NY04 VOTESCAM MATH: KERRY TRUE VOTE=4.7m(64%) =4.3m(58.5%)RECORDED+ .4m(5.5%)URBAN LEGEND LEVER(age)

[tiptoe]

TRUTH IS ALL MATH: faulty Levers and/or corrupt human counters cut Kerry's NY "margin" by 750,000 votes!
TruthIsAll      http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004NewYorkLeverExitPollDiscepancies.htm

Even highly regarded experts get it wrong once in a while. Richard Hayes Phillips, who did a comprehensive analysis which proved that Ohio 2004 was stolen, was no exception when he wrote that the NY exit polls matched the recorded vote. RHP made the same mistake that countless others make: he was referring to the Final Exit Poll — which is always forced to match the recorded vote. He should have checked the preliminary exit polls and read the Edison-Mitofsky Jan 2005 report (see below).

In 2000, Gore won the NY recorded vote by 60–35–5%. In 2004, Kerry won by 58.5–40.2%. But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 64–35%, which was identical to the Best Geo and Composite exit poll timeline results (see below). Based on the exit polls, Kerry’s NY margin should have been over 2.1 million votes, but he won the recorded vote by only 1.35 million.

Kerry’s margin was reduced by 750,000 votes, which is 25% of Bush’s 3.0m recorded vote “mandate”. How could Kerry win by just an 18% margin, when Gore won by 25%? Where did Bush get his NY votes? It’s an Urban Legend. Read on.

Everyone knew Kerry was going to win NY easily — especially Karl Rove. Bushco knew that winning the popular recorded vote was critical in order to make their “mandate” appear legitimate. They could not have a repeat of 2000, when Gore won the national recorded vote by 540,000 and NY by 1.7 million votes. In 2004, all indications were that Kerry would do even better than Gore. A massive Democratic registration and GOTV effort would bring at least 500,000 new voters. Bush was very unpopular in NY; his NY approval rating was much lower than his national 48%. So Bush had to find a way to keep Kerry’s margin down in order to get his popular vote “mandate”.

This analysis shows that Kerry did much better in NY than the Recorded Vote indicates. The question is not if votes were stolen from Kerry; the question is how it happened. Those who claim to “love my Levers” are mistaken to believe that they are foolproof. They cannot verify and prove that their votes were counted accurately. In fact, historical evidence indicates that Lever machine vote counts are highly vulnerable to rigging — and not just in NY. It’s not a HAVA or Lever vs. Optical-scan issue. The issue is whether NY will have a verifiable vote count.

Victoria Collier writes in Votescam: Many people still in power have yet to be held accountable for their role in aiding and abetting vote fraud. I'll give you two important examples. Famous Miami lawyer Ellis Rubin brought the original Votescam evidence to the Florida assistant State Attorney at the time, Janet Reno. The evidence included the shaved wheels of lever voting machines, forged canvass sheets, and pre-printed vote tally sheets. Reno refused to prosecute, claiming falsely that the statue of limitations had run out on the crime. Years later, Rubin would tell my father that behind closed doors Reno had stated that she could not prosecute. Why? Because she would bring down many of the most powerful people in the state.

The Edison-Mitofsky state exit poll timeline (see below) shows how the exit poll discrepancies declined as they were adjusted by E-M prior to the final exit poll which was matched to the vote. The pristine, unadjusted exit poll data was not released by E–M until Jan.2005. Their report shows that the unadjusted exit poll discrepancies were greater than those which were downloaded by Jonathan Simon from the Internet at 12:22am. In other words, the full extent of the apparent fraud was much greater than the original estimate — but this was not known until three months after the election. Yet even the Election Day adjusted exit polls raised many red flags.

Briefly, this is a summary of red flags which indicate that the NY 2004 election was rigged to inflate Bush’s mandate:
Kerry won the NY recorded vote by: 58.5–40.2% (4.314–2.963m). There were 7.391m total votes recorded.

1. NY exit polls (unadjusted and adjusted) showed Kerry to be a 64–35% winner.
   
2. In 2000, Al Gore won the recorded vote by 60–35% (4% to Nader).
   
3. Returning Nader voters went for Kerry by 3-1 over Bush.
   
4. In 2000, there were 552,000 late (absentee, provisional, etc.) ballots. Gore won 65.4%.
   
5. In 2004, there were 499,000 late votes. Kerry won 65.8%.
   
6. The National Exit Poll indicated that 10% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry, while only 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush.
   
7. Kerry won the majority (57–61%) of new voters.

Dan Rather's voting machine exposé was a clear example of how mechanical voting machines can be rigged. In Florida 2000, poor-quality paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of election fraud in heavily Democratic precincts. The report illustrated a method used to hack mechanical voting machines (punch card or lever).

Naysayers cherry-picked the final NY pre-election poll in an attempt to promote the myth that the pre-election poll was correct and the exit poll was way off. In essence, they are claiming that the final pre-election poll matched a fraud-free recorded vote. But they can’t provide evidence that ALL the votes were counted accurately in ALL the precincts. They failed to consider late absentee and provisional ballots which provide further evidence that the vote count was bogus.

There are fundamental flaws in their arguments.

1. They failed to consider the NY 2000 vote: Gore 60.2 – Bush 35.2 – Nader 3.6. Their argument implies that the 2004 recorded vote was fraud-free and that 100% of returning Nader 2000 voters defected to Bush – clearly an impossible scenario. In fact, according to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won Nader voters by 71–21% and 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry while just 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. Adjusting the NEP weights based on the NY 2000 recorded vote and assuming 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry won by 63.6–35.1%.
   
   
2. They ignored the theoretical margin of error. It’s well-known that exit polls are more accurate than pre-election polls. There was a 5.1% discrepancy between Kerry's NY pre-election (59%) and exit poll (64.1%). Since the MoE is 4% for a typical 600-sample pre-election state poll, there was a 95% probability that Kerry's True vote was in the 55–63% range. The NY exit poll 3.2% MoE (30% cluster effect) implies there was a 95% chance that Kerry's True vote was in the 60.8–67.2% range, which would fall within the MoE of both the NY pre-election and exit poll. On the other hand, the weighted average of 51 state pre-election polls (adjusted for undecided voters) matched the National Exit Poll to within 1%. Once again, it’s the Law of Large Numbers taking effect.
   
   
3. They failed to consider that Kerry’s vote share was 10% higher in NY than nationally. The Election Calculator, which accounts for voter mortality, turnout and uncounted votes, determined that Kerry won by 64.0–34.5%. The assumptions were as follows: Gore and Kerry won 75% of the uncounted votes (5% of total cast); Kerry won 94% of Gore voters, 12% of Bush voters, 61% of new (DNV2k) voters and 68% of returning Nader/other voters. A sensitivity analysis shows that if Kerry won 90–98% of returning Gore voters and 57–65% of DNV2k, his NY vote share ranged from 61.3 to 66.7%.
   
   
4. They implied there was zero fraud in claiming that the recorded vote was the true vote. An analysis of the effects of uncounted and switched votes indicates that Kerry won by 63–36%. If 2% of total votes cast were uncounted (75% to Kerry), then 7% of Kerry votes were switched to Bush. The uncounted vote assumption is lower than the 2.74% national average (NY uses lever voting machines).
   
   
5. They failed to consider late votes (absentee, provisional, etc). There were a total of 7.36 million votes recorded in NY of which 500,000 were late and not recorded until a few days after the election. Bush won 58.5% of the initial 6.86m votes; Kerry won 65.8% of the late 500,000 (very close to his 65% exit poll).

NY 2004

Kerry

Bush

 

Other

Total

4.314

2.963

 

.114

7.391

58.5%

40.2%

 

1.3%

100%

 

NY 2000

Gore

Bush

Nader

Other

Total

4.108

2.403

.244

0.67

6.822

60.2%

35.2%

3.6%

1.0%

100%

 

NY True Vote Calculation:

Assumptions:

95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004

1.22% annual voter mortality

No uncounted votes

 

Kerry vote shares reflect that his NY shares had to be higher than equivalent national (NEP) shares.

         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other   NEP
DNV               1.236    16.7%     61%     37%     2%   57-41%
Gore     95%      3.718    50.4%     94%      5%     1%   91- 8%
Bush     95%      2.172    29.4%     12%     88%     0%   10-90%
Nader    95%      0.250     3.4%     68%     13%    19%   64-17%

Total    6.140    7.376    100%     63.45%  35.07%  1.48%
                          7.376     4.680   2.587   0.109

 

Notes:

1. Kerry won three NY exit poll measures by an average 64.1%. His recorded share was 58.5%.
   
2. Mechanical voting machine precincts had the highest average WPE (10.6%). New York votes 99% by Lever.
   
3. According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry won 57% of new voters; 91% of Gore; 64% of Nader; 10% of Bush.
   
4. Kerry’s NY vote share was 10% higher than his national share. Therefore, his NY shares must have exceeded the national shares (note 3).
   
5. Kerry won 66% of the final 500k votes but only 58% of the initial 6.8m; Gore won 74% of the final 500k and 60% of the initial 6.3m.
   
6. Kerry won approximately 75% of the uncounted votes (included in the exit poll but not the official count).
   
7. Kerry had his highest NY shares in the four counties which had the highest rates of voting incidents.
   
8. Bush gained a total of 573k votes in NY (25.8%) from 2000; Kerry gained just 246k (6.6%); Nader lost 196k.
   
   
9. Kerry won returning Nader voters by a 47% margin over Bush; he won new voters by 16%. Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry at a 2% higher rate than Gore voters to Bush. If we conservatively assume that Kerry’s share of New and former NY Gore voters was just 1% higher than his National share, then Bush needed 100% of former Bush voters to match the official count! The net defection rate would have had to flip from Kerry (+2%) to Bush (+7%). So how did Bush improve his NY vote share by over 5%? Do you believe in magic?
   
   
10. This is the essence of the Urban Legend: Bush made big gains in heavily Democratic urban/suburban strongholds yet did not do well in small towns and rural areas, his own strongholds. Seven strongly Democratic NYC area counties comprised 50% of the total recorded vote; Kerry had 66% in the seven counties, but Bush gained 311k (41.3%) from 2000; Kerry improved by just 129k (5.4%) over Gore; Nader lost 89k. In other counties, Bush had 48% and gained 262k votes (7.6%) while Kerry gained 118k (3.4%).
    
    This NY County graph illustrates the Bush Urban Legend: the implausible in votes from 2000 to 2004 for the largest 15 NY counties.
    
    
11. Since Kerry won 64% (57k) and Bush 17% (15k) of returning Nader voters, Kerry would have a 72/27% margin in the seven counties assuming an equal defection of Bush and Gore voters. But according to the National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush voters defected and 8% of Gore voters defected. Assuming a net 2% defection to Kerry, he would have had a 73/26% margin in the seven counties. So how could the Bush vote share increase by 6.4% (26.5 to 32.9%) and the Kerry share decline by 3.6% (69.6 to 66.0%)? That’s a 10% increase in Bush margin!
    

-------------------------------------------------

NY Pre-election and Exit Polls
New York                   Kerry   Bush   Nader
Recorded vote              58.5%   40.2%   1.3%
Final pre-election poll    57       39     1
Projection                 59       40     1
 
Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Measures
WPE (11.4)                 64.1%   34.4%    1.5%
Best Estimate              65.1    33.8     1.1
Composite                  63.1    35.5     1.4

Average Voting Machine WPE for all Exit Poll Precincts
Mechanical (Lever) voting machine precincts had the highest mean Within Precinct Error (10.6%).
Paper ballot precincts had the smallest mean WPE (2.2%)
New York votes 99% by Lever.
                       WPE       WPE     Number
Polling Place         Mean    Median  Precincts
Paper Ballot           2.2       0.9         40
Mechanical Voting     10.6      10.3        118
Touch Screen           7.1       7.0        360
Punch Cards            6.6       7.3        158
Optical Scan           6.1       5.5        573

The Final 5 million votes
 
Final Recorded Vote
Bush              62,040,610       50.73%
Kerry             59,028,439       48.27%
Other              1,224,499        1.00%
Total            122,293,548        100%
 
Initial 117m votes
Bush              59,834,866       51.02%
Kerry             56,373,514       48.07%
Other              1,073,874        0.91%
Total            117,282,254        100%
 
Late 5m votes
Bush               2,205,744       44.02%
Kerry              2,654,925       52.98%
Other                150,625        3.00%
Total              5,011,294        100%
 
Recorded   Kerry    Votes
Final      48.27%   122.29m
Initial    48.07%   117.28m
Late       52.98%     5.01m

Kerry Initial, Late and Final Vote Share (2-party)
* indicates state had less than 2000 late votes
 
        Final   Initial    Late    Change     WPE      Exit
Wtd      48.8%   48.5%     54.3%     5.8%     5.8%    51.6%
Unwtd    48.4%   48.4%     52.0%     3.7%     6.0%    51.5%
 
Weighted
East     56.5%    56.2%    62.4%     6.2%     9.7%    61.3%
Midw     48.1%    48.1%    56.1%     8.1%     3.4%    49.8%
South    42.7%    42.6%    46.6%     4.0%     5.8%    45.6%
West     41.7%    41.7%    41.9%     0.2%     4.8%    44.1%
FarW     53.2%    53.3%    53.0%    -0.2%     6.4%    56.4%
 
        Final    Initial   Late    Change     WPE      Exit
East
CT       55.3%    55.3%    56.3%     1.0%    15.7%    63.3%
DC*      90.5%    90.5%    90.5%     0.0%     3.4%    92.2%
DE*      53.8%    53.8%    67.3%    13.4%    15.9%    61.9%
MA       62.7%    62.7%    71.5%     8.8%     5.8%    65.7%
MD       56.6%    56.2%    60.3%     4.1%     8.1%    60.7%
 
ME*      54.6%    54.5%    87.3%    33.0%     3.8%    56.5%
NH*      50.7%    50.7%    55.8%     5.2%    13.6%    57.6%
NJ       53.4%    53.1%    57.6%     4.5%     9.7%    58.3%
NY       59.3%    58.8%    65.8%     7.0%    11.4%    65.1%
PA       51.3%    51.1%    58.6%     7.5%     8.8%    55.7%
RI       60.6%    60.5%    62.6%     2.1%     4.7%    63.0%
VT*      60.3%    60.3%    48.7%   -11.6%    15.0%    68.0%
 
        Final    Initial   Late     Change    WPE     Exit
Midwest
IA       49.7%    49.5%    62.1%    12.6%     3.0%    51.2%
IL       55.2%    55.1%    70.3%    15.2%     4.4%    57.4%
IN       39.6%    39.5%    62.0%    22.6%     1.5%    40.3%
KS       37.1%    37.0%    42.7%     5.8%     1.7%    38.0%
OH       48.9%    48.7%    56.2%     7.4%    10.9%    54.4%
 
MI       51.7%    51.7%    58.4%     6.7%     6.3%    54.9%
MN       51.8%    51.8%    47.9%    -3.9%     9.3%    56.5%
MO       46.4%    46.3%    63.8%    17.5%     5.8%    49.3%
ND*      36.1%    36.1%    37.4%     1.3%    -5.2%    33.4%
NE       33.2%    33.0%    43.6%    10.6%     8.1%    37.3%
 
OK*      34.4%    34.4%    34.4%     0.0%    -1.9%    33.5%
SD       39.1%    39.1%    32.8%    -6.3%    -4.2%    37.0%
WI       50.2%    50.2%    36.3%   -13.9%     4.7%    52.6%
 
        Final    Initial   Late     Change    WPE     Exit
South
AL*      37.1%    37.1%    67.6%    30.6%    11.3%    42.8%
AR       45.1%    45.0%    48.2%     3.2%     0.5%    45.3%
FL       47.5%    47.5%    50.5%     3.0%     7.6%    51.3%
GA       41.6%    41.6%    46.2%     4.6%     2.2%    42.8%
LA       42.7%    42.6%    79.5%    36.9%     3.8%    44.6%
 
KY*      40.0%    40.0%    30.2%    -9.8%    -0.1%    39.9%
MS       40.1%    40.0%    44.2%     4.3%    11.3%    46.2%
NC       43.8%    43.7%    45.4%     1.6%    11.3%    49.4%
SC       41.4%    41.3%    45.1%     3.8%    10.0%    46.4%
TN*      42.8%    42.8%    56.0%    13.2%     0.5%    43.1%

VA       45.9%    45.8%    48.8%     3.0%     7.9%    49.8%
WV       43.5%    43.6%    40.5%    -3.0%    -5.8%    40.6%
TX       38.5%    38.5%    45.3%     6.8%     4.8%    40.9%
 
        Final    Initial   Late     Change    WPE     Exit
West
CO       47.6%    47.3%    53.6%     6.3%     6.1%    50.7%
ID*      30.7%    30.7%    15.4%   -15.3%     1.0%    31.2%
MT*      39.5%    39.5%    37.0%    -2.5%    -1.8%    38.6%
NM       49.6%    49.4%    61.4%    11.9%     7.8%    53.5%
NV       48.7%    48.7%    50.4%     1.8%    10.1%    53.8%
 
UT       26.7%    27.1%    21.4%    -5.7%     6.4%    29.9%
WY*      29.7%    29.7%    23.8%    -5.9%     4.3%    31.9%
 
        Final    Initial   Late     Change    WPE     Exit
Far West
AK       36.8%    36.2%    39.0%     2.8%    9.6%     41.7%
AZ       44.7%    44.7%    44.7%    -0.1%    4.6%     47.0%
CA       55.0%    55.2%    54.4%    -0.8%   10.9%     60.6%
HI*      54.4%    54.4%    82.6%    28.3%    4.7%     56.8%
OR       52.1%    52.0%    54.6%     2.6%    0.0%     52.1%
WA       53.6%    53.5%    57.7%     4.2%    8.4%     57.9%

Initial and Final Recorded Votes
(in thousands)
         Final                               Initial                             Late
         TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH     OTHER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH   Other
         122294   59028    62041    1224     116654   56404    59834    414      5640     2624     2207    810
 
East     26421    14744    11361    316      25262    14112    10980    170      1159     632      381     146
Midwest  32404    15470    16670    264      31960    15320    16552    87       444      150      117     177
South    37662    15943    21436    284      37142    15790    21261    90       521      153      175     194
West     5936     2437     3404     96        5699    2360     3298     41       238      76       106      56
Far West 19870    10435    9171     264      16592    8822     7743     26       3278     1613     1428     238
 
East
CT       1579     857      694      27       1544     846      685      13       35       11       9        15
DC*      228      203      21       3        226      203      21       1        2        0        0        2
DE*      375      200      172      3        374      200      172      2        2        0        0        1
MA       2912     1804     1071     37       2861     1794     1067     0        51       10       4        37
MD       2387     1334     1025     27       2186     1224     952      11       200      111      73       17
 
ME*      741      397      330      14       734      395      330      8        7        1        0        5
NH*      678      341      331      6        675      340      331      4        2        0        0        2
NJ       3612     1911     1670     30       3405     1799     1587     19       206      112      83       12
NY       7391     4314     2963     114      6892     3993     2796     104      499      321      167      11
PA       5770     2938     2794     38       5643     2886     2757     0        127      52       37       38
RI       437      260      169      8        413      247      162      4        24       12       7        4
VT*      312      184      121      7        309      184      121      4        4        0        0        3

Unadjusted State Exit Polls based on weighted average WPE
Method     Kerry   Avg WPE Wtd Avg   Description
VNS        51.81%   5.95%   7.09%    VNS: 4 outliers removed from average
DSS        52.15%   6.73%   7.77%    Decision Summary Screen: 4 outliers removed
IMS        51.91%   6.29%   7.37%    Input Mgt Screen: no outliers removed

National Exit Poll Timeline (Gender demographic)
3:59pm     50.48%  8349 respondents
7:33pm     50.78% 11027
12:22am    50.78% 13047
Final      47.78% 13660 (matched to initial 117m recorded)

 

NY 2004 Election Calculator
 
Plausible Scenario Assumptions:
95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004
1.22% annual voter mortality
No uncounted votes
 
Scenario 1:
(12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares)
 1.22% annual voter mortality
 
         Turnout  Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other
DNV      0%       1.236    16.7%     57%     41%      2%
Gore     95%      3.718    50.4%     91%     8%       1%
Bush     95%      2.172    29.4%     10%     90%      0%
Nader    95%      0.250     3.4%     64%     17%      19%
 
Total    6.140    7.376    100%     60.54%   37.98%   1.48%
                          7.376     4.465    2.801    0.109

Scenario 2:
(Kerry vote shares increased for NY)
         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other
DNV               1.236    16.7%     61%     37%      2%
Gore     95%      3.718    50.4%     94%     5%       1%
Bush     95%      2.172    29.4%     12%     88%      0%
Nader    95%      0.250    3.4%      68%     13%      19%
 
Total    6.140    7.376    100%     63.45%   35.07%   1.48%
                           7.376    4.680    2.587    0.109

Scenario 3 (most likely):
Uncounted votes: 5%
Gore and Kerry share of uncounted: 75%
        Turnout  Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV       -       1.30     16.8%     61%     37%      2%
Gore     95%      3.96     51.0%     94%     5%       1%
Bush     95%      2.23     28.8%     12%     88%      0%
Other    95%      0.27     3.4%      68%     13%      19%
 
Total   6.46      7.76     100%      64.0%   34.5%    1.5%
                           7.76      4.97    2.68     0.12

Sensitivity Analysis
 
Kerry    Kerry share of New voters
%Gore    57.0%    59.0%    61.0%    63.0%    65.0%
Voters
         Kerry NY Vote Share
98%      65.4%    65.7%    66.0%    66.4%    66.7%
96%      64.3%    64.7%    65.0%    65.3%    65.7%
94%      63.3%    63.7%    64.0%    64.3%    64.7%
92%      62.3%    62.6%    63.0%    63.3%    63.6%
90%      61.3%    61.6%    61.9%    62.3%    62.6%
 
          Kerry Margin
98%      2.50     2.55     2.61     2.66     2.71
96%      2.34     2.39     2.45     2.50     2.55
94%      2.18     2.24     2.29     2.34     2.39
92%      2.03     2.08     2.13     2.18     2.23
90%      1.87     1.92     1.97     2.02     2.08
 
 
Gore     Gore Voter Turnout in 2004
share    93.0%    94.0%    95.0%    96.0%    97.0%
Unctd
Votes    Kerry NY Vote Share
85%      64.0%    64.2%    64.3%    64.5%    64.7%
80%      63.8%    64.0%    64.2%    64.3%    64.5%
75%      63.6%    63.8%    64.0%    64.2%    64.3%
70%      63.5%    63.6%    63.8%    64.0%    64.2%
65%      63.3%    63.5%    63.6%    63.8%    64.0%
 
          Kerry Margin
85%      2.29     2.32     2.34     2.37     2.40
80%      2.26     2.29     2.32     2.34     2.37
75%      2.23     2.26     2.29     2.32     2.34
70%      2.20     2.23     2.26     2.29     2.32
65%      2.18     2.20     2.23     2.26     2.29

 

This table shows how the state exit poll discrepancies declined as they were adjusted prior to the final. The pristine, unadjusted exit poll data was not released by Edison-Mitofsky until Jan.2005. The data indicated that the discrepancies were much greater than for the polls originally downloaded at 12:22am by Jonathan Simon. In other words, the full extent of the apparent fraud was much greater than the original estimate — but this was not known until three months after the election.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/WPDConfirmation.htm

      

Recorded Vote

 

Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Estimates

                           

  

WPE  (Within Precinct Error)  

  

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          12:40 am

      Kerry   Bush  Margin  EV
   
Kerry   Bush  Margin    WPE  EV
   
Kerry   Bush  Margin  Error  EV
   
Kerry   Bush  Margin  Error  EV

Tot   48.27  50.73  (2.46) 251   51.84  47.18    4.66   7.11 324   51.04  48.49    2.56   5.01 301   50.26  49.11    1.15   3.60 288

 

 AL    36.8   62.5  (25.6)        42.5   56.8  (14.3)   11.3        42.0   57.5  (15.5)   10.1        40.6   58.7  (18.1)    7.5    

 AK    35.5   61.1  (25.5)        40.3   56.3  (15.9)    9.6        41.2   57.4  (16.2)    9.3        39.0   58.8  (19.8)    5.7    

 AZ    44.4   54.9  (10.5)        46.7   52.6   (5.9)    4.6        46.5   53.5   (7.0)    3.5        46.8   53.2   (6.4)    4.1    

 AR    44.5   54.3   (9.8)        44.8   54.1   (9.3)    0.5        46.8   52.4   (5.6)    4.2        47.0   52.2   (5.2)    4.6    

 CA    54.3   44.4     9.9  55    59.8   38.9    20.8   10.9  55    56.5   43.5    13.0    3.1  55    56.5   43.5    13.0    3.1  55

 

 CO    47.0   51.7   (4.7)        50.1   48.6     1.4    6.1   9    47.0   52.5   (5.5)  (0.8)        47.7   51.4   (3.7)    1.0    

 CT    54.3   43.9    10.4   7    62.2   36.1    26.1   15.7   7    59.3   39.6    19.7    9.3   7    58.1   40.5    17.6    7.2   7

 DE    53.3   45.8     7.6   3    61.3   37.8    23.5   15.9   3    61.5   37.9    23.6   16.0   3    57.7   41.2    16.5    8.9   3

 DC    89.2    9.3    79.8   3    90.9    7.6    83.2    3.4   3    91.1    8.1    83.0    3.2   3    90.2    8.4    81.8    2.0   3

 FL    47.1   52.1   (5.0)        50.9   48.3     2.6    7.6  27    49.2   50.3   (1.1)    3.9        49.3   50.1   (0.8)    4.2    

 

 GA    41.4   58.0  (16.6)        42.5   56.9  (14.4)    2.2        43.5   56.5  (13.0)    3.6        43.0   57.1  (14.1)    2.5    

 HI    54.0   45.3     8.7   4    56.4   42.9    13.4    4.7   4    56.5   43.4    13.1    4.4   4    53.6   46.4     7.2  (1.5)   4

 ID    30.3   68.4  (38.1)        30.8   67.9  (37.1)    1.0        30.9   69.1  (38.2)  (0.1)        31.6   68.3  (36.7)    1.4    

 IL    54.8   44.5    10.3  21    57.0   42.3    14.7    4.4  21    57.5   42.6    14.9    4.6  21    57.0   42.9    14.1    3.8  21

 IN    39.3   59.9  (20.7)        40.0   59.2  (19.2)    1.5        40.5   59.6  (19.1)    1.6        41.3   58.8  (17.5)    3.2    

 

 IA    49.2   49.9   (0.7)        50.7   48.4     2.3    3.0   7    50.0   49.0     1.0    1.7   7    50.0   49.0     1.0    1.7   7

 KS    36.6   62.0  (25.4)        37.5   61.2  (23.7)    1.7        36.6   62.8  (26.2)  (0.8)        34.4   64.6  (30.2)  (4.8)    

 KY    39.7   59.6  (19.9)        39.6   59.6  (20.0)  (0.1)        40.6   58.6  (18.0)    1.9        40.9   58.3  (17.4)    2.5    

 LA    42.2   56.7  (14.5)        44.1   54.8  (10.7)    3.8        43.2   56.3  (13.1)    1.4        44.3   54.8  (10.5)    4.0    

 ME    53.6   44.6     9.0   4    55.5   42.7    12.8    3.8   4    54.3   44.6     9.7    0.7   4    53.9   44.4     9.5    0.5   4

 

 MD    55.9   42.9    13.0  10    60.0   38.9    21.1    8.1  10    59.4   39.7    19.7    6.7  10    56.6   42.5    14.1    1.1  10

 MA    61.9   36.8    25.2  12    64.8   33.9    31.0    5.8  12    66.3   33.6    32.7    7.5  12    65.7   34.2    31.5    6.3  12

 MI    51.2   47.8     3.4  17    54.4   44.7     9.7    6.3  17    51.8   47.3     4.5    1.1  17    51.9   47.1     4.8    1.4  17

 MN    51.1   47.6     3.5   9    55.7   43.0    12.8    9.3   9    56.7   42.4    14.3   10.8   9    53.7   44.9     8.8    5.3   9

 MS    40.2   59.0  (18.9)        45.8   53.4   (7.6)   11.3        46.2   53.2   (7.0)   11.9        43.4   56.0  (12.6)    6.3    

 

 MO    46.1   53.3   (7.2)        49.0   50.4   (1.4)    5.8        47.8   52.2   (4.4)    2.8        47.8   52.1   (4.3)    2.9    

 MT    38.6   59.1  (20.5)        37.7   60.0  (22.3)  (1.8)        37.8   59.9  (22.1)  (1.6)        37.2   60.0  (22.8)  (2.3)    

 NE    32.7   65.9  (33.2)        36.7   61.8  (25.1)    8.1        37.5   61.7  (24.2)    9.0        36.1   62.6  (26.5)    6.7    

 NV    47.9   50.5   (2.6)        52.9   45.4     7.5   10.1   5    49.3   47.9     1.4    4.0   5    48.9   48.3     0.6    3.2   5

 NH    50.2   48.9     1.4   4    57.0   42.1    15.0   13.6   4    57.1   42.1    15.0   13.6   4    55.1   43.9    11.2    9.8   4

 

 NJ    52.9   46.2     6.7  15    57.8   41.4    16.4    9.7  15    58.4   40.2    18.2   11.5  15    55.3   42.8    12.5    5.8  15

 NM    49.0   49.8   (0.8)        52.9   45.9     7.0    7.8   5    51.7   47.5     4.2    5.0   5    50.8   48.0     2.8    3.6   5

 NY    58.4   40.1    18.3  31    64.1   34.4    29.7   11.4  31    65.1   33.8    31.3   13.0  31    63.1   35.5    27.6    9.3  31

 NC    43.6   56.0  (12.4)        49.2   50.4   (1.1)   11.3        48.2   51.8   (3.6)    8.8        48.1   51.9   (3.8)    8.6    

 ND    35.5   62.9  (27.4)        32.9   65.5  (32.6)  (5.2)        32.3   66.7  (34.4)  (7.0)        33.3   64.9  (31.6)  (4.2)    

 

 OH    48.7   50.8   (2.1)        54.2   45.4     8.8   10.9  20    53.2   46.7     6.5    8.6  20    51.7   48.3     3.4    5.5  20

 OK    34.4   65.6  (31.1)        33.5   66.5  (33.0)  (1.9)        34.1   65.8  (31.7)  (0.6)        34.6   65.4  (30.8)    0.3    

 OR    51.3   47.2     4.2   7    53.0   47.0     6.0    1.8   7    53.0   47.0     6.0    1.8   7    50.3   47.9     2.4  (1.8)   7

 PA    50.9   48.4     2.5  21    55.3   44.0    11.3    8.8  21    56.9   43.1    13.8   11.3  21    54.2   45.7     8.5    6.0  21

 RI    59.4   38.7    20.8   4    61.8   36.3    25.5    4.7   4    62.4   36.3    26.1    5.3   4    63.2   34.9    28.3    7.5   4

 

 SC    40.9   58.0  (17.1)        45.9   53.0   (7.1)   10.0        46.4   52.4   (6.0)   11.1        45.1   53.8   (8.7)    8.4    

 SD    38.4   59.9  (21.5)        36.3   62.0  (25.7)  (4.2)        34.9   63.2  (28.3)  (6.8)        36.8   61.5  (24.7)  (3.2)    

 TN    42.5   56.8  (14.3)        42.8   56.5  (13.8)    0.5        40.3   58.5  (18.2)  (3.9)        41.3   57.6  (16.3)  (2.0)    

 TX    38.2   61.1  (22.9)        40.6   58.7  (18.1)    4.8        36.5   63.5  (27.0)  (4.1)        37.1   62.9  (25.8)  (2.9)    

 UT    26.0   71.5  (45.5)        29.2   68.3  (39.1)    6.4        29.9   69.2  (39.3)    6.2        29.9   68.3  (38.4)    7.1    

 

 VT    58.9   38.8    20.1   3    66.4   31.3    35.1   15.0   3    67.0   30.4    36.6   16.5   3    64.5   32.8    31.7   11.6   3

 VA    45.5   53.7   (8.2)        49.4   49.7   (0.3)    7.9        50.2   49.7     0.5    8.7  13    48.0   51.9   (3.9)    4.3    

 WA    52.8   45.6     7.2  11    57.0   41.4    15.6    8.4  11    54.9   44.2    10.7    3.5  11    54.1   44.6     9.5    2.3  11

 WV    43.2   56.1  (12.9)        40.3   59.0  (18.7)  (5.8)        41.6   57.4  (15.8)  (2.9)        44.9   54.2   (9.3)    3.6    

 WI    49.7   49.3     0.4  10    52.0   47.0     5.1    4.7  10    52.5   46.8     5.7    5.3  10    49.6   49.2     0.4    0.0  10

 WY    29.1   68.9  (39.8)        31.2   66.7  (35.5)    4.3        34.5   63.6  (29.1)   10.7        31.6   66.4  (34.8)    5.0    

[Wilms]

1. "a method used to hack mechanical voting machines (punch card or lever)"????

You might be the guy RHP refers to when he writes, "The writer claims that Harmon "forced a look at the actual lever machines (and) when he took them apart he saw where the teeth that were supposed to poke holes in the ballot were filed down to a nub and those ballots (only on the Democratic levers) were seen as undervotes where a person did not vote at all." This writer is confusing lever machines with punch card machines. Licking County used punch cards in the 2004 election to which this writer refers. Moreover, punch card ballots are punched by hand, by the voter, not by some mechanical device hidden within the machine".

:shrug:

-on edit-

I recommend this thread because more folk need to see that the "urban legend" looks more like an urban myth.

[Bill Bored]

2. TIA, nnfortunately for you and your exit polls, lever machines can't switch votes.

NY is becoming a bluer state in every election lately so unless you are a paid disruptor of some kind, I'd leave NY alone, or come up with another theory to explain your exit poll problem.

That goes for the guy in Virginia too where they have some of the most insecure, unverifiable elections in the country, and Webb still managed to squeeze out a victory in 2006! They may not be so lucky this year.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[foo_bar]

8. nice to see everything's back to teh usual

I guess the powers that be are letting it be, hard to keep a man down who thinks he's good. Why the Mouth of Bev is still with us is a mystery for DUologists, it's not like any good has ever come of it for anyone, unless these pre-verbal bon mots are captured for field research of developmental disorders. Even Bev would have to cringe, she might be a tool but at least she was capable of advancing her own cause (for a little while anyway). So yeah, it's somehow easier to believe that the Dem "machine" is handing votes to the repubs than exit polls being wrong in a city of 8 million. I mean the guy from new zealand has an excuse, as does Bev's man-child, but the ex-new yorker (if he's telling the truth) with the McLean area "press" job with copious vacation time certainly knows better. Do you suppose Big Paper would pay flaks to disparage levers as a loss of potential revenue? That's right HCPB sellouts, the only real solution is hand counted -hemp- paper ballots, otherwise you're part of the problem (if you took the Manichaean premise to its logical conclusion).

[tiptoe]

9. You are right: NY 2004 was more blue than NY 2000. That's the point of the OP. (TIA Response)

source: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004NewYorkLeverExitPollDiscepancies.htm#bline

The Bottom Line

NY is becoming bluer in every election. It was even bluer in 2004 than it was in 2000, when Gore won by 25%. Some suggest that the NY exit polls were off by 12%. What they are saying is that the recorded vote was equal to the True vote. With that logic, if the exits were also off by 12% everywhere else, then Bush must have won a 19m vote landslide with 57–42% (70–51 million). But the national WPE was 7% and Bush won by 3.0m votes (51–48%).

Did Mitofsky have it in for New Yorkers? Why would lever states NY and CT be off the WPE map with 12% and 16%, respectively?

To steal the 2004 election, Bushco needed to win the highly-contested states electoral votes as well as a solid popular vote mandate to make the theft appear legitimate. These were the most critical states where they had to get those votes:

• hard-fought Battleground states for electoral votes (OH, FL, IA, NM, etc.)
  
• heavily Democratic states (NY, CT, CA, NJ, MA, etc) to pad the popular vote, so that no one would notice. After all, 58.5% of the NY vote is still a landslide, so who would question it?

The statistical evidence points to massive fraud in NY. Let's do the math (assume equal Gore/Bush defections):
2000: Gore 60%, Bush 35%, Nader/other 5%
—Give 3/4 of Nader votes to Kerry, 1/4 to Bush.
2004: Kerry 63%, Bush 36%, Other 1%

NY voted 10% higher for Kerry than the rest of the nation. According to the National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry, and 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush (2% net to Kerry). It's safe to assume that in NY, net defection to Kerry was at least 3%. And Kerry won 57-61% of new voters nationwide. It's safe to assume that he had 63-67% of new voters in NY. Unless Bush won 16% of Gore voters and Kerry just 9% of Bush voters, there is no way that Kerry only had 58.5% of the vote. Even if levers are accurate (a big if), that doesn't mean the vote counters are honest.

Naysayers love their levers and don't want them replaced by optical scanners. It would be like tearing down the Statue of Liberty. They are right. Optical scanners can be rigged. But for them to claim that the NY and CT exit polls (2–3% MoE) were uniquely off by 12–16% is really stretching it.

How about HCPB? Why just assume that the votes were counted correctly? Trust, but verify.

[OnTheOtherHand]

10. "NY is becoming bluer in every election."

And TIA knows this how?

The guy ought to stick to incomprehensible tables. Declarative sentences don't serve him well.

[tiptoe]

11. Calculation fix:

Change this:
With that logic, if the exits were also off by 12% everywhere else, then Bush must have won a 19m vote landslide with 57–42% (70–51 million). But the national WPE was 7% and Bush won by 3.0m votes (51–48%).

to this:
By that logic, if all state exit polls were also off by 12%, Bush would have won in a landslide with 54–45% (66–55m). His actual recorded vote margin was 62–59m (50.7–48.3%). The unadjusted aggregate state exit polls indicated that Kerry won by 64–57m (52–47%).

[tiptoe]

3. correction of typo:

re: "5. ...Bush won 58.5% of the initial 6.86m votes..."

Change "Bush" to "Kerry"

Should read: "5. ... Kerry won 58.5% of the initial 6.86m votes ..."

Section in source modified:

5- They failed to consider late votes (absentee, provisional, etc.). There were a total of 7.36 million votes recorded in NY of which 500,000 were late and not recorded until a few days after the election. Kerry won 58.5% of the initial 6.86m votes; Kerry won 65.8% of the late 500,000 (very close to his 65% exit poll). There was a 12% difference in margin between the initial 116.2 million 2-party recorded vote (Bush 51.5–Kerry 48.5%) and the final 4.8m (Kerry 54.3–Bush 45.7%). This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m). This red flag indicates that since the election was decided at the 116m mark, election fraud was no longer necessary. Late votes (absentees, etc.) became irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner. The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 117m recorded votes.

[kster]

4. kick.nt

[autorank]

5. K*R - Outstanding!!!

[MadrasT]

7. Kick!

:kick: