My Grandma on Vote Fraud

[info being]

My grandma is visiting for Thanksgiving. She's a Fox News watching Republican, but other than that I love her because she's my grandma.

Anyway, we were watching Olberman last night and that stat about 20% of Americans not accepting the outcome of the election got her attention. She asked me to explain what they said about exit polling.

So I explained the discrepancy of the polling vs. the actual vote. Now my 86 year old grandma isn't too sharp, but she immediately explained the discrepancy in a way that I couldn't refute. She said,

"Well, I guess a lot of people think its none of your business who I voted for."

All of our statistical models mean nothing, folks. Many Republicans just may not have wanted to admit who they voted for. They may even felt like they were in the minority and said they voted Kerry even if they actually voted Bush.

Do we really have a case?

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. yes we do

your grand ma also came from another generation.

VMS has been accurate all teh way until NOW?

Think about this...

Exit polls are accurate everywhere but the US?

Yes we do have a case.

Your grandma watches too much Fox, but is also from another generation

[info being]

2. And much of that generation voted.

I wanna believe, but I have my doubts.

[momzno1]

3. it's just as likely

that both Repukes and Dems would have been happy to shout it loud and proud who they voted for, especially if you consider the competetive climate during the campaign. I really can't see any reason that Repukes more than Dems would be hesitant to reveal their vote.
or should I say "Kerry Supporters" vs. "Chimp Supporters" since many Repukes voted for Kerry.

[GingerSnaps]

34. Why would seniors vote for *?

My Great Aunt didn't vote for * and she is the same age as your Grandma.

[Nederland]

12. Not true

Exit polls have always oversampled Democrats.

[Ducks In A Row]

20. the sample is based on the numbers voting, and more Dems voted.

if you undersampled or equally samples, then you are fucking with the polls

but then rethugs love to fuck our vote over. The polls before the election greatly oversample rethugs, and no one in the media whined about that even through it fucked up the poll.

[Nederland]

28. see post #27 (nt)

[mzmolly]

4. I thought of the embarassment factor and wouldn't doubt that might

have played a role.

[IAMREALITY]

19. No Way

The embarassmant factor is non-existant within the terms of this election. Let's be real, repubs couldn't wait to shout in our faces who they supported and that they disliked Kerry. There is no substantial reason whatsoever of they they would be 'embarassed' to admit who they voted for, when even today they freely and joyfully admit they voted for the Shrub.

Futhermore, to think that they would only be 'embarassed' in a few states but COMPLETELY open in 40+ others where the exit polls were accurate, is a far stretch to say the least...

[mzmolly]

31. Did you canvass this year? I did and Bush supporters were "embarassed"

...

[IAMREALITY]

35. Yes, I did

Hey, you can believe whatever you want, but the whole 'embarassment' theory holds absolutely NO water. (And I'm sure quite a heck of a majority agrees on that)

:eyes:

[mzmolly]

38. Who said I "belive" anything? I am waiting for the results of the pending

investigations before I make up my mind.

Note where I said it "might" have made a difference.

[IAMREALITY]

40. Investigations?

Somebody is investigating whether repubs were embarrassed to vote for the Shrub? Didn't see the link.

:eyes:

[mzmolly]

41. Investigations into alleged voter fraud. You know THOSE investigations.

:hi:

[IAMREALITY]

42. Ohhhhhh Frauddddd

Ohhhhhh you mean the REAL reasons why the Exit Polls were off. Ohhhhh Ok, ya see cause THOSE investigations are what is important, since THAT is what cost us the election.

Doesn't make any sense though that if the fraud investigations fall short that someone would then declare WOW, would ya looky at that? The repubs must've been Embarrased!!! Nowww I know why the exit polls were off, golly gee.

:hi:

[mzmolly]

43. The exit polls are the reason were investigating. But, if they count

ballots and Georgie won ... HE WON!

[IAMREALITY]

44. Ohh Of Courrrrrrrse

Of Course!!!!!! If they count ballots and he won then it must've been legitimately. Of course..... No way the machines with no paper trail that can't be counted were off. Nahhh no wayyy. Not like hundreds of thousands of people were suppressed or disenfranchised though. Nahhh not at all. If the count comes back for Bush then he does have a mandate I guess. No way I guess that ballots were switched, thrown away, erased altogether, altered, deleted, hidden in desks, bathrooms, trash etc...

:eyes:

[mzmolly]

45. Most of the counties in question were "Opti-Scan" which does allow

for a paper trail. And, in Ohio they have largely punch cards.

So, we should have a clue when a recount is finito'

[info being]

47. If it is that simple, we'd look pretty stupid.

It might be helpful for us to search for truth rather than only searching for what we want to see.

[IAMREALITY]

50. Exactly what we are doing. n/t

[hobbit709]

5. Exit polls

were accurate for years. The only times they were wrong is Florida-2000 and Florida-Ohio-2004. Why are they accurate everywhere except in elections where some kind of chicanery is suspected?

[Nederland]

11. Not true

Exit polls have always oversampled Democrats.

[Ducks In A Row]

18. the sample is based on the numbers voting, and more Dems voted.

if you undersampled or equally samples, then you are fucking with the polls

but then rethugs love to fuck our vote over. The polls before the election greatly oversample rethugs, and no one in the media whined about that even through it fucked up the poll.

[Nederland]

27. Not accurate

the sample is based on the numbers voting

This is simply not true. Yes, it is what you want, but you have no way of knowing if it actually is for a variety of reasons. One, you aren't asking every person who leaves the polling place to answer the questionaire. Two, and more importantly, you don't have exit pollsters at every precinct. In fact, you only have exit pollsters at less than 0.1% of all precincts, so their is a huge possibility of error if you don't choose your polling locations carefully.

[Kralizec]

6. If that was true then the results would have not been accurate

for Clinton, who REALLY won in a landslide. I think that election pretty much shows that the logic applied to the above thread is incorrect. It makes no sense that these polls were accurate up to the point when electronic voting has been used and * was the candidate.

[info being]

8. What about the New Hampshire recount?

Sorry if I missed something already written about this, but the recount is right in line with the original count, right? And the exit polls were drastically off.

Is it possible that people voted Bush out of fear in the privacy of the voting booth...but then were embarassed by that and never admitted it?

[Kralizec]

23. It isn't done.

Don't get me wrong. If everything was as it was supposed to be, KUDOS. But it wasn't. But at least no one can say we didn't try, though we could claim that for everyone who just wants to QUIT.

Sucker up.

[spooked]

7. So all those Republicans in every state held their nose and voted

for Bush?? And then were too ashamed to admit it??

To that all I have to say is how, then, did he "win" the popular vote when we were much more excited about Kerry as a candidate than we were about Gore??

AND People don't stand in line for hours so they can "hold their nose" and vote for Bush and 4 years of the same.

[info being]

9. I know.

[formernaderite]

26. My theory is that it was the democrats that voted for Bush....

..who were truyly embarassed.

[Paligal]

36. Who are you people with the "embarrassed" theory?

Where did you guys come from? I know you didn't come to a forum about vote tampering coincidentally, with a ridiculous theory that democrats voted for the most hated Republican president ever, and then lied about it...?
How the hell can you believe THAT massive flaw in logic and not consider that the RESULTS just possibly might be flawed?

I swear, holding on to the most absurd sh*t because you don't want to look at the most reasonable explanation, which also happens to be the most distasteful. Deal with it. It's a reasonable conclusion. Far more reasonable than the massive collective "liars" theory.

[info being]

48. You're the one with 14 posts.

If you can't make a persuesive argument to address the questions we raise, you are adding no value.

[IAMREALITY]

51. Couldn't Agree with you more Paligal, you are right on!!

Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[PROGRESSIVE1]

10. When you have a precinct with 1,000 registered voters and 2,000 votes....

you have a case of voter fraud, question!

[damntexdem]

13. Then why did this only happen ...

in precincts with certain types of machines?

[htuttle]

14. Your grandma is full of shit

Nothing personal. I'm sure she's very nice. I've just always wanted an occasion to say, "Your grandma is full of shit."

The exit poll anomaly can't be explained by only looking at 2004 (and throwing in a few anecdotes, like 'maybe they didn't say who they voted for').

It needs to be studied in the context of past exit polls, and how closely they tracked the actual results. THAT is where the anomalous polls really stand out.

[pointsoflight]

15. Sorry, that doesn't work.

Exit polls were spot on in many states.

Exit polls matched early voting results in key battleground states.

Exit polls matched the latest tracking polls in key battleground states.

Exit polls matched the results of punch-card voting and lever machines.

Exit polls matched historical trends.

All of this matches up nicely, except the election day results in specific states, and in specific precincts in those states where certain voting devices were used.

Besides that, we have ALOT more than just statistical anomalies here. We have huge numbers of reports of machine problems. We've uncovered numerous miscounts across the country. We have tons of evidence of voter suppression. We have alot of very suspicious activity on the part of election officials, such as the lockdown in Ohio, and unauthorized access of voting machines by former employees of machine manufacturers. And now we have direct evidence of tampering, uncovered by blackboxvoting.org, in Florida.

The stats alone won't cut it, that much is true. They can only point us to anomalies that must be explained. But we're not only working with statistical anomalies here.

[info being]

16. Thank you. You're right.

[unpossibles]

17. in my experience

a lot of my pro-Kerry (and anti-Bush) friends were not that loud about it, but almost all of my pro-Bullsh friends (and neighbors, and co-workers, and random people yelling at me...) were quite vocal and proud to be supporting Bullsh.

[SueZhope]

21. Greg Palast has some thoughts on the exit polls

Someone posted this good interview on another thread
Alan Chartock Interviews Greg Palast
its in part 2

http://www.chartock.net/gpalast.html

[electropop]

22. You're projecting your feelings

into the Bush voters. YOU would be ashamed if you'd voted for Bush, and might not admit it. THEY are proud of it. Exit polls have been amazingly accurate the whole time they've been used, up until 2000. Give it up info, your man is going DOWN.

[info being]

25. Give it up.

I have a shred of doubt and you accuse me of being a Republican. You're a newbie so I'll forgive you.

[Nederland]

29. Once again

Exit polls have NOT been "amazingly accurate".

[KittyWampus]

58. Once Again, YES THEY HAVE. They Have Matched, Within 1-2%

the vote tallies.

You are wrong. Stop posting misinformation.

[MallRat]

24. Yes, we have a case. Why would PA, OH, and FL Repubs be more reluctant?

...more reluctant than Repubs in non-battleground states, Red or Blue?

One would think that the desire to keep one's vote to one's self would be evenly distributed throughout the country, with perhaps some differences in states where the voter is in an overwhelming minority (i.e., some in Wyoming might not want to publicly admit they voted for Kerry, for fear of persecution).

-MR

[Carolab]

30. Your grandma is OLD

Old people are like that--they don't like people to be "snoopy".

Also, I believe Stephen Freeman accounted for/discounted this "reluctance theory" in his paper which gave Bush 250 million to 1 odds of winning the 2 of 3 critical states with pre-election and early exit polls running firmly in Kerry's favor.

[demodonkey]

32. My Mother is age 86 too, and SHE WANTS THE VOTES TO BE COUNTED!

She is VERY sharp, totally aware of the voting issues, and is VERY concerned.

Like much of the "greatest generation" she has always been very trusting (too trusting) and always believed in our county... but she has for sure come on board with what is going on, and fast.

The GOP of today is totally NOT your Grandma's party. I hope you can eventually help her to understand.

"Old" doesn't really give anybody the right to stick their head in the sand.

[Paligal]

33. Your theory doesn't hold water

The "I don't want to tell you" theory would be fine IF

1. Historically people lied on exit polls- why would this year suddenly be a huge difference from people's behavior in the past? Why wouldn't they just decline to state?

2. If it were that, then exit polls would be consistently wrong all over the country, instead of only in places with no paper trail.

Besides that, I suspect you are actually not on our side and are here trying to do damage control...?

[info being]

49. I suspect you aren't on your side

I support John Kerry. That said, I wish I saw more critical thinking on this thread and less reactionary attacking. You were on the right track with points 1 and 2. It would have been even better if you backed that up with some facts, but instead you (with 14 posts) accuse me of being on the other side.

I've been here for a very long time, first supporting Kucinich and now Kerry. Please try to argue that I've been pusting for the past year just so today I could come here and try to fool all of you. Give it a rest.

[IAMREALITY]

52. Fact: The Exit Polls Were Not Wrong Due To Embarassment

There....... Good enough???

[Name removed]

53. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[LisaM]

37. The electronic machine count/paper trail vote is the key

I have heard of the so-called "David Duke Effect." If anyone tries to tell me that people just didn't want to say who they'd voted for, my response would simply be to ask them if they were ashamed of their votes, like those who voted for David Duke and didn't want to admit in public that they were white supremacist racists. Because it's the same thing. If it's all about "none of your business" versus shame, then I think it would be equally divided.

[Hobbes199]

39. I know many Republicans who voted for Kerry

They could all be liars and drunks I guess.

[info being]

46. Some people here are very Freeperish these days

I've been on this board for over a year and have never been accused of being "on the other side". Are we really becoming so closed-minded that we cannot tolerate even a shred of doubt? WTF?

I want to believe, more than anything, that John Kerry won. But I have to say that if our case isn't strong enough to be argued on its own merits, then we may not have a case.

[TennisGuy2004]

54. "None of your business"

The "None of your business" crowd has been around for centuries, folks!

Listen! My Aunt Mary works with a 92 year old woman, who has always been a staunch Republican, and who voted for Kerry. She said many pollsters called her before the election and she always told them the same thing: "I haven't decided yet."

The fact that some older people say "none of your business" is not an explanation at all! Come on, people, stay on the facts.

[info being]

55. Thank you!

That's pure old-school...religion and politics are not to be discussed. That's how I was raised! I can't believe so many people here don't seem to know how common this concept is.

I was only trying to bring up the idea that nobody seems to be addressing this here. We can't rely too much on statistics, when the real explaination could be something as simple as this. I'm not saying it IS, but we have to consider the idea.

[IAMREALITY]

57. Think you might've misread?

Tennis saying he fact that some older people say "none of your business" is not an explanation at all, I thought was in agreement with the majority here that using 'a few old ladies who say "none of your business" as a leading theory' into why the polls went wrong is a ludicrous concept....

[LisaM]

56. Agreed, but what I was trying to say was

if it were really just "none of your business" versus shame for one candidate, it would have been equally divided along exit poll lines. I would think.

[IndyOp]

59. Could the exit polls be off *this much* by chance?

A few points about polls & difference in responses between D's and R's:

First, an article I saw before the election suggested that there was more support for Kerry than the pre-election polls were revealing because D's were much less likely to stay on the phone to answer questions than were R's. So, why would D's be more likely to slow down for an exit pollster than R's on their way out of the poll?

Second, the thought that R's were less likely to respond to pollster is an 'hypothesis' - no one has any evidence that this is true. Possible - but they have no evidence.

Third, if a pollster is asking for responses from every (say) 8th person who exits the poll and a person refuses to respond then they ask the very next person who comes along until they get someone who answers. This way of randomly selecting voters should yield %'s of voters from the two parties that match the %'s who voted at that poll. Random selection is highly likely to yield a representative sample, especially when sample sizes are large. Sample sizes were twice as large in swing states than typical -- so they were much more likely to be accurate.

Fourth, while it might be true that biased samples (due to non-response from R's) might account for one state's exit poll showing a Kerry win, while the vote total went for Bush -- it is extremely unlikely that this happened in multiple states. Stephen Freeman's paper "Unexplained Exit Poll" discrepancies looks at 11 swing states - 10 out of 11 showed a bias toward Kerry in the exit poll, but a bias toward Bush in actual vote count. How likely is this? What is the likelihood that if you flip a coin 10 times you will get 10 heads? It is 1 in 256.

[Sideways]

60. Sorry I Love Grannies Too But If She Tunes Into Fox Fuck Her Ideas

Propaganda loving Grannies are just fucking stupid. My Nana died years back and if alive she would have said Faux is SHIT. Your Gran should shut up.