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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 01:24 AM Original message |
4PM EXIT POLL (PRE-HACK) ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 311 EV, 50.6% VOTE |
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Cronus Protagonist (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 01:37 AM Response to Original message |
1. Looks much more realistic to me |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 01:39 AM Response to Reply #1 |
2. LOOK HERE |
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Cronus Protagonist (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 02:01 AM Response to Reply #2 |
3. Yup, I thought they looked much more realistic |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 02:18 AM Response to Reply #3 |
6. Plus there are more numbers aren't there TIA looks like 51 states to me |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 11:38 AM Response to Reply #1 |
22. Link to Final ELECTION MODEL Projection |
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Old and In the Way (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 02:04 AM Response to Original message |
4. They kept NH in play all night. |
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imaginary girl (345 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 02:12 AM Response to Original message |
5. look at the numbers from electoral-vote.com for Nov 1 ... |
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unpossibles (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 02:19 AM Response to Reply #5 |
7. the same site's numbers for Nov 2 |
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imaginary girl (345 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 02:42 AM Response to Reply #7 |
10. Actually he explained those numbers |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 02:24 AM Response to Original message |
8. The only states in play... all others (incl Ohio) were +/- 4% |
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Carolab (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 02:37 AM Response to Original message |
9. Yup, the Minnesota numbers |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 02:54 AM Response to Original message |
11. Same data plus actual results and red shift |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 03:04 AM Response to Reply #11 |
13. Sorted by Redshift (the Freeman / Simon Analysis) |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 03:06 AM Response to Reply #13 |
14. Only 9 States shifted to Kerry - 42 Shifted against him |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 03:12 AM Response to Reply #13 |
15. As a graph... someone else can probably do a better version of this |
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Middle Finger Bush (108 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 03:23 PM Response to Reply #15 |
27. can somene make a graph including all the state names? (nt) |
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Justathought (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 05:21 PM Response to Reply #15 |
35. Looking at these figures |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 09:25 PM Response to Reply #15 |
46. What would be interesting |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Nov-20-04 01:04 PM Response to Reply #15 |
54. Al, take a look at my latest posts re: final public polls vs. exit polls. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 03:18 AM Response to Reply #13 |
16. Note the 8% point swing in New York... you might have thought the NYT... |
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BREMPRO (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 09:10 AM Response to Reply #11 |
19. THIS IS GREAT.. for comparison, is 00/96 data available? |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 03:01 PM Response to Reply #19 |
23. I found a link to 2000 data.. it was a bit of a jungle though. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 03:02 PM Response to Reply #23 |
24. Here it is - 2000 exit poll resources |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 03:02 AM Response to Original message |
12. You have reversed your Delaware and DC Numbers TIA |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 03:27 AM Response to Original message |
17. Sample sizes... This data is based on roughly half the total exit poll |
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ewulf (156 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 04:15 PM Response to Reply #17 |
30. One wouldn't expect a big shift, |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 05:39 PM Response to Reply #30 |
37. That said the samples in each state are much smaller |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 05:49 PM Response to Reply #37 |
38. Wrong spot n/t |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 04:51 AM Response to Original message |
18. Instant News.... Scoop: Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions |
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Peace Patriot (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Nov-18-04 10:25 AM Response to Reply #18 |
50. Some advice for communicating with boobies... |
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Bread and Circus (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 09:37 AM Response to Original message |
20. It's in line w/ predictions made by electoral-vote.com |
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Eloriel (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 05:07 PM Response to Reply #20 |
33. Want a little help with that, B&C? |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 09:54 AM Response to Original message |
21. ALTHECAT, THIS WAS THE FINAL ELECTION MODEL PROJECTION |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 03:09 PM Response to Reply #21 |
25. Is this your final projection TIA? |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 04:40 PM Response to Reply #25 |
31. To be precise, the state polling data was the BASIS for my projection |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 04:48 PM Response to Reply #25 |
32. Al, I'm sorry but I don't recall where I got the last 4 of the 51 states |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 03:17 PM Response to Original message |
26. DEAR DUers - PLEASE CONGRATULATE TIA.... |
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tex-wyo-dem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 04:00 PM Response to Reply #26 |
28. Great Work TIA! |
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notadmblnd (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 05:12 PM Response to Reply #26 |
34. I sit in awe of everyone and their great work on this |
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bleever (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 04:10 PM Response to Original message |
29. Thanks TIA! The act of a true patriot. |
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Helga Scow Stern (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 05:38 PM Response to Original message |
36. Awesome work, TIA! I'll send to Kim Zetter, who has some integrity at |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 05:53 PM Response to Reply #36 |
40. A good link to use if sending this data... blogging it or posting it |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 05:50 PM Response to Original message |
39. UPDATE on my attempts to obtain official Exit Poll Data |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 05:59 PM Response to Reply #39 |
42. Here is a link to the exit poll site |
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Shalom (832 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 05:57 PM Response to Original message |
41. EVEN MORE REVEALING OF BUSHFRAUD |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 06:01 PM Response to Reply #41 |
43. Excellent analysis |
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CAcyclist (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Nov-18-04 03:54 PM Response to Reply #41 |
52. There's The Mandate |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 07:15 PM Response to Original message |
44. NEW WORK TEAM TASK THREAD - TO GET THE FULL EXIT POLL DATA |
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Shalom (832 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-17-04 09:04 PM Response to Original message |
45. Look At Red Shift Votes: Biggest Spikes are FL,PA,OH ! |
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uhhuh (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Nov-18-04 02:08 AM Response to Reply #45 |
47. Kick |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Nov-18-04 09:54 AM Response to Original message |
48. am kick |
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paritom (121 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Nov-18-04 10:22 AM Response to Original message |
49. Great work! |
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madrigal (69 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Nov-18-04 02:44 PM Response to Reply #49 |
51. kick |
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SoCalDemGrrl (786 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Nov-18-04 04:28 PM Response to Reply #51 |
53. kick |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Nov-20-04 08:45 PM Response to Reply #53 |
55. Saturday Night Kick |
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4democracy (285 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Nov-20-04 10:30 PM Response to Reply #55 |
56. Kick |
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mahina (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Nov-20-04 10:42 PM Response to Original message |
57. Truth, you are my hero |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Nov-24-04 08:44 PM Response to Original message |
58. Keep kicked until it sinks in... |
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