Election Reform, Fraud, & Related News Wed 10/25/06 Freedom To Do Something!

[kpete]

Election Reform, Fraud, & Related News Wed 10/25/06 Freedom To Do Something!


The core idea of freedom is the ability to do something despite the intentions of the powers that be or of other numbers of people.

That's what it means to have a RIGHT, it means that we can do something over and above the opposition of others and that a court will back us up in so doing.

Paul Lehto

Elections Cover-up
A Two-Page Summary of Revealing Media Reports With Links

The concise excerpts from media articles below reveal major problems with the elections process. This is not a partisan matter. Fair elections are crucial to all who support democracy. Few have compiled this information in a way that truly educates the public on the great risk of using electronic voting machines. Spread the word and be sure to vote.

CNN News, 9/20/06, Voting Machines Put U.S. Democracy at Risk
http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/09/19/Dobbs.Sept20
Electronic voting machines...time and again have been demonstrated to be extremely vulnerable to tampering and error. During the 2004 presidential election, one voting machine...added nearly 3,900 additional votes. Officials caught the machine's error because only 638 voters cast presidential ballots. In a heavily populated district, can we really be sure the votes will be counted correctly? A 2005 Government Accountability Office report on electronic voting confirmed the worst fears: "There is evidence that some of these concerns have been realized and have caused problems with recent elections, resulting in the loss and miscount of votes."

New York Times, 9/5/06, In Search of Accurate Vote Totals
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/05/opinion/05tue1.html?
A recent government report details enormous flaws in the election system in Ohio's biggest county, problems that may not be fixable before the 2008 election. Cuyahoga County...recently adopted Diebold electronic voting machines that produce a voter-verified paper record. Investigators compared the vote totals recorded on the machines after this year's primary with the paper records produced. The numbers should have been the same, but often there were large and unexplained discrepancies. The report also found that nearly 10 percent of the paper records were destroyed, blank, illegible, or otherwise compromised.

MSNBC/Associated Press, 9/13/06, Princeton Prof Hacks E-vote Machine
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14825465/
A Princeton University computer science professor added new fuel...to claims that electronic voting machines...are vulnerable to hacking. In a paper posted on the university's Web site, Edward Felten and two graduate students described how they had tested a Diebold AccuVote-TS machine they obtained, found ways to quickly upload malicious programs and even developed a computer virus able to spread such programs between machines. They designed software capable of modifying all records, audit logs and counters kept by the voting machine, ensuring that a careful forensic examination would find nothing wrong.

USA Today/Associated Press, 7/13/06, Electronic Voting Machines Under Legal Attack
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-07-13-evoting_x.htm
Lawsuits have been filed in at least nine states, alleging that the machines are wide open to computer hackers. New York University's Brennan Center for Justice released a one-year study...that determined that the three most popular types of U.S. voting machines "pose a real danger" to election integrity. More than 120 security threats were identified, including wireless machines that could be hacked "by virtually any member of the public with some (computer) knowledge." Lowell Finley: "We had dozens of affidavits from voters in New Mexico who said they touched one candidate's name, but the machine picked the opponent."

Washington Post, 6/28/06, A Single Person Could Swing an Election
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/27/AR2006062701451
A team of cybersecurity experts that it would take only one person, with a sophisticated technical knowledge and timely access to the software that runs the voting machines, to change the outcome.

New York Times, 5/30/06, Block the Vote
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/30/opinion/30tue1.html?
States are adopting rules that make it hard, and financially perilous, for nonpartisan groups to register new voters. New rules for maintaining voter rolls...are likely to throw off many eligible voters. Florida recently reached a new low when it actually bullied the League of Women Voters into stopping its voter registration efforts. Colorado recently imposed criminal penalties on volunteers who slip up in registration drives.

Newsweek, 5/29/06, Will Your Vote Count in 2006?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12888600/site/newsweek
A report by Finnish security expert Harri Hursti analyzed Diebold voting machines found unheralded vulnerabilities. Experts are calling them the most serious voting-machine flaws ever. It requires only a few minutes of pre-election access to a Diebold machine to open the machine and insert a PC card that...could reprogram the machine to give control to the violator. It's even possible...to trick authorized technicians into thinking that everything is working fine, an illusion you couldn't pull off with pre-electronic systems.

Wall Street Journal, 5/12/06, Reversing Course on Electronic Voting
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB114739688261250925-q5rh2ocioxu6mgjmS6bZPCZL0HY
Some advocates of a 2002 law mandating upgrades of the nation's voting machinery now worry the overhaul is making things worse. Proponents of the Help America Vote Act are filing lawsuits to block some state and election officials' efforts to comply with the act. In Indiana, an ES&S employee alerted local-election officials that another ES&S worker had installed unauthorized software on the machines before the election. That and other disputes led to a multimillion-dollar settlement.

New York Times, 5/12/06, New Fears of Security Risks in Electronic Voting Systems
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/12/us/12vote.html?ex=1305086400
Officials in Pennsylvania and California issued urgent directives...about a potential security risk in their Diebold Election Systems touch-screen voting machines. "It's the most severe security flaw ever discovered in a voting system," said Michael I. Shamos, a professor of computer science at Carnegie Mellon. Diebold issued a warning...saying that it had found a "theoretical security vulnerability." A professor of computer science at Johns Hopkins University...after studying the latest problem "I almost had a heart attack."

Washington Post, 3/26/06, Election Whistle-Blower Stymied by Vendors
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/25/AR2006032500805
Ion Sancho is...elections supervisor in Leon County, Fla. Last year, helped show that electronic voting machines...would allow election workers to alter vote counts without detection. Sancho may be paying an unexpected price for his whistle-blowing: None of the state-approved companies here will sell him the voting machines the county needs.The trouble began last year when Sancho allowed a Finnish computer scientist to test Leon County's Diebold voting machines. Diebold will not sell to Sancho without assurances that he will not permit more such tests, which the company considers a reckless use of the machines.

New York Times, 9/12/04, On the Voting Machine Makers' Tab
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/12/opinion/12sun2.html?
Some of electronic voting's loudest defenders have been state and local election officials. Many of those same officials have financial ties to voting machine companies. Officials from Georgia, California and Texas argued that voter-verifiable paper trails...are impractical. Former secretaries of state from Florida and Georgia have signed on as lobbyists for Election Systems and Software and Diebold Election Systems. When Bill Jones left office as California's secretary of state in 2003, he quickly became a consultant to Sequoia Voting Systems. His assistant secretary of state took a full-time job there. The list goes on.

MSNBC/AP, 8/23/04, Secretive Testing Firms Certify Nation's Vote Count Machines
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5762054/from/RL.4
The three companies that certify the nation's voting technologies operate in secrecy, and refuse to discuss flaws in the machines. Federal regulators have virtually no oversight over testing of the technology.

New York Times, 1/31/04, How to Hack an Election
http://www.wanttoknow.info/040131nytimes
Maryland hired a computer security firm to test its new machines. Paid hackers had little trouble casting multiple votes and taking over the machines' vote-recording mechanisms. Diebold...rushed to issue a self-congratulatory press release with the headline "Maryland Security Study Validates Diebold Election Systems Equipment." The study's authors were shocked to see their findings spun so positively.


http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/linkframe.php?opedpg=http://www.wanttoknow.info/electionscoverups&opedid=24827






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[kpete]

1. Voting Problems Suggest Elections Cover-up

Voting Problems Suggest Elections Cover-up
Who Counts Your Vote?

Dear friends,

Below are a number of crucial, little-known elections facts for all who value democracy. Take the time to click on the links provided and read some of the revealing articles, many of which are from major media sources. Why are these facts getting so little media coverage? Please help to play the role at which the media is so sadly failing by spreading this news to your friends and colleagues. Though one party may benefit more than others, this is not a partisan issue. We invite all who care about democracy to join in working towards clean, free elections which truly reflect the will of the people.Together, we can and will build a brighter future.

With best wishes,
Fred Burks for the WantToKnow.info Team
Former language interpreter for Presidents Bush and Clinton


30% of all 2004 U.S. votes were cast on touch screen voting machines. Most of them, including all of Florida's, lack paper records that could be used to verify the electronic results in a recount. Over 20 percent of the machines tested by observers around the country failed to record votes properly.

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/techpolicy/2004-11-03-evote-trouble_x.htm - USA Today
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/07/28/sunday/main632436.shtml - CBS News


Federal regulators have virtually no oversight over testing of the touchscreen technology. The three companies that certify the nation's voting technologies operate in secrecy, and refuse to discuss flaws in the voting machines.

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/techpolicy/evoting/2004-08-23-low-evote-scrutiny_x.htm - USA Today
http://www.commondreams.org/views02/0916-04.htm
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/042804Landes/042804landes.html


Diebold Election Systems is the world's largest voting-machine company, with over 50 % of the world market. Diebold's headquarters are located in Ohio, the state which decided the 2004 presidential election.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/07/28/sunday/main632436.shtml - CBS News
http://www.diebold.com/news/newsdisp.asp?id=2837 - Diebold website
http://www.diebold.com/aboutus/ataglance/default.htm - Diebold website with headquarters address


Diebold bought Global Elections Systems (GES) in 2002. At least five convicted felons had previously secured management positions at GES. Now a wholly owned subsidiary of Diebold, GES produces the operating system used on touch-screen voting terminals.

http://www.truthout.org/docs_03/121803C.shtml - Associated Press article
http://www.pbs.org/weta/washingtonweek/voices/200401/0119voting.html - PBS Website
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/election/2001855390_felons11m0.html - Seattle Times
http://www.seattleweekly.com/features/0406/040211_news_election.php


Elections Systems & Software, Inc. (ES&S) counted approximately 56 percent of the U.S. national vote in each of the last four presidential and congressional elections, amounting to more than 100 million ballots cast in each election.

http://www.essvote.com/HTML/about/about.html - ES&S website
http://www.state.nd.us/hava/news/pdf/2004/01092004.pdf - State of North Dakota website
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/042804Landes/042804landes.html




80% of all U.S. votes (not just electronic) are counted by these two companies: Diebold and ES&S.

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0225-05.htm
http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/private_company.html

http://baltimorechronicle.com/120904Burns.shtml

http://www.projectcensored.org/publications/2005/6.html


The president of Diebold and a vice president of ES&S are brothers.

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/computersecurity/2004-02-01-md-vote-trouble_x.htm - USA Today: Bob Urosevich as president of Diebold Elections Systems

http://www.WantToKnow.info/001119usatoday - USA Today: Todd Urosevich as VP of ES&S
http://www.diebold.com/news/newsdisp.asp?id=3036 - Diebold website, Bob Urosevich president
http://www.WantToKnow.info/essurosevich - shows how to access original webpage on ES&S website, now removed, which lists Todd Urosevich as VP of Customer Support and Company Spokesperson


These two brothers founded American Information Systems (AIS), which later became ES&S


http://www.yesmagazine.org/article.asp?ID=683

http://www.sciencedaily.com/encyclopedia/diebold
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0225-05.htm

http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/042804Landes/042804landes.html




Senator Chuck Hagel was chairman of ES&S precursor AIS. He became Senator in an upset victory based on votes counted by ES&S machines.



http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,124914,00.html - Fox News

http://www.npr.org/programs/npc/2003/030619.chagel.html - NPR




Senator Hagel was on a short list of George W. Bush's vice-presidential candidates in 2000.

http://www.businessweek.com/2000/00_28/b3689130.htm - Business Week
http://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/07/25/bush.vp/ - CNN News

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/e2376.htm - USA Today




The chairman and CEO of Diebold is a major Bush campaign organizer and donor who wrote in 2003 that he was "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year."

New York Times, 11/9/03 – New York Times

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/07/28/sunday/main632436.shtml - CBS News
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/primaries/sr_technology_debate.html - PBS



California's Secretary of State Kevin Shelley called for a criminal investigation of Diebold, saying the company had lied to state officials. "There was a wholesale breakdown in the election last March. Untold thousands of individuals were turned away and denied their right to vote because the voting equipment couldn't start." So many of the machines malfunctioned or ran unapproved software that Shelley took the extraordinary step of decertifying them.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/07/28/sunday/main632436.shtml - CBS News
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4874190 - MSNBC News
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2004-05-01-e-voting_x.htm - USA Today


For an abundance of other reliable, verifiable elections information, see our Elections Infomration Center:
http://www.WantToKnow.info/electionsinformation



The WantToKnow.info team is a group of dedicated researchers from around the world. We compile and summarize important, verifiable facts and information being hidden from the public. We are deeply committed to building a brighter future for us, for our children, and for our world.

http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/linkframe.php?opedpg=http://www.wanttoknow.info/votingproblems&opedid=24828



See our archive of revealing news articles at http://www.WantToKnow.info/medianewsarticles

[kpete]

2. Canada: Disturbing Diagnosis Of Problems

Canada: Evaluation Report of New Methods of Voting
By Le directeur Général des Élections du Québec
October 25, 2006

The Chief Electoral Officer Makes a Disturbing Diagnosis of the Problems that Occurred during the Municipal Elections of November 6, 2005


The Chief Electoral Officer of Québec, Me Marcel Blanchet, tabled in the National Assembly an evaluation report that makes a troubling diagnosis of the problems that occurred during the municipal elections of November 6, 2005, in some of the 162 Québec municipalities that used new methods of voting. One hundred and forty (140) municipalities used electronic voting while 22 “tested” the postal ballot.


“The major problems that were encountered during polling and the release of results have eroded the confidence of many persons regarding the new methods of voting” recalled Me Blanchet. “It was in order to shed light on these events and determine what happened that I created an internal evaluation committee which conducted a review that is unprecedented in Québec.”

more at:
http://www.votetrustusa.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1926&Itemid=26

[redqueen]

3. This would also make a great e-mail. n/t

[kpete]

4. Minnesota: Keeping an eye on the machines that count Minnesotans' votes

Posted on Tue, Oct. 24, 2006email thisprint this
Keeping an eye on the machines that count Minnesotans' votes

When Minnesotans are asked to raise their hands if they think our electronic voting machines accurately count their votes, almost all hands go up. However, when asked if they think votes in other states are counted accurately, only a few hands go up. Voters in our state have confidence in our voting machines.

But relying on a voting machine to electronically count ballots without a meaningful audit is like making bank deposits without receiving monthly statements to verify the balance. Thanks to a new, groundbreaking state law requiring a post-election review, we will have a way to help verify the accuracy of our voting machines. This review is possible because all Minnesotans will cast their ballots on paper that are counted by optical scanners.

Some think we don't need this review law because our voting machines are accurate; however, no one can definitively say how accurate they are. While Minnesota will not use direct recording electronic (DRE) voting machines, optical scanners are at risk for some of the same potential programming errors as DREs. Because of this risk, safeguards are essential to ensure accuracy. The review provides an important piece that has been missing in Minnesota elections.

The new review law requires a hand count of randomly selected precincts in every county. If the hand count from the review shows a difference (greater than 0.5 percent) compared with the machine count from Election Day, further hand counts are required. The races to be reviewed are U.S. Senate, U.S. House and governor.

more at:
http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/news/editorial/15831463.htm

[kpete]

5. New machines, procedures and close races could add up to a difficult Electi...

http://www.votetrustusa.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1924&Itemid=26

electionline Report Finds Potential for Trouble at Polls
By electionline.org
October 24, 2006
New machines, procedures and close races could add up to a difficult Election Day

Download electionline's report "Election Preview 2006: What’s Changed, What Hasn’t and Why”
http://www.votetrustusa.org/pdfs/electionline/Annual%20report%20FINAL.pdf

With the mid-term election two weeks away, a comprehensive report on the state of election administration around the country finds cause for concern in a number of states.

An estimated third of all voters will cast ballots on voting systems never before used in a general election, while new procedures and legal battles over voter identification could confuse voters, poll workers or both. Unfinished and just-completed statewide voter registration databases, required as of Jan. 1, 2006 by the Help America Vote Act, have led to some confusion in parts of the country as state agencies combine records and local election officials cede control of their long-held registration rosters.

"The ingredients are there for problems in some parts of the country,” said Doug Chapin, director of electionline,org, the nation’s leading nonpartisan and non-advocacy source for election reform analysis and information. “Any time you have new procedures, new voting systems that many poll workers and voters might not be familiar with and combine that with an election that could decide the fate of one or both branches of Congress, the potential is there for a messy November 7. The steps that have been taken to improve and modernize elections as part of HAVA could make things worse this year before it makes voting better in the future."

"Election Preview 2006: What’s Changed, What Hasn’t and Why”, issued today by electionline.org, provides an overview of the state of the American electoral system with 14 days remaining before the mid-term vote.



The report details specific election changes in each of the 50 states and identifies 10 “states to watch” on Election Day, detailing reasons why election problems could arise in each.

Among the nationwide findings from the report:

more at:
http://www.votetrustusa.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1924&Itemid=26

[kpete]

6. News groups sue over Ohio exit polling directive

News groups sue over Ohio exit polling directive
Associated Press
Tuesday, October 24, 2006

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — A coalition of national news organizations has challenged Secretary of State Ken Blackwell in court over his revised directive allowing exit polling within 100 feet of a voting place.

A lawsuit brought by five television networks — ABC, CNN, CBS, Fox News and NBC — and The Associated Press asks U.S. District Judge Michael H. Watson to move immediately to force Blackwell to clear up confusion over their legal rights to interview voters as they leave polls Nov. 7.

“The October 13 directive is, in a word, an outrage,” the lawsuit filed Monday states. “In the face of this Court's decree that ?Ohio's loitering statutes … cannot be interpreted to prohibit exit polls within the 100 foot designated area around polling places without violating the United States Constitution,' the secretary has told Ohio election officials that they can be.”

more at:
http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/linkframe.php?opedpg=http://www.dispatch.com/news-story.php?jrl=488191&story=221787&rfr=nwsl&clk=49826&opedid=24825

[Land Shark]

7. k&r, flattered by your good sense in selecting quotes ; ) n/t

[kpete]

8. Watching the Vote 2006

Watching the Vote 2006
By Election Protection Coalition
October 25, 2006
1-866-OUR-VOTE is the only national voter assistance hotline staffed by live call center operators trained to provide state specific assistance to all voters.



Lawyers, poll monitors and additional volunteers will be mobilized in 16 key states across the nation to assist voters in the days leading up to the election and on Election Day. Led by People For the American Way Foundation, the NAACP, and the Lawyers’ Committee For Civil Rights Under Law, Election Protection (EP) has operated in every election cycle since 2001, and is the nation’s most far-reaching nonpartisan effort to provide voter assistance and protect voter rights. The services will include bilingual assistance for areas with a heavy concentration of Spanish-speaking voters.


Trained volunteers will staff the Hotline providing immediate, state specific, assistance to callers. Call center operators will inform voters and solve problems on issues such as voter identification requirements, voting machine malfunctions, problems at the polling place, and voter intimidation. National call centers will be located in Washington, New York, Baltimore and San Francisco. Local call centers will be hosted in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and Minnesota.


While the toll-free hotline will be available to voters nationwide, EP’s ground operations will be concentrated in precincts most at risk for disenfranchisement, including low-income communities, African American and Latino communities, and areas with a history of voting irregularities. The coalition will operate in Arizona, Florida, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Louisiana, Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, Michigan, Massachusetts, South Carolina and Minnesota:


more at:
http://www.votetrustusa.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1927&Itemid=27

[kpete]

9. CNN's Lou Dobbs: Interview with EAC Commissioners

CNN's Lou Dobbs: Interview with Former Republican and Democratic EAC Commissioners Says, 'You Make Me Want to Cry'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-mhe_EqSmE&eurl=

[kpete]

10. Beware The High-Tech Ballot

Beware The High-Tech Ballot
Untested technology and poor training can lead to disaster
OCTOBER 23, 2006
Stephen H. Wildstrom


Even by the standards of Washington newspeak, the Help America Vote Act (HAVA) is in a class by itself. For more than 200 years, the U.S. ran elections quietly, efficiently, and mostly honestly. But since passage of the 2002 law, the simple act of casting a ballot has become the stuff of high drama. There's a lesson here about the use and abuse of technology.

HAVA was a response to the 2000 Presidential deadlock in Florida. But it was based on a misdiagnosis of the problem. The inescapable fact in Florida is that the outcome was a tie. George W. Bush's official margin over Al Gore was 0.009% of the votes cast, and since any method of casting or counting ballots involves error, that difference was just too fine to split. But images of butterfly ballots and hanging chads convinced politicians and the public that the problem was bad technology and that the solution lay in changing how the nation votes. HAVA provided more than $3 billion to pay for high-tech systems, and vendors rushed to fill the demand. Although there was no money for training, "states were forced to go out and buy equipment," says Jim Adler, president of VoteHere, a Bellevue (Wash.) firm that develops ballot auditing systems.

THE RESULT HAS BEEN CHAOS in one election after another, with worse likely in store for November. Much attention has been given to the fact that electronic voting machines, especially those made by Diebold Election Systems, may be vulnerable to attacks by hackers. And Princeton University computer scientist Edward Felten recently showed that the physical lock that protects Diebold machines from tampering can be opened with keys easily purchased on the Internet.

more at:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_43/b4006045.htm

[kpete]

11. Potential problems loom in election voting

Potential problems loom in election voting By Randall Mikkelsen
Tue Oct 24, 7:24 PM ET



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Long lines and long counts threaten to mar next month's U.S. congressional elections as millions of Americans put new voting machines and rules to the test, election officials and experts say.

The result could be delays in knowing whether Democrats capture one or both houses of the U.S. Congress, or whether President George W. Bush's Republicans keep control.

"In close elections, it may be days and weeks before a winner is known in a particular race," said Paul DeGregorio, chairman of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, created to oversee a 2002 election law overhaul.

He forecast, however, an improvement over previous elections and said, "I think voters can trust the system."

more at:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061024/ts_nm/usa_politics_voting_dc_4

[kpete]

12. Election Protection Launches National Voter Assistance Hotline

Election Protection Launches National Voter Assistance Hotline
Oct. 23, 2006 --

As the November elections approach, the nonpartisan Election Protection Coalition is launching its national 1-866-OUR VOTE voter assistance hotline and the poll location web site www.MyPollingPlace.com . 1-866-OUR-VOTE is the only national voter assistance hotline staffed by live call center operators trained to provide state specific assistance to all voters. Lawyers, poll monitors and additional volunteers will be mobilized in 16 key states across the nation to assist voters in the days leading up to the election and on Election Day.

Led by People For the American Way Foundation, the NAACP, and the Lawyers’ Committee For Civil Rights Under Law, Election Protection (EP) has operated in every election cycle since 2001, and is the nation’s most far-reaching nonpartisan effort to provide voter assistance and protect voter rights. The services will include bilingual assistance for areas with a heavy concentration of Spanish-speaking voters.


Trained volunteers will staff the hotline providing immediate, state specific, assistance to callers. Call center operators will inform voters and solve problems on issues such as voter identification requirements, voting machine malfunctions, problems at the polling place, and voter intimidation. National call centers will be located in Washington, New York, Baltimore, and San Francisco. Local call centers will be hosted in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and Minnesota.

While the toll-free hotline will be available to voters nationwide, EP’s ground operations will be concentrated in precincts most at risk for disenfranchisement, including low-income communities, African American and Latino communities, and areas with a history of voting irregularities. The coalition will operate in Arizona, Florida, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Louisiana, Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, Michigan, Massachusetts, South Carolina and Minnesota:

more at:
http://www.allamericanpatriots.com/m-news+article+storyid-16813.html

[kpete]

13. 2004-Jimmy Carter-Still Seeking a Fair Florida Vote

Still Seeking a Fair Florida Vote

By Jimmy Carter
Monday, September 27, 2004; Page A19

After the debacle in Florida four years ago, former president Gerald Ford and I were asked to lead a blue-ribbon commission to recommend changes in the American electoral process. After months of concerted effort by a dedicated and bipartisan group of experts, we presented unanimous recommendations to the president and Congress. The government responded with the Help America Vote Act of October 2002. Unfortunately, however, many of the act's key provisions have not been implemented because of inadequate funding or political disputes.

The disturbing fact is that a repetition of the problems of 2000 now seems likely, even as many other nations are conducting elections that are internationally certified to be transparent, honest and fair.


The Carter Center has monitored more than 50 elections, all of them held under contentious, troubled or dangerous conditions. When I describe these activities, either in the United States or in foreign forums, the almost inevitable questions are: "Why don't you observe the election in Florida?" and "How do you explain the serious problems with elections there?"

The answer to the first question is that we can monitor only about five elections each year, and meeting crucial needs in other nations is our top priority. (Our most recent ones were in Venezuela and Indonesia, and the next will be in Mozambique.) A partial answer to the other question is that some basic international requirements for a fair election are missing in Florida.

The most significant of these requirements are:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52800-2004Sep26.html

[kpete]

14. Lack of paper trail makes some voters leery

Lack of paper trail makes some voters leery

By TJ Aulds
The Daily News

Published October 24, 2006

Scott Jones is a bit old fashioned. He likes an election ballot he can actually touch.

He doesn’t have much faith in electronic voting systems.

“I don’t think it’s a good idea not to have a paper trail,” said Jones, a League City resident who was put off that there was not a paper ballot option when he went to vote Monday morning, the first day of early voting.

“Even if there is a just a chance of fraud being perpetrated, that’s scary,” he said.

Jones is so adamant about having a paper ballot he has a “Demand a paper ballot” bumper sticker on his car.

He isn’t alone. As more election officials roll out digital voting systems, more voters are questioning their security and worrying about election fraud.

http://news.galvestondailynews.com/story.lasso?ewcd=5e5ae983a5427e64

[kpete]

15. Milwaukee woman put on probation for voter fraud

Milwaukee woman put on probation for voter fraud

(Published Tuesday, October 24, 2006 10:14:32 AM CDT)

Associated Press

MILWAUKEE - A 49-year-old woman convicted of falsifying voter-registration cards for cash before the 2004 presidential election has been sentenced to three years of probation.

Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Mel Flanagan issued the sentence Monday for Urelene Lilly of Milwaukee, who was convicted in August of felony counts of misconduct in public office and election fraud.

She will have to serve four months on an electronic-monitoring bracelet as part of her sentence, and faces a year in prison if she violates terms of her probation.

The criminal complaint said Lilly had filled out dozens of voter-registration cards using names from the phone book and made-up birthdates and Social Security numbers.

more at:
http://www.gazetteextra.com/eln_voterfraud102406.asp

[kpete]

16. Michael Collins: PROTECTING THE DEMOCRATIC VOTE:

Election Fraud 2006 – Quantifying The Risk
Wednesday, 25 October 2006, 9:24 pm
Article: Michael Collins

PROTECTING THE DEMOCRATIC VOTE:
House and Senate Take Over Looks Good

Potential Election Fraud And Certain
Confusion At Polls Threaten Public Will.

By Michael Collins and TruthIsAll
“Scoop” Independent News
Washington, DC

************

FOREWORD: Four years ago in the 2002 US Congressional Midterm elections the polls pointed to close races in a number of key gubernatorial and senatorial races. In the vote count on election night however nearly all the cards fell in favour of the GOP. On election day November 2002 the GOP won control of the Senate and secured itself a rare lock on all three elected branches of Federal US political system.

much, much more:
http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/linkframe.php?opedpg=http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0610/S00377.htm&opedid=24845

[kpete]

17. Watching The Vote

Watching The Vote


From faulty electronic voting machines to voter challenges and intimidation, there's plenty of concern this year about whether every vote cast will be counted and whether every voter who can legally vote will be allowed to. According to Barbara Arnwine, the executive director of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights, this election "poses significant challenges for voters more than any time in recent history, with an estimated 30 million voters using new machines for the first time." Fortunately, the Lawyers' Committee and other civil rights groups are organizing efforts to watch the November 7 voting process like hawks. Read on to find out how you can join their effort.

Here's the latest press release from the nonpartisan Election Protection coalition, which is launching a national 1-866-OUR VOTE voter assistance hotline and poll location web site www.MyPollingPlace.com .

1-866-OUR-VOTE is the only national voter assistance hotline staffed by live call center operators trained to provide state specific assistance to all voters. Lawyers, poll monitors and additional volunteers will be mobilized in 16 key states across the nation to assist voters in the days leading up to the election and on Election Day. Led by People For the American Way Foundation, the NAACP, and the Lawyers’ Committee For Civil Rights Under Law, Election Protection (EP) has operated in every election cycle since 2001, and is the nation’s most far-reaching nonpartisan effort to provide voter assistance and protect voter rights. The services will include bilingual assistance for areas with a heavy concentration of Spanish-speaking voters.

Trained volunteers will staff the Hotline providing immediate, state specific, assistance to callers. Call center operators will inform voters and solve problems on issues such as voter identification requirements, voting machine malfunctions, problems at the polling place, and voter intimidation. National call centers will be located in Washington, New York, Baltimore and San Francisco. Local call centers will be hosted in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and Minnesota.

more at:
http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/linkframe.php?opedpg=http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/10/25/watching_the_vote.php&opedid=24867

[kpete]

18. Internet Voting Revisited

Internet Voting Revisited
By David Jefferson, Avi Rubin, Barbara Simons, and David Wagner
October 25, 2006
Security and Identity Theft Risks of the DoD’s Interim Voting Assistance System

Background

In 2004 the Defense Department Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP) built and intendedto deploy a voting system called SERVE, the Secure Electronic Registration and VotingExperiment, designed to help military personnel and overseas civilians to register and vote in theprimary and general elections of that year. As members of an external peer review panel for SERVE, we published a report entitled “A Security Analysis of the Secure Electronic Registration and Voting Experiment (SERVE),”. In the report we identified a large number of security risks and vulnerabilities, including denial of service attacks, insider attacks, viral attacks on voters’ PCs, and many others. Shortly after publication of the report, the DoD terminated the program, citing security concerns.

We recently learned that FVAP has created a new online system, the Interim Voting Assistance System (IVAS). IVAS has a similar mission, namely to aid military personnel and overseas civilians to register and vote in the coming November 7 general election. In this short paper wepresent our serious concerns about the security issues posed by this new system.

None of these security concerns is original; all were raised in a DoD internal review, discussed below.



IVAS was announced to the public only last month (September)1, and has been designed and built only over the last several months2, an extremely short time for a system of this complexity and importance. The current system has never been used in a public election before (not even in a primary), and has not been subject to any publicly available external security examination. The technical specifications have not been made publicly available.

more at:
http://www.votetrustusa.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1928&Itemid=26

[kpete]

19. How Will We Know Who Really Won on Nov. 7?

How Will We Know Who Really Won on Nov. 7?

Voting machine stories are scary -- like yesterday's that "James H. 'Jim' Webb" is too long for electronic voting machines, and so his last name, Webb, has been cut off in three significant Virginia cities. Voters in Alexandria, Falls Church and Charlottesville will have to figure out that "James H. 'Jim'" is really Jim Webb. Even scarier is that there's no way to detect machine hacking nor is there any way for a voter to prove he voted.

My local friend Barbara recently wrote a heck of a letter to an aide to Sen. Maria Cantwell, Washington state's freshman incumbent who's thankfully leading her GOP challenger Mike McGavick by 8-11 points. (McGavick's a former SAFECO CEO who got himself paid a golden parachute of $28 million while laying off over 1,000 Safeco employees.) Here's Barbara's letter:


Lots more at:
http://noquarter.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/10/how_will_we_kno.html

[kpete]

20. Stealing the Midterms and the Power of Myth

Stealing the Midterms and the Power of Myth
Mike Whitney
October 24, 2006

"The masses have never thirsted after truth. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim". Gustave Le Bon;"The Crowd"

Karl Rove is not Harry Houdini. He can’t change the fact that the Democrats could take up to 40 seats in the House and that the Republicans may lose the Senate as well. He can’t change the national polling-data which favors the Democrats by a considerable margin, or the exit polling which is predicted to show substantial Democratic gains too. And, there’s nothing Rove can do to stop the perception that the elections are now expected to be a Democratic landslide extending from sea to shining sea. The only thing that Rove can do to win the midterms is to purge the voting roles in key states and crank up the voting machines to "full-tilt".

But even that won’t be enough this time.

The problem with that strategy is that it will only increase the suspicion that the elections have been rigged. Given the current projections, any massive voter tampering is likely to trigger a public outcry that will inevitably result in an investigation. That’s not what Rove or anyone else on the Bush team wants.

So what is Rove supposed to do?

much more at:
http://www.uruknet.biz/?p=m27722&hd=0&size=1&l=e

[kpete]

21. Midterms: Vote or Diebold

Midterms: Vote or Diebold
An amnesiac president, a new contender for 2008, and fresh questions over e-voting security.
Ben Whitford

• Two weeks until polling day, and attention is fixed on a triumvirate of key Senate races: Tennessee, Virginia and Missouri. Victory in two of the three states - all currently too close to call - would give the Democrats a strong chance of winning control of the Senate.

Thomas Schaller isn't sure the Dems can pull it off, though. Writing at In These Times, he argues despite the current polls, the party's core support is still concentrated in the north-eastern states. "Whatever the magnitude of the coming changes, two things are certain," he writes. "The Democrats are going to gain seats in the 2006 midterms, and those gains will come from outside the south."

• With Iraq looming large in voters' minds, it probably wasn't the best time for the president to develop temporary amnesia and claim that his administration's policy "had never been 'stay the course'". ThinkProgress has the interview - and transcripts of Bush's previous "stay the course" soundbites. (Jon Stewart is also well on top of things.)

"Like the Bourbon Kings, this administration forgets everything and forgives nothing," writes Reed Hundt at TMP Cafe. "But his words have this meaning: the White House knows that it is losing in Iraq; or more precisely, the American forces are being squeezed out of Iraq by the escalating civil war. So after the election, changes will be made. But the voters aren't to be told this truth now."

Incidentally, Time's Joe Klein has been on the road with Bush in Virginia, where the president is stumping for George "Macaca" Allen. You know you're having a bad day when even the squash start rebelling:

more at:
http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/linkframe.php?opedpg=http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/ben_whitford/2006/10/midterms_1.html&opedid=24890

[kpete]

22. Pull the Plug on E-Voting

Pull the Plug on E-Voting

by Bruce O'Dell

http://www.opednews.com



Pull the plug on e-Voting

Part 1 of 2

The FBI is investigating the "possible theft" of the Diebold touch screen voting software in Maryland. Excuse me... but I fail to see what all the fuss is about. I certainly don't condone theft; it's just that I don't understand why anyone would bother with stealing the Diebold source code - or why anyone would take the time to read it.

Don't get me wrong: I've spent twenty five years in the financial services industry helping to protect billions of dollars of other people's money. I designed internet security services as an employee of American Express to protect the online financial identities of hundreds of thousands of people, and recently spent a year at one of the twenty largest companies in America as chief architect of a project to replace the foundation of all their internal and external security systems. I understand risks from thieves and embezzlers - I've designed financial audit and control systems. In the world I work in, there's no room for excuses.

Source code is irrelevant

I'll let you in on a dirty little secret of the computing profession: in the real world, there's simply no way to ensure that any program alleged to be written by Programmer Bob on June 24th bears any relationship whatsoever to what actually runs on computer "X" thousands of miles away on November 7th. Even if Programmer Bob's corporate public relations and sales reps swear up and down that it must be so.

When it comes to security, source code is irrelevant. The actual behavior of a computer at point of use is the only thing that matters. Yet many of my IT colleagues continue to believe that it is somehow possible to look at a vendor's source code and determine what a particular voting computer will actually do in a precinct or county election office during an election. This seems to be the rationale behind "open source voting": if I can see the program is benevolent, then must be safe to use. Sounds plausible. But in reality any computer academic or professional practitioner who tells you that anyone on earth can determine whether a vote tabulation system is secure and accurate simply by looking at a source code document... is either ill-informed or lying.

more at:
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_bruce_o__061025_pull_the_plug_on_e_v.htm

[rumpel]

23. OH: Ohio secretary of state rules out scanning absentees early

The Beacon Journal

Posted on Wed, Oct. 25, 2006

THOMAS J. SHEERAN
Associated Press
CLEVELAND - County election boards facing a surge in absentee ballots from voters concerned about polling-place lines and problems were warned by the state Wednesday against counting or even computer-scanning absentee votes before Election Day.

Some local election boards facing heavy absentee-ballot use have pressed for permission to scan ballots into computers before Election Day, while holding off on tallying votes until the state-mandated start of 7:30 p.m. on Election Day.

"Ohio law simply does not allow ballots to be counted prior to Election Day," said James Lee, spokesman for Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, Ohio's chief election officer and the Republican candidate for governor in the Nov. 7 election.

"Boards of elections can open up absentee ballots, lay them flat in order to get the creases out," Lee said.

The secretary of state's office considers computer scanning of absentee ballots - even if totals aren't tabulated - as prohibited early counting, Lee said.

The issue of early scanning has emerged in Columbus and Cleveland, where every registered voter received a mailed absentee ballot application to encourage absentee voting with the goal of reducing possible election lines and problems. A new Ohio law allows anyone to vote absentee. In the past, people had to give an accepted reason for not voting in person.

http://www.ohio.com/mld/beaconjournal/news/state/15845855.htm

[rumpel]

24. CA: Cunningham Successor Faces Legal Controversy, Too

Truthout

By Thomas D. Williams
t r u t h o u t | Report

Wednesday 25 October 2006

San Diego Republican Congressman Brian Bilbray, now in the midst of a California elections campaign, is trapped in a spinning political and legal controversy over whether his prime residence is in California or Virginia.

The issue became a nagging question for Bilbray, 55, a surfer, most of whose roots are in California, as a result of a sworn statement he made in a Fairfax County, Virginia, 2005 deed of trust. It made 8930 Linton Lane, Alexandria, Virginia, his "prime residence."

After losing a California Congressional election to Susan Davis in 2000, Bilbray soon moved to Washington, DC, to become a lobbyist. He represented tribal issues, a border-sewage treatment project and an anti-illegal immigration group, the Associated Press reports.

Land records show he retains that Alexandria residence, while also using and listing family residences in Imperial Beach and Carlsbad, California, where the Bilbrays report they began living when he once again successfully ran for congress in a special election earlier this year. A call Tuesday to the Alexandria, Virginia, Real Estate Division confirmed he still owns the property there.

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/102506R.shtml

discussion:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x454696

[Algorem]

25. Cuyahoga elections board promises to count absentees election night

http://www.wkyc.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=58406

Elections board promises to count absentee ballots election night

Created: 10/25/2006 5:47:15 PM
Updated:10/25/2006 11:21:44 PM

The Cuyahoga County Board of Elections is finding out that voters are listening.

After problems with electronic voting machines in May, the election board recommended voters, ask for absentee ballots...

So is the board ready?

Election officials promise we'll have the absentee ballots counted election night, even if Secretary of State Ken Blackwell's office is not making things any easier.


Video-

http://www.wkyc.com/video/player.aspx?aid=27752&bw=

[Algorem]

26. Blacklash: Ken Blackwell could be Ohio's first black governor -- if only...

blacks could stand him.

http://www.clevescene.com/Issues/2006-10-25/news/news.html

By Kevin Hoffman
Article Published Oct 25, 2006

Nothing about Lang Dunbar seems radical. A 70-year-old man in bifocals and a floppy hat, he possesses a genial smile and a Wal-Mart greeter's enthusiasm.

But you wouldn't know it from the reactions of passersby as he hands out fliers near the entrance of the Cleveland zoo.

An aging hippie with an earring and New Balance sneakers looks at the pamphlet and smiles conspiratorially. "This, I like."

A gray-haired woman in Jackie O sunglasses takes one look and says, "Oh my!"...






Kept Woman
It's time to take out Mike DeWine.

http://www.clevescene.com/Issues/2006-10-25/news/kotz.html

By Pete Kotz
Article Published Oct 25, 2006

You believe in America, am I right?

I'm not talking about the Hollywood version, with its prancing silicone who age into taxidermy experiments. Not the New York version, where they got sticks so far up their ass they rival the lumber selection at Home Depot. And certainly not the Washington version, where high school class presidents migrate to play statesmen, then behave like human Pepsi machines: Insert $1 and select the legislation of your choice.

What I'm talking about is the real America. The stranger who helps push your car out of the snow. The neighbor who watches your kids when you're late getting home from work. Boys playing pick-up football, mechanics who don't steal, waitresses who call you "hon," old ladies at Mass who smile with the voltage of 1,000 angels.

That America. She's a good one, don't you think?...

[Algorem]

27. Will Ken Blackwell find the ways to steal Ohio 2006 as he did in 2004?

http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2006/2195

by Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman
October 26, 2006

The man who stole Ohio for George W. Bush in 2004 is now trying to steal it for himself in 2006. The question is: who will stop him, and will he also affect the balance of power in the U.S. Congress?

As election day approaches, Blackwell's dirty tricks sink ever deeper.

Blackwell is now using "push polls" made infamous by Karl Rove. True to form, child molestation charges are front and center. He has also escalated the mass disenfranchisement of Ohio voters, trashing the ballots of some ten percent of absentee voters. He has eliminated the state-wide ballot initiative meant to save workers rights and wages. He's even tried to strike the Democratic gubernatorial nominee from the ballot altogether. All of which could affect not only his race for governor, but key U.S. Senate and House races as well.

Blackwell is using Rove's notoriously deceptive push poll device to spread an unsubstantiated smear against his Democratic gubernatorial opponent, Ted Strickland. Push polls were rendered infamous when Rove used them in South Carolina to falsely suggest that Senator John McCain had fathered a mixed-race child. Often the impact of push polls is magnified by callers to talk shows that spread additional street rumors, as in the lie that McCain impregnated a black hooker. The reality in McCain's case: he had adopted a child from one of Mother Teresa's orphanages and prominently displayed her in his campaign literature...

[autorank]

28. "I am autorank and I endorse this thread."

[autorank]

29. PROTECTING THE DEMOCRATIC VOTE

Link:http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0610/S00377.htm

PROTECTING THE DEMOCRATIC VOTE:

House and Senate Take Over Looks Good

Potential election fraud and certain
confusion at polls threaten public will.

Michael Collins and TruthisAll
"Scoop" Independent News
Washington, DC

Rev. DeForest Soaries, former head of the U.S. Elections Assistance Commission (EAC) said that voting conditions are “ripe for stealing elections and for fraud.” When a Bush appointee to the EAC makes this remark, it puts election fraud right at the center of the table. The upcoming elections are critical to the well being of the United States and the rest of the world. Given the recent history of strongly suspected election fraud, we need superior intelligence and added diligence to spot any foul play early. The potential for of investigation, revelations, and pounding the table for a fair election since 2004 has been squandered. Last minute bills for emergency paper ballots are going no where. We’re stuck with a voting system that is measurably less reliable than 2000 according to Rev. Soaries.

Yet, there is still a potential for the Democrats to win not only the Congressional Elections but to stave off the many temptations to interfere with the intent of “We the people.” Awareness by candidates, party officials, and, most critically, the grass roots activists is imperative. A huge turnout is also part of a fraud fighting strategy. The more participation, the more eye witnesses, the better our democracy is served. This document outlines the states and districts where the margins are thin and extreme diligence is required. Please forward the “Print” version of this article to the Democratic National Committee and the candidates in question.

This analysis by internet poster TruthIsAll is intended to provide a set of focal points and formulae to look for fraud. It’s offered in the spirit of winning through awareness and diligence and assuring that the winners are actually those candidates, of either party, who received a plurality of votes in free and fair elections.

For those who don’t believe that elections are vulnerable to the type of fraud Rev. Soires mentioned:

Remember 2000, Florida
Remember 2002 Georgia - Cleland & Barnes
Remember 2004 Ohio and the rest of the country
Remember 2005 Ohio Special Election - Hackett
Remember 2005 Ohio Special Measures Election

The list is much longer but this makes the point to anyone who has followed electoral politics since 2000. Democrats need to anticipate the combination punches the Republicans throw in their election beat down, (e.g., voter suppression, spoiled ballots, tossed ballots, e-voting security problems, e-voting provided by Republican leaning vendors, etc. etc.). There will be a broad outline of risks later in the article but first the good news.

The Prospects for Democrats Look Very Good

The strong Democratic trend continues. They lead the GOP by 16.5% in the 3-poll Moving Average, a 7% increase in the last month. Undecided (Other) voters, currently at 5-7%, appear to be breaking by 2-1 for the Democrats.

These charts display the positive slope of the Democratic trend vs. the flat GOP trend during the past 12 months across generic congressional polls. Chart 1 Chart 2




The House: A Monte Carlo Election Simulation Forecast

1000 simulated trial elections. Based on Polls as of Oct.14

Current House: 232 Republicans; 202 Democrats; 1 Independent

The Democrats need to capture 16 Republicans seats (net) to gain control of the House. How many of the 58-contested Republican House seats can the Democrats expect to win, assuming a fraud-free election?

Corollary: How many elections will the Republicans need “win” to maintain control?

In the most likely scenario other the Democrats will win 60% of the undecided vote, they can expect to capture 32 of the 58 Republican-held seats. There is a 99% probability that they will win 30 or more. Therefore, the Republicans will have to steal a minimum of 16 elections in order to retain the House.

Of the 58 polls:

1) Democrats lead in 15 races beyond the MoE
2) Democrats lead in 11 within the MoE
3) Democrats tie the Republicans in 5
4) Republicans lead in 15 within the MoE
5) Republicans lead in 12 beyond the MoE

The closest races within the margin of error are the ones most likely to be “ripe for stealing elections and for fraud,” as Rev. Soaries says, voter suppression, and those “coincidences” or machine malfunctions including vote switching. They are the 22 districts between PA-6 and NY-29 in the chart: Chart

The analysis assumes nearly zero fraud and is based strictly on the latest poll shares, undecided voter allocation and margin of error. The model will be updated for new polling data and run again just prior to election day.

The simulation calculates the probability of the Democrats winning a specified number of the 58 seats, over a range of undecided voter allocation assumptions. It provides a very robust estimate of the minimum number of elections that would need to be stolen in order for the Republicans to retain control of the House.

In a published study of over 150 incumbent elections, the challenger won the undecided vote in 82% of the races, the incumbent won in 12%, and the rest were split. Even with the very conservative UVA assumption that the undecided vote will be evenly split, then assuming the elections are fraud-free, it is a virtual 100% probability that the Democrats will net at least 25 Republican seats, or nine more than the minimum required for House control.

Sensitivity Analysis:

UVA: Undecided voter % allocated to Democrats
N: number of Republican seats won by Democrats
e.g. 25 seats gained at 50%> UVA



With a 60% UVA, the Democrats can
See a pick up of 34 seats at 51% probability.


This chart displays the probability curve: click here.

US House of Representatives: 58 Races in Play

House Polling Detail. Races 1-10:




Full 58 House Races here.
House Probabilities here.
Democratic % here

Races 48-58:



These are the districts with the highest probability of fraud, voter suppression, or “coincidental” equipment problems. The races are all within the margin of error and thus would raise less of a question should they result in one of those last minute comebacks to put the Republicans over the top.



The Senate: A Monte Carlo Election Simulation Forecast

(1000 simulated trial elections
Based on Polls as of Oct.14)

Current Senate: 55 Republicans; 44 Democrats; 1 Independent

There are nine critical races: New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia, Missouri, Connecticut, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island

The Democrats need to hold their lead in New Jersey and win 6 of the other 8 seats for a 50-49-1 majority. They have solid leads in 5 GOP seats, a narrow lead in TENNESSEE, and are slightly behind in Virginia. Lieberman (Ind) is far ahead in CT. Assuming they win the 5 solid GOP seats and retain New Jersey seat, they need to win either Virginia or Tennessee for a majority.

Therefore, Virginia and Tennessee should be closely monitored for fraud or other irregularities.

Probability of Democratic Victories in the Senate.

Sensitivity Analysis: Assuming zero election fraud and that the Democrats capture 60% of the undecided vote (UVA), then with an election based on these polls, there is a 99% probability that they will win a 50-49 senate majority. The win probability is slightly lower (91%) if the undecided vote is split (50% UVA).



The analysis shows the relationship between undecided voter decisions at different splits between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate races. At a 50%-50% split with undecideds, the Democrats should pick up six seats right now. The hurdle to a larger pick up is significant given current polls. This can change quickly with adjusted poll data indicating a shift in public preferences. The difficult of getting above six seats reinforces the need for greater attention to signs of election fraud.

Sensitivity Analysis

Assuming there is zero election fraud and that the Democrats capture 60% of the undecided vote (UVA), and then if the election was today there is a 99% probability that they will win a 50-49 senate majority. The win probability is slightly lower (91%) if the undecided vote is split (50% UVA).

UVA is the Democratic undecided voter allocation (%),

U.S. Senate: 29 Seats up for Election



Those marked in yellow are the critical races, and are top targets
for voter suppression and election fraud problems.

PROB is the probability of a Democratic win (assuming a 60% UVA)

Unweighted Poll Average: Dem: 49.5%, Rep: 42.2%, Prob.: 74.3%

Full list of Senate Races here. Senate Races by Democratic % here.

These races are still fluid and shifts are common in the last two weeks of the campaign. Based on the data, these are the races that will determine control of the US Senate. Unless the Democrats plan for a 1994 election shift, special attention is required. Of these states, Pennsylvania had numerous election irregularities in 2004; Ohio’s election was a disgrace; Missouri was the site of poll closing and other controversies; Tennessee experienced problems with electronic voting. In 2005 Virginia had a recount that didn’t allow counting optical scan ballots!

Note that the polls and associated probabilities do not factor in spoiled and lost votes (mostly democratic) which occur in every election. This suggests that the net Democratic lead may be 1% lower than the polls suggest. On the other hand, the undecided vote (currently 5%) usually splits in favor of the challenger - in this case, the Democrat. So we may have a wash here.

The calculations don’t factor in a sudden event, an “October” surprise, for example, that might shift more races into one of the three categories. Given the impact of the Foley scandal and the likelihood of more in that or another emerging from the scandal rich terrain of the Republican congress, this is a very real possibility. In addition, ABC News, in part of a general press turn around to more coverage is actually raising the likelihood of what they call “bias” as a result of e-voting. “Bias” here is surely a code word for fraud since machines need human intervention be biased

The Election Fraud BEAT DOWN

The beat down first showed up in Florida when Republicans unified and did everything they could to scare Democrats off and turn a loss into a stolen election. With the exception of Al Gore resisting, the balance of the Democratic leadership stood back and allowed the distortions, “preppy riots,” and outrageous Supreme Court decision to go unchallenged. Beat down refers to the strategies of voter suppression, voter disenfranchisement, and extreme “leveraging” of technology that seems to favor Republican candidates time after time.

Greg Palast outlined key strategies that have nothing to do with electronic voting. These are time honored techniques that have been honed to perfection over decades. The following four points are provided in Palast’s new article, Recipe for a Cooked Election in YES magazine:

Four Traditional Voter Suppression Strategies from Greg Palast: No E-Voting Required

• Provisional Ballots Rejected. An entirely new species of ballot debuted nationwide in 2004: the "provisional ballot." These were crucial to the Bush victory. Not because Republicans won this "provisional" vote. They won by rejecting provisional ballots that were cast overwhelmingly in Democratic precincts. The sum of "the uncounted" is astonishing: 675,676 ballots lost in the counties reporting to the federal government. Add in the missing jurisdictions and the un-vote climbs to over a million: 1,090,729 provisional ballots tossed out.

• Spoiled Ballots. You vote, you assume it’s counted. Think again. Your "x" was too light for a machine to read. You didn’t punch the card hard enough and so you "hung your chad." Therefore, your vote didn’t count and, crucially, you’ll never know it. The federal Election Assistance Commission toted up nearly a million ballots cast but not counted. Add in states too shy to report to Washington, the total “spoilage” jumps to a rotten 1,389,231.

• Absentee Ballots Uncounted. The number of absentee ballots has quintupled in many states, with the number rejected on picayune technical grounds rising to over half a million (526,420) in 2004. In swing states, absentee ballot shredding was pandemic.

• Voters Barred from Voting. In this category we find a combination of incompetence and trickery that stops voters from pulling the lever in the first place. There’s the purge of "felon" voters that continues to eliminate thousands whose only crime is VWB — Voting While Black.It includes subtle games like eliminating polling stations in selected districts, creating impossible lines. No one can pretend to calculate a hard number for all votes lost this way any more than you can find every bullet fragment in a mutilated body. But it’s a safe bet that the numbers reach into the hundreds of thousands of voters locked out of the voting booth.

Greg Palast 10.2006

The inherent unreliability of electronic voting Electronic voting is always in secret and controlled by private vendors. Two of the three major vendors are United States corporations with very serious Republican ties. The third is foreign with undetermined ownership. The GOP-friendly voting machines (and companies) have major security risks including vulnerability to hacking, malicious code, subtle pre programming. These apply tooptical scan and touch screenvoting machines. These security problems have been clearly demonstrated by world leading computer security expert Haari Hursti’s hacks of both touch screen and optical scan machines and the recent Princeton University study.

Electronic vote tampering leaves no evidence for a prosecution. If the equipment can’t be monitored sufficiently to catch fraud, it becomes a menace to voter confidence and the ability to insure that those elected and serving were actually elected in the first place. The ElectionArcive.Org makes the following key points in a pdf on election problems that is vital for everyone concerned about free, fair and accessible elections (click on link to download the entire presentation, a must for activists).

National Election Data Archive
P.O. 682556 Park City, UT 84068

Electronic Vote Tampering Leaves No
Evidence to prosecute with>

Machine code is not humanly readable

Hundreds of programs on every machine

Many months to reverse-engineer one voting machine

Reverse engineering may find no evidence

Network connections, hidden wireless cards or viruses
in proprietary hardware & software can be used to
undetectably shift just enough votes to change an election.
© 2006 US Counts Votes

There should never be any need to review presentations like the outstanding resource provided by the ElectionArchive.Org, but there is one now. Given the ongoing voter suppression strategies in place for decades plus the new opportunities of elections through various means of digital exploitation, the time for vigilance is now. Everyone who is able should show up and vote. Everyone who is able should be involved with their elections demanding that they be run openly, fairly, and inclusively. Those who experience problems should report them. And those who are particularly motivated can contact these organizations who will provide outlets for the type of energy necessary to develop an election system that will allow us to say with certainty that we live in a real democracy. Free, fair, transparent, and inclusive elections will also allow those who assume office to actually prove that they have the right and mandate to do so through a legitimate election.


Partial list of groups working against voter suppression and election fraud:

The NAACP
Election Defense Alliance
League of Women Voters Velvet Revolution
Advancement Project


©Copyright: Please feel free to reproduce and distribute this in any fashion you feel suitable with an attribution of authorship and the publisher, “Scoop” Independent News, plus a link to the article.

[Algorem]

30. Cuyahoga Prosecutor would OK plan to defy Blackwell,scan absentees

(<"We have to lock down the election," board Chairman Bob Bennett said> "Lock down this election"? What an odd thing for Ohio Republican Chairman/Cuyahoga County Board of Elections Chairman Bob Bennett to say.)

http://www.cleveland.com/search/index.ssf?/base/cuyahoga/116185159296840.xml?ncounty_cuyahoga&coll=2

Vu won't ask to scan ballots early

Prosecutor says he would OK plan if elections board would just seek ruling

Thursday, October 26, 2006
Joan Mazzolini
Plain Dealer Reporter

Cuyahoga County Prosecutor Bill Mason is ready to tell elections officials they can defy Secretary of State Ken Blackwell and scan thousands of absentee ballots days before Election Day, ensuring that results are ready on Election Night.

If only elections officials would ask.

But the county elections board does not plan to ask for the opinion. Officials had planned to seek it but changed their minds Wednesday. They will try to scan more than 100,000 ballots in 20 hours on Election Day, relying on their scanners to work faster than they have in the past.

"We have to lock down the election," board Chairman Bob Bennett said in an interview. "We can't be involved in a legal fight. The secretary of state says it's illegal. . . . I don't want to take the risk."...


Thursdays 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM

And Everybody is Okay With This?

http://www.wruw.org/guide/show.php?show_id=334

with Victoria (Lovegren)

Thursdays 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM

Genre(s): Public Affairs

I will be reading articles, playing tapes of speeches/programs, interviewing guests, and playing music that will heighten public awareness of government and corporate abuses and empower people to participate in true democracy.


http://wecount2006.org/radioblog




http://www.awfradio.com /

http://www.welw.com/programming/schedule.html