and vote in numbers that God-willing, they cannot overrule with Diebold. But we know this gang will not go gently into this goodnight...

[kster]

20. Absolutely, The Republican areas, are the ones to watch

it seems thats where the Neocons are going to be doing the most vote flipping, or reversing, because the regular Republican's are going to vote against this group in the White House, we all know that.

While looking for stolen Dem votes, we also need to direct some attention to the Rerpublican voters, votes that ARE GOING to be reversed.

[galloglas]

24. I am happy to see your post

You, indeed, understood the poster's intent.

It is not vote suppression, like the recently passed HR 4844 attempts, but a post intended to make us vigilant!

Vote, and watch vigilantly.

For these hounds that now patrol the halls of Congress, and infest the Administration, will NOT go gentlely.

Be hopeful and vigilant.

And be mindful that they just might, in the end, force vigilance into vigilantism. If so, it is they who have chosen that path for us.

[bleever]

19. Know your enemy, if you want to win.

That's what this thread is about.

Not defeatism. Preparation, vigilance, and response.

K&R.

[kster]

21. Thank you so much for that Bleever..............nt

[cosmicdot]

22. k&r

cross-posted you here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2885243&mesg_id=2885442