THIS IS WHY KERRY, NOT BUSH, WILL BE OUR NEXT PRESIDENT.

[TruthIsAll]

Americans love a Hollywood ending.

They root for the good guy to win.

They love to see the villain frog-marched.

They believe in judicial and poetic justice.

They are suckers for the truth.

They enjoy clean air and pristine waters.

They do not look forward to Armageddon.

They know Fascism when they see it.

They know they were fooled once, but won't be fooled again.

They know all this. So does the media.

Just getting all their ducks in a row.

[Dem Agog]

1. TIA

I wish you were right, and if you are I will buy you a beer and give you a wet old sloppy kiss (you are a guy, right?)...

I'm pretty sure I won't have to pony up on either though. :( :( :(

[bleever]

2. We've got your back, John Kerry. This is your time.

[99Pancakes]

11. Let's see the Turkey in the Shrub

this Thanksgiving! (or maybe we'll see the shrub in the turkey)
gobble-gobble!

[Chimpanzee]

42. yeah, but no pardons for him! Off with his head! n/t

[billyoc]

3. Great post.

I'm with you. :hi:

[crispini]

4. I hope so... jeez, I hope so!

[txindy]

5. Believe it. I know I do. Every word of it.

John F. Kerry WILL be inaugurated on January 20, 2005.

In the meantime, while a bit nerve-wracking, I find the media silence really rather soothing. ;) They'll get over it soon enough. :evilgrin:

[TexasChick]

9. Howdy again, txindy! Do you think Bev's case will save the day or will it

be something bigger? I don't see how he's gonna be inaugurated, guys! But, I always look to you fellow DUers for enthusiasm! If you think so, I guess I think so too! :D



:grouphug:

[txindy]

15. Fraud doesn't need to be proven to flip OH or FL

Just a recount could do it. Fraud is something that could be investigated and prosecuted over the next four years.

Bev is working on FL and Cobb/Badnarik are stepping up in OH. Any definitive news out of NH about the elec. voting machines being suspect would work for us, too.

This is very doable, TexasChick. It really is. :toast:

[ithacan]

6. if there's even a possibility of that happening, I predict an "attack"

if it turns out Kerry was the winner, the Bushies will definitely engineer an attack so as to justify the absolute necessity for "continuity".

The Ohio legislature will decide that its electors should be chosen not by voters, but by the legislature itself (as it was originally), GOP dominated of course... Justifying it by "national security"

These guys will NOT give up. They do NOT respect rules. They will do ANYTHING to hang onto power.

[glitch]

12. Unfortunately I agree with you ithacan. But I love your spirit TIA! nt

[99Pancakes]

13. That is my biggest worry

They are not afraid to fight. They don't care about their image---they just do whatever it takes.

[Hobbes199]

7. Thanks for the thoughts!

[truehawk]

8. Ed

Do you still need money for the full individual state exit polls?

[Catherine Vincent]

10. Doesn't seem like it to me.

I'm losing hope.:-(

[jsascj]

14. Half of us do anyway

I still can't figure out the other half?

[TennisGuy2004]

16. COMPARISON OF EXIT POLL DATA FROM 2000 AND 2004 ELECTION - PASS IT ON

RAW EXIT POLL DATA versus RESULTS 2000 and 2004

The following is some allegedly "raw" poll data from the 2000 Election as listed by freerepublic.com. As I understand it, these are the "final" exit poll numbers, taken late in the day.

FLORIDA
exit poll: Bush 47 Gore 50
actual result: Bush 48.8 Gore 48.8
shift: Bush 3%

NEW HAMPSHIRE
exit poll: Bush 48 Gore 47
actual result: Bush 48.2 Gore 47.8
shift: Gore .6%

MICHIGAN
exit poll: Bush 46 Gore 50
actual result: Bush 46.4 Gore 51.1
shift: Gore .7%

MISSOURI
exit poll: Bush 49 Gore 46
actual result: Bush 50.4 Gore 47.1
shift: Bush .3%

ARKANSAS
exit poll: Bush 50 Gore 47
actual result: Bush 51.3 Gore 45.7
shift: Bush 2.6%

TENNESSEE
exit poll: Bush 50 Gore 47
actual result: Bush 51.2 Gore 46.2
shift: Bush 2%

PENNSYLVANIA
exit poll: Bush 48 Gore 48
actual result: Bush 46.4 Gore 50.6
shift: Gore 4.2%

NEW MEXICO
exit poll: Bush 48 Gore 46
actual result: Bush 47.9 Gore 47.9
shift: Gore 2%

MINNESOTA
exit poll: Bush 46 Gore 46
actual result: Bush 45.5 Gore 47.9
shift: Gore 2.4%

WISCONSIN
exit poll: Bush 50 Gore 45
actual result: Bush 47.6 Gore 47.8
shift: Gore 5%

IOWA
exit poll: Bush 50 Gore 47
actual result: Bush 48.2 Gore 48.5
shift: Gore 3.3%

NEVADA
exit poll: Bush 48 Gore 44
actual result: Bush 49.5 Gore 46.0
shift: Gore .5%

The only discrepancies that really jump out at you among these data are the ones in Pennsylvania (Gore shift: 4.2%), Wisconsin (Gore shift: 5%), Iowa (Gore shift 3.3%), and Florida (Bush shift 3%). So, the biggest shift was definitely in Wisconsin (Gore, 5%).

Now look at the shifts in the 2004 election, among some battleground states. Here, we are using exit poll data as provided by the Election Pool (shown on cnn.com, msnbc.com, etc...), and we are once again looking at exit polls taken late in the day on Nov. 2nd, 2004.

NOTE: these exit polls were, in fact, weighted to accurately represent an appropriate proportion of women to men. It would be interesting to see the data first-hand, but the Election Poll refuses to release the original exit poll data for further examination.

NEW HAMPSHIRE
exit poll: Bush 44.1 Kerry 54.9
actual result: Bush 49.0 Kerry 50.3
shift: Bush 9.5%

OHIO
exit poll: Bush 47.9 Kerry 52.1
actual result: Bush 51.0 Kerry 48.5
shift: Bush 6.7%

PENNSYLVANIA
exit poll: Bush 45.4 Kerry 54.1
actual result: Bush 48.6 Kerry 50.8
shift: Bush 6.5%

MINNESOTA
exit poll: Bush 44.5 Kerry 53.5
actual result: Bush 47.6 Kerry 51.1
shift: Bush 5.5%

FLORIDA
exit poll: Bush 49.8 Kerry 49.7
actual result Bush 52.1 Kerry 47.1
shift: Bush 4.9%

NEVADA
exit poll: Bush 47.9 Kerry 49.2
actual result: Bush 50.5 Kerry 47.9
shift: Bush 3.9%

NEW MEXICO
exit poll: Bush 47.5 Kerry 50.1
actual result: Bush 50.0 Kerry 58.9
shift: Bush 3.7%

COLORADO
exit poll: Bush 49.9 Kerry 48.1
actual result: Bush 52.0 Kerry 46.8
shift: Bush 3.4%

WISCONSIN
exit poll: Bush 48.8 Kerry 49.2
actual result: Bush 49.4 Kerry 49.8
shift: No shift

As you can see, the only state where the outcome matched the exit poll's prediction is Wisconsin. New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Florida all reveal some fairly large shifts ranging from 4.9% and 9.5%, and they're all in Bush's favor. What's more, certain non-battleground states, such as Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, and Delaware also show a Bush shift ranging from 8% to 10%. Those are pretty huge shifts.

Either the exit pollsters are phenomenally incompetent, phenomenally corrupt, or there has been a huge mistabulation and/or fraud in this election.

Let's ask ourselves: What has changed significantly over the last fifty years? The methods by which we conduct exit polls or the methods by which we count the votes.

It's the methods by which we count the votes.

[truehawk]

17. Superior!!!

Wonderful analysis!!!

Make this a thread please it deserves to be seen!!

[TennisGuy2004]

19. previous exit poll analysis

I don't know if I can make it a main thread because I got an error message saying I haven't done enough posts yet. I'm a brand new user. Can someone cut and paste these exit polls and put them on the main subjects?

[Doohickie]

18. TruthIsAll- I said a similar thing in the thread I BELIEVE

I said this will make a great movie. Sometimes real life makes the best movies.

Do not adjust your set.

I BELIEVE!

[New Earth]

20. i believe

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<


KEEP HOPE ALIVE

[txindy]

24. We believe all right.

We'll keep both of these threads kicked with happy thoughts and will our way to John Kerry's inauguration in two months!

:toast:

We've got your back, Senator Kerry. Against the fraud and against the naysayers.

[juajen]

28. I'm with you. I believe.

:kick: :kick:

[hippiegranny]

21. Also, the mess in Fallujah;

wouldn't some of the Jesusland voters now be regretting their short sighted anti gay marriage vote in the face of this carnage?

[txindy]

23. I sure hope so

Especially since Junior, Jeb, and Bloomberg have all stabbed them neatly in the back on that issue in the last few days. Add the appointing of Specter and Gonzalez and fundieland is NOT happy with their Dear Leader. Too bad. :evilgrin:

[Helga Scow Stern]

22. We don't stand for cheating.

Cheating on wives or husbands is okay, but when it comes to stealing votes, that is a sin that strikes deep at the heart of the nation.
Rove miscalculated on that. It was so stupid of them to mess with the vote in a year when GOTV was so strong. This will not go away. I think they will end up behind bars.

[Timebound]

26. I hope so. n/t

[Flammable Materials]

25. Your quaint description of America is from a kinder, gentler era.

I refuse to get my hopes up.

Bush wins.

Crime pays.

The good guy gets two slugs in the head in the first reel.

The audience loves blood, and doesn't care who's it is.

They are suckers for anyone who will tap into their inner demons.

[gumby]

29. my description is way darker than yours,

so since i don't have anything nice to say.... i won't say it.

[Poll_Blind]

27. It's oh so quiet...it's oh so still...

(three beer disclaimer, after reading this myself I don't recommend anyone read it at all. Seriously, go on to the next post)

All I know is I have been following politics pretty damned closely for about 19 years now and this silence by Kerry, Edwards, Democratic leadership in general- it's fucking spooky. Something's going down or gone down but I can't quite find out what it was. Mainly what is freaking me out is Kerry. After the election, he's out the next day. Early. Then I started to get some vibe like there was something going down in our favor.

I was looking into the fog of uncertainty and I thought I could see this big old train, shining a beam and cutting through this filth we've had to live through. Except what comes out of the fog is a kid riding a bike and his pedaling is powering the light. And that's it. I'm waiting for something else, and there are those (I was one of them) who are like "Listen, can you hear that tip-tap in the distance? That's an army coming to rescue us and soon their steps will be echoing in our ears!"

Except I can't even hear that goddamned tip-tap anymore. I don't know what to do. Don't get me wrong, I can't believe their are people like Bev Harris and the whole crew at Air America, and tons of other folks who are doing everything they can to...

I dunno what. I used to think I knew what, but I don't even hear that tip-tap anymore. I know there's recounts going in Ohio and NH and maybe some others, I've been in a state of shock and some news admittedly has gotten by me. I haven't checked what all this would mean to the electoral vote, but I don't wanna look because if I look that fog might clear up and become a certainty. Now, I'm just hoping for the fog, but I know I won't even have that all too soon.

And then there will just be this stark landscape with a madman diving the plane into the ground and half the passengers are fighting the other half, and maybe not enough people to fight this goddamned country back into the air.

I used to say it in gayer times and now it's come back to haunt me: The worst thing about America is the Americans. I sure hope this has a pretty ending, I know everyone's got a part to play, but I just do the part of the bellhop in this scene and the leading man refuses to come on stage. The director's not pulling his hair out, he's just watching the stage in silence. What the fuck is going on?

PB

[gumby]

30. did you read this?

http://www.buzzflash.com/farrell/04/11/far04039.html

since i'm trying to be "nice," i think Farrell gives a nice summary.

[Poll_Blind]

31. Thanks for posting that, just got done reading it.

"I don't know what the future holds, but I do not doubt for a moment that the Next Big Thing is upon us. Here's to the Fates. Let's hope that they are kind."

PB

[lcordero]

32. Sorry but

the bad guy always wins. Kerry needs to act like a supreme a-hole really soon so that he can win.

[gumby]

34. good one!

What are those smiley faces doing?

Are they allowed on Monday Night Football?

[lcordero]

39. nope

they aren't allowed on Monday Night Football;)

[simply_the_best]

33. I Believe

O8)

[zann725]

37. I do too...

"...Votes are still being counted."

[Baja Margie]

35. I hope you are right.

Oh man wouldn't it be sweet !

[Technowitch]

36. I wish. But it sounds too much like sheer fantasy, friend.

There are those who would see us, the dissenters, frogmarched into detention camps.

[malatesta1137]

38. you have a better chance to hit the jackpot twice this weekend, TruthIsAll

or let's see:

Americans love a Hollywood ending.
THEY GOT A HOLLYWOOD ENDING WITH BUSH, THE COWBOY WHO BUTCHERS INDIANS AND ALWAYS WINS AT THE END

They root for the good guy to win.
THE SAME WAY THEY ROOT FOR SCARFACE

They love to see the villain frog-marched.
SURE, THAT'S WHY TOM DELAY WAS REELECTED

They believe in judicial and poetic justice.
SURE, THAT'S WHY AMERICANS ALLOWED KOREA, VIETNAM, IRAQ AND REELECTED THE LEADERS WHO INVADED THESE COUNTRIES

They are suckers for the truth.
THE ONLY TRUTH THEY CARE ABOUT IS IN THEIR PORTFOLIO

They enjoy clean air and pristine waters.
AS LONG AS THEY CAN STILL DRIVE THEIR SUVs TO MCDONALDS AND BURGER KING

They do not look forward to Armageddon.
THEY'D RATHER SUCCUMB TO ARMAGEDDON THAN SEE TWO GAYS MARRY OR A WOMAN HAVE THE RIGHT TO CHOOSE.


They know Fascism when they see it.
AND THEY CAN'T WAIT TO REELECT IT FOR 4 MORE YEARS

They know they were fooled once, but won't be fooled again.
THAT'S WHY THEY ELECTED A BUSH IN 88 AND HIS SON IN '00 AND '04


They know all this. So does the media.
THEY LOVE TO BE TOLD LIES AND THE MEDIA IS ALWAYS READY TO OBLIGE

Just getting all their ducks in a row.
NOW YOU'RE TALKING, THEY CAN'T WAIT TO HUNT DOWN DUCKS WITH THEIR FIREARMS.

[jackstraw45]

40. There's a 99.97% probability that you have more faith in half of Americans

than I do....

[proudtobeadem]

41. kick