6/20 Election Model - Obama Jumps to 352EV, Leads Newsweek 51-36 - x

[tiptoe]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6397150&mesg_id=6397150

 

The 2004 Election Model Final 18 National Pre-Election Polls (9RV, 9LV)
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

   
 
Sample
Poll
 
Final Poll
 
75 % UVA Projected
 
5-Poll Moving Average
 
5-poll Moving Average, 2-party
   Election Model
   18 National Polls
    
    Harris
    Zogby
    Marist
    Econ
    TIPP
 
    CBS
    FOX
    Dem Cor
    Gallup
    NBC
 
    ABC
    ARG
    Pew
    Nwk
    ICR
 
    LAT
    Time
    AP
Date
Average
        
2-Nov
2-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov
      
1-Nov
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
      
31-Oct
30-Oct
30-Oct
29-Oct
26-Oct
      
24-Oct
21-Oct
20-Oct
Size
 1720 
      
5508
1200
1166
2903
1284
      
1125
1400
1018
1866
1014
      
3511
1258
2408
1005
817
      
1698
803
976
Type
     
     
LV
LV
LV
RV
LV
 
RV
RV
LV
RV
LV
 
RV
LV
RV
RV
RV
 
RV
LV
LV
Kerry
 47.3 %
      
50
47
49
49
44
 
46
48
48
48
47
 
48
49
46
45
44
 
48
46
49
Bush
 46.9 %
      
47
48
48
45
45
 
47
45
47
46
48
 
47
48
45
48
46
 
47
51
46
 
Kerry
 50.90 %
      
51.5
50.0
50.5
52.8
51.5

50.5
52.5
51.0
51.8
50.0

51.0
50.5
52.0
49.5
50.8

51.0
47.5
52.0
Bush
 48.10 %
      
47.5
49.0
48.5
46.3
47.5

48.5
46.5
48.0
47.3
49.0

48.0
48.5
47.0
49.5
48.3

48.0
51.5
47.0
 
Kerry
 51.3 %
      
51.3
51.1
51.6
51.7
51.5

51.2
51.3
50.9
51.1
50.6

50.8
50.8
50.2
50.2
na
 
na
na
na
Bush
 47.8 %
      
47.8
48.0
47.5
47.4
47.6
 
47.9
47.8
48.2
48.0
48.4
 
48.3
48.3
48.9
48.9
na
 
na
na
na
 
Kerry
 51.8 % 
       
51.8
51.6
52.1
52.2
52.0

51.7
51.8
51.4
51.6
51.1

51.3
51.3
50.7
50.7
na
 
na
na
na
Bush
 48.2 % 
    
48.2
48.4
47.9
47.8
48.0
 
48.3
48.2
48.6
48.4
48.9
 
48.7
48.7
49.3
49.3
na
 
na
na
na
Diff
 3.6 % 
    
3.6
3.2
4.2
4.4
4.0

3.4
3.6
2.8
3.2
2.2

2.6
2.6
1.4
1.4
na
 
na
na
na