Can a statistician look at Warren County OH?

[roseBudd]

Warren County is the county that locked out the press claiming a Homeland Security threat level of 10. The Enquirer broke the story and the followup with the FBI and Homeland Security denying having spoken to anyone in Warren County.

"The Warren results, delayed for hours because of long lines that extended voting past the scheduled close of polls, were part of the last tallies that helped clinch President Bush's re-election."

http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/11/05/loc_warrenvote05.html

http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/11/10/loc_warrenvote10.html

DU member lizzieforkerry is in Warren and can assist if needed. I have her contact info if needed. Also of help maybe Cincinnati Enquirer reporters Erica Solvig, Dan Sewell, Dan Horn and Howard Wilkinson.

[roseBudd]

1. Warren could be the key to Ohio

Otherwise why tell a lie that could be verified? Why decide on Oct. 25 to bar the press but fail to tell the press they would not be admitted? What did Warren County know or decide to maybe do as early as Oct. 25th?

What does it take to examine the poll books? Did repugs in Warren vote twice? Absentee and at the polls?

[lizzieforkerry]

3. Thanks Rosebud!! Duers, email me if I can help you.

There is no way Warren's numbers are legit! We have to figure out what they did!!!

[kk897]

2. There's some Warren County info here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x65226#66323

[batchdem04]

4. Here is a spreadsheet I did

http://www.geocities.com/flfraud04/warrenCty.xls

has 2000, 2004 numbers.

[shaggy briard]

5. High

Warren County is one of only two counties with population over 150,000 that showed more than 70% support for Bush -- turnout It is also the one of two counties in the state with more than 100,000 adults that showed turnout of more than 70% -- if you believe the turnout.
Bush also outperformed his 2000 totals by 37% while Kerry outpolled Gore by 32% -- in fact, this was the largest proportionate increase in Bush votes of any county except Delaware (which was growing much faster in total population)
These numbers are all suspicious

[lizzieforkerry]

6. Where did you get the polling numbers?

[shaggy briard]

8. Polling Numbers

Either Ohio SOS or Warren County BOE website -- suspect it was the latter, but I have been using both in different analyses

[lizzieforkerry]

11. Oh I thougt you meant exit polled.

Any one know where I can get the exit poll numbers for Warren County?

[Debbie13]

7. I visit Ohio often and I think you need to know about Warren County

Every year they're building new, more affluent developments. It's where Cincinatti is spreading and people are moving out to the subburbs. These people tend to be white families, churchgoers and probably Republicans.

I'm not trying to rain on all our hopes that Warren County is probably the key, because I think it could be, too, but is there anyway to get some demographics on the county?

Such as:
# of registered Republicans versus Democrats
What was the number of new registered voters and for which party? This might help determine at least how those voters voted.
What type of machines do they use?

(I'm not that familiar as a local would be on how these people would vote.)

[shaggy briard]

9. All of this stuff is well-known

demos and such are available on Census website and housing starts are on other commerce dept sites. The situation there reminds me of Long Island, where the repubs built a corrupt machine that became the envy of Tammany Hall -- even electing Al Damato to the senate 3 times -- fraud, electoral abuse, dead folks voting, public employee kickbacks to Nassau County repub party, etc, etc, All those churchgoing family white folks in new suburbs can still rent porn, cheat on taxes, pay off a building dept and fix an election with the best of them

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. Look at Philly Suburbs in this map- KERRY DID BETTER THAN GORE!

This map shows that Kerry did very well in the suburban vote- EVEN IN CONSERVATIVE LANCASTER COUNTY!
Has anyone done such a map of Ohio?



BUCKS Kerry down -0.8%
GORE, AL (DEM) 132,914 52.2% KERRY, JOHN F. (DEM) 162,220 51.4% 29,306 New voters 18.07% Better than 2000
BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP) 121,927 BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP) 153,424 New voters 31,497 20.53% " "

BERKS Kerry up 1.4%
GORE, AL (DEM) 59,150 45.4% KERRY, JOHN F. (DEM) 72,499 46.8% 13,349 18.41%
BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP) 71,273 BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP) 82,486 11,213 13.59%

CHESTER Kerry up 2.7%
GORE, AL (DEM) 82,047 45.0% KERRY, JOHN F. (DEM) 108,670 47.7% 26,623 24.50%
BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP) 100,080 BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP) 119,106 19,026 15.97%

DELAWARE Kerry up 1.4%
GORE, AL (DEM) 134,861 56.0% KERRY, JOHN F. (DEM) 157,531 57.4%22,670 14.39%
BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP) 105,836 BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP)116,728 10,892 9.33%

MONTGOMERY Kerry up 0.8%
GORE, AL (DEM) 177,990 55.0% KERRY, JOHN F. (DEM) 217,342 55.8% 39,352 18.11%
BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP) 145,623 BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP) 172,206 0.8% 26,583 15.44%

LANCASTER Kerry up 1.5%
GORE, AL (DEM) 54,968 32.2% KERRY, JOHN F. (DEM) 73,395 33.7% 18,427 25.11%
BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP) 115,900 BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP) 144,291 28,391 19.68%

LEHIGH Kerry up 0.7%
GORE, AL (DEM) 56,667 50.5% KERRY, JOHN F. (DEM) 73,180 51.2% 16,513 22.56%
BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP) 55,492 BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP) 69,702 14,210 20.39%

[hedda_foil]

12. And Delaware County is filed an injunction against the recount.

Now isn't that interesting? The injunction expires on Dec 1, so it's totally worthless. Even if the early recount request had been granted the recount wouldn't have been able to start much earlier than Dec 1 anyway.

I'm sending this to Ida Briggs for further consideration. You guys are on to something.

Thanks,

hedda

[evolvenow]

15. Hedda, this may be important!!Pls look..square root of PI, found this onli

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/586501/posts


What is the square root of pi?
Me ^

Posted on 12/08/2001 2:26:08 PM PST by ambrose


What is the square root of pi?
posted on 12/08/2001 2:26:08 PM PST by ambrose
< Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies >
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To: ambrose

1.7808986
2 posted on 12/08/2001 2:28:12 PM PST by Partisan Hack
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To: ambrose

what's wrong with you? all pies are round and most are not made from roots!
3 posted on 12/08/2001 2:28:19 PM PST by go star go
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To: ambrose

1.7728
4 posted on 12/08/2001 2:28:55 PM PST by BADJOE
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To: ambrose

Evil.
5 posted on 12/08/2001 2:29:12 PM PST by VRWC_minion
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To: ambrose

1.77245385090552
6 posted on 12/08/2001 2:29:17 PM PST by The Raven
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.10132118364233777144387946320973
7 posted on 12/08/2001 2:29:28 PM PST by Pistias
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more on link

[Spongebob76]

13. What if Warren county is just a bait?

Let's look at the raw numbers:

Bush has about 18000 votes more than in 2000
Kerry gets 6000 votes more than in Gore in 2000

That would give Bush an 75 : 25 advantage on the new votes.
Maybe that looks a little suspicious. However, what if Rove is using Warren County as a bait to distract from other counties?

Imagine the election is a chess game. Don't you think a man with the nasty brilliance of Karl Rove does not expect an major uprise when something like this happens? Let us rather question the "quiet" counties.

Assuming we add 10 Bush votes in every precinct, he gets more than 100.000 more. Just like the filing fee per precinct is $10.
For people who have seen Officespace you know what I mean. Steal a little bit from every precinct so it will add up in the end.

[witchhazl]

14. i think that's a good point. Every precinct adds up.

I don't know how it would work out in practice, but a whole lot of small "errors" consistently favoring Bush is what we're finding, right? who knows how many more are out there.

Come to think of it, the repubs control so many more counties, and therefore presumably precincts, in terms of just numbers. Each precinct gives them another opportunity to commit "irregularities" or "negligence" leading to a few more * votes. That all adds up.

Just what is their advantage in terms of precincts that they dominate/control, I wonder?

[Bozos for Bush]

16. Kick for turkey!

[senegal1]

17. kick