Can a poll whiz check these CA numbers?

[ebayfool]

I'm not sure how to read this - should we go by the poll
numbers posted on the county website or the numbers posted on
the sec/state county numbers. They don't match up - county
site (Nov 10) has higher numbers than the state (Nov 13) says
it has. Why would the counts drop instead of going higher
(absentee or provisional?) after being updated to state site?
Also looks like repubs had close to 93% turnount while Dems
only had @ 40% (can't see it). These are for Kern County CA -
a very Bush county, but I didn't think it was THAT screwed up!
Just trying to be snoopy 50-year-old woman.

state website registration info as of deadline to register
Nov.18
http://ss.ca.gov/elections/ror/county_10_18_04.xls

                #                                   #         

            reg voters  percent     Eligible  Registered
                                
Republican   143620     48.67%       422433   295106          
       

Democrat     105639    35.80%       
 
Total        249259    84.47%      

--------------------------------
 
from kern county
website-http://elections.co.kern.ca.us/elections/results/Nov04/default.htm

Election Results as of 11/10/2004 4:40:22 PM 
                    VOTE COUNT  PERCENTAGE 
GEORGE W. BUSH        133224     66.68% 
JOHN F. KERRY          64183     32.13% 
MICHAEL BADNARIK         601      0.30% 
MICHAEL A. PEROUTKA      471      0.24% 
LEONARD PELTIER          363      0.18% 
DAVID COBB               284      0.14% 
                      --------   -------
                       199126     99.67

-----------------------------------------------

from state
website-http://vote2004.ss.ca.gov/Returns/pres/15.htm
As of Nov 13, 2004 at 11:21 pm 

George W. Bush         129268      66.9%
John F. Kerry           62550      32.4%   
Michael Badnarik          584       0.3%   
Michael A.Peroutka        452       0.2%
Leonard Peltier           354       0.1%
David Cobb                273       0.1% 
                      --------    -------
                       193481      100.0%



County  Total      Precincts   %    Reg'd   Ballots   
Name   Precincts    Rpt'g   Rpt'g  Voters   Cast    

Kern      658        658      100   295,106 197,003        
 
 
First Report  Latest Report    %        Report Type*
  Date-Time     Date-Time    Turnout     (U=update)
     2              9
   8:17pm        4:59pm       66.7           U

[BeFree]

1. It appears

The state site has not yet posted the updated numbers from the county. By now the county would have added all absentee and provisional votes, therefore the county #s are a bit higher.

I know there is an assumption in there, best keep looking at the data frequently and note any changes.

[ebayfool]

2. The numbers that bug me the most ...

# registered voters     # VOTE COUNT
Repub - 143620 48.67%   133224 66.68%
Dem   - 105639 35.80%    64183 32.13%

[ahimsa]

3. It bugs me that Democrats apparently voted for *

..but other than that, those numbers don't look particularly suspicious, do they?

It's important not to think those numbers mean that only 35.8% of Democrats turned out to vote - it's more likely that 60% of them turned out and unfortunately half of their votes went to Bush.

[idiosyncratic]

4. I will never believe that number of DEM votes really were for *

I know people here who are registered Republicans who voted for Kerry.

I can't imagine that number of people who are registered Democrats voting for *.

It just couldn't have happened.

We are looking at numbers manipulation there . . . :think:


Edit for typos . . . Duh!