Franklin County Ohio results analysis

[jmknapp]

Here's a web page showing the unofficial results and charts based on the same for Franklin County (Columbus) Ohio:

http://copperas.com/fcelection

Joe

[owenthewonderdog]

1. High Street

Still seems pretty Liberal. :hippie:

I'm OSU '92

I was suprised Kerry did so well in Franklin County but from your maps you can see the concentration of precints around Rte 23, including the Short North and Victorian and German Village. Towards I-270 still sees the same tendancy to red.

[jhgatiss]

3. Franklin County is...

a county in transition. Its no longer the conservative stronghold that it used to be. As far as city and county offices go, the Democrats have a firm grip on all of those positions. The Democratic precincts extend beyond just the Short North, Victorian Village, and German Village to the Clintonville area, Old Town East with its high African American population, and the Hilltop area with its largely working class population. Even a few precincts in Upper Arlington were carried by Kerry. Upper Arlington had a very visible UA for Kerry campaign which I would wager is unlikely to dissolve even after the election.

[jhgatiss]

2. Thank you...

for doing this analysis of Franklin county. I was going to do this sort of examination myself last night but I noticed the BOE pulled the ward by ward PDF file from their website. If you still have a copy saved locally, I'd love it if you could e-mail it to me.

I think the most interesting thing here is that where there is a higher turnout there is a lower percentage for Kerry relatively speaking. Does that seem odd to anyone else?

[jmknapp]

4. Kerry turnout

I think that the lower turnout in the Kerry precincts is unfortunately nothing new for Democrats. Here is a similar chart for the 2000 election:



There may have been a little more upturn towards the right in 2000. Interesting phenomenon, if real, that >90% Democratic precincts (i.e., heavily African American) turn out more than 80% Democratic precincts.

Here is the 2004 chart for comparison, with the same kind of third-order trend line:



So there may have been some suppression in the >90% pecincts. One type of suppression would have been defacto. Not everyone had the ability to take 4 hours out of their work day to vote. I saw several people leaving the line at my polling place.