8400 Vote Orange County Bush Jump – Absentee Ballots?

[spoogly]

A final spreadsheet of the precinct by precinct breakdown has been posted for Orange County which pinpoints where the 8400 vote jump for Bush likely came from. It appears that it came from absentee ballots. But there is one thing about it that still seems funny; although there is likely some explanation for it. If anyone can set me straight I would appreciate it so I can quit worrying about this.

The new spreadsheet is at:

http://www.ocfelections.com/Public%20Records/2004_Media_Kit/2004%20General%20Official%20Results.htm

There was a huge jump in absentee votes going to Bush between the first posted spreadsheet and the final posted spreadsheet. (Kerry only got 1.5% of them) There could be a reasonable explanation for this, but here are the numbers:

FIRST SPREADSHEET NUMBERS FOR ABSENTEE PRESCINCT
28,568 (BUSH) 28,975 (KERRY)

FINAL SPREADSHEET NUMBERS FOR ABSENTEE PRESCINCT
37,568 (BUSH) 29,091 (KERRY)

ABSENTEE VOTES ADDED FOR EACH CANDIDATE BETWEEN THE FIRST AND FINAL SPREADSHEETS
8,549 (BUSH) 137 (KERRY)

So between the time that the first spreadsheet was posted and the final spreadsheet was posted, Bush tallied 8,549 Absentee Votes and Kerry only tallied 137 Absentee votes. Perhaps there is a difference in the order that they counted absentee ballots; i.e. more that favored Kerry were counted early on and of the remaining 8686 absentee ballots to be counted and added to the tally, Kerry only got 1.5% of them.

This is just playing with numbers, but if you subtract the 8400 votes (described below and in past thread) from the Bush total additional Absentee votes that were added between the first and last spreadsheet results, you get the following additional absentee votes for each candidate:

149 (Bush) 137 (Kerry)

Somehow that balance seems more reasonable to me. But like I said, there is probably some reasonable explanation for this.

BACKGROUND - SOURCE OF THE ORIGINAL 8400 VOTE APPARENT DISCRPENCY

Here is the history from an Internet onlooker’s perspective. There may be a logical explanation of what is actually going on in Orange County, so I don’t want to put the tin-foil hat on until we get some reasonable explanation which might certainly exist.

The first thing that I saw online was a spreadsheet showing the precinct by precinct results from Orange County. There was no addition of the total votes for each candidate. When I downloaded the spreadsheet and summed the columns for Bush and for Kerry, I got the following totals for each:

183,990 (Bush) 193,217 (Kerry) (9227 Vote Difference)

That spreadsheet is still online if anyone wants to go and download it. Someone in the last thread confirmed the numbers. The file is an onscreen spreadsheet and it takes forever to load even on broadband. But here is the link to the spreadsheet:

http://www.ocfelections.com/Public%20Records/2004_Media_Kit/Page.htm

The next thing that I found was the first state rollup of the votes from Orange County that appeared on the Florida Board of Elections Web Site. Those totals showed the following:

192,390 (Bush) 193,217 (Kerry) (827 Vote Difference)

It appeared odd to me that the Kerry total remained the same as the total that I got from the spreadsheet (193,217). The difference between the spreadsheet total found on the Orange County web site is exactly 8400 votes added ONLY TO THE BUSH TOTALS.

How can it be that 8400 votes got added only to Bush on the rollup?

Subsequent to the spreadsheet numbers and the FBOE numbers that appeared from the first rollup, Orange County posted the totals in PDF form that indicated the following numbers:

191389 (Bush) 192030 (Kerry) (641 Vote Difference)

Now the numbers have been updated on the state site and currently are as follows:

192,539 (Bush) 193,354 (Kerry) (815 Vote Difference)

I would expect the minor deviations that appear between the initial state results, the initial county (pdf) results and the final numbers. That doesn’t concern me. But where did the 8400 vote jump all in Bush’s favor come from between the initial spreadsheet and the initial results posted on the FBOE site?

(With the latest updated spreadsheet that has been posted, there is now an answer to this question. The huge Bush jump are attributable to absentee ballots that were later added and which Kerry only got around 1.5% of the additional number added after the first spreadsheet results)

[liberal N proud]

1. The fact it was an even 8400 would make me wonder

What are the odds that it would be even 8400?

[bj2110]

12. Final Absentee Vote Margin is in line...

With many other counties across the state. Most counties showed absentee ballots heavily in favor of Bush. Still doesn't explain the fact that during an update it was almost 100% in favor of Bush. That seems unreasonable.

[Florida_Geek]

2. Sidenote: Orange County FLORIDA

Orange County Calf. is heavy Repug and that would not surprise me. But Florida had a very strong absentee ballot push this year.

[Straight Shooter]

8. I seem to remember MoveOn encouraging absentee ballots in Florida

as well as the GOP doing the same. It might be worth checking with MoveOn to find out whether they were successful in getting a substantial number of Dems in Orange County to vote absentee.

If so, these numbers could well be off.

Good analysis, that took a lot of time. Maybe you want to PM TruthIsAll to take a look at it.

[progressivebydesign]

19. You know.. I don't care how heavy GOP a place is..

.. there is NO place in America where there are 8,400 republicans to 147 Democrats. That's highly illogical, and improbable.

[peacetalksforall]

3. I don't think Rove is behind the purges and the formation of the new

fascist-nazi regime. I think he must still be working the numbers full time.

[Surikat]

4. [deleted by poster]

[spoogly]

5. Clarification - This Is Orange County Florida n/t

[Surikat]

7. Thanks for the clarification...

[Helga Scow Stern]

6. Well, what's going on with this??

[spoogly]

9. I am not sure. there is probably a good explanation.

But is there anyone out there in Orange County that can look at this and go ask Bill Cowles about it? We don't want this to take legs if there is a reasonable explanation. But if there is not a practical explanation, it appears to be a problem at least on its face.

[YBR31]

10. Orange County absentees-are they consistent with 2000?

Orange County absentees ballots-are they consistent with 2000?

[Florida_Geek]

11. spoogly, check the other races

did the 8400 magic votes just show up for President or were they in the other races. I would expect if Fraud for the senate race to show a jump but maybe not some of the minor races.

[spoogly]

13. Here is comparison to US Senate and Public Defender

Take it for what it is worth. It left me even more confused. Senate race results appear to be consistent. County public defender just confuses the whole thing.

TOTAL ABSENTEE BALLOTS CAST
Comparison Between 1st and final spreadsheet data

Presidential Race – Orange County
1st Spreadsheet Total Absentee Ballots
57,543
2nd Spreadsheet Total Absentee Ballots
66,190

# of New Absentee Ballots
8,686
Bush – 8,549
Kerry – 137


US Senate Race – Orange County
1st Spreadsheet Total Absentee Ballots
58,374
2nd Spreadsheet Total Absentee Ballots
64,570

# New Absentees – 6,196
Of The New Absentees -
Castor – 55
Martinez – 6141


County Public Defender – Orange County
1st Spreadsheet Total Absentee Ballots
59,796
2nd Spreadsheet Total Absentee Ballots
59,801

# New Absentees – 5
Of The New Absentees -
Gillespie (Rep) – 0
Wesley (Dem) - 5

[Florida_Geek]

14. Can you spell FRAUD

6000-8000 "new" absentee that did not vote for PD. Bet they did not vote for a lot of races.

[On the Road]

16. That's an Interesting Catch

Do you know voting history on people voting ONLY on national races and leaving local races blank? It's possible, but it would also be the easiest way to commit absentee ballot fraud.

[jbnow]

18. Am I missing something?

In 2000 Gore won 50%/48%
This year they were essentially 50/50...but the "new" absentee ballots are over 98% Bush...

What are the odds of that? I can't imagine any "good" reason.

In most places I read about the ratios are close to the same in early/poll/absentee.
%98 to %2 in a %50 %50 county?

A big drop for local races wouldn't surprise me but in a partisan race people are likelier to chose their party. And...it doesn't make sense given they had MORE then the other two races in the first ballot count.(And how did that happen)

But that aside...a 98/2 split?

That seems crazy even for fraud

[spoogly]

15. Results Consistent With Clerk of Courts

Big jump for Republican in Clerk of Court race too. Appears to be consistent with President and Senate Race. Appears that somehow they must have just counted a lot of absentee ballots from Republicans between the first and second spreadsheet. I am not sure how that would happen. But that is what it appears.

Clerk of Courts – Orange County
1st Spreadsheet Total Absentee Ballots
54,158
2nd Spreadsheet Total Absentee Ballots
61,080

# New Absentees – 6,922
Of The New Absentees -
Gardner Lydia REP – 6,917
Johnson Mary I. DEM- 5

[spoogly]

17. Same for Sheriff

Only difference so far appears to be Public Defender. All other county-wide races so far appear to have a big add-on at the end for the Republican candidate out of absentee votes.

Sheriff – Orange County
1st Spreadsheet Total Absentee Ballots
55,840
2nd Spreadsheet Total Absentee Ballots
62,850

# New Absentees – 7,010
Of The New Absentees -
Beary Kevin REP– 7,005
Staly Rick DEM - 5

[CAcyclist]

21. I'd want to take a look-see at those absentee ballots

It's not possible to have that severe a differential

[shaggy briard]

20. These ratios not possible

Only likely explanation is that a Repub operative gathered a ton of absentee ballot requests for a group and "helped" them fill them out. These sorts of things were going on -- on both sides -- but, why did they not get to these earlier? We should see if we can check these ballots against the county coroners list...
I suspect that this is the real measure of fraud in the election and a good old fashioned one at that

[spoogly]

22. What are the possible explanations for this?

Let me pull this all together so we can try to figure out what might have happened here. Between the first spreadsheet results dated Nov. 2 and the final spreadsheet result, there was a large swing of between 6,000 and 8,000 votes from absentee ballots, swinging consistently toward the Republican candidate. This is true in the Presidential race, US Senate Race, County Sheriff race, and Clerk of Court race. The only place it is not the case is in the public defender race.

Also consistently, the Democratic candidate picked up only a handful of absentee votes from the first spreadsheet to the final results. In each of the county races, the Democratic candidate received exactly 5 additional absentee votes between the first spreadsheet result and the final spreadsheet result. In the Senate race, Castor received 55 additional absentee votes and in the Presidential race Kerry received 137 new absentee votes.

This appears to be very strange on its face. But are there any alternative explanations other than mistake or manipulation?

Is there something in the way they initially sort absentee ballots so that democratic are segregated from Republican? If this is the case, the result could just reflect the fact that they started counting the democrat pile first.

If on the other hand, the absentee ballots are just counted randomly, there does appear to be a problem with these numbers. I am not good at statistics, but it seems that if the counting was done randomly without some sort of presorting, that the odds of these huge swings occuring would be very very very remote.

Can anyone think of any additional explanations?

Does anyone have any knowledge of how this counting was actually done in Orange County, Florida?

[spoogly]

23. Can anyone think of any additional explanations? n/t