44 Percent of Hispanics Voted for Bush? Highly Improbable.

[Carolab]

By Ruy Teixeira, The Center for American Progress and The Century Foundation. Posted November 24, 2004.


Public Opinion Watch: Dig a little and you'll see that the evidence doesn't point to Bush getting 44% of the Hispanic vote.

From the Center for American Progress and The Century Foundation:

In this edition of Public Opinion Watch:
(covering polls and related articles from the weeks of November 15-21, 2004)


Did Bush Really Get 44 Percent of the Hispanic Vote?


Have the Republicans Really Achieved Parity on Party Identification?


Does Bush Have a Mandate for His Conservative Agenda?

Did Bush Really Get 44 Percent of the Hispanic Vote?

I very strongly doubt it. This claim is based, first and foremost, on the finding in the National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, the nation's largest and by far most influential, exit poll. But that finding, if carefully scrutinized, seems highly implausible for a variety of reasons. I lay these out below and conclude that a more reasonable estimate for Bush's Hispanic support this year is around 39 percent.

Start with the Texas state exit poll. That poll shows Bush with an astonishing 59 percent of the Hispanic vote. That's an increase of 16 points in Bush's support over 2000 and a shift in margin of 29 points (from an 11-point deficit to an 18-point lead).

http://www.alternet.org/election04/20606/

[The Backlash Cometh]

1. That's because more than we would like to believe, probably

voted more than once. I still think those absentee ballots and double voting due to Republican phone hounding is a secret calumny, waiting to unfold.

[FULL_METAL_HAT]

5. Nice word! "Calumny" Defined ...

calumny

SYLLABICATION: cal·um·ny
PRONUNCIATION: klm-n
NOUN: Inflected forms: pl. cal·um·nies
1. A false statement maliciously made to injure another's reputation. 2. The utterance of maliciously false statements; slander.
ETYMOLOGY: Middle English calumnie, from Old French calomnie, from Latin calumnia, from calv, to deceive.

[The Backlash Cometh]

13. One of the first things that Glenda Hood stated she would

change in Florida is establish a voter bank that will keep track of EVERYONE's vote in Florida. Right now, every county in Florida has its own voter registration bank. Nobody really knows whose name is on the other county as a valid voter. It's left up to the voter NOT to vote twice, and it's up to the voter to give proper information of their previous address so they can be pulled off the last county's database; and it's up to the new county to contact the old county so they can remove the voter from their data banks.

In that process, there's a lot that can go wrong especially in a state where incompetence is a legal defense for government officials.

Bottom line, I think we will someday (hopefully soon) find out that there was a lot of double voting through absentee ballots and that it will be Republicans that are most at fault. I don't necessarily believe the voters voted twice because they were devious. I think it happened because of the get-out-the vote efforts by the RNC. Specially, liberally sending out absentee ballots to people who had already moved from the county. Imagine the voter's confusion. He thinks he sent in an absentee ballot, (which he did, and it was mailed to his old county) meanwhile, he has a Republican operative on the phone telling him that the ballot hasn't come in (to his new county) so come down and vote.

Before you know it, you have an innocent person voting twice.

And if our Republican led Elections office is aware that this problem is rampant in Florida, then their certified results are a calumny. A secret calumny.

[Zynx]

2. We still must face the fact that we are seeing an errosion.

This isn't pessimism, this is realism. Hispanics are deserting us in fairly large numbers over cultural issues because they are on the whole some of the most culturally conservative voters of all. We must make our message more about economics in order to get our old percentages back among Hispanics.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I Pointed That Out Yesterday...

The Republicans are busy co opting Hispanics and Asians...


That being said we should never stop being the party of tolerance and inclusiveness but we need to communicate to folks why we favor these values in a language that is not condescending and they can understand...

[ooglymoogly]

6. good let them start loosing benefits and see if the religious zealots

stay stoooopid. loosing benefits has a way of smartening people up.

[OnionPatch]

4. I'm not hispanic but

I work with several Hispanic women and I have been worried about losing the Hispanic vote for awhile now for this reason: abortion. They are pretty religious and do not believe in abortion. The Hispanic ladies I work with voted for Bush because of the abortion issue.

[slackmaster]

7. I live in Southern Califonria - There is no "Hispanic vote"

Thinking that Hispanic people are all of the same mind is a mistake.

I personally know a Hispanic man (US born of legal immigrants from Mexico) who is gay and a staunch Republican.

[The Backlash Cometh]

16. Thanks for pointing out something that is often overlooked.

[cdp]

9. Hispanics are trending away from Democrats

Even if you believe that exit polls are slightly flawed or fradulent, there is a pattern of Hispanics trending away from Democrats and towards Republicans. How much of a trend that is, and how much it matters is for you to decide.

2004 By Race:
77% of voters were White - Bush 58%, Kerry 41%
11% of voters were Black - Bush 11%, Kerry 88%
8% of voters were Hispanic - Bush 44%, Kerry 53%
2% of voters were Asian - Bush 44%, Kerry 56%
2% Other - Bush 40%, Kerry 54%

2000 By Race:
81% of voters were White - Bush 54%, Gore 42%
10% of voters were Black - Bush 9%, Gore 90%
7% of voters were Hispanic - Bush 35%, Gore 62%
2% were Asian - Bush 41%, Gore 55%
1% Other - Bush 39%, Gore 55%

1996 By Race:
83% of voters were White - Dole 46%, Clinton 43%
10% of voters were Black - Dole 12%, Clinton 84%
5% of voters were Hispanic - Dole 21%, Clinton 72%
1% of voters were Asian - Dole 48%, Clinton 43%
1% Other - Dole 21%, Clinton 64%


http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/index.epolls.html
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/elections/natl.exit.poll/index1.html

[Zynx]

11. If we continue the fight over abortion, we will lose the Hispanic vote.

We must somehow neutralize the issue.

[RaulVB]

12. Simply not true

Look, Bush did not win a 44% of the Hispanic vote because ALL THE VOTING PERCENTAGES IN THIS ELECTION WERE MANIPULATED.

Simple.

[Cha]

22. That's right...sell your Country down the

freakin' river because you don't want women to have a choice..get the government in on it.

Democratic issues(planned parenthood, condoms) are better to keep women from being in a position to worry about being pregnant.

The repukes want anti-choice and don't want to help them after they have babies.

[slackmaster]

8. Nice rant but it flies in the face of surveys, polls, and election results

:shrug:

[proudtobeadem]

10. I highly doubt it, I'm hispanic, and every hispanic i asked voted or would

vote Kerry if they were Citizens. Repubs WISH they could sucker this growing minority group into voting for them.

[cdp]

14. Can you tell me what % you think Bush recieved?

If people here think that fraud is the only reason Bush got 44%, please tell me what you really think he got. 40%? 35%? 30%? Either way it is much higher % than what Dole received in 1996.

This is a problem for Democrats.

[The Backlash Cometh]

17. STOP LUMPING ALL THE HISPANICS TOGETHER!

Crimminies. Bush got a good share of the Cuban-American vote, but I highly doubt he got majorities in any of the other latin American groups.

[proudtobeadem]

25. I think maybe 30% -only because I forgot about the cuban -americans..

and there are maybe 25-30% of hispanics in general who are more strongly religious.

[Quakerfriend]

15. In my muy grande Hispanic family

I'm always asked "Why do Americans support this craziness (ie, Bushit)?" I'm not Hispanic. They all hail from Colombia and Cuba, and have lived in the states since the late 1950's.............Last night over TG dinner, I mentioned that I was thrilled to have seen 4 K/E yard signs still stubornly standing on the way over........And, that I was praying that this "fraudulent election" would be overturned. They were all anxious to talk about it!!! Yet, totally unaware of all that was happening out there.

They are all strongly apposed to abortion. However, this was not a defining issue for them in this election. No way! My guess is that the Hispanics went ~25% for Bush, if that. Keep the faith people!

[The Backlash Cometh]

18. A voice of reason in the wilderness.

Thank you libertybelle. One thing that Americans don't realize is that America, through the CIA, has destabilized quite a few Central and South American countries. People don't forget these kind of things. The days when the US generosity made it to the lower classes is over. The money the US now gives to latin American countries goes to their leaders and it's up to the leader to decide how it will be spent in their own country. If that leader is not benevolent, then the people in the country see the U.S. as buying their government.

And in case that needs further explanation, that's a negative thing. Right now, Bush is in power. Bush represents the government. 200 latin American leaders walked out on him in the Chilean meetings. I don't think this is an accident.

[Quakerfriend]

19. You're exactly right!

n/t

[cdp]

20. Which means that a higher percentage voted Republican

in 2004 than in 1996. Even if there are about 2 million fraudulent Hispanic votes for Bush in 2004 (as you suggest) Republicans have gained ground in this group since 1996.

[SaveAmerica]

21. My husband's family voted Kerry too...

Your words could have been mine, except my husband's family is from Mexico. Before the election he e-mailed everyone asking them to vote Kerry/Edwards and his brother wrote back saying everyone was voting for Kerry. Very large family, raised Catholic, Texas even. The main reason; one niece stationed in Iraq. I also questioned those crazy 'hispanic for GW' #'s after the election because of the number of 'minorities' who are in the military. I don't know the exact numbers but I believe that the number of minorities in the mil. are so many now it's almost even.

[Quakerfriend]

23. So true about the military

SavingAmerica. I too, have an extremely diverse bunch from teens in the service..........to PhDs. 48 in total. They all think Bush is an imbecile! And, they see right through his phony attempts at Spanish, too!

[The Backlash Cometh]

24. That's probably the most stark problem that I see Bush has

with true latinos and latinas. They can recognize an educated person, and Bush is not that at all. Because of all the hard work it takes to get up from the lower to middle classes I don't see too many latinos having much respect for someone who was raised in privilege and now is coming across like a mandon.

[newyawker99]

26. Hi libertybelle!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Sammi]

27. Hispanics are very religious - Catholics and Evangelicals

Hispanics in Massachusetts are seriously religious.

Mexicans are also very religious.

They are mostly Catholic and Evangelical. They are pro-life and kind of outspoken about the evils of being gay.

[The Backlash Cometh]

28. I still think it would be wrong to lump their religious convictions

along with the right-wing religious white nutcases in this country.

There are other elements that play into the latin forumula, but you'll need to break it down by nationality.

For example, would they have more compassion for a poor woman making that choice over someone who was well-off making claims that the poor are welfare queens?

I say, putting Argentinians and Cuban-Americans aside, most latin Americans, not only would show compassion for that woman, but they would despise the capitalist middle-class to rich white people in this country who don't feel that they should give taxes to help the poor.

It's a shame that no one in the Dem party understands that latin Americans do feel that government has an obligation to help the poor. That's in direct conflict with how the Republicans run things. And yes, that sounds just like you read it. latin Americans could do just as well in a socialist country as they could in a (real) compassionate capitalist one.

[Zan_of_Texas]

29. Ahem. Not ALL of 'em are outspoken about the evils of ...

being gay or lesbian.

For instance, the lead plaintiff in a lawsuit to decriminalize sodomy in Texas was Linda Morales. That suit eventually led to the successful suit (with lead plaintiffs a white man and an African-American) Lawrence & Garner v. Texas that led to the US Supreme Court overturning the sodomy laws in all the states.

Two of my long-time friends are Latinas who are lesbians -- one out, one muy closeted.

[truehawk]

30. Kick