Ohio Provisional Vote Count Update

[righteous1]

The latest Ohio Provision vote count shows Bush + 12803 Kerry + 8520. 41/80 counties reported. Approximately 78% acceptance rate. Note: largest counties still have not reported. Complete breakdowns @ http://www.ohvotesuppression.blogspot.com

[forgethell]

1. This does not look good. n/t

[rockymountaindem]

3. I'm sure it's rural counties reporting first.

Don't worry until the big cities start coming in.

It doesn't matter anyway, I don't think this is going to be overturned. I just don't see any way it could work out.

[Sodium Pentothal]

7. Yea, thats what I thought election night too

that the numbers weren't matching the exit polls because small rural voting places didn't have much to do and finished quickly. I waited for the "6 hour line" boost.... i m still waiting!

[ahyums]

32. thinking about though, wasn't most of the fraud alleged to have taken

place in the larger counties where figures could be more easily manipulated

[righteous1]

249. kick

[brindis_desala]

126. That was the giveaway

smaller precincts with shorter lines and newer machines would obviously be reporting first, the Dems are clustered in the cities. When Ohio surged for Stump that's when we knew the fix was in

[berniew1]

136. Officials have only posted the Bush counties; obstructing vote to run out

These are the small rural Bush counties that are posted. the Elections Supervisor is holding up the vote count and posting of provisional votes and doing other things to run out the time on the Ohio vote recount and make it look unnecessary. He's been doing such throughout the process. His disinformation apparently mislead Kerry into thinking he didn't have a chance in recount. But it was clearly disinformation. Such should not be allowed and also such as he with bad record regarding bias should not be believed. See the post by Dr. Phillips elsewhere on this thread. The big urban counties are not listed. But also note that the elections officials will try to not count the minorities votes in those precincts, even though most are clearly eligible voters and any problem is due to malfeasance of election officials rather than voters. Most of the votes being discarded can be clearly seen to be the result of official malfeasance and unreasonable rules- not due to voters being ineligible to vote.

[noclonyofthechimp]

152. I couldn't believe Kerry took this guy's word to begin with given his

history and his "wearing of many repuke hats"

[batchdem04]

2. thats just 20k out 120k, right?

[righteous1]

4. Conventional wisdom

Says that after all are counted there should be a 70% acceptance rate so that would be 109000. 21323 conted divided by 109000=20% completed.

[righteous1]

232. bump

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. 78% of 155 = 120. eom

[righteous1]

8. If you

read each county on the blogspot, you will notice that some big counties have a higher "throw out" rate. ie Cuyohoga 35% Lucas 50+ % so that will bring down the overall acceptance percentages

[righteous1]

199. kick

[fryguy]

6. looks like *'s "lead" is INCREASING

even if the "largest counties" have yet to report, it would appear that kerry is slipping further behind - now he would not only have to surmount the 13,6483 vote deficit from the initial count, but also the 4283 difference in the provisional vote count......not looking good at all....

[ahyums]

14. I think in terms of winning this organically ie. if there really was no

foul play which the recount could determine, this is pretty much over. It's now all down to whether there was fraud or gross machine or tabulation error.

[CementDude]

9. I did some analysis last week...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x56975#57099

Basically, I expect Kerry to come out with about a 30-40K net gain, best case scenario, knocking the lead down to around 90,000 for the Repub.

[righteous1]

10. Need to

get the overall lead under 100000. Believe that the recount will not happen unless the final totals are under that number

[CementDude]

12. It's gonna be close, but it's possible...

However, a lot has to go right for Kerry.

That said, it's not exactly encouraging that 1/3 of the Cuyahoga ballots have been tossed. Also, it seems that there are still a good amount of Repub. provisionals out there. I'll be interested in seeing how the final provisional count breaks.

[ahyums]

13. I don't think the numbers have any bearing on whether there is a recount

unless it gets really close, under 25k or something, in which case there would be an automatic recount. It would obviously help in the court of public opinion however if the count did get a bit closer.

[CementDude]

15. I think the 90K figure is critical..

If the vote difference gets into that territory, then one could argue that the 90K "spoiled" ballots (where no votes registered, or more than one vote for pres) could come into play.

Of course it's a loooooooong shot. But if you want to make a good recount argument, the lead has to get trimmed down to that area.

[righteous1]

16. Yes

Those are my thoughts as well

[bemis12]

31. But...

.... you were using 80% Kerry votes in Dem counties and 48% Kerry votes in Repug counties.

That's not very realistic. If we were able to do that, it would be the Repugs trying to count up some more votes.

[righteous1]

103. point well taken

[righteous1]

223. bump

[SittingInTheMiddle]

11. Not promising.

Hmmm...with a 78% acceptance rate, that means ~ 27,000 provisionals have been counted, and we're looking at roughly the same 13x,000 vote difference as election night. :P (<- Edit: That was supposed to be a disgusted tongue sticking out. Looks far too happy)

(gained 4000 in Gahanna, lost 4000 on provisionals)

If there were ~155,000 originally, that's ~ 120,000 countable, which means there's only 93,000 left to count.

My guess? When the provisionals are done, we'll close the gap by 10-20 thousand, max.

[MallRat]

17. 60% of accepted provisionals are going to BUSH? You've got to be kidding.

I thought provisional ballots were handed out in much greater numbers in urban centers, rather than rural/suburban communities. No?

If so, the spoilage rate among Kerry provisionals must be mind-boggling.

-MR

[righteous1]

18. 20%

Still only 20% completed and almost all in smaller rural "Bush" counties

[paula777]

21. I hope you are right ... my hope is beggining to fade

[mirandapriestly]

20. Doesn't sound right n/t

[righteous1]

22. Math

16767 + 12005 = 28772 div into 16767 = 58.3%

[mirandapriestly]

23. I meant it doesn't sound right that provisionals would mostly be

for Bush. I think they must have destroyed a lot of Kerry ballots

[righteous1]

24. Less by %

Actually Bush took these counties that have been counted by a bit better % than he's taking the provisionals. 61 -38 as opposed to 58- 41 for the provisionals

[righteous1]

19. Latest

Bush + 16767 Kerry + 12005 48/88 reporting

[mzmolly]

25. Linky?

;)

[mirandapriestly]

26. now it says

Note: only 50 of 88 counties have reported.

Current % of provisionals being counted: 87%

Current "additional" vote count:
Bush +17,700
Kerry +13,694

Please note, most of the largest counties have still not reported.

[ZRB]

27. All Kerry has to do

Is get every other provisional vote, and he'll be fine.

[zann725]

36. And remember, BBV has a big announcment later today!

n/t:)

[mzmolly]

33. Right ... depends on which counties are reporting

:hi:

Though I never expected Kerry to pull out a win from the Provisionals.

[righteous1]

164. kick

[MARALE]

28. What is wrong with this?

Auglaize Co:

* According to elections officials, 573 provisional ballots were okayed out of 650 cast. The results are Bush +575, Kerry +171


Off of that website, not computing to me...

[righteous1]

30. Totals include

oversees absantee ballots also

[ahyums]

29. sounds to me like Kerry is down a pretty consistent 4000 if it does stay

close to or similar to the actual results, its going to undercut much of faith that anything is going to change with a recount because it would to a certain extent validate the actual on the night results

[ElementaryPenguin]

34. 20,000 out of 155,000??? This means NOTHING!!!

:puke:

[ahyums]

35. it's more like 30,000 now and it's from 120,000, I hope you're right but

for this to turn around now to something even half way positive the news from the big counties has to be very very good

[IAMREALITY]

37. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Right there with ya Elementary, but unfortunately we have SCREAMED that out a billion friggin times already but those prone to weakness and depression still choose the poor us, they are favoring Bush positions.

For Gods sake, these are the counts coming in from the Repub precincts, there are like 100,000 more to go, most from Dem precincts. PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE PEOPLE, GET A GRIP!!!!!

[ahyums]

38. 85,000 or so, and the problem is if you look at the election night

posts they were saying exactly the same sort of thing, and look how that turned out. This could still go well in terms of the provisionals, but my hopes are a lot less now than when they started counting them.

[righteous1]

227. bump

[CementDude]

39. OK, for a dose of reality...

IAMREALITY,

Let's say you're right.

Repub is getting a 60%-40% split in his counties.

In order for Kerry to make significant gains, he'll need what percentage in Dem counties?

80%-20%?

90%-10%?

100% (Every last vote?)

Please give me something tangible rather than yelling at me to "Get a Grip!".

[pointsoflight]

48. If you want reality...

...you need to accept that there's no way the provisionals are gonna do it. I still think that once the precincts from the larger cities start coming in, the provisionals will heavily favor Kerry. But we're not going to completely close the gap with the provisionals. The numbers just aren't there. Even when you add in spoiled ballots, it's not very likely that Kerry will take the lead. IF what you're hoping for is that Kerry will take the lead in Ohio, then you have to hope that Kerry will do well with the remaining provisionals and with the spoiled ballots, plus the audit will uncover some problems/glitches/miscounts that give him still more votes.

To me, the counting of ballots is important for potentially exposing the problems that occurred in the state (especially tampering, if it occurred). If Kerry comes out ahead in the process, that's just an added bonus. But at the very least, we MUST expose the problems and force change in the way elections are run.

[googly]

95. Kerry campaign agreed with your hypothesis, hence they conceded

[saddemocrat]

40. hey there

I get so sick of people around here calling anyone with doubts after results come in NOT going our way "prone to weakness and depression"

How about critical thinking around here?

If someone asks a question or seems a bit bothered by reports coming in that are not favorable to our position, why not simply say "the counts are coming in from republican precincts..its' not over yet, folks".

That would help to

1. provide encouraging news

2. keep people coming back here.


Is the DU a place where you basically tote the party line and don't ask questions or you can just leave?

How does that make us any different than the neocons then?

[righteous1]

43. Agreed

Ideally these would be breaking 60/40 Kerry in these republican counties. But that was only a hope, convetional wisdom said that they usually break about as the general. Presently they are breaking 58/41 which is just a tad better for JK in these counties than the general

[IAMREALITY]

46. Weakness

Think what you will, but seeing a higher tally for the shrub when only a small margin of precincts have reported, and out of those that reported were repub strongholds, to hang your head with the thoughts "ohh, I'm depressed again, this doesn't look good, this isn't gonna work, wah wah poor us, wah" is weak. Period.

And to answer the post above, I nor many have ever declared that the provisionals will be the catalyst for overturning the election, as that would've been foolish hope. Our hope is that it can substantially cut the margin, if not even by half (which would be huge). That is very much still in play and absolutely NO, NONE, NADA, ZIP, ZERO conclusion or even attitude change is warranted this early in the counting process.

[saddemocrat]

67. "ohh, I'm depressed again, this doesn't look good, this isn't gonna work,

I haven't actually heard anyone say that. What an interesting spin on opinions that may be different from yours.

Saying "hmmm, the provisional counts don't seem to be falling in as we had hoped, we need to reconsider this" isn't the same thing as saying waah, boohoo, poor us.

We need to remain clear-headed as we move forward. If we fail to be self-critical then we will be called fanatics and will lose credibility to outsiders....that is strength, not weakness.

[Name removed]

68. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ahyums]

76. speaking for myself, don't get me wrong I still think every avenue should

be pursued and there is still a chance of it working out, if you see my post below you will see that I modified my initially down attitude to a certain extent, nevertheless it is undeniable that my hopes are lower than they were before the provisional counting started.

[liberal al zib]

70. You need

to chill out.

[IAMREALITY]

79. Excuse Me?

If you are going to reply then how bout adding something with a little more substance. I was not being overly agressive, just factual. We are all hanging by a thread these days, and need as little depressing weak time to give up talk as possible. My post was to reinforce the ideals that we must find the resolve to keep going, and most definitely should not be so down this early in the count game.

So anyway, unless you are against that and think we should all be whining and feeling sorry for ourselves this early in the game, your 'chill out' post is unwarranted and frankly stupid.

:eyes:

[liberal al zib]

80. Take it

easy.
In life people need to face reality no matter how difficult it is, or they will be crushed by reality itself.

[IAMREALITY]

81. So I see that

You still have absolutely nothing of substance to add. And for the record I AM REALITY, and REALITY says it is way too early in the count process to start being so damn negative and weak. My message is if ya don't want to fight to win with the team, leave the damn team.....

[saddemocrat]

83. 362 posts

So with 362 posts under your belt you are telling people to leave the DU if they feel any twinge of disappointment at how the vote counts are coming back in?

People (myself included) come here for affirmation. I get excited when things are going well and I feel like I should be able to say I'm disappointed when things aren't going as I hoped without being subject to criticism.

[righteous1]

84. Cmon folks

Let's not eat our own

[IAMREALITY]

87. True Righteous

:pals:

[IAMREALITY]

85. Saddemocrat Who Asked You

No, I am not saying to leave DU :eyes:

I am saying that what we all need more than anything right now is unity, to stand up as one in the facce of adversity and put on a positive front at all costs. We all need collective strength, and it is hard for all of us to hang in there right now. But that is no excuse for premature negativity and weakness, period. So what I meant was this, if you need an analogy... If you are on a hockey team, and it is the Stanley Cup Finals and you are only down by a goal, what would you rather, some teammates crying out wahhhh, it looks bad, we can't overcome this? Or would you rather the other teammates speak up and say 'hey, shut your weak ass mouth, WE ARE GONNA WIN THIS THING!!' If your teammate responded with 'no, I don't think we can win, it is too hard, we just can't do it' would you still want that player on the team? Wouldn't it be your duty as a team player to look that player in the eyes and say "Hey, we can do this, stand with us and fight, but if you can't, go join another fucking team???"

There are a ton of forums on DU. Another poster (forget which) said it best earlier when he proclaimed something along the lines of 'hey, do we go into the astrology room and say that astrology is bullshit etc...?" His point was right on the nose.

[Name removed]

106. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[noclonyofthechimp]

153. Agreed!

[WiseFawn]

41. Not Understanding...

We know the counting and voting did not go right, why should expect the provisionals to suddenly be done right? If they are going to cheat, they are going to cheat on these in particular. These are the people they did not want to vote to begin with, that is why they had to vote provisional!

[ahyums]

42. yes but there are added levels of scrutiny with provisionals, most

election boards are bipartisan as far as I am aware, and there are no electronics to get in the way one way or another these are pure hand counts.

[Stand and Fight]

47. No, not Bipartisan

When you have elections officials who have been the heads or co-chairs of the Republican party or Bush-Cheney re-election committee, things are FAR from bipartisan.

[ahyums]

52. but I think there are democrats on those boards as well

[Stand and Fight]

57. Really?

There may well be Democrats on those boards, but the only dissenters I've heard who are opposed to a recount are Republicans. Not to mention the hundreds of sworn statements that mention election day hanky panky in Ohio. Only Republicans have complained so far, so why are Democrats on the election boards being so silent? Oh yeah, what about the fact that the OHIO DEMOCRATIC PARTY is behind grass roots efforts to recount?!?

[righteous1]

45. More difficult

It is much tougher to fraud these sort of counts, alot more bipartisan eyes watching and easy to catch shenanigans

[Stand and Fight]

49. Scrutiny

No, the real bipartisan scrutiny will come during the recount. Don't forget about the recount people. It is happening because there is reason to believe that not all is well in O-HI-O.

[righteous1]

50. Latest: 52/88 Bush + 18705 Kerry + 14478

[googly]

99. The provisional ballots are STRICTLY PAPER..no electronics

involved there for any mysterious vote fraud.

[Stand and Fight]

44. Too early to tell

I think we all have to be patient, for it is too early to tell at this point. Those who are reporting the very valid fact that a lot of these current results are from Republican strongholds have a point -- think about it, our man has garnied nearly 10,000 votes and that's pretty good considering where the results are coming from. Either way, it is most definitely too early to tell, and let's not forget over- under-votes and absentee ballots. Then we have the recount that will happen no matter what, and it seems to me that once spoilage is accounted for the gap will close somewhat. Will it close enough to throw the election? I don't know, but we'd better fight like hell to ensure that the counting is legitimate, and with all the irregularities that have popped up thusfar I don't trust the numbers being report. Keep the faith people, BELIEVE.

[ahyums]

51. it would be interesting to do a statistical percentage based analysis if

that were possible which I don't think it is because this is the first election where provisionals as to what the provisional results have to say about the general ones. I've been pretty negative about these because I've been thinking even if they do go for Kerry they still seem to be pretty close to the results on election night and that, therefore undermines the whole fraud/mistake argument. But actually after all considering how close Ohio was a 3% swing in the results would be more than enough to change the results on the total level, so maybe provisional only going say 60-40 to Kerry doesn't prove a thing.

[Riceman1974]

53. The best Kerry can do

Is take 55% of the provisional ballots. Yes the big Dem counties haven't reported yet, but they're disallowing a higher percentage in the big counties (33% in Cuyahoga and 50% in Lucas). Contrary to popular belief, Kerry will not take those Dem counties 80-20. They'll reflect the vote % on Nov. 2, give or take 2-3 points, just like every county that has reported has already shown. Expect Kerry to take those counties 2-1, maybe 70-30 tops. If 125,000 ballots are counted across the state (assuming 20% void rate), and Kerry takes 55%, he picks up only 12,500 votes.

Unless there is proof of fraud(real proof, not statisical estimates based on voting patterns), Kerry lost Ohio, recount or no recount.

[Name removed]

55. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mdb]

54. Precincts Reporting: 6.80%

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/RaceDetail.aspx?race=PP

I don't exactly know what is meant when on the site they are saying "Note: only 50 of 88 counties have reported". Because I see from the state of Ohio site 15 of 88 counties have reported 100%. What is meant by reported?

[righteous1]

56. Slow to report @ sos

The link above has the most up to date totals

[righteous1]

58. Latest 55/88 Bush + 23086 Kerry + 17294 i ncludes Delaware,Ashland & Bu

[New Earth]

59. do these numbers include the strongest democratic precincts?

[righteous1]

61. NO

The stongest county (Cuyohoga) is still out. These are mostly rural republican counties with the exception of Mahoning it is a large county that went for JK by 2-1 85000-45000

[bemis12]

60. Where do you get this info? n/t

[righteous1]

63. Mostly from the link above

The last three counties from the individual county pages, they should be showing up on the above link shortly

[bemis12]

65. The link above?

http://www.ohvotesuppression.blogspot.com/

You mean that link? Thanks!


*edit for typo*

[righteous1]

66. Correct

[bunny planet]

62. How many votes, not percentage does Kerry have to be under to

trigger an automatic recount, not the recount the Greens are asking for?

[righteous1]

64. Roughly 26000 for a mandatory state recount (.5%)

[liberal al zib]

71. In fact for a mandatory recount

it is 0.25% of the total vote in Ohio and this is approximately 14000 vote in this 2004 election.

[righteous1]

72. I stand corrected

however, ~26,000 votes is correct

[bemis12]

74. I'm afraid not :-(

At .25% it's around 14,000 votes. The 26,000 votes was based on the erroneous 1/2% number.

[righteous1]

75. Yep....right again

[bemis12]

73. Holy cow- you're right- .25%

I was ready to call you on it, thinking it was 1/2%. But the code does indicate .25% for statwide elections. :-(

http://onlinedocs.andersonpublishing.com/oh/lpExt.dll?f=templates&fn=main-h.htm&cp=PORC

Title XXXV § 3515.011

The widely quoted 1/2% is only for county and district elections.

[righteous1]

69. Latest: 57/88 Bush +26752 Kerry +22062

[ZRB]

77. I'm sorry

But how can anyone see these numbers and NOT be pessimistic? We needed the provisionals to shave off at least 70,000 votes for the recount to give Kerry any chance. There is no chance of that happening now. Unless the recounts show massive fraud, this election is over.

[bemis12]

78. I still think

Kerry will shave into the * lead a bit, based on the counties remaining. Best guess- around 10,000.

The provisionals were never going to be a huge help. Most the thinking people could see that. Our real issue is the fraud.

[righteous1]

82. Best guess

I would say that's a pretty accurate guess....10-15000

[mdb]

86. What about the new rule on provisional ballots that came in yellow packets

and are being thrown out? Are they protesting this?

http://www.ilcaonline.org/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1003&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0

Bob Fitrakis, The Free Press

Are the provisional ballots in Ohio being thrown out?

A new rule for counting provisional ballots in Cuyahoga County, Ohio was implemented on Tuesday, November 9 at approximately 2:30 in the afternoon, according to election observer Victoria Lovegren.

The new ruling in Cuyahoga County mandates that provisional ballots in yellow packets must be “Rejected” if there is no “date of birth” on the packet. The Free Press obtained copies of the original “Provisional Verification Procedure” from Cuyahoga County which stated “Date of birth is not mandatory and should not reject a provisional ballot.” The original procedure required the voter’s name, address and a signature that matched the signature in the county’s database.

Lovegren described the clerks as “kind of disturbed” after the new ruling came down. She said that one of the clerks told her, “This is new. This just came down. They just changed it in the last thirty minutes.” According to Lovegren, 80 yellow-jacketed provisional ballots piled up in the hour and 45 minutes she observed. By Lovegren’s tally, three provisional ballots were rejected because the registered voters’ registration had been “cancelled.” The rest, she said, were being discarded because of no date of birth.

In 2000, an estimated 9% of Ohio’s provisional ballots were rejected and not counted, according to Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell. Many election observers are predicting the number will be much higher this year due to directives from Blackwell’s office.

[ahyums]

88. I think Blackwell backed down on that... can't say I'm sure though

- on another point how many Democratic counties have reported now and which are the big ones which would be expected to favor Kerry still to report?

[righteous1]

89. The main big ones left are Cuyohoga, Lucas Franklin andSummit

[righteous1]

91. About 53000 provisionals in these 4 counties

Cuyohoga -35% Lucas - 50% Summit -20% Franklin no indication

[consciousobjector]

90. That was changed Nov 15th...

Posted this as soon as I got it, but here it is again...

Susan,

There is not new ruling in Cuyahoga or any other county. I think someone just wants to start something to get everyone riled up. See below for true information:


No registration is main reason provisional ballots rejected

By MARK WILLIAMS
The Associated Press
11/15/2004, 6:50 p.m. ET


COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Most of the presidential election provisional ballots rejected so far came from people not registered to vote, election officials said on Monday.

Those people typically thought they were registered to vote in another county or another address, officials said.

Other reasons some of the 155,337 ballots were rejected included missing information such as addresses or signatures and people voting in precincts where they do not live.

"Some people thought because they had changed their mailing address at the post office, or had changed their utilities, that they had done everything necessary to be eligible to vote," said Nancy Moore, deputy director of the Belmont County Board of Elections in eastern Ohio. "They still have to change their address at the board of elections. We're not mindreaders."

"They swear up and down they're registered to vote and they're not," said Bill Thompson, deputy elections director in Pike County.

Unofficial vote totals show President Bush beating Democrat John Kerry by 136,000 votes in Ohio and Kerry has conceded there aren't enough outstanding votes to swing the state his way.

Some people, though, said they were holding out hope until all votes were counted. Lawyers with Kerry's campaign were in Ohio to check into voters' concerns about ballots, but said they weren't trying to challenge the election.

Most of Ohio's 88 counties are continuing the process of verifying the ballots cast by people who said they were registered but whose names did not appear on rolls on Election Day.

Of the 11 counties that have completed checking ballots, 81 percent, or 4,277 out of 5,310 ballots, are valid, according to a survey Monday by The Associated Press. Most of the counties are in rural areas.

Other counties that have completed partial tallies reported that most of the provisional ballots were being counted. In 2000, about 87 percent of provisional ballots were counted.

This year, Belmont County rejected 42 percent of the 1,067 provisional votes cast while other counties that completed their count showed percentages topping 90 percent.

Cuyahoga County, where Cleveland is located, has processed 40 percent, or 9,719 votes, of its 24,788 provisional ballots and rejected a third, according to a board tally. Most are being rejected because the voters were not registered.

In Montgomery County, 6,125 of the 8,000 provisional ballots processed so far are valid. Of the 1,875 invalid ballots, more than 1,000 were rejected because the people were not registered and 685 were rejected because voters went to the wrong precinct, according to the board.

The board still has to count 1,227 ballots.

Before the election, Democrats lost a court appeal seeking to allow people to cast provisional ballots in precincts where they do not live.

Votes cast in the wrong precinct made up the smallest portion of rejected ballots in many counties, which election officials attributed to poll workers directing people to correct voting places, public education campaigns and heightened media attention about provisional voting regulations.

"People were aware of the provisional ballots and they really tried to get in the correct precinct," said Janet Brenneman, director of Delaware County Board of Elections.

The counties have until Dec. 1 to complete their final count.

A third party was already promising to ask for a recount of the Ohio vote.

Green Party candidate David Cobb said on Monday that the party has raised the $113,600 needed to ask for the recount.

Cobb and Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik have said they were concerned about reports of problems in Ohio's voting process.

Cobb must make his request to all the county election boards. The count cannot begin until the vote is officially certified, which can happen as soon as Dec. 3, said Carlo LoParo, spokesman for Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell.

The thing we have to remember is that in a recount (which has been asked for by the Green and Libertarian parties), discarded ballots can be challenged. The most outrageous part of the provisional ballot law SS Blackwell instituted was that a voter had to cast a provisional in their own precinct...sounds reasonable (sort of) until you realize that in some areas, several precincts were housed in the same building...if you went to the wrong table, you were forced to vote provisionally instead of being directed to the proper table for your precinct...then your vote was thrown out for not being cast in your precinct! Unacceptable

[mtnester]

92. HOW can Knox county provisionals go to Bush? This is where the Kenyon

College kids stood until 4:00 AM to vote and most of them provisionally because they ran out of paper ballots almost first thing in the morning and the rest of them are (now that they have been on campus more than 30 days) legally residing in Knox County, but not on their rolls, but registered to vote in Ohio. Most of the college staff even had to vote that way.

You all saw the lines of these kids waiting 12 hours to vote!

It makes NO sense I tell you!

[righteous1]

93. hmmmmmm,nothing indicates a high "throw out" either

[ahyums]

94. knox has reported already? if you're sure about that then someone should

really look into provisionals and what can be done to them (or it could of course mean, simply, that Bush got more votes but I still really have my doubts about that)

[GetTheRightVote]

97. Where Justice is served there is always hope

You must have faith that justice will be served, it is obvious to all that the vote was suppressed in a mastive force on the part of Sec. Blackwell and his party, the Republicans. This was their mandate for 2004. You do not need to be a brain surgeon to know it. Kerry would have easily carried the state of Ohio except for the deceitful why voters were kept from voting in the first place. Ohio is Florida this year and Florida is still Florida, same stuff, different election. We do not live in a Democracy if this is allowed to continue and without a Democracy we can make of this country whatever we please similiar to our fore fathers who did not stand back for a tryant either, life without liberty is a meaningless existence.

[righteous1]

98. Knox B +404 K +215

[bemis12]

96. Kenyon only HAS 1,500 students

And only a small percent of those would have been in line, as compared to the general population. That's a heavily red county.

[ahyums]

101. ah right that's that explained then

[mtnester]

102. I was speaking of strictly provisional updates

not the county as a whole.

[bemis12]

104. And

Beings we're into projections and stats:

Assuming an unrealistic 100% voter turnout for these students, 1 in 25 voters was a Kenyon student.

So of the 600 provisional ballots, 24 would be Kenyon students. 24.

[righteous1]

100. Latest 58/88 Bush + 27198 Kerry + 22393

[badc0der]

105. results look odd to me

I would expect that the provisional vote count should reflect the machine totals. On average voters who cast provisional ballots were 2.5% more likely to vote for Kerry than voters who did not, in some cases the difference was more than 9% which is definitely not what I would expect if there was no foul play.
here is a chart that illustrates this.

[ahyums]

107. not necessarily because we always expected the provisionals to break for

Kerry since it was likely that more potential Democrat voters were challenged, in fact I was initially(and still am to an extent) down, because they weren't breaking enough for Kerry, not necessarily because I expected Kerry to overturn the result through them and the spoiled ballot but because a big break to Kerry would make it more likely that the election night count was flawed. Having thought about that it doesn't need to follow that a huge break to Kerry is required because after all on the real count a 2% swing would be enough to shift it, but it would certainly have helped me to believe prior to the recount. As it stands my personal expectations for anything dramatic changing in the recount are around 40/60 based on everything I've read and know and I consider that to be on the optimistic side, but having said that, that means that providing the recount does go ahead I think there is a 40/60 chance of Kerry being president which is very high really. So we'll see what happens I suppose.

[badc0der]

108. Still don't buy that

The notion that provisional ballots would break for Kerry has never made much sense to me and it still doesn't. I haven't heard stories about challengers being effective at challenging voters and while that certainly doesn't mean anything I would expect there to be some noise if they were challenging only registered democrats. The consensus at my office, and what I still believe, is that the purpose of challengers was to slow down the voting process and create longer lines at the polling place in democratic areas.

[righteous1]

109. Recount not looking great

According to state law the $100,000is only a deposit for a recount. The total tab will be close to 1.5 million

[righteous1]

110. The overal state lead needs to be less than 93,000

Otherwise it takes the undervotes and overvotes (spoiled ballots) out of play. If the total of these cannot overtake Bush's lead, it makes the recount academic

[righteous1]

111. We need to get this recount going!!

After doing some research i determined that the Ohio tally does not have to be certified untill Dec 3rd. The Vote is electors are officially committed on Dec 7th. This is the drop dead date. Per Gore vs Bush (Scotus) any count after that date have no "legal effect". Ohio law states that they can take up to 5 days to set up the recount. That puts the start date @ Dec 8th. Too late to have any LEGAL EFFECT!!

[rinsd]

112. Latest...Bush + 28,195, Kerry + 23,043 (10am PST 11/24/04)

http://www.ohvotesuppression.blogspot.com/

[righteous1]

113. How many counties is that?

[bemis12]

114. 61 of 88 counties

My projections are showing us with no more than a 5,000-6,000 vote gain, and it's possible we will lose ground.

[rinsd]

115. Info:

Summary of provisional ballots count - UPDATED 11/24/04
Note: 61 of 88 counties have reported.

Current % of provisionals being counted: 83%

Current "additional" vote count:
Bush +28,195
Kerry +23,043
Please note, most of the largest counties have still not reported.

[righteous1]

116. TY

[righteous1]

191. kick

[righteous1]

117. Jeeez More Crappy news

A Judge in Ohio just issued a temporary restraining order to stop any recount efforts by the Green party etc, either before or AFTER the certification,

[liberal al zib]

118. Really

[righteous1]

119. 12:14ET 64/88 Bush + 29285 Kerry + 23947

[rinsd]

120. New Update (1pm PST)

Summary of provisional ballots count - UPDATED 11/24/04
Note: 64 of 88 counties have reported.

Current % of provisionals being counted: 79%

Current "additional" vote count:
Bush +29,285
Kerry +23,947
Please note, most of the largest counties have still not reported.

[hypospeaks]

121. Ohio provisional ballot updates on hold for now

Hi. We are the ones who run the Ohio Voter Suppression News blog that these updates have been coming from. Thanks to whoever has been posting the latest data here.

We wanted to let you know that our 3 pm 11/24 update will probably be the final update until next Monday. Pike County is still counting their provisionals as of 4:30 pm, but we anticipate they will close their offices through Monday immediately following the end of their count. We also believe Lorain County is counting this afternoon, but we couldn't get anyone to give us an official answer and now their offices are closed.

We have tried to keep our data accurate by actually talking to each Board of Election directly. However, it may be that some of the local newspapers pick up news on the counts in the remaining counties over the next few days. If so, we will post this info when it becomes available to us.

Currently Kerry is running about 3.5% better than in the Nov. 2 totals. But, as others have noted, it appears that he will not be able to pick up a significant amount of votes even with the larger counties, assuming they break somewhere close to the Nov. 2 ratio.

[bemis12]

122. Thank you for your good work

It's all been very informative. Have a great Thanksgiving with those you love!

[righteous1]

123. Thanks for a great site

I have been posting the updates from your site and would like to express my appreciation for the timliness and accuracy of your work. Thanks and a hat tip for a job very well done

[hypospeaks]

124. We are glad that people have been using the site

We have been getting about 2,000 visits per day recently. Unfortunately, many of them (still a minority) are coming from the Freepers and other Bush supporters who are apparently very nervous about what the provisional count would show.

The blog, itself, was actually a group effort by some of the Ohio bloggers that we started just a few days before the elections. It was the first time we have tried to do something jointly.

Unfortunately, we have been badly neglecting our main blog, Hypothetically Speaking to do Voter Suppression News. We will begin transitioning back to that once we have a better handle on whether there will be a substantive investigation and/or recount.

When we started the blog, we were the only ones trying to systematically follow what was going on with the actual voting. Now it seems DU, Kos, Bob Fitrakis and others are doing a good job (probably better) job of keeping track of the different issues. We are itching to go back to focusing on broader political issues in Ohio (such as looming $5 billion state budget shortfall, high unemployment, pseudo tax reform, lousy reporting by lazy journalists, etc.)

[Yupster]

125. Appreciate your site hypo

and Righteous for getting it to us. I've been looking in a couple times a day.

[NH_Lib]

127. Ohio Provisional Vote is Not

Going to gain us much. Based on the county returns posted to date it looks like at the end of it all * is still going to lead by about 130,000 votes. Even a recount is not going to help, I'M Afraid.

[righteous1]

128. Latest : 65/88 Bush + 36,050 Kerry + 32490 77% valid n/t

[proudtobeadem]

129. Are they hand counted or do they just run them through the machine?

[righteous1]

130. hand counted provisional and oversea absantee ballots n/t

[mackdaddy]

131. I don't think so in Punch Card Counties

I am not certain, but I think the counts are done on the punch card reader in punch card counties. Punch cards and paper clips are sent to the absentee voters to punch out the correct chad by hand. It was confusing and had a second set of numbering arrows in addition to the chad numbers and my Mom screwed hers up the first time and had to go to her boe to get a replacement punch-card to correct. (Yet another way to "accidentally" vote for Bush)

Provisionals were don on the punch card machine, but put into special individual envelopes to be verified later

The county BOE people of course verify the validity of the voter absentee or provisional by hand before aggregating the ballots for the card reader.

That is what I understood the process was at our BOE here in Hocking County (Logan) Ohio when I visited them last week.

Not sure how they are done in the Electronic Voting Counties.

[berniew1]

132. Election Sup. reporting Bush counties to make recount appear unnecessary

The Supervisor of Elections is only reporting the Bush counties first to make the recount appear unnecessary. They are also controlling the process of which provisionals to count in favor of Repubs, not counting most of Dem provisionals; Dems should have objected to biased count system sooner; Election officials are also obstructing the vote count and recount processes to run out the time and avoid a real vote recount.

[berniew1]

133. Ohio Election Officials Obstructing Vote count to run out time on recount

Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.

As of election night there were 155,428 provisional ballots still to be counted in Ohio. The eagerly awaited Ohio recount cannot possibly begin until after the votes are counted for the first time.

It is now Friday, November 26, 2004. Twenty-four days have passed since the presidential election. There are 88 counties in Ohio. To my knowledge, only 13 have examined their provisional ballots, counted them, and posted the results on their websites. The 13
counties are: Ashland, Brown, Butler, Clinton, Geauga, Greene, Hancock, Montgomery, Pickaway, Preble, Tuscarawas, Union, and Warren.

Altogether, there were 23,873 provisional ballots issued in these 13 counties, or 15.36% of the
statewide total. At this rate, it would take five months to count them all. This strikes me as a
deliberate stalling tactic to delay the Ohio recount until after the electoral college meets in December.

Here are the unofficial results in the 13 counties, with the sum totals compared with those reported on election night, so as to compute the net gains:


ELECTION RESULTS AFTER COUNTING PROVISIONAL BALLOTS

County Bush Kerry Others Ballots Not Cast Counted

Ashland 16,171 8,555 234 25,739 779
Brown 12,647 7,140 105 20,281 389
Butler 109,866 56,234 696 168,976 2,180
Clinton 12,938 5,417 58 18,674 261
Geauga 29,974 19,588 205 51,286 1,519
Greene 48,377 30,530 361 80,602 1,334
Hancock 25,101 10,343 140 35,926 342
Montgomery 138,361 142,977 1,205 287,635 5,092
Pickaway 14,160 8,578 123 23,132 271
Preble 13,733 7,274 119 21,559 433
Tuscarawas 23,825 18,854 260 43,760 821
Union 15,869 6,665 96 22,911 281
Warren 68,035 26,043 337 95,512 1,097

Bush Kerry Others

Total 529,057 60.04% 348,198 39.51% 3,939 0.45%
Earlier 516,376 60.18% 337,902 39.38% 3,753 0.44%
Net Gain 12,681 54.75% 10,296 44.45% 186 0.80%

John F. Kerry is actually gaining on George W. Bush as the counting of provisional ballots proceeds. In counties that Kerry lost by 20.8% on election night, he is losing by only 10.3% among the provisional ballots counted. In the 75 counties yet to be heard from, Kerry actually held a lead on election night:

ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS

Bush Kerry Others

88 counties 2,796,147 2,659,664 25,993
13 counted 516,376 337,902 3,753
75 uncounted 2,279,771 2,321,762 22,240


There are 208,696 uncounted ballots in these 75 counties, including 131,555 provisional ballots, and 77,141 regular ballots, mostly punch cards, which will have to be examined by hand during the recount. For a county by county breakdown of the uncounted votes,
read “JOHN KERRY CONCEDED TOO SOON” at

http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/uncounted.htm

Half of these uncounted votes, 104,748 (50.19%) are in 9 counties, 8 of which were won by John Kerry.

http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/summary.htm

There are also 14,799 ballots still uncounted in the other 13 counties, according to the table above. No wonder Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell is trying to slow down the counting of provisional ballots, and trying to delay the recount until after he certifies the winner. There needs to be a firestorm of protest to cause him to recuse himself, or a restraining order issued by the courts.

[New Earth]

134. bernie you look familiar

aren't you from the freepress forums? i am waking believing running on there.

and i think you are absolutely right about the Ohio provisional count.

[righteous1]

135. Latest info @

http://www.ohvotesuppression.blogspot.com

[texpatriot2004]

137. Kick

[texpatriot2004]

138. Kick

[texpatriot2004]

139. Kick

[righteous1]

163. kick

[Lisabtrucking]

140. The numbers they are giving don't add up to what they are saying?

Those numbers ain't adding up to what they are saying in that paper.
add bush and Kerry then look at how many they said were counted.
looks funny to me anyone know why the numbers don't add up to the total?

[Terre]

148. I've been watching those numbers also

Been a lurker for awhile, and thought I'd post with an unusual number regarding the provisional counts as taken from the Ohio Voter Suppression News website.

Many of the vote totals for Bush and Kerry don't add up to the provisional ballots cast that have been indicated. I'm not quite sure what the difference is. I think they might be adding in late absentee/overseas votes. I need a little more time to "digest" some of these numbers.

Anyway, this is regarding Hamilton County that went for Bush by a 12% margin in 2000, and a then only by a 6% margin in 2004. However, if you look at the provisional tallys from the above website, it shows that 6,765 went for Bush, but 8,543 for Kerry. It's the ONLY county I've notice so far that "switched" sides in the provisional count.

Don't you think that's a bit strange?

[righteous1]

149. strange or not, it's good news n/t

[righteous1]

165. kick

[Lisabtrucking]

141. 107 accepted, bush 300, kerry 153?

Whats going on here? in wayandot co 107 ballots accepted out of 138, but bush got 300 and kerry got 153, and mahoning 2351 out of 2700 accepted bush got 744 kerry 1569 thats a total of 2313 what happen to the other 38 votes that were accepted its like that with almost all the countys reporting. I find a stinky rat here.

[liberal al zib]

142. They are including

late absentee and overseas absentee ballots in these numbers, not just provisional ballots.

[Lisabtrucking]

143. Were does it say that? n/t

[liberal al zib]

144. In this link

"Ohio voter suppression" website you notice that many counties refer to counting provisional ballots and late/overseas absentee ballots in the numbers that they provided. This county although not explicitly mentioning late/overseas absentee ballots, it is including these type of ballots in the number they provided to Ohio voter suppression website.

[Lisabtrucking]

145. Current % of provisionals being counted: 77% is all it say's

I don't see it, were does it say overseas and other votes. What it says is Current % of provisionals being counted: 77%

[Lisabtrucking]

146. If that is the case then they should say it. n/t

[righteous1]

147. No

77% is the validity rate of the provisionals, in other words 23% are being tossed out for any number of reasons

[righteous1]

173. bump

[righteous1]

210. kick

[Yupster]

150. bump

I'd like to see this as it updates, so a little bump.

[righteous1]

151. I just checked , nothing new as of 11:00AM ET

[Yupster]

154. This is just taking too long

It shouldn't take a county weeks to count ballots, even thousands of them.

[righteous1]

155. Well one things for sure

They have to have them done by Fri 3rd, that's the deadline

[righteous1]

156. Latest 71/88 Bush + 39,217 Kerry + 35,419 78%Valid n/t

[righteous1]

157. Latest 73/88 Bush + 40181 Kerry + 36363 78% Valid n/t

[DrDebug]

158. Please explain the numbers.

Because it feels like there are many missing.

IIRC there were 155,000 ballots casts.

76544 (=40181+36363) were valid / .78 (very low percentage) = 98133 ballots in total (with only 3/4 counted)

This means that only 63% of the ballots thusfar have been counted. Yet 83% of the counties have been counted. This could mean that the largest counties still haven't reported and only the small and medium sized counties, but somehow I think that once again the number won't add up again... (why don't the numbers ever add up?? Why is only 78% of the ballots acceptable etc. etc.)

[righteous1]

159. That is correct

Several larger counties have yet to report

[rinsd]

161. These are provsional ballots only.....

I believe the count for provisional ballots was more like 135,000.

You may be adding spoiled ballots(ie under or over votes).

But you are correct, the larger counties have yet to be counted.

[Yupster]

166. there are some absentee ballots added in too

That's why some of the counties have totals like of 325 provisional ballots Bush got 200 and Kerry got 225.

[gasperc]

167. and the GOP bitched about provisionals yet they lead in them

hmmm...makes you go hmmmm

why did they fight something that is now turning to their advantage??

[righteous1]

168. Yea a bit odd isn't it n/t

[bemis12]

169. Not likely they'll lead

in them by the time thet're all counted. There's a lot of Kerry votes yet to report.

Although the change will be insignificant, it will be a small plus for Kerry.

[righteous1]

170. see post 162 for best possible scenario

[Yupster]

177. It won't help the GOP in the end

Cleveland and other urban counties not in yet.

For sure not going to be the 80-90 % Kerry vote that some were predicting before the counting started though.

[mod mom]

160. It's not just the provisionals that are of issue...

Have you checked out the freepress.org reports of vote discrepancies in many counties based on margins between Connally and Kerry. There is the issue of Af Am and college dem areas being denied equal treatment under the law. It is a civil rights issue. That's why Rev Jackson is great. Who else would you turn to to support a claim of Civil rights violations. Don't lose hope! the numbers weren't in the provisionals, thats why Kerry conceded-there just wasn't enough. The repugs, were so blantant and arrogant-they thought we would roll over and dive into the Christmas Holiday. Spend our tears away. We can not let this happen, and it is happening. There are many people who worked hard on the campaign, who think we need to focus on the future. Come on, do you really think if we just accept fraud, that we will ever get the youth vote or Af Am vote as active? No, apathy would spread and we would become pod people watching fox tv and never questioning authority. I won't drink the cool-aid. We need to start demanding like our friends in the Ukraine. Please come out and DEMAND A FULL INVESTIGATION OF OUR ELECTION!

[righteous1]

162. Sorry folks but a Kerry win from provisional ballots just became

a mathematical impossiblity. The provisional vote toals are Bush + 40181 Kerry + 36363. This leaves a toal of 39,706 provisional votes outstanding calculating an overall 75% acceptance rate. If JK took 100% of the 39,706 provisionals left and also 100% of the undervotes (93,000) his total p/u would be 132,706 - 3800 (Bush's current provisional vote lead) = 128,906. Bush's current Ohio vote lead (Jan2- 3800) = 133,000-128,906 = 4094 MOV. The only hope rests in a net p/u of votes occuring in a possible recount that could tap additional votes missed by machine counting or computer error including fraud.

[lonestarnot]

171. What about undervotes?

Undervotes + provisionals = ???

[righteous1]

172. If you look at my computation

You will see that the 93,000 undervotes are included in the calculations

[lonestarnot]

174. I see

Have been at it all day and overlooked in a quick read. Thank you.

[righteous1]

237. bump

[liberal al zib]

176. NO!!! Kerry will get

at least 500,000 thousand more votes in a recount, yes that is true a minimum of half a million vote.
Forget about this Florida recount in 2000 where counting 2 million votes twice only netted Gore 600 votes, or this current Washington state recount of over two million vote that netted Gregoire only 100 votes.
Yes forget about these two major recounts and stop posting doom and gloom. Ohio is different, Kerry will get a minimum of half a million extra votes from a recount.

[zann725]

179. Thank you for the positive! There IS too much gloom, I agree.

n/t :kick:

[righteous1]

183. Geeeez

Read the posting thoroughly and be a bit more rational and not so emotional. I said "it is a mathematical impossibility for JK to win by getting enough votes from provisionals and undervotes" This has nothing to do with machine miscounts, electronic malfunctions or fraud

[liberal al zib]

184. NOWAY!!!!

[righteous1]

186. NOWAY what?

[liberal al zib]

187. NOWAY Kerry has lost Ohio.

will get a least one million votes from an Ohio recount.

[righteous1]

188. Geee, I don't think that's what the post states

[bemis12]

189. Wake up!

He's not even talking about a potential recount. Merely the provisional ballots. That part is indisputable now, at least to any person with minor math skills.

[liberal al zib]

190. Are you challenging my Math skills man!!!

1+1=5.

[bemis12]

196. 1+1=5?

Republican alert! :-)

[righteous1]

234. kick

[deleuzian]

175. Great article just posted on Salon about Ohio vote fraud

Greetings from NYC.

I've been reading DU for a while, and just registered to point you to James Galbraith's article posted shortly ago on Salon about the Ohio vote.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2004/11/30/ukraine_election/index.html

Best,
D

[loudsue]

180. Welcome to DU deleuzian!! We appreciate your input!

:hi::toast::beer: Glad you finally signed up! :hi::party::silly:

That's a good article!! Thanks for the link!

:kick:

[deleuzian]

194. Thanks for the welcome, glad to be aboard!

[righteous1]

182. Excuse me, I believe they are referring to the Ukraine

Not meaning there is not plenty in Ohio

[deleuzian]

193. No, actually the article's about Ohio

Take a look, it's a good read.

[righteous1]

197. Read the top part

Those things were all said referring to the Ukraine. Above it says "What if the same criteria was applied to Ohio"

[liberal al zib]

198. Do not mention facts man. Facts are BS.

Ukraine is Ohio and Ohio is Ukraine. OK!!!!!

[deleuzian]

209. The Ukraine stuff was just the lead-in.

Not sure why you're unable to see the whole article, but here's the balance of it, from http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2004/11/30/ukraine_election/index.html:

"But if the Ukraine standard were applied in Ohio -- as it should be -- then the late lamented U.S. election certainly was stolen. In Ohio, the secretary of state in charge of the elections process was co-chairman of the Bush campaign in the state. He obstructed the vote count systematically -- for instance, by demanding that provisional ballots without birth dates on their envelopes be thrown out, even though there is no requirement for that in state law. He also required that provisional ballots be cast in a voter's home precinct, ensuring that there would be no escape from long lines. Republicans fielded thousands of election challengers to Democratic precincts, mainly to try to intimidate black voters and to slow down the voting process. A recount, demanded and paid for by the Green and Libertarian parties, has been stalled in court, so that it won't possibly upset the certification of Ohio's electoral votes.

In Franklin County, Ohio, there was rampant abuse, with voting machines added in Republican precincts and taken away in Democratic ones, as documented by the Columbus Dispatch. The result was a crippling pileup at the polls; many thousands did not vote because they simply could not afford to wait. I witnessed this with my own eyes. And Sen. Lugar could have, too, for much less than the price of airfare to Kiev.

According to an article by Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman: "The man running the show in Franklin County was Board of Elections Director Matt Damschroder, former head of the county's Republican Party ... Damschroder's official records also show that while desperate poll workers called his office throughout the day, at least 125 machines were held back at the opening of the polls and an additional 68 were never deployed. Thus while thousands of inner city voters stood in the rain, were told their cars would be towed, and were then forced to vote in five minutes or less, Damschroder sat on machines that could have significantly sped the process."

These are the established facts. Eyewitness reports of other forms of abuse include malfunctioning voting machines in Youngstown, a mysterious lockdown of the vote count in Warren County and lesser incidents that run into the thousands. And then there are allegations of irregularities in the count -- how solid these are, one does not know. Taken together, are these enough to change the outcome? No one can say. But the same is true in Kiev. And there, allegations by the defeated opposition are taken in good faith, and are quite enough to satisfy international observers and the government of the United States.

So where is the press? Why aren't there more stories on Ohio? Why is there no national pressure for a prompt statewide recount? Why no continuing outcry? Why no demand -- as our friends are making with strong American support in Ukraine -- that the election results in Ohio be set aside and a new vote held? Why has our election, with all its thuggery, been forgotten just three weeks after it occurred?

One reason, of course, is that the U.S. government gives direction in these matters, here at home as well as around the world. And our press, like that in "Putin's Russia," follows suit. Our political leaders, if one could call them that, stay silent and move on. They are terrified of being mocked and bullied by the press.

Another reason is that in Ohio, pissed-off voters are well behaved. They are working the hearings process, the recount process and the unhearing, unseeing courts. In Kiev, by contrast, hundreds of thousands of demonstrators are on the streets, staying there overnight in the bitter cold, bringing the government to a halt and the world to attention.

We'll get our democracy back, one of these days, when the Democratic Party has a mass base and is prepared to use it in the same way.

About the writer
James K. Galbraith is Salon's economics correspondent. He teaches at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin."

[imaginary girl]

178. Auglaize Co uses "fuzzy math": 575+171=573

Auglaize Co:

According to elections officials, 573 provisional ballots were okayed out of 650 cast. The results are Bush +575, Kerry +171

straight from the link provided

[righteous1]

181. The absantee overseas ballots are

a part of there totals even though they dont identify them as such

[Duncan]

192. Link? n/t

[righteous1]

195. top of page

[bones_7672]

185. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) is certified

http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/cuyahoga/110181082962790.xml

"Officially, the count of provisional ballots stands at 16,750 accepted and 8,552, or 34 percent, rejected. Sen. John Kerry widened his margin over President George W. Bush in the county from 217,638 to 226,880 in the official count of the race that made Ohio a nail-biter."

[WI_DEM]

200. Unlike Florida in 2000

it doesn't appear that Ohio will be close enough to change the outcome with provisional ballots. Only hope is a full investigation of voting irregularities which with the state govt. of Ohio in Bush's hip pocket isn't likely to happen. Still, I hope the a statewide recount goes on anyway, just to make sure every vote gets counted.

[righteous1]

201. LATEST Bush +46,847 Kerry + 52126 75/88 78% valid n/t

[kk897]

202. it's interesting that the valid percentage has stayed pretty stable. n/t

[righteous1]

204. Yes it has, look for that to drop

back just a bit to ~ 75% because a big county (Lucas) had less than 50% acceptance

[samrock1]

203. too late

i'm sad :(

[ihavblueblood]

205. kick

My first post!! Kicked! Kerry is in the lead!

[bemis12]

207. Well, yeah, sort of

You do understand that it's just the lead in provisional ballots, right?

Don't go getting tickets to Kerry's inaguration just yet. He's still more than 125,000 votes behind in Ohio.

[ahyums]

215. it's still far far more positive than it was before,

I'll tell you this much, if Bush had 'won' on the provisionals, that would have been it for me in believing anything could change for Kerry, because it would have been pretty solid evidence in my eyes that either there was no fraud, or that fraud was simply too minimal to make a difference in the big picture,as I understand it apart from the tossing out stage with is obviously open to manipulation the provisionals are pretty fairly counted- it would have been just about inconceivable to me that if Bush had garnered more votes in the provisionals, that could possibly have got less in the state wide vote, so I for one am positively thrilled that Kerry is back in the lead, gives me renewed optimism that the recount may yet make a difference.

[ihavblueblood]

206. Could be a model..

If kerry comes out ahead in these by a small margin, this could be the model to show how Ohio would have come out before the fraud.

[righteous1]

208. Unfortunately most folks in the know anticipated

JK would pick up a high % of the provisionals, actually most figured he would garner more than he has

[googly]

211. My projection of final votes: 2,856,952 Bush, 2,753,662 Kerry

78% of provisional votes have been counted so far.
Assuming Kerry gets 75% of the remaining VALID provisional votes,
which is possible since counties still counting are predominantly
democratic, the final totals will be as shown in subject line above.

Final difference = 103,290 votes win by Bush

These are strictly figures as will be shown by Ohio officials.
IT DOES NOT include hacked votes, votes lost due to long lines
or any other mischiefs.

[sabra]

212. Does that include the 4k hacked votes?

[googly]

213. No, it does not. These numbers are what Ohio officials will show.

[righteous1]

216. Heres my take

Hmmmmm might be a bit high. Bushs present lead is 128,000 with 23,000 provisionls yet to count. You figured 75% remaining going to Kerry. That's a bit optimistic being that he got 71% in Cuyahoga his best county. I figure 68% of the remaining because some of the remaining counties are Bush. and also your validity rate is a bit high because some of the counties that has the worst acceptance rates are yet to report ie Lucas less than 50% Lorraine 63% etc.That being said 128,000- 10000 additional JK p/u = 118,000 MARGIN

[googly]

221. Can't argue with your numbers. I was presenting best case scenario.

Thanks for your post.

[bemis12]

214. It's going to be.....

more like 57%. In no county did Kerry pull 75% of the provisionals. There are also plenty of Bush counties left.

I'd project about 123,000 vote difference when it's done. That's including the 4,000 votes they have to give back.

[righteous1]

217. One thing all of our calculations show

is that mathematically JK cannot win with provisionals and undervotes. Additional votes must be uncovered period

[bemis12]

218. Agreed

The provisionals aren't where it's at. Nor did we ever realistically think so.

[righteous1]

219. Well it appears that our esteemed source for this

excellent information on the Ohio Provisional vote tally has come to an inevitable conclusion... read @ www.ohvotesuppression.blogspot.com

[politicasista]

220. That doesn't sound good or does it?

[righteous1]

222. That was my impression, he's from Cleveland and his

work has been really outstanding concerning Ohio issues. Sounds like he's resigned to the fact that it just ain't gonna happen

[righteous1]

224. Hopefully still more updates today

[righteous1]

246. bump

[righteous1]

225. LATEST: 79/88 Bush + 48,307 Kerry + 53749 78% Valid

[righteous1]

226. LATEST 80/88 Bush + 48,725 Kerry + 54,265 78% Valid

[righteous1]

228. All provisional votes have been counted

as of 5:00 ET. The results of the 8 remaining counties will be displayed as i receive them

[righteous1]

229. LATEST 81/88 Bush + 51,781 Kerry + 64,492 76% VALID

The latest county to come in is Franklin, these totals include the correction for the 3800 double count Bush got on election night

[Pirate Smile]

230. You might want to post a new thread with the final completed numbers.

:)

[righteous1]

231. Sounds like a plan n/t

[righteous1]

233. LATEST 82/88 Bush + 54,133 Kerry + 67,535 76%VALID

[righteous1]

235. LATEST 83/88 Bush + 55,089 Kerry + 68,196 77% Valid

[KnowerOfLogic]

239. Somebody put this in perspective; does this tell us anything

about the validity of the "official" results for the rest of the ohio vote, i.e. non-provisional ballots? Seems like Kerry has done pretty well among the provisionals; migh this not indicate that he should have done better among the other votes?

[righteous1]

240. Heres how it stands

When the last provisional votes are tallied, Bush in all liklihood will be up ~120,000 votes statewide. There are 93,000 under/over votes. If Florida is any indication, a very small percentage of those will actually have a decernable vote (7%). That would be approx 6500 additional votes. Unless some sort of Massive fraud is uncovered it does not look real good

[Yupster]

251. Perspective

Yes Kerry did well among provisional voters. Of course he knew he would, and DU posters even thought he might get up to 90 % of the provisional votes. He did well, but not that well.

Should he have done better among other voters? Yeah I guess he should have. No one should have voted for Bush so Kerry should have gotten 100 %.

[nashuaadvocate]

236. The Nashua Advocate

I've posted this message in another thread as well, but I thought I'd post it here, too. My sense is that the news outlet linked to below may be of interest to those of you following this thread on Ohio's provisional ballots.

***

"I am the News Editor for the Nashua Advocate. On the Advocate's refurbished site, only Election 2004 stories are currently being featured (and this will continue through December and, if need be, beyond). I thought this would be a good place to mention the Advocate and provide the website to the users of Democratic Underground:

http://www.nashuaadvocate.blogspot.com /

Keep up the good work, all of you! The truth, whatever it may be, will ultimately rise to the top. It always does.

The News Editor

P.S. The Advocate encourages user feedback: feel free to comment on any stories you see in The Advocate (using the "comment" link at the bottom of each story); we will be running only the most recent and most interesting "new story" information we can possibly find/investigate. Websites and blogs may link freely to the Advocate (of course) and are warmly encouraged to do so. The more news the better!"

[pointsoflight]

238. kick

[smartone]

241. Provisional Ballot Red Flag

Stastically shouldn't the provisional ballots trend exactly like the general election. I vaguely recall an article at the beginning of the provisional ballot count which stated that Kerry had NO chance to win because Provisional Ballots tend to mirror final results.

The fact that there are going to be 10% - 20% more provisional ballots which favor Kerry is a HUGE red flag that Kerry voters were targeted -- I know this is obvious statement-- But the fact is that if provisional ballots show a disporpotional tilt toward minority democratic voters and that large majority of these provisional votes ended up being valide isn't that PROOF that Voting Suppression took place and this violated the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

[righteous1]

242. One would think so, on

the other hand election night JK spokesman said they believed they would pick up a very high % of the provisional votes. They did not specify how high a % or why this would be the case. I guess it's just conventional wisdom that the democrat does better in the provisionals than the republican. Similar i suppose to the republican generally doing better in the absantees

[nascarblue]

243. YEs!! Thank You Alliance for Democracy!

I never thought I would see the day. It's on for real now! C Span!

[Yupster]

250. No

because the Kerry campaign and 527's worked so hard on signing up new voters and trying to get voters who were signed up but never voted before to the polls.

Absentee generally goes Republican just based on military votes.

Before the count began, there were posters here putting up numbers that if Kerry got 90 % of the provisional ballots allowed, he could still win. At the time, those posts were seen as reasonable, and even when they first few counties came out 50-50, the posters still said that it was just a few counties.

Now the opposite. If Kerry got over 50% isn't that suspicious? Well, no it isn't.

[righteous1]

244. LATEST 84/88 Bush + 57,203 Kerry + 74,078 79% Valid

[righteous1]

245. LATEST 85/88 Bush + 58,159 Kerry + 74,739 78% Valid

[RawMaterials]

247. I think its sad that

the counties that are going for"bush" are have accepting about 85% of their provisionals ballots, but the counties for Kerry are only accepting 60% of there ballots.

[righteous1]

248. I was calculating yesterday

There is a direct correlation between the size of the county and the % of discarded provisionals. This is true thoughout the country. My city Chicago through out a whopping 48%

[operafred]

252. RE-VOTE

I strongly believe that we should not only concentrate on a recount but push for a RE-VOTE in FL, OH and other crucial states, if not all. Maybe spread the re-voting out over two days so that EVERY vote will be cast, but not on those damn machines. See:

http://www.buzzflash.com/contributors/04/11/con04517.html

[bones_7672]

253. Hey, you want to pony up the 10-15 Million Dollars, plus, it'd be illegal!

Sheesh!! Some people just don't know when it's time to let go and deal with reality.