UPDATED: How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes

[L. Coyote]

"Mar. 27, 2008. Analyses and research continues."

How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes
http://jqjacobs.net/politics/ohio.html


Where Kerry cross-votes count for a specific third-party candidate,
Badnarik votes increase five-fold and Peroutka votes jump over nine-fold.

Check out the results from the "Probability Outcome Subsets" section:

"Sorting precincts by cross-vote outcome produced direct evidence of cross-voting and vote-switching. Figure 1 distinguishes precincts where Kerry cross-votes either do or cannot count for Badnarik or Peroutka and the respective five-fold and near ten-fold increases in their votes due to Kerry cross-votes. ...."

.... more ....

"... over one-half million Cuyahoga County voters, nearly one-tenth of the Ohio votes, are sorted by probability of Kerry-Bush vote-switching (Excel file). A 10 percent difference in the Kerry margin arises, and those precincts with some probability of Kerry-Bush vote-switching (K-B > 0) have a 10% lower Kerry margin than those with zero probability. "What portion of this difference is due to vote-switching?" is obviously a necessary analysis. ... The margin difference of 27,418 votes is significant, 5.22% of these voters. By comparison, the official Ohio results give Bush a 2.1% victory."

NEW spreadsheets too:

http://jqjacobs.net/politics/xls/cuyahoga_4_precincts_subsets.xls
http://jqjacobs.net/politics/xls/cuyahoga_3_precincts_subsets.xls


"This result infers about three percent of Kerry votes were switched to Bush. Random cross-voting does NOT explain the disparity revealed by comparison of distinct cross-vote probability subsets. Fraudulent Kerry-Bush vote-switching cannot be ruled out."

[Bill Bored]

1. One question:

I feel pretty confident that vote switching in Dem strongholds would favor the other guys, even if it occurred randomly. And there are other such places in Ohio besides Cuyahoga County. So there could be a lot more vote switching that favored Bush, assuming they had the same ridiculous ballot order rotations, punch cards with no precinct IDs, etc. in the other counties.

But could the opposite have happened in the Bush strongholds? If not, what could have prevented it?

[L. Coyote]

2. These are the sorts of questions that should be addressed given the known evidence.

Certainly, the highly suspicious returns for ballot measures and judges point to cross-voting in high amounts.

The article presents the methodology to answer your question.
I recommend giving it a try in another area of high Kerry support first.
If you were going to steal Kerry votes, where would that be?
Where there are Kerry votes to steal, obviously!

[Bill Bored]

4. I wish half the effort spent on the exit polls had been spent on this stuff instead. nt

[L. Coyote]

5. Not to mention the recount in the Fall of 2004. Had this been the focus

all HELL would have broken open. WELL, it still can, if someone is willing to do the real work.

Maybe obfuscation is why we had the recount in the first place!!

Switched votes recount the same every time, and the recount activist WERE TOLD so.

[Bill Bored]

7. "Switched votes recount the same every time, and the recount activist WERE TOLD so."

Ah, you mean because there were no precinct IDs on the cards, right?

I wonder how many people actually still don't know this after all these years?

[L. Coyote]

3. visibility kick

[flashl]

6. Focusing on Cuyahoga County alone will be sufficient to find fraud to overturn 2004 election. nt

[L. Coyote]

8. It is FOUND, discussed, proven statistically, etc. WHAT has happened? ZIP, NADA...

NOTHING I see, except cover-ups, obfuscation, false flags, fake organizations, fake activists, distractions, lies, denial ......

I think a thorough study is needed, for all of Ohio and for every election that used punch cards.

If Ohioans realize they have not lived in a democracy for a long time, then MAYBE....

Ask Marc Dann. What has he done? Ask Jennifer Brunner. Who is even lifting one little finger?

[Bill Bored]

9. Well, there was a lawsuit in Ohio that claimed these problems have existed for at least 30 yrs.

League of Women Voters, Cliff Arnebeck, all those folks.

What ever happened with that one? Sorry I don't know the name of it.

And Brunner did order the punch cards to be preserved, but some counties trashed them anyway.

[L. Coyote]

10. Oddly overstated loss of evidence. Did GORE win Ohio in 2000?

I am providing evidence to both sides of the litigation in the King Lincoln Bronzeville Neighborhood Association lawsuit, one based on civil rights violations.

I must fault the plaintiffs side of this contention for overstating the ballot losses.
http://www.thealliancefordemocracy.org/html/eng/2473-AA.shtml

They give the VERY FALSE impression that we cannot move forward with continuing investigations. Actually "In 56 of Ohio's 88 counties" there was some problem with compliance, but there is no problem with sufficient "evidence which would have revealed whether the election was stolen." Why do they tweek the truth into falsehoods?

I do not understand why some people do not seek the truth, excepting, of course, that they can make a lot of money from this. I would prefer a focus on the truth and a real investigation. They do not act on new evidence they are provided with it, just like people did not in the Fall of 2004 when they were promoting the worthless recount!! There may still be a lot of covert operations in play covering up the Ohio 2004 theft, and activists may be under that influence without realizing it. At any rate, their blatant falsehoods remain in print.

The same people who stymied investigations that could have prevented Bush's inauguration are still in position.

Punch card voting was introduced in Ohio when Dems dominated OH politics, and not that long ago (not 30 years). Before long, the state had turned Republican. This is the history that needs investigation. Was Ohio a "fixed state" for over a decade? How many elections were altered? How was the Presidency affected?

Did Al Gore win Ohio in 2000? This is the one that needs attention FIRST!

2000 OFFICIAL PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS
General Election Date: 11/7/00 - http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/2000presgeresults.htm
Bush 2,351,209
Gore 2,186,190
-------------
margin 125,019
votes 4,705,457

Given how easy it is to find 6% vote-switching in Cuyahoga 2004, I suspect Gore won Ohio in 2000.

[L. Coyote]

11. Word version now updated too. Saves ink!

http://jqjacobs.net/politics/ohio.doc