Election result analysis for Florida, Pennsylvania, and Nevada

[Eloriel]

compliments of new DUer Indigoblue:

http://findtruthnow.blogspot.com/

Lots charts, data, analysis -- IOW: good stuff. Take a look.

[whistle]

1. Thanks, could someone please provide the distilled essence of what...

...all that data nad those charts are telling us. Did Bush steal the election or not?

[indigoblue]

3. Here is the summary of the results

1. Bush’s widespread gain in actual votes across all the counties in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Nevada is more than expected from all the three predictors; (1) the number of registered republican voters, (2) the 2000 Election results, and (3) the increase in registered republican voters.

2. No clear difference in election outcome can be found between the counties using e-voting machines and optical scans in Florida. The voting methods seem to have very little effects on the the bias toward Bush. In Pennsylvania, the actual votes seem to be less consistent with the number of registered voters in the Lever method.

3. In the small counties of Florida, registered democrats have been voting for republican since 2000 or earlier. The exaggerated patterns in these counties in 2004 were caused by a large increase in actual votes for republicans (more than 20% from 2000) and loss in democrat votes (consistent with the loss of registered democratic voters).

4. Percent actual republican votes increased uniformly since 2000 across the democratic and republican counties of Florida and Pennsylvania.

5. The increase in actual votes for republicans was caused by large, consistent republican voter turnout across the counties of the three states. The democrat turnout was as expected or better.

Question:

How did republicans achieve such a great turnout? Is is possible for republicans to gain votes so uniformly across republican and democratic counties?

The possibility that state-wide vote count manipulation took place on November 2nd should not be discounted and merits further exploration. In Cuyahoga county in Ohio, more voters were counted at precinct level than the number of registered voters. Although Cuyahoga county officials covered it up very quickly, and they said that the final numbers were tallied correctly, if a small portion of votes were added to Bush in a large number of precincts as appeared to have happened in Cuyahoga county, the results of my analyses start to make very good sense.

[whistle]

6. So you are saying that republican registrations were up, republican...

...turnouts were also higher, but because one county in Ohio, Cuyahoga county, slipped up because more voters were counted at one precinct then there were actual voters registered, there is the possibility that we have a fox in the hen house? Thus, if somehow, what happened in Cuyahoga county at a small precinct, happened in the same constant numbers across many precincts, a distinct advantage could have slipped through to Bush without anyone being the wiser.

The only reason we have to suspect this, is because the system hiccuped in the case of this small precinct. Kinda like rounding interest on back accounts down say ten cents a day and depositing the rounded amount to a special account. For the thousands of normal account holders with $10,000 to $100,000 on deposit, the skimming goes unnoticed. But that little old retired school teacher with a $75 savings account, notices she's being short changed and when she complains to the bank manager, the theft is uncovered.

I can see KKKarl Rove thinking up a scheme like that! Thanks.

[Leilani]

7. About Republican registrations & voters being up?

I read that for 4 years Rove worked very quietly to increase registrations.

It was all done on a very organized basis, completely volunteer, not a paid for effort.

He traveled all over the country & took a completely hands on approach.

I was pretty surprised by their effort...it got NO media coverage.

Could this possibly account for the increased numbers?

A lot of this theory is discussed in Newsweek.

[Straight Shooter]

10. Isn't Rove a fairly recognizable and certainly notorious individual?

I would think if he were traveling all over the country that someone would have noticed, somewhere. And just imagine if Thom Hartmann had gotten wind of that news.

If Newsweek is disseminating this info, it's possibly CYA theory as far as I'm concerned. I'm not disputing that registrations were up, but this is some kind of tricky game we're into and I'm not willing to believe everything that's shoveled onto my plate is edible.

[Shalom]

12. THANKS THANKS THANKS

This is awesome work - terrific that Indigoblue has just joined DU, and contributed so much already.

A critical mass of reports such as this is building up, and unless the questions they raise are refuted, they will cast an inkblot over the Bush Dynasty for eternity, and forever inspire us to take our country back. And it will belong to us again.

Thanks again!

[njnop]

31. Thanks

for the info

[newyawker99]

33. Hi njnop!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[IAMREALITY]

2. Very Good Stuff

Welcome Indigoblue!

Ya know, with each additional presentation I read I start to feel like I am one more away from my head blowing up with anger. Sometimes I wish so much I was back in my early 20's instead of married with a 1 yr old (b-day was today hehe) so that I could protest my ass off and stage one hell of a friggin media stunt to gain the attention we need. But alas, I have too much to lose and can't be thrown in jail right now. Somethin tells me wifey just wouldn't understand LOL But man, this stuff is killing me. It keeps ringing in my head, over and over, THIS IS FUCKING AMERICA FOR GOD'S SAKE!!! Just can't get that out of my head.

Anyway, Great stuff IndigoBlue, just one more piece to bolster our case. Thanks!

[jdog]

4. this relates to the polling books and polling tapes...

doesn't it? If more voters were allowed to vote than signed the books - - I'm confused. How do the polling books get balanced to the number of votes?

[truehawk]

8. They don't that is why I have been trying to get everyone

To use a FOIA to request the polling books and count the signatures and the absentees and the provisionals and compare to the total for each precinct.

I found more votes than voters in LA in 1994, when we used punchcards!!

This has been going on for a LOOOOOOOONNNNNGGGGGG time.

[buzzard]

5. IAMREALITY

When Bush comes to Canada we can indict him for war crimes. I know it won't happen but the thought might cheer you up. Our parliament was looking into evoting but for now paper and pencils are all the are needed, at least it can be verified. Good Luck your neighbor to the north.

[Eloriel]

9. This certainly deserves a few more

eyes --

:kick:

[masshole1979]

11. But if the op-scan counties and the touch-screen counties do not differ...

...doesn't that directly contradict the Berkley study everyone's talking about?

Please explain...I am not a math person.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=60795&mesg_id=60795

[papau]

24. Keeping theft of votes at a modest level everywhere does not mean no

theft of votes.

touch-screen offers no recount ability -

And op-scan in FL does NOT have same interesting stats as the electronic voting touchscreens.

It would be nice if Rove was better at this so both types of machines gave the same GOP party building information!

sigh.....

:-)

[TennisGuy2004]

13. Joining with Canada

I just had a thought. You know that map floating around the internet, called "United States of Canada"? I think there should be a movement for the Blue States to actually join Canada. Let the Fundies have their huge Red States of America. Someone should write up a petition. Call Bill Clinton. He can be "Supreme Governor of the Blue States of Canada." Any thoughts?

[Hobbes199]

14. And leave the nukes in the hands of the far right?

I think not.

I've thought for the last 4 years that I'd move to Canada if the unthinkable happened. Now I realize I don't want to abandon this country. In fact I'm thinking of it like a game of RISK, and we just didn't leave enough of our armies in the southern half, and we got invaded. Take back TX or FL and we've got them surrounded.

[txindy]

15. Interesting post

Especially for a first post. I don't know why you're putting it in this thread, though. I also don't know why you'd want to give the fundies anything. They aren't a majority. They don't even get much respect from the GOP. First, B*sh says he's fine with gay civil marriages, then he appoints Specter and Gonzalez, then Jeb refuses to endorse a state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, and now NYC Mayor Bloomberg is having city pension funds recognize gay marriages for benefits. Oh, yeah, they respect their base. :eyes:

The fundies were only important to the GOP for the election. They've been kicked to the curb now. Hey, they trusted B*sh. It's their own fault. Oh, he'll pander to them now and then, but just to keep them in line.

Welcome to DU.

[Hobbes199]

27. I could almost swallow

4 more years if that were true. Well... and if i could be assured of a fair election ever again.

I still sense something sinister under the radar though. Specter may have been unavoidable, Gonzalez may have been political, and Florida may just be because they want an amendment at the national level.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

16. we kicked butt in Pennsylvania

look at these maps, and note how we ate away at the "Republican strongholds"

[indigoblue]

21. Democrats registered so many new voters in PA, but...

the results did not reflect the increase in registered democratic voters.

These figures also indicate the anomaly, don't they?

[Hobbes199]

28. No, that's been explained -- they're all dixiecrats

And have been registering new voters like that for years.

[TruthIsAll]

17. Eloriel, correct me if I'm wrong, but he's trying to build a case for Bush

He is excusing the substantial anomalies by claiming its heavy Repub turnout.

I trust the Berkeley study and Bev Harris.

[nolabels]

18. Eww ........tricky titles and lots of charts

Another great rationalization blogger

Mostly you can pick them out because they don't like or understand the use of color or using large or clear enough blotter data

Does this give it away for you?

"this indicates that republicans were able to get amazing turnout of “sleeper republicans” who have registered as republican but have never bothered to vote before.

They registered years in advance as independent but were really republicans and waited till now to spring up.........okay :eyes:

On edit: I hate using conjecture on conjecture but when someone mixes data with opinions to reach unfounded conclusions then all is fair game

[indigoblue]

20. It is difficult to explain the results if there was no fraud.

Republican turnout on November 2 was higher than expected by 3 different predictors; (1) total voter registration, (2) election results of 2000, (3) voter registration change since 2000 across the democratic and republican strong holds.

I am arguing that it is implausible to get these results if there is no voting fraud or irregularity. My analysis is showing that the election results are not reflecting the partisan demography estimated from registration and historical trends in all the three states, and it is very hard to believe that the election results are legitimate.

[mzmolly]

23. Election results are NOT legit?

Ok, I was confused momentarilly. ;)

[On the Road]

19. Sorry, But I Can't See Anything Very Compelling Here

The reports of heavy Republican turnout do not match our experiences. But this doesn't disprove the official results. You would see similar trends in many elections. There's got to be a better way to go about it.

[papau]

25. heavy Republican turnout not caught by exit polls??? - can we say lies?

:-)

[On the Road]

30. Show Me How You Know Turnout Was Lower Than the Official Count

without saying something like "oh, come on." :)

Make your best case. That's what any of us will be asked to do if this message goes to the press or any public forum.

[papau]

32. Or greater than the official count - indeed - finding official count

documentation would indeed be a fun project.

Perhaps the message is that we are tired of not having real documentation.

Or as in Ohio - now in the record- blank lines w/o signature recorded as voting - perhaps after the polls closed.

Having been in Illinois when they fished ballot boxes out of the water a year after an election, perhaps I enter the discussion with a bit of bias!?!

Having seen the Ill Supreme Court case against the GOP (1963 I BELIEVE) where they were told "stray" marks - perhaps from a penciled GOP election observor - could not kill a vote - or be used to make a Dem vote into a GOP vote, I kind of do not trust the GOP.

but there are those that will say "oh, come on." to anything I say - so no problem!

:-)

[electropop2]

22. Conclusions don't match the analysis

Indigo's analysis is wonderfully detailed and graphic, but his conclusions don't match. First, he uses the notorious 2000 election as an implied baseline (example of a fair election). Second, the conclusions talk quite a bit about machine types, which are not addressed in the analysis at all.

[DARE to HOPE]

26. WHY can we not do a canvass in one of these precincts...

Especially in the Cleveland area

[Woody Box]

29. Mike Lewis analysis

very compelling IMHO, points to the same direction, i.e fraud by registered, but not eligible voters through absentee ballots.

http://www.dakotatechnics.com/downloads/index.htm


ED for not-working link; click "Absentee and Overregistration theory"

[indigoblue]

34. Response to comments from DU members

I posted my responses to some of the comments I received.

http://findtruthnow.blogspot.com/

Statistical analysis cannot provide hard evidences but is a very good tool for identifying patterns and pinpointing where to look for irregularities.