The final state polls entered into the Election model had
Kerry leading by ONE percent in the national weighted average:
47.88-46.89
This is equivalent to Kerry getting 50.5% of the two-party
vote
Exit Polls entered into the model had Kerry leading
50.60%-49.34%.
This is equivalent to Kerry getting 50.63% of the two party
vote.
The difference between the two sets of polls is .13%.
This is LESS THAN 1/7 of ONE percent.
The FINAL Pre-election state polls from Zogby, ARG, et al
almost EXACTLY AGREED with the Exit polls.
That is, until the polls abruptly turned to Bush at 1AM, Nov
3.
Final State Polls Exit Polls
Kerry% Bush% K/K+B Kerry% Bush% K/K+B Diff
AL 39 57 40.6% 41.00 59.00 41.0% -0.37%
AK 30 57 34.5% 40.50 59.50 40.5% -6.02%
AZ 45 50 47.4% 47.00 53.00 47.0% 0.37%
AR 48 48 50.0% 46.60 53.40 46.6% 3.40%
CA 49 42 53.8% 54.00 46.00 54.0% -0.15%
CO 47 48 49.5% 49.10 50.90 49.1% 0.37%
CT 52 42 55.3% 58.50 41.50 58.5% -3.18%
DE 45 38 54.2% 58.50 41.50 58.5% -4.28%
DC 78 11 87.6% 91.00 9.00 91.0% -3.36%
FL 50 47 51.5% 50.00 49.00 50.5% 1.04%
GA 42 52 44.7% 43.00 57.00 43.0% 1.68%
HI 45 45 50.0% 53.30 46.70 53.3% -3.30%
ID 30 59 33.7% 33.50 66.50 33.5% 0.21%
IL 54 42 56.3% 57.00 43.00 57.0% -0.75%
IN 39 58 40.2% 41.00 59.00 41.0% -0.79%
IA 50 44 53.2% 50.65 49.35 50.7% 2.54%
KS 37 60 38.1% 35.00 65.00 35.0% 3.14%
KY 39 56 41.1% 41.00 59.00 41.0% 0.05%
LA 40 48 45.5% 44.50 55.50 44.5% 0.95%
ME 50 39 56.2% 54.75 45.25 54.8% 1.43%
MD 54 43 55.7% 57.00 43.00 57.0% -1.33%
MA 64 27 70.3% 66.00 34.00 66.0% 4.33%
MI 52 45 53.6% 52.50 47.50 52.5% 1.11%
MN 52 44 54.2% 54.50 45.50 54.5% -0.33%
MS 42 51 45.2% 43.25 56.75 43.3% 1.91%
MO 44 49 47.3% 47.50 52.50 47.5% -0.19%
MT 36 57 38.7% 39.75 60.25 39.8% -1.04%
NE 32 61 34.4% 36.75 63.25 36.8% -2.34%
NV 49 49 50.0% 49.35 50.65 49.4% 0.65%
NH 47 47 50.0% 55.40 44.60 55.4% -5.40%
NJ 50 42 54.3% 52.80 46.20 53.3% 1.01%
NM 49 49 50.0% 51.30 48.70 51.3% -1.30%
NY 57 39 59.4% 63.00 37.00 63.0% -3.63%
NC 46.7 50.3 48.1% 48.00 52.00 48.0% 0.14%
ND 35 55 38.9% 34.00 66.00 34.0% 4.89%
OH 50 47 51.5% 52.10 47.90 52.1% -0.55%
OK 28 61 31.5% 35.00 65.00 35.0% -3.54%
OR 50 44 53.2% 51.20 48.80 51.2% 1.99%
PA 50 45 52.6% 54.35 45.65 54.4% -1.72%
RI 56 36 60.9% 64.00 36.00 64.0% -3.13%
SC 42 55 43.3% 46.00 54.00 46.0% -2.70%
SD 42 52 44.7% 37.75 62.25 37.8% 6.93%
TN 47.8 50.3 48.7% 41.50 58.50 41.5% 7.23%
TX 37 59 38.5% 37.00 63.00 37.0% 1.54%
UT 24 69 25.8% 30.50 69.50 30.5% -4.69%
VT 53 40 57.0% 65.00 35.00 65.0% -8.01%
VA 47 51 48.0% 45.40 54.10 45.6% 2.33%
WA 52 44 54.2% 54.95 45.05 55.0% -0.78%
WV 45.8 48.6 48.5% 45.25 54.75 45.3% 3.27%
WI 51 44 53.7% 52.50 47.50 52.5% 1.18%
WY 29 65 30.9% 29.00 65.50 31.0% 1.50%
Avg 47.88 46.89 50.50% 50.60 49.34 50.63% -0.13%