Well, I'm Still in intense yoga meditation thru next Sunday (though it is a bit lighter time-wise mid-week)
Anyway, an Elaboration from the the Previous TIA Channeling that I did has come through...
As always, I hope those Fans of TIA will keep this K&R'd for greater viewing pleasure!
IF NO FRAUD, Dems will win a 238-200 House majority- a 99% probability!
A Monte Carlo Forecast Simulation
How many of the 58-contested GOP House seats can the Democrats expect to win, assuming a FRAUD-FREE election? Corollary: How many elections will the GOP need to steal to maintain control?
This is an update to a prior analysis of 31 competitive GOP-held seats. The data base is bigger; it includes the latest polls for 58 seats. The Democrats need to capture 15 of them to gain control of the House. The analysis ASSUMES ZERO FRAUD. It is based strictly on the latest poll shares, undecided voter allocation assumption and the margin of error. The analysis will be run again in the coming weeks in order to update the model with new polling data.
The goal of the simulation is to calculate a range of probabilities of the Democrats winning a specified number of the 58 elections, over a range of undecided voter allocation assumptions. The simulation produces a VERY ROBUST ESTIMATE of the number of elections that would need to be stolen in order for the GOP to retain control of the House.
SIMULATION OBJECTIVE:
Calculate a 25-scenario probability matrix based on
a) 5 scenarios of undecided voters allocated to the Democrats and
b) 5 scenarios of the number of captured GOP seats
In a published study of over 150 elections, the challenger won the undecided vote 82% of the time. Even with the VERY CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTION that the Democrats will win just 50% of the undecided, it's a virtual 100% probability that they will WIN AT LEAST 25 SEATS, TEN more than they need for a House MAJORITY, assuming NO FRAUD.
In the MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, in which it is assumed that the Democrats will win 60% of the undecided vote, they can expect to capture 32 of the 58 GOP-held seats. There is a 99% probability that they will win 30 or more. Therefore, in order to retain the House, the GOP will HAVE TO STEAL A MINIMUM of 15 elections.
This is a polling bar chart with the win probabilities:
Sensitivity Analysis
--------------------
UVA: Undecided voter % allocated to Democrats
UVA 50 55 60 67 75
Dems win ----------Probability%--------
25 seats 100 100 100 100 100
30 seats 35 85 99 100 100
35 seats 0 3 30 90 100
40 seats 0 0 0 5 70
45 seats 0 0 0 0 1
Polling Detail
--------------
Adjusted: Dem & GOP polls
(60% undecided to Democrat)
Prob: probability of Democratic win
Num District Pollster Poll MoE Poll Dem GOP Adjusted Prob
Code Average Sample 3.80 Date 45.4 45.9 50.6 49.4 57.8%
1 AZ 1 RT Strategies 983 LV 3.09 10/10 50 46 52.4 47.6 99.9%
2 AZ 5 SurveyUSA 509 LV 4.40 10/15 45 48 49.2 50.8 23.8%
3 AZ 8 Zogby 500 LV 4.50 10/2 45 37 55.8 44.2 100.0%
4 CA 4 RT Strategies 997 LV 3.09 10/10 44 52 46.4 53.6 0.0%
5 CA 11 Greenberg 413 LV 4.90 9/26 48 46 51.6 48.4 90.0%
6 CA 50 SurveyUSA 540 LV 4.30 9/12 40 54 43.6 56.4 0.0%
7 CO 4 Mason-Dixon 400 LV 5.00 10/7 36 46 46.8 53.2 0.6%
8 CO 5 Mason-Dixon 400 LV 5.00 10/7 37 37 52.6 47.4 97.9%
9 CO 7 RT Strategies 991 LV 3.09 10/10 47 47 50.6 49.4 77.7%
10 CT 2 Zogby 500 LV 4.50 10/2 41 44 50.0 50.0 50.0%
11 CT 4 Zogby 500 LV 4.50 10/2 46 41 53.8 46.2 100.0%
12 CT 5 RT Strategies 996 LV 3.09 10/10 46 52 47.2 52.8 0.0%
13 FL 13 RT Strategies 1024 LV 3.07 10/10 47 44 52.4 47.6 99.9%
14 FL 16 RT Strategies 1001 LV 3.09 10/1 50 43 54.2 45.8 100.0%
15 FL 22 RT Strategies 1022 LV 3.10 8/29 44 52 46.4 53.6 0.0%
16 ID 1 RT Strategies 998 LV 3.09 10/10 43 49 47.8 52.2 0.3%
17 IL 6 RT Strategies 997 LV 3.07 10/10 47 47 50.6 49.4 77.8%
18 IL 10 Mellman Group 400 LV 4.90 10/11 32 49 43.4 56.6 0.0%
19 IL 14 RT Strategies 1003 LV 3.08 10/10 42 52 45.6 54.4 0.0%
20 IL 19 RT Strategies 1023 LV 3.08 10/10 36 53 42.6 57.4 0.0%
21 IN 2 RT Strategies 989 LV 3.07 10/10 50 46 52.4 47.6 99.9%
22 IN 8 Indiana State 626 LV 3.90 10/12 55 32 62.5 37.5 100.0%
23 IN 9 SurveyUSA 512 LV 4.40 10/15 48 46 51.6 48.4 92.3%
24 IA 1 Bennett, Petts 400 RV 4.90 10/8 48 37 57.0 43.0 100.0%
25 IA 2 RT Strategies 1006 LV 3.09 10/10 48 47 51.0 49.0 89.8%
26 KY 3 RT Strategies 996 LV 3.09 10/10 48 48 50.4 49.6 69.4%
27 KY 4 RT Strategies 1000 LV 3.09 10/10 46 49 49.0 51.0 10.2%
28 MN 1 RT Strategies 1024 LV 3.08 10/10 47 48 50.0 50.0 50.0%
29 MN 2 SurveyUSA 519 LV 4.40 10/15 42 50 46.8 53.2 0.2%
30 MN 6 RT Strategies 995 LV 3.09 10/10 50 45 53.0 47.0 100.0%
31 NV 3 Mason-Dixon 400 RV 5.00 9/21 37 47 46.6 53.4 0.4%
32 NH 1 Research 2000 300 LV 6.00 9/14 31 56 38.8 61.2 0.0%
33 NH 2 Univ of NH 220 LV 6.20 9/24 36 46 46.8 53.2 2.2%
34 NJ 7 RT Strategies 1022 LV 3.10 10/10 46 48 49.6 50.4 30.6%
35 NM 1 RT Strategies 986 LV 3.09 10/10 52 44 54.4 45.6 100.0%
36 NY 3 RT Strategies 984 LV 3.09 10/10 46 48 49.6 50.4 30.6%
37 NY 19 Abacus Assoc 600 RV 4.00 9/15 44 49 48.2 51.8 3.9%
38 NY 20 Grove Insight 400 RV 4.90 10/13 41 42 51.2 48.8 83.1%
39 NY 24 RT Strategies 1029 LV 3.07 10/10 53 42 56.0 44.0 100.0%
40 NY 26 RT Strategies 1056 LV 3.07 10/10 56 40 58.4 41.6 100.0%
41 NY 29 Cooper&Secrest 503 LV 4.40 9/21 39 43 49.8 50.2 42.9%
42 NC 8 RT Strategies 1029 LV 3.08 10/10 51 44 54.0 46.0 100.0%
43 NC 11 RT Strategies 979 LV 3.09 10/10 51 43 54.6 45.4 100.0%
44 OH 1 Anzalone-Liszt 500 LV 4.40 8/01 45 45 51.0 49.0 81.4%
45 OH 2 RT Strategies 1003 LV 3.09 10/10 48 45 52.2 47.8 99.7%
46 OH 6 RT Strategies 982 LV 3.10 8/29 56 40 58.4 41.6 100.0%
47 OH 15 RT Strategies 1015 LV 3.09 10/10 53 41 56.6 43.4 100.0%
48 OH 18 Greenberg 400 RV 5.00 10/11 48 41 54.6 45.4 100.0%
49 OK 5 SurveyUSA 435 LV 4.70 10/10 33 62 36.0 64.0 0.0%
50 PA 6 RT Strategies 1023 LV 3.07 10/10 52 46 53.2 46.8 100.0%
51 PA 7 RT Strategies 1017 LV 3.08 10/10 52 44 54.4 45.6 100.0%
52 PA 8 Grove Insight 400 RV 4.90 10/15 44 40 53.6 46.4 99.8%
53 PA 10 Bennett,Petts 400 RV 4.90 10/9 51 37 58.2 41.8 100.0%
54 VA 2 RT Strategies 982 LV 3.10 10/10 46 48 49.6 50.4 30.6%
55 VA 5 SurveyUSA 502 LV 4.40 10/10 40 56 42.4 57.6 0.0%
56 VA 10 RT Strategies 1004 LV 3.07 10/10 42 47 48.6 51.4 3.7%
57 WA 8 RT Strategies 1015 LV 3.09 10/10 45 48 49.2 50.8 15.5%
58 WI 8 RT Strategies 983 LV 3.09 10/10 48 46 51.6 48.4 97.9%