Scoop Images: 2004 Exit Poll "Red Shift" As Seen In Vote Numbers

[althecat]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00264.htm

Scoop Images: 2004 Exit Poll "Red Shift" As Seen In Vote Numbers

By Alastair Thompson with DUer Ed Shalom

The following charts were sent to Scoop as a response to the Scoop article Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions concerning the discrepancies between the 2004 US exit polls and the Presidential election's actual results. The exit polls showed Democrat John Kerry winning the election comfortably, but the actual election recorded Republican President George Bush winning by over 3 million votes.

Democratic Underground forum member Ed Shalom decided to illustrate the observed State by State "Red Shift" (the difference between the US 2004 General Election exit polls - conducted by Edison Mitofsky - and the actual results), in terms of actual numbers of votes rather than simply as percentages.

As some US States have considerably more voters than others this image enables the reader to view where and how many votes were picked up by George Bush over and above what he was expected to receive by the exit polls.

The numbers are obtained simply by multiplying total votes cast per state by the "red shift" percentage.

When presented in this way the data shows a remarkable conclusion the biggest vote "red shifts" occurred in the three battleground states of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

Coincidentally these are the three states addressed in the academic paper The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy" by Dr Stephen F. Freeman. In this paper Dr Freeman discusses the use and methodology of Exit Polls extensively. He concludes that the odds of the level of variation from exit polls to actuals occurring in these three states as did so was 250 million to one.

Dr Freeman ends his report saying:

"Systematic fraud or mistabulation is a premature conclusion, but the election's unexplained exit poll discrepancies make it an unavoidable hypothesis, one that is the responsibility of the media, academia, polling agencies, and the public to investigate."

To date no major US mainstream media outlet (with the sole exception of Keith Olbermann's Countdown show on MSNBC) has addressed the exit poll issue inspite of the fact that the data used in the exit polls was commissioned by them.

*************************

THE GRAPHS

The 2004 Exit Poll – Bush "Red Shift" In Percentage Terms


The 2004 Exit Poll – Bush "Red Shift" In Terms Of Pure Vote Numbers

ENDS

[papau]

1. ABSOLUTELY EXCELLENT - a clear presentation - cudo's to Ed Shalom

or should I say TruthIsAll - and any others that may have helped!

Great Job!

:-)

[Helga Scow Stern]

2. What can we say to the massive invalidation of this that is taking place?

Like in this article criticizing Freeman's study:
http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/the_freeman_pap.html

Or this interview with Mitofsky:
http://mayflowerhill.blogspot.com/2004/11/mayflower-hill-exclusive-warren.html

Or in the announcement that they need to be witheld from the public for their own good?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1003688

I feel like there is a real crisis going on as we speak. And we need to be able to speak intelligently about it to those few who have brain cells not fully saturated with Kool-Aid.

[jdog]

3. Ojai,

Your first 2 sites both came through Blumenthal didn't they? That's one source. I posted this on an earlier thread and someone said they would contact Freeman to address the issues raised there.

This is a GREAT post by the way.

[Helga Scow Stern]

6. Yes, that was me.

And it was your post I got this from. I did e-mail Freeman.

Thanks! I am kind of inept at jumping around between threads, and I apologize for not noting your post.

[bleever]

4. Yeah, that's the stuff. And look at NH, up there with the top prizes...

I've been thinking that now we take the red shift analysis down to the county and precinct levels.

Who here has the best spreadsheet going for correlating the fields of 2004 votes, 200 votes, machines used, county size, precinct size, and other ways to sniff out the overages?

I know somebody here whose stats are much less rusty than mine can throw together a template that we all can use for examining each state. I can hardly tell me chi-squared from my standard deviation anymore.

Suggestions?

[truehawk]

5. Kick

[althecat]

7. +3 Referrer Logs For Truth Is All's 51 State Exit Poll Data

Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions
Full 51 State Early Exit Poll Data Released For The First Time
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm

...excluding scoop. Around 12,000 views of the page so far. If you follow the links and see the citation you can see the context in which this is being discussed elsewhere. As usual Buzzflash is king of the referrers.

3654: http://www.buzzflash.com/
2162:
833: http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/
736: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/17/105424/71
713: http://buzzflash.com/
653: http://www.democraticunderground.com/
470: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2714039
389: http://www.buzzflash.com
238: http://www.rense.com/
205: http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/archives/cat_vote_fraud.html
164: http://whatreallyhappened.com/
132: http://www.whatreallyhappened.com
122: http://www.dubyad40.com/
109: http://www.democraticunderground.com
87: http://dailykos.com/story/2004/11/17/105424/71
84: http://boatertalk.com/forum/BoaterTalk/707727
75: http://chat.forclark.com/story/2004/11/18/123034/84
65: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/17/71423/260
49: http://rense.com/
47: http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076859&tid=gern&sid=7076859&mid=196684
42: http://news.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=37138445&tid=apohioballots&sid=37138445&mid=4516
39: http://www.goroadachi.com/etemenanki/
38: http://buzzflash.com
37: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/17/10323/357
35: http://www.democrats.org/blog/comment/00011230.html
34: http://www.buzzflash.org/
34: http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/index.html
30: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/17/171943/29
27: http://news.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=&action=m&board=37138445&tid=apohioballots&sid=37138445&mid=4516&thr=4516&cur=4516&dir=d
24: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x56674
24: http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=21620130
23: http://www.kathymcmahon.utvinternet.com/mrn/
22: http://www.washingtondispatch.com/spectrum/archives/000729.html
21: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/18/81044/392
20: http://www.makethemaccountable.com/
19: http://www.rense.com
18: http://buzzflash.org/
18: http://www.dubyad40.com
17: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=2714039&mesg_id=2714039
17: http://boatertalk.com/messageframe.php?frames=yes&forumid=BoaterTalk&mid=707727
15: http://www.blackcommentator.com/114/114_cover_election.html
13: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/17/16224/417
12: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x61892
12: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=56674&mesg_id=56883&page=
11: http://www.fusionanomaly.net/anomalog/
11: http://whatreallyhappened.com
10: http://www.dailykos.com/section/Diary
10: http://www.mutanteggplant.com/ElectionGuide.htm
10: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x58415
9: http://www.linkcrusader.com/
9: http://www.nightweed.com/angrygirl.html
9: http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7083976&tid=sbgi&sid=7083976&mid=15346
9: http://www.buzzflash.net/
9: http://dubyad40.com/
9: http://www.enneagraminstitute.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=8190
8: http://blog.radioleft.com/blog/_archives/2004/11/17/185543.html
8: http://www.earthside.com/news.html
8: http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2004/11/17/171943/29/10
8: http://www.hiddenmysteries.org/headlines/headlines.html
8: http://216.177.7.126/
7: http://www.buzzflash.org
7: http://newzmaniac.com/
7: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=58415&mesg_id=58415
7: http://www.kathymcmahon.utvinternet.com/mrn/index.htm
7: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=56674
6: http://blog.radioleft.com/blog/VotingAnomalies/_archives/2004/11/17/185543.html
6: http://www.libertyforum.org/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=news_politics&Number=293111251
6: http://sockthief.blogspot.com/
6: http://makethemaccountable.com/
6: http://www.Buzzflash.com/
5: http://www.dailykos.com/user/markusd
5: http://chat.forclark.com/story/2004/11/18/123034/84/?commentmode=nested
5: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=2714039&mesg_id=2714039&page=
5: http://www.redefeatbush.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=304
5: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/18/191236/40
5: http://rense.com
4: http://www.newsisfree.com/iclick/i,61263626,5879,f/
4: http://forums.craigslist.org/?act=Q&ID=21509208
4: http://revolutionagainandagain.blogspot.com/
4: http://www.rbnlive.com/news.html
4: http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=37949&start=630
4: http://dailykos.com/story/2004/11/17/71423/260
4: http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/archives/week_2004_11_14.html
4: http://www.thomhartman.com/ubb/ultimatebb.php?/ubb/get_topic/f/15/t/000298.html
4: http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=GOV&read=922709
4: http://news.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=37138469&tid=apiowavotetally&sid=37138469&mid=1549
3: http://tabletalk.salon.com/webx?[e-mail]9nQk.1@.773a529d
3: http://www.buzzflash.net
3: http://news.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=37138469&tid=apnewcongress&sid=37138469&mid=183
3: http://news.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=37138445&tid=apohioballots&sid=37138445&mid=4583
3: http://www.ballotintegrity.org/DCForumID1/174.html
3: http://www.thiscenturysucks.com/
3: http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=37949&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=630
3: http://chat.forclark.com/story/2004/11/18/123034/84?commentmode=nested
3: http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/archives/2004_11.html
3: http://www.democraticunderground.org/
3: http://markusd.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/17/105424/71
3: http://www.linkcrusader.com
3: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/wethepeoplespeak/message/860
3: http://www.tvnewslies.org/news/
3: http://www.BuzzFlash.com/
3: http://nzdems.blogspot.com/2004/11/complete-us-exit-poll-data-confirms.html
3: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TruthSeekersElection2004/message/266
3: http://www.netaddress.com/tpl/Message/423KMMWWT/Read

[Helga Scow Stern]

9. So this means that you got it!

[Lil]

8. Wow. Thanks.

A "picture worth 1000 words" time.

[althecat]

10. Can we let this die... we need to redo the data for the graph...

Sorry.. but the states are all mixed up... and it is not an accurate representation....

Will fix it up tomorrow.