NEW! GRAPH OF KERRY'S 2-PARTY% SHIFT TO BUSH AND PROBABILITY OF THE SHIFT

[TruthIsAll]

This graph has just been added to the thread below, but it deserves to be noticed, just in case.



LEFT AXIS: KERRY 2-PARTY RED SHIFT TO BUSH (BARS)
RIGHT AXIS: PROBABILITY OF RED SHIFT (LINE)

Shifts to Bush (MOST states) are NEGATIVE and are on the LEFT and CENTER of the graph.

Shifts to Kerry (only NINE states) are POSITIVE and are on the extreme RIGHT side of the graph.

This is the original thread.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x67560

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

1. TIA, you keep it up.

You are doing some fine, fine work. It will receive the recognition it deserves.

[TruthIsAll]

2. I had the original graph link by mistake. THIS IS THE RIGHT GRAPH.

AND HERE IS THE RED SHIFT DATA 
 
Average State Poll Margin of Error: 3.05% 
(based on published statistics on the number polled)			

Average Standard Deviation 1.55% 
(input to the Excel Normal Distribution function to calculate
the probabilities)

For example, here is the calculation for the probability that
Kerry's 2-party% in AZ would shift from the exit poll to the
actual by 2.56% (47%-44.44%): Prob = 4.96% 

Prob = NORMDIST(44.44%,47.00%,1.55%,TRUE)
								
	EXIT POLLS	Kerry%	ACTUAL VOTE 	Kerry	Red		
State	Kerry	Bush	2-Party	Kerry	Bush	2-party	Shift	Prob
AK	40.5	59.5	40.50%	35	62	36.08%	8	0.22%
AL	41	59	41.00%	37	63	37.00%	8	0.49%
AR	46.6	53.4	46.60%	45	54	45.45%	2.2	23.00%
AZ	47	53	47.00%	44	55	44.44%	5	4.96%
CA	54	46	54.00%	55	44	55.56%	-3	84.22%

CO	49.1	50.9	49.10%	47	52	47.47%	3.2	14.72%
CT	58.5	41.5	58.50%	54	44	55.10%	7	1.42%
DC	91	9	91.00%	90	9	90.91%	1	47.66%
DE	58.5	41.5	58.50%	53	46	53.54%	10	0.07%
FL	50	49	50.51%	47	52	47.47%	6	2.53%

GA	43	57	43.00%	41	58	41.41%	3	15.31%
HI	53.3	46.7	53.30%	54	45	54.55%	-2.4	78.92%
IA	50.7	49.4	50.65%	49	50	49.49%	2.3	22.82%
ID	33.5	66.5	33.50%	30	68	30.61%	5	3.12%
IL	57	43	57.00%	55	45	55.00%	4	9.85%

IN	41	59	41.00%	39	60	39.39%	3	15.01%
KS	35	65	35.00%	37	62	37.37%	-5	93.72%
KY	41	59	41.00%	40	60	40.00%	2	25.94%
LA	44.5	55.5	44.50%	42	57	42.42%	4	9.03%
MA	66	34	66.00%	62	37	62.63%	7	1.48%

MD	57	43	57.00%	56	43	56.57%	1	38.97%
ME	54.8	45.3	54.75%	53	45	54.08%	1.5	33.43%
MI	52.5	47.5	52.50%	51	48	51.52%	2	26.26%
MN	54.5	45.5	54.50%	51	48	51.52%	6	2.71%
MO	47.5	52.5	47.50%	46	54	46.00%	3	16.66%

MS	43.3	56.8	43.26%	40	60	40.00%	6.5	1.78%
MT	39.8	60.3	39.76%	39	59	39.80%	-0.5	50.92%
NC	48	52	48.00%	44	56	44.00%	8	0.49%
ND	34	66	34.00%	36	63	36.36%	-5	93.64%
NE	36.8	63.3	36.76%	32	67	32.32%	8.5	0.21%

NH	55.4	44.6	55.40%	50	49	50.51%	9.8	0.08%
NJ	55	45	55.00%	53	46	53.54%	3	17.23%
NM	51.3	48.7	51.30%	49	50	49.49%	3.6	12.21%
NV	49.4	50.7	49.35%	48	51	48.48%	1.7	28.82%
NY	63	37	63.00%	58	40	59.18%	8	0.69%

OH	52.1	47.9	52.10%	49	51	49.00%	6.2	2.28%
OK	35	65	35.00%	34	66	34.00%	2	25.94%
OR	51.2	48.8	51.20%	52	48	52.00%	-1.6	69.71%
PA	54.4	45.7	54.35%	51	49	51.00%	6.7	1.54%
RI	64	36	64.00%	60	39	60.61%	7	1.43%

SC	46	54	46.00%	41	58	41.41%	9	0.15%
SD	37.8	62.3	37.76%	39	60	39.39%	-3.5	85.38%
TN	41.5	58.5	41.50%	43	57	43.00%	-3	83.34%
TX	37	63	37.00%	38	61	38.38%	-3	81.40%
UT	30.5	69.5	30.50%	27	71	27.55%	5	2.85%

VA	47	51	47.96%	45	54	45.45%	5	5.31%
VT	65	35	65.00%	59	39	60.20%	10	0.10%
WA	55	45.1	54.95%	53	46	53.54%	2.9	18.15%
WI	52.5	47.5	52.50%	50	49	50.51%	4	9.90%

WV	45.3	54.8	45.25%	43	56	43.43%	3.5	12.01%
WY	29	65	30.85%	29	69	29.59%	4	20.83%

 
 





 
 

[BlueEyedSon]

3. Why would a large positive red shift (KS, ND) have a high probability?

Wouldn't the near zero shifts have the highest probability?

[TruthIsAll]

4. They have a high probability of being correct because

the probability that Bush would win them was very high, so the percentage deviations (to Kerry) are relatively small and of no consequence.

Another example: Note that OR has paper ballots only which are hand-counted. So we would expect that the probability of fraud would be miniscule. It is.

Focus on the states that had the most potential for fraud:
Optiscam (FL, etc);
Diebold Touchscreens (GA, etc);
Punched cards (OH, etc).

[papau]

5. Are these then the 18 states where fraud most likely occurred?

state/redshift/prob of red shift
AK 8 0.22%
AL 8 0.49%
CT 7 1.42%
DE 10 0.07%
FL 6 2.53%
MA 7 1.48%
MN 6 2.71%
MS 6.5 1.78%
NC 8 0.49%
NE 8.5 0.21%
NH 9.8 0.08%
NY 8 0.69%
OH 6.2 2.28%
PA 6.7 1.54%
RI 7 1.43%
SC 9 0.15%
UT 5 2.85%
VT 10 0.10%

because Georgia seems to be one of the "better" states I suspect I am not reading this correctly.

[TruthIsAll]

7. Papau, I am looking at the forest, not the trees.

GA has a 15% probability of deviating as much as it did from the exit polls to Bush. Draw your own conclusions.

Why don't you focus on PA, OH, FL?

[recentdemocrat]

6. Sorry if this has been already asked and answered (repost)

but I have not seen it. I've been lurking here for a bit and registered just so I could clear up something. The original analysis of the red shift was posted by TruthIsAll a while ago, based on 4pm exit poll data. My question is where did this exit poll data come from? As far as I know, NEP has not released any data (other than to the subscribing members). This analysis has provoked a bit of controversy over at dKos where I usually am, and one of the biggest questions has to do with where the original exit poll data came from.
Again, if this had been answered in a previous thread, I apologize, but it's really driving me buggy. Any information would be most appreciated. Thanks
(This is a repost from the other thread this morning. Not sure if anyone is still reading/posting to that other thread)

[99Pancakes]

8. Welcome!

:hi:
Thanks for jumping in!