URGENT: Assistance Needed For Super Tuesday Download

[L. Coyote]

From: VerifiedVote2004
Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2008 10:23:37 EST.......
Subject: URGENT: Assistance Needed For Super Tuesday Download
To All Election Analysts and Monitors--

This is a call for assistance downloading data from the web this coming Tuesday. As many of you may know, I have made it my business to download exit poll (EP) and tabulation data on election night since 2002, frequently with dramatic effect. We are now facing a new situation in which it appears unlikely that unadjusted (i.e., authentic) EP data will be publicly released. Or, to put it another way, they're on to us and want to make damned sure that we don't see anything controversial.

Nevertheless, for several reasons that are better not made public, it will be very important to download as much data as we can on Tuesday as efficiently as possible. There are 22 states involved, most of which have primaries (a few have caucuses or a convention), and we each need to take primary responsibility for real-time recording and preserving of the data for a single state. If there are enough of us to get all the states that would be great, but otherwise we'll have to make sure we at least capture the 'biggies' in rank order.

This will require some basic organization, in terms of assignment of tasks and a suggested protocol--so that those who are new to this won't be groping around in real time either looking for the right data page (the websites manage to bury it rather well) or figuring out how to capture it. A little redundancy won't hurt, but we don't want everyone winding up downloading the same state while others are ignored.

So the first thing I need is a reply stating that you will be available on Tuesday evening to download a state (or two) and that you have the basic capacity on your computer to do so reasonably rapidly (high-speed connection, pdf-maker and/or web-page-saver). Please respond today so that we can see how many downloaders we will have at work. Then I can make state assignments. It will be up to you to ascertain your state's poll closing time so that you'll know when to be ready at your computer.

The following protocol and recommendations will apply to all.
1. Please be familiar in advance with the website (CNN, MSNBC, etc.) and its levels/links, so that you can find the appropriate data without delay. I recommend practicing a few dry-run downloads using EP and tabulated data from concluded primaries (NH, SC, FL, etc.) which will be posted in the same place.
2. Be at your computer about 15-20 minutes before poll closing to check out the appropriate web pages and see if there are any new wrinkles in the way they are formatting/presenting data.
3. Be ready to download any EP data as soon as the polls close (we're expecting the NEP to withhold EP data for however long it takes them to substantially adjust it--in SC it was about 45 minutes--but you never know; so be prepared just in case, and also please capture the EP page even if it does not have any data on it yet other than perhaps the # of respondents). Note the time of all downloads (will explain further below).
4. Once EP data does appear for your state, download it at regular intervals (15 minutes should suffice) or any time you notice a change, for at least 3 hours. You can continue observing and downloading for longer if it appears that the EP results have not yet been brought into conformity with the tabulated results.
5. Be sure to download the ENTIRE exit poll page, including all of the crosstabs. This is of critical importance.
6. Also download the tabulated results as they come in, using your judgment about what is 'interesting' (sudden shifts, backwards counting, individual suspect counties, etc.).
7. The websites are not time-stamping their pages any more, so it is critical that in naming the file you download you include a precise reference to the time. Using local time is fine. Your file name might look like: CA-EP-D-21.17 (this would indicate California Exit Poll Democratic at 9:17 p.m.; the date is not necessary), or CA-Tab-R-22.07 (for the tabulated results on the CA GOP primary at 10:22 p.m.). Following this standard nomenclature for your files will be very helpful when we assemble the data from many states to try to get the big picture.
8. You can choose which website to work from (I prefer CNN but MSNBC is not bad) but be ready to switch websites (and know where they bury the gold on each one) in case one comes up dry while the other does not. There is so much we don't know about how decisions about what data to release at what time are made: we should not rule out the possibility of a given network acting somewhat independently.
9. Here are some URLs for the CNN website that should help you navigate the maze and find the EP data page without delay on Tuesday:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#val=FLDEM (polls)

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#NH (returns)

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHDEM (polls)

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/florida.html (state main page)

Notice that they changed the nomenclature from the NH polls to the FL polls, so it will probably change again. You can follow their links, but don't get discouraged if they don't take you where you're trying to go--just keep trying (go back to your state's main page or back to Election Central and try a different route).
10. As far as the mechanics of downloading, a lot will depend on how your computer(s) is configured. If you have Acrobat Professional and can make good .pdfs, that's a good way to go (since they are most easily shared), but be sure to look at your .pdf downloads and make sure they are 'coming out right'. My experience was that, unlike in past years, my .pdfs were coming out truncated or even blank--which may be a problem with my Acrobat or NEP's way of making our lives even more difficult. In any case, make sure that you're not merrily downloading garbage or nothing. If the .pdf is not getting you good screenshots, try saving as webpage or simply select and copy all and paste into an email sent to yourself. In fact, it would not be a bad idea to do that as backup periodically (be sure to name the email subject line as you would the saved file according to the nomenclature recommended above).
11. If you encounter problems you can't solve in trying your dry runs or on Tuesday, email me. I'll also try to recruit one or two other trouble-shooters.
12. For those of you who are already resigned to the fact that EPs are now adjusted and bogus, please take heart: this is still a very important project. For one thing, we need to know precisely the time that EPs are first posted in your state and we need the first posting. It will help us in determining how much adjusting is being done and in what timeframe (we also will have some sourced, though not published, info on the unadjusted data for comparison). And there is still a lot we can do analytically with the adjusted EPs (without going into detail here). So please obtain as much as you can and don't throw in the towel.

Okay, the first step is to let me know if you can do (and what time zone you're in). Then we can parcel out the states and prepare for Tuesday.

Many thanks and best wishes--Jonathan Simon (EDA)
http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/

[Wilms]

1. .

:popcorn:

[Peace Patriot]

2. Contact for Jonathan, or the EP project?

Is this it?
http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/election_data_analysis
It requires registration for this EDA Working Group.

Another EDA site--"Election Day Rapid Response" where it says:
Send inquiries and offers of assistance to [e-mail] and check the "Take Action" and "Projects" links and the EDRR Working Group forum on this website for forthcoming directions and updates.
http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/election_day_rapid_response

[L. Coyote]

3. start here

http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/jonathan_simon