Exit Polling Needed at the LOCAL Level

[On the Road]

I hope this is worthy of a separate thread -- the others are bombed.

As AlTheCat suggested, I am writing to the member organizations of the National Election Pool -- individually so as to reduce the impression of spam.

In asking for the exit poll data, I believe that local information is much more valuable than state totals. I personally don't care whether we get all states -- even OH and FL might be enough. But to identify irregularities, it's important to be able to isolate counties, precincts, or even individual polling places, whatever can be made available. Fraud is never evenly distributed, and the problem areas should stick out like a sore thumb.

I know Mitofski or NEP prefers not to release this, but it's still worthwhile to make the request. It would be a huge win for the audit and recount efforts.

[On the Road]

1. Here's the Letter I Sent:

And the list of addresses:

ABC -- [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail],

AP -- [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail],

CBS -- Don't have it. Does anyone?

FOX -- [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail],

CNN -- [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail],

NBC and MSNBC -- [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail],

=============================================

Dear ABC --

I am writing to you as a concerned citizen to ask that NEP release detailed exit poll data for the 2004 presidential election. In light of the controversy surrounding the exit polls, this would be an enormous public service. Exit poll discrepancies are widely used as an indication of fraud, but the paucity of detail makes it difficult to conclude that this election was clean.

This is especially important in light of a number of problems reported in local news sources, including discarded tapes in Volusia County, Florida and double-counting in Madison County, Ohio:

http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/News/WestVolusia/03WVolWEST04EPOL111804.htm
http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/special_packages/election2004/10208111.htm

Verifying the vote in locations like these and in evoting locations without a paper trail requires data at the county, precinct, or polling place level. Swing states such as OH and FL (and those with very close elections such as NM and NV) are especially important to verify the vote count. It is also important to have final pre-adjusted poll numbers, since the adjusted numbers rely on official vote counts which are themselves under investigation.

Thanks for your attention. This is a major ongoing recount and audit effort which is proceeding without exit poll data. But the NEP data would add greatly to the results.


Jack Neefus
College Park, MD

[flintdem]

2. Mitofski has examined Precinct Level

Walter Mitofski was interviewed on another blog and has already examined precinct level data between paperless machines and the exit polls. He finds no difference (if you buy his argument that +1.9% for Kerry is error produced by non-response of Bush voters).



"One thing he confirmed to me is that the average deviation to Kerry in the completed version of the exit poll was +1.9%. This figure was arrived at by comparing and averaging, on a precinct to precinct level, the exit poll data and the precinct vote returns. When asked if the full 1.9% deviation could be explained by non-response bias (Kerry voters being more likely to complete the exit poll than Bush voters), he said, "It's my opinion, but I can't prove it." He went on to say that it would be an impossible thing to "prove" categorically because there exist an infinite number of variables that could have a micro-impact on the exit poll which could combine for a statistically significant impact. These factors ranged from the weather to the distance from the polling place some of his poll takers were forced to stand. He is also trying to determine whether there is a statistically significant correlation between certain types of precincts and the non-response deviation. Again, right now he feels the most reasonable and logical explanation of the average 1.9% deviation for Kerry was non-response bias.

One possibility he was able to rule out, though, is touch screen voting machines that don't leave any paper trail being used to defraud the election. To prove this, he broke down precincts based on the type of voting machine that was used and compared the voting returns from those precincts with his own exit polls. None of the precincts with touch screen computers that don't leave paper trails, or any other type of machine for that matter, had vote returns that deviated from his exit poll numbers once the average 1.9% non-response bias was taken into account."


http://mayflowerhill.blogspot.com/2004/11/mayflower-hill-exclusive-warren.html

[On the Road]

3. Very Good Interview

Thanks for pointing that out.

I really do not believe that Mitofskyof NEP were part of a fraud effort. HOWEVER, the exit poll data is very important in at least one respect: it is an independent measure of how many people voted by polling place. The difference between official turnout and voters measured by exit pollsters could point to locations where ballot box stuffing or vote-trashing has gone on.