CLOSE TO EVIDENCE!!!

[jsamuel]

Edit: Palm Beach County, Florida

Absentee Kerry: 58%
Absentee Bush: 42%
Absentee Total: 91,038
Kerry Absentee Margin: +16

Early Kerry: 72%
Early Bush: 28%
Early Total: 49,365
Kerry Early Voting Margin: +43

Election Day Kerry: 40%
Election Day Bush: 60%
Election Day Total: 404,666
Kerry Election Day Margin: -20
http://www.redefeatbush.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=293

So, according to this, in one of the most Democratic counties in Florida, on election day Kerry managed to loose to Bush 60% to 40%. Hmmm… Yet the absentees should reflect the normal vote even if the early votes are skewed… Why would the early votes be any more skewed than the Election Day votes? Maybe Democrats voted early… sure, but only 50,000 votes were cast, a small percentage.

Hmmm…

Funny how the tabulating computers could only change the numbers of election day totals, but could not change the absentee or the early votes (as they were tabulated differently). I think this is very close to what would be called “evidence”. Especially when Exit polls for early voting showed Kerry up very high and the election day exit polls showed Kerry above 50% also. Something ain’t right here, Doc…

Doesn't this basicly mean that

EXIT POLLS ON ELECTION DAY WERE EITHER WAY THE HECK OFF (BY 22 POINTS), IF IN ONE OF THE MOST DEMOCRATIC COUNTIES IN FLORIDA KERRY LOST BY 20 POINTS, OR THE ELECTION DAY VOTE WAS RIGGED.

THIS IS AS CLOSE TO REAL EVIDENCE I HAVE SEEN SO FAR... EXIT POLLS HAVE NEVER, EVER BEEN THAT WRONG… (exit polls showed Kerry winning the state, for that day, by 2 points, which would mean he should have won Palm Beach by more than 5 points ON THAT DAY)

EXIT POLLS WERE FOR THAT DAY ONLY, THINK ABOUT IT!

[alittlelark]

1. OMG!! They didn't think the data would be analyzed!

They made egregious errors in their fraud! My guess is they were only able to commit the fraud w/ evil minions in the precinct/county - Therefore they had to make RIDICULOUS changes.

You guys ROCK!!!
:yourock:

[henslee]

15. Maybe THIS is why Cheney has shortness of breath today.

[alittlelark]

26. Quite possible... I hope for more bouts

of 'Shortness of breath'.

[Rev_Karl]

71. That was my first thought too.

Maybe somebody told him: "they've caught us."

[donachiel]

78. *rofl* That was my very first thought when I saw that on MSNBC

this morning. They're dropping like flies in the administration. Cheyney taken to the hospital. Coincidence? Me don't think so.

[m berst]

31. DU is the wildcard they didn't reckon with

Just look at the amount of time and effort that it has taken for people here to track this down and analyze it, the opposition and cynical neglect from the media, and most amazingly, the hostility from other DU members and Democrats.

Yet the courageous few persevere against all odds and all opposition and in the teeth of ridicule and derision from their presumed comrades and compatriots. The one thing that tyrants can't fully comprehend and ultimately cannot overcome, is the indomitable spirit of the people, and their devotion to the cause of freedom.

All might be free if they valued freedom, and defended it as they ought.

"I Believe that no people ever yet groaned under the heavy yoke of slavery, but when they deserv'd it. This may be called a severe censure upon by far the greatest part of the nations in the world who are involv'd in the misery of servitude: But however they may be thought by some to deserve commiseration, the censure is just. The truth is, All might be free if they valued freedom, and defended it as they ought."

- Sam Adams

[Robert Oak]

75. Sure they did, think about their propaganda machine

if you can fake out the entire American people (- the 10% who just
are never going to buy in) on "weapons of mass destruction" in order
to generate a war based on some absurd neocon new world order agenda..

how hard is it to make all of this go away?

Look at free trade...gee the results of that theory are so evident..
we only have a record trade deficit threatening the US plus
a race to the bottom on jobs..

but does the mantra change against the facts? hell no.

This is small potatoes for their propaganda machine.

For every statistician that points out the anomalies I'll bet they'll
have one of the bought and paid for think tank whores spin the numbers to say the opposite.

[pointsoflight]

2. Yep, these kinds of analyses need to been done all over.

Absentee ballots that have a paper trail can serve as a nice comparison to see where there might've been irregularities with electronic voting...

[swati]

3. Re: Close to Evidenc

GReat numbers and very telling. Which county are you talking about? I'm sending this as I have been doing all the "numbers" evidence to a lot of the media, democratic leaders and the democratic lawyers working on the ground. I want to include the name of the county you are refering to.......Hurry please. Thanks.

[jsamuel]

5. Palm Beach County, Florida - edited

[idiosyncratic]

83. Welcome to DU

:hi:

[Ladybast]

4. And you know the drill

by now . . . Send it to Keith at

[e-mail]

[shelley806]

7. Keith is on vacation or temporarily restrained...eom

[anamandujano]

9. Has this been determined for sure now?

I read a good deal of the thread but not since yesterday where many felt it was a joke.

[TexasChick]

10. Maybe we should still send him the info anyway? I couldn't tell if he was

joking or not. Of course, I didn't see the show, but from what I can tell, none of the other DUers could decide if it was legit or not. I think we can be safe to send him this info anyway.

[anamandujano]

20. I sent him an email earlier

No Vacation------EVER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


No Vacation------EVER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No Vacation------EVER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No Vacation------EVER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No Vacation------EVER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No Vacation------EVER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No Vacation------EVER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No Vacation------EVER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


It's just that we need one real journalist on the
case.

Thanks in advance. Have a nice day.

[TexasChick]

22. You too, there, pardner!

;)

[shelley806]

12. I actually saw it last night and thought about posting about it, but no

one else seemed concerned. He did look surprised, and that was mentioned by several people in the thread about it earlier today. Honestly I don't know. Let's hope it was a joke. Peculiar timing though!

[jsamuel]

17. THAT'S WHY JEB TOLD ALL THE REPUBS TO VOTE ABSENTEE!!!

TO ATTEMPT TO SKEW THE ABSENTEE VOTES TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE ELECTION DAY TOTALS, AS TO AVOID QUESTIONING OF THE ELECTION DAY TOTAL!!!

[Old and In the Way]

23. Excellent point!

I'd expect that absentee and early would be skewed in Kerry's favor....we were more motivated to vote ASAP and paranoid enough to want a paper trail. But election day results are way too skewed in Bush's favor to be correct.

Secret ballots and paperless vote trails are a recipe for Democratic disaster.

Democrats ought to be canvassing selected precincts and getting signed affidavits to validate the actual totals.

[GregD]

24. Interesting arguement

You could have a point, and I think your figures look good as well. This could be a key discovery.

Has someone made sure Bev knows about it?

[drm604]

36. Ohmigod, so they probably tried to screw with Pennsylvania also.

They sent out absentee ballot applications repeatedly to registered Repubs in PA and phoned multiple times asking if they had applied then later asking if they had sent it in. I guess we produced such a Kerry landslide that they couldn't safely overturn it. Unfortunately I can't find any absentee data for PA.

[ROH]

77. I read on another thread that Keith is still updating his blog this week.

[BamaBecky]

80. eom?

please explain - thanks!

[idiosyncratic]

84. eom means "End of Message"

n/t means "No Text."

[fuzz_ball]

Maybe Jon Stewert...

...will cover this? Not that he's the "definitive" news source, but he is funny :)

---

Got your sticker? I got mine!

www.bluestatesrock.com

[shelley806]

6. Have you seen the study about NC's absentee votes? I think it's still

on the first page. I really believe that absentee votes are the smoking gun in election 2004.

***DOES ANYONE KNOW HOW I CAN OBTAIN THE ABSENTEE VOTE RESULTS STATE BY STATE***?!?

[shraby]

13. I've seen them listed at the state's site.

with the stats. Some have them and some don't.

[shelley806]

47. Thank you Shraby...was dreaming of a nice, easy list somewhere. n/t

[TexasChick]

8. I hope the NH recount goes well, so we can move on to Florida and Ohio

so we can expose these treasonous bastards! Man, where is the America I used to know and love?

[txindy]

40. America is still there, don't worry

We just need to skim the scummy film off the top. ;)

[TexasChick]

46. Gotcha, txindy! Flew off the top, I guess! My bad! n/t

[Old and In the Way]

11. You might want to add Election Day Bush %

I know it's 60% based on the Kerry delta, but it looks odd not putting that in....it will add to your presentation.

Just how is early voting different from election day? Early being prior to election day? Is there a paper trail of these results vs. election day?

[jsamuel]

14. Early voting is the 2 weeks or 1 week prior to Election Day where people..

can vote officially.

[camby]

16. Do you realize the statistical improbability of the outcome?

Early voting + absentee = 25% of the total. That is a HUGE statistical sample. Add the exit polls taken that very day, and something is dreadfully wrong.

[shelley806]

52. Is this for Florida? In NC, it was 30%, and you're exactly right; it's

like an internal control (like exit polls are SUPPOSED to be!)

That's why we need to look at all of the absentee votes, compare to the final votes and the exit polls, and then look at the differences in states/counties with and without paper trails.

If the final votes were tampered with, we would expect to see the absentee votes (or early votes) similar to the exit polls in states without paper trails.

[camby]

81. Ed Gillespie now wants to ABOLISH exit polls

Becuz they're so wrong, you see????

[nolabels]

18. The whole thing

During the campaign Bush could barely fill a small high school auditorium without plenty of work by handlers. Kerry would fill places to spill-over spontaneously. To why everybody came can't be sure. Getting a clue GOP convention in New York, the masses, the excitement of the purpose was all there was. Half a million people or more and nary any Kerry campaign props.

Somewhere somebody is missing a very large group of people on purpose. It has got to the point where we erecting our own news media and ignoring the corporate version to the point of making it irrelevant. We always have more questions than they have answers as long as the lies continue

Look around, its not always what is said, but what is done.

[jhgatiss]

19. This mirrors the evidence for NC....

that someone else posted earlier. It just defies logic to me that absentee votes would agree better with exit polls than election day voting. Are there any other states that have data like this posted? I think this is a very valuable analysis to perform wherever we can.

[anamandujano]

21. YES!!!!! eom

.

[kerry2win]

25. 80,000 less for *** 80,000 more Kerry 160,000 swing

just ballpark it would look like Kerry could gain half or so of what he needs from this county alone to win florida

[SmallFatCat]

30. about 80,000 off the difference?

I think it is only half what you said, as to reduce a 20% defecit you only need to gain 10%. Still, 80,000 is not peanuts.

[kerry2win]

33. example

if you got 400,000 total votes 60-40 for bush its 240,000 bush to 160,000 kerry Kerry is done by 80,000 if you then have Kerry at 60-40 its 240,000 Kerry to 160,000 for bush Kerry is now up by 80,000 that should be a 160,000 swing I could be wrong I had a beer or two

[morillon]

27. I think your election day percentages are flipped.

I downloaded the spreadsheet, and on election day, it's 40% Bush, 60% Kerry. I'd love to see a smoking gun, too, but I don't think things add up the way the redefeatbush.com site says they do. The other percentages (for absentee and early) are correct.

[jsamuel]

29. Yes, something isn't right with my source...

Unless something is screwy

Yes, the numbers must be wrong. If you add them together they are nonsense.

Dang it!

[morillon]

35. Here are the numbers, based on the spreadsheet.

           Bush       %       Kerry       %        Total
Nov. 2    160,874   40.11%   240,210   59.89%    401,084
Absentee   37,800   41.73%    52,792   58.27%     90,592
Early(?)   13,904   28.11%    35,551   71.89%     49,455
Total     212,578   39.28%   328,553   60.72%    541,131

[jsamuel]

37. You are right, the source had it wrong.

[deeplydisturbed]

28. just curious

Hello to all, I am new to the member forum but have been in such a funk over the election I needed to hear opinions like mine. Its good to hear of all the potentially positive news coming out of Ohio and Florida! One thing that I am curious about, however, is whether or not the recount would give Kerry a victory? I know that Democracy in of itself is important and truly feel that this election was stolen (again), but will it make a difference? Are people too apathetic to do anything about it?
I hate to sound so negative but there hasn't been much cheerful news lately so I'm afraid this is just another "silver lining" that won't really do any short term good.

Anyway, I am glad to finally be a member and welcome any and all discussion. I am a graduate student in Political Science but can never get enough political discussion.

[m berst]

32. welcome deeplydisturbed

If this doesn't make any difference, I am afraid that nothing will short of a lot of physical pain and suffering. Once elections are stolen, all bets are off, and people are in denial if they think there is any way to escape a confrontation with tyranny now, one way or another.

[deeplydisturbed]

44. thanks

I would definitely agree that elections are important, but what good did that do us last time? If the election was stolen, and so far I think we all agree they were, then where are we? Are we better off then we were in 2000? Why isn't this getting more play in the media? Is the media that conservative? I didn't think so before but am slowly changing my mind.
Anyway, thanks for the welcome and I look forward to talking to others in the future.

[m berst]

55. I am going to write more about this

I think I might start a new thread on this subject. The choices that people think they have are false, I believe.

Should we fail to confront and stop these people over the stolen election, things won't just revert back to normal, or even to anything even remotely tolerable or peaceful.

The stolen election is but the first of a series of steps that are coming, and is the easiest one to confront. Legislation is lined up and ready to go to prevent judges from making rulings that disagree with Biblical principles or to overule acts of Congress on Constitutional principles, to end what is left of civil liberties, to further make all government services faith-based, to outlaw dissent, to make mental health screening mandatory, and on and on and on.

There is no "2006" to work towards. If all of the effort and money, all of the man hours, all of the massive turnout - if all of this failed to unseat these people in an open election, why would anyone persist in thinking that the threat will not continue to escalate and get worse and worse.

Confront them now and stop them, or prepare for much, much worse. All of their plans are out in the open. Everything is in place and ready to go. There will be no easier or more effective time to confront them than right now on this issue.

One this election is certified, expect a massive crackdown and an aggressive re-making of American government and society.

This crisis is not going to go away. We had our chance to vote them out. Those days are over.

[deeplydisturbed]

59. are you talking about fascism?

I believe that what you are speaking of is fascism at its worst. I hope you are wrong, but the evidence is out there for people to examine. I would agree that the rigging of elections is the first step but hope that we as Americans are smart enough to avoid it. Please keep me advised of your post. I would like to contact you personally but do not have enough posts. Please keep up the good work.

[m berst]

63. contact me at my forum

You can contact me by pm on my forum if you like -

http://www.thegeneralconversation.com/board/

mberst is my username there and there is instant sign up.

Mike

[m berst]

64. check this out disturbed if you get a chance

A great article by Sam Smith-

Getting Through the Bad Times
http://prorev.com/badtimes.htm

<snip>

To view our times as decadent and dangerous, to mistrust the government, to imagine that those in power are not concerned with our best interests is not paranoid but perceptive; to be depressed, angry or confused about such things is not delusional but a sign of consciousness. Yet our culture suggests otherwise.

We are overpowered and afraid. We find ourselves condoning things simply because not to do so means we would then have to -- at unknown risk -- truly challenge them.

Yet, in a perverse way, our predicament makes life simpler. We have clearly lost what we have lost. We can give up our futile efforts to preserve the illusion and turn our energies instead to the construction of a new time.

It is this willingness to walk away from the seductive power of the present that first divides the mere reformer from the rebel -- the courage to emigrate from one's own ways in order to meet the future not as an entitlement but as a frontier.

How one does this can vary markedly, but one of the bad habits we have acquired from the bullies who now run the place is undue reliance on traditional political, legal and rhetorical tools. Politically active Americans have been taught that even at the risk of losing our planet and our democracy, we must go about it all in a rational manner, never raising our voice, never doing the unlikely or trying the improbable, let alone screaming for help.

<snip>

[Karenca]

70. Yes Not Only is the conservative media conservative,

so is the liberal media conservative.
That's why we have to depend on ourelves and each other to get the real news out.

[nolabels]

38. 2000 might have got us with our pants down

Many kinda probably thought as much but never thought they would see it.

No need to arm-chair quarterback just yet, they are still counting (like last time) If you would have spent the last 2,3 or 4 years here you would know exactly what was going on. An answer will come out of this place regardless of what happens. I have never seen this place short circuit for more than few hours at a time. Good news is all in the way you look at (99% of the time anyway)

There are all kinds here, much too many to get bored with any group think.

Welcome to DU deeplydisturbed, an indescribable place to be sure

[jsamuel]

34. THESE NUMBERS ARE WRONG!!!

I added them together and according to the Palm Beach site, Kerry won the overall total 60% to 40%.

In order for that to be true, Kerry had to get 60% of the ELECTION DAY and Bush had to get 40% of the ELECTION DAY totals in that county.

Therefore, everything I just said does not apply.

However, it is interresting that the early vote is still so different from the election day vote.

[floridadem30]

39. have you looked at jefferson and dixie county yet?

[jsamuel]

42. No, I don't have the data for them, other than who they voted for

[floridadem30]

49. well lets try to do a comparison chart together.

Don't you find it a little odd that early voting in hardee countee was below 30% that means a high % of our registered democrats stayed home on election day. I would like to try and compare the counties that kerry won because I think bush picked up a lot of extra votes in these counties.

[BREMPRO]

41. Points out how easy it is to jump to conclusions. need to be careful

I looked at the actual election results, 60%Kerry 40% Bush as would be expected, not the other way around, . This is how this stuff gets out of hand and we all get called conspiracy theorists. always check your source.

[jsamuel]

43. Yeah, bad source...

sorry, i wish I could take it down...

[floridadem30]

45. Well wait a minute a lot of counties are showing wins for kerry

but the point is the huge amounts of democrat losses compared to expected turnout. There seems to be a pattern especially with diebold and op-scan. I am still checking though.

[m berst]

48. I don't know about that

Anyone contradicting or opposing this adminstratioin in any way on anything is going to be called a conspiracy theorist.

"Always check your source" is good advice as is "always brush your teeth after eating" and "don't cross the road without looking both ways."

Nothing is getting out of hand... well, except perhaps the arrogant and suppressive attitude and actions of this adminstration, the insertion of theocracy into our government, the trend towards one-party rule and totalitarianism, the federal budget, the state of decline of the US economy and the loss of jobs, the fate of the poor and minority people in in this country, and the war in Iraq.

Or do you think I am running the risk of having "us" called conspiracy theorists by mentioning those things?

[floridadem30]

50. more analysis needs to be done .

[floridadem30]

51. sorry about my last post thought it was aimed my way

[m berst]

56. oh, that's ok

You and I could argue anyway just for fun. :-)

[floridadem30]

57. sure why not I love a good debate

[m berst]

61. ok

I say that the University of Michigan football team would crush FSU if they played them this year, even if the game were played in Tallahassee. :-)

I used to visit Destin Beach every year back in the old days. Performed in St. Mary's (?) I think it was. It was on the tour route between Jacksonville and Pascagoula.

[floridadem30]

62. I'm a gator fan and live in swfl are

[m berst]

65. darn

Well we will just have to get along, then. :-)

[pointsoflight]

53. That's the benefit of a board like this.

To constructively check each other. Heck, the media wants to take claim for the dixiecrat theory, but it's actually other dems right here that came up with that view first.

[m berst]

58. absolutely

When I want to verify something, I watch to see if it is posted here. If it is false, DU people will catch it faster than anyone. That is what makes it so funny to hear DU described as "conspiracy theorists" or a "hate board." DU is truth central. Any holes or flaws in anything gets caught here in a big hurry.

If a piece of information survives 24-48 hours at DU without being disproven, it is gold-plated solid and reliable. I don't think there is anywhere else or any other group on the planet that you can say that about.

[pointsoflight]

66. I liked an earlier thread on this...

The author pointed out that the mainstream media dismisses and even belittles info coming from places like DU, yet the reality is that info probably gets much more scrutiny here than the crap they often put out.

How quickly they forget that WE exposed the BBV problems way before they did and WE debunked the Bush adminstration's claims about WMD in Iraq way before they did....

[floridadem30]

54. Here are some numbers for palm beach county to use for comparison

registered voters 729,575/ 547,340 turn-out/ no provisional ballots and this count includes absentee votes. this is from florida department of state. Apparently I have just read on du that there are now provisional ballots and there wasn't on election night.

[floridadem30]

60. more info for palm beach county, fl in case anybody wants it

DEM 45.1% REGISTERED VS REP 32.0 E-TOUCH VOTING AND SEQUOIA MACHINE 275,030 DEM VOTED 174,233 REP VOTED. THIS IS FROM FL DEPT OF STATE NOT PALM BEACH COUNTY DIRECTLY.

[Chili]

67. Theresa LaPore...

I might've missed someone else mentioning her, but don't forget, in analyzing any data about Palm Beach County... that she still runs that election.

Ugh.

[liberal al zib]

68. Per Atlas of US elections:

Palm Beach county Florida: Bush 39% (211,894 votes), Kerry 60.4% (327,698 votes).
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/frametextj.html
Next time please get your fact straight before you post.

[m berst]

69. we are trying

"Next time please get your fact straight before you post."

We are still trying to get the hang of these internets.

This is an interactive community. We test and compare facts and theories here in a cooperative environment of mutual respect. Since the Enlightenment, that is how people in Western Civilization have been discovering facts and deciding which are true, and how they have been organizing communities. Until recently, it worked out pretty well.

[NVMojo]

72. Just like in Peanuts ...there's always a bossy Lucy

:silly:

[Carl Brennan]

73. ohhhh, hello there Psy-ops person. Nice job. but not good enough. nt

[jsamuel]

74. JUST DELETE THE TREAD!!!

It's nice to know that if someone makes one mistake all the freeper callers come out of the woodworks. Come on guys, one mistake. I haven't done anything else wrong in my whole past and I have many people who can vouch for me.

So please stop it.

Look at me:
http://forum.johnkerry.com/index.php?showuser=33527

[BREMPRO]

76. no need to take it personally...

this is democracy...not always pretty...good that you brought up the issue,even thought the source was wrong- as people have pointed out, we find the truth through the rigourous fact checking on DU community. just shows how many voices are stronger than one. can't get away with anything here!

[nolabels]

79. Threads like this even serve a purpose to be sure

:Kick:

Stupid is just a road you travel to figure out your mistakes, learning which lessons to remember is the trick.

[ROH]

82. Maybe you could ask the admins to lock the thread?