Concerning Voters Leaving Polling Places in Ohio

[Stand and Fight]

Hey folks... I was just sitting here mulling over something. I'm sure you've all read the testimony of voters in Ohio being turned off by the long lines. You know, the stories of as much as 75 people leaving their voting places over the course of the election day. Let's just say that out of Ohio 11,300 precincts just -- and I'm making a liberal estimate here -- 25% of those are democratic strongholds. Okay, so that leaves a total of 2,825 precincts are democratic strongholds. That being said, let's say that ONLY 30 people leave the line during the course of a voting day. This equates to Mr. Kerry losing some 84,750 votes if 100% of those voters who left had voted for Mr. Kerry. Jesus Christ!! 84,750 fucking votes! And that is with only 30 people leaving during the course of election day for whatever reason after not having cast a ballot. We all know that there are surely more than just 25% of the precincts in Ohio that are democratic strongholds. I'd never given much credence or thought to the reports of people leaving their polling places; however, having done this very elementary math, the implications of just 30 people leaving are scary. Plus we already know that in some precincts more than 30 people left.... What do you think? What are the actual numbers of Democratic precincts in Ohio? This is without ANY voter fraud whatsoever -- this is just with too few voting machines being in Democratic precincts. Weigh in here folks....

[slay]

1. The way Ohio conducted their election process needs formal investigation

I'm not sure who should be in charge of such an investigation, but there need to be an official probe on a highly publicized level to examine what exactly went on in Ohio. Not just some group who will listen to the complaints and dismiss them. Anyone know if there is any formal investigation into Ohio at this point?

[Stand and Fight]

2. This is something to think about

Election fraud wouldn't be necessary if you could put off enough voters.

[The Doctor.]

3. They pulled every trick they could.

Those people knew what they were doing when they decided to put too few machines at democratic poling places.

[Stand and Fight]

6. Yep!

I think they used every tactic available, and this is one of the most obvious to someone searching for problems, yet at the same time the one hardest to prove as being intentional. It's our word against their spewing bullshit.

[MarkusQ]

27. Why hard to prove?

Why is it hard to prove? If there is a systematic pattern, along party lines, etc. it would seem pretty obvious (see my posts below). And it's an issue that people can come to grips with easily.

• It's clear how Blackwell (for example) could have biased the allocation of resources,
  
• It's clear why some people think this was done
  
• It's clear (with just a little thought) how this could have had major impact,
  
• and finally it's clear (with just a little more thought) why this is illegal
  

It's not as sexy as the other theories, but I can see why people like it, and the more I think about it the more I think it may be the thing to focus on.

--MarkusQ

[flamin blue state]

34. All I did was hold a sign, and they did more to me

I would say that there were others. I had a bottle thrown at me and was cussed, just for holding a sign. I have no doubt that the election was stolen.

[MarkusQ]

29. No, but I agree there should be

No, but I agree there should be. That (and not recounts) is what I think will prove most productive. They were expecting recounts (after 2000, they'd have to be idiots not to). But if there was widespread voter suppression (and at this point I'm thinking there was--see thread below about capping the vote) a recount won't prove anything.

But finding out who allocated resources, and how...now that could be very interesting.

--MarkusQ

[dewaldd]

4. kick

[truehawk]

5. Yep, and in Florida many poll workers are dumbfounded

That the precincts they worked show so few voters.

[Stand and Fight]

7. You Bastards

You killed Democracy!

:-)

Seriously though... Doing this in key democratic strongholds would kill votes for Kerry easily.

[LisaL]

8. It sure did.

And I don't find it funny at all.
:spank:

[MarkusQ]

9. You can cap the votes in a precinct

You can easily cap the votes in a given precinct if you have control over how many voting machines they get.

Say each machine can take a voter every three minutes. That's twenty an hour, or 480 if they work for 24 hours straight (meaning the lines reach 14 hours long). If people give up earlier, you don't get as many votes, so if people only are willing to put up with four hour lines, you'll only get 280 votes per machine.

If you put (say) three machines in a precinct with 2000 registered voters, you've suppressed at least 500, and probably more like 1200 of them without lifting a finger. Do this selectively, and you've rigged the election in broad daylight.

--MarkusQ

[Stand and Fight]

12. Yep!

That is precisely my point -- then you would not need to rig any numbers whatsoever if you do it in strategic locations, e.g. democratic strongholds. Considering the fact that we are supposed to have an equal ability to cast our votes -- the fact that there were not enough machines allocated should deem this election invalid. That having been said, there should be a re-vote in said areas, and, given the speculation about the machines, a completely verifiable vote through paper ballots. At least, in my most humble opinion.

[MarkusQ]

25. I'm trying to figure out how to detect this...

I'm trying to figure out how to detect this sort of rigging. I'm thinking that you could look for a quantization/step function in the total votes cast and then look at precincts that went red vs. precincts that went blue.

Another possibility would be to look at turnout (#, not %) and see if it more closely tracks registered voters or number of machines, if that data were available.

Still a third interesting thing to look at would be number of machines per voter in red vs. blue (and black vs. white) precincts.

--MarkusQ

[MarkusQ]

26. Anyone care to check my math?

If...

• It takes someone about 3 minutes to vote on average (call this T_v)
  
• Typical lines at polls ran 0..4 hours (call this T_l)
  
• The polls were open for 12 hours (call this T_o)
  
• Anyone in line at the time the polls closed got to vote, so the effective open-time was T_o+T_l
  

A single voting machine could handle

N_v1 = (T_o+T_l)/T_v = (12..16 hours)/ 3 minutes * 60 minutes/hour = 240..320 voters

Similarly, precinct2 with more than one machine could handle

N_v2 = 480..640 voters
N_v3 = 720..960 voters
N_v4 = 960..1280 voters
N_v5 = 1200..1600 voters

If any of the numbers are off (say, it takes more like five minutes to vote instead of three) it would affect the exact values, but not the general pattern. The key part of the pattern is that there is a gap between the ranges for N_v1, N_v2 and N_v3, meaning that if a smaller precinct (with less than four voting machines) is "resource bound" it should show up as a quantization of the total number of votes cast.

Thus it looks like it should be possible (at least in theory) to detect if resource constraints were used to "rig" the election by looking only at the total number of votes cast, per precinct, and then looking at the same data split by party.

--MarkusQ

[MarkusQ]

28. Smoking gun...?

A very preliminary first cut on the data from a few hundred precincts in Ohio looks quite interesting. There appears to be strong quantization of the precincts that went to Kerry, suggesting that the number of votes he got was strongly influenced by the allocation of resources to precincts. The effect seems to be on the order of twenty five votes per precinct (on average), far more than the six votes per precinct needed to flip Ohio. There does not seem to be much if any quantization in precincts that went to Bush, indicating that something other than a resource shortage (who knows, maybe even the "will of the people") was the determining factor there.

Anyone interested in helping on this, some ideas:

• Try to reproduce my results independently, using your own data source
  
• Try to cross check using one of the other methods
  
• Try to pick holes in the idea, and post your concerns here
  
• Help me answer some questions (and provide links where possible):
  
  
  
  • How long did it take voters (on average) to fill out the Ohio ballot?
    
  • What was the rate-limiting resource (e.g., voting booths)?
    
  • What was the range of line lengths? Especially useful if there is per-precinct data somewhere
    
  • Where can I get a per-precinct breakdown of all Ohio in computer readable format? If possible, I'd like total ballots in precinct, Kerry votes, Bush votes, number of registered voters, number of polling booths, and final closing time (e.g., when the last voter left).
    
  
  
• Pass the idea around, and report back any feedback (positive or negative) that you get.
  
• Please post any thoughts and comments as a response to this post, so I can find them easily.
  

After I do a bit of sanity checking I'll work up a web-able graph of the data. So far it looks like a strong case for rigging by resource allocation, but I'd like to make a stronger case before calling it proof.

--MarkusQ

[jagsd01]

36. voter supression

BINGO ! Three counties had Dems in charge of the Election Machinery and had good Kerry vote trends vs. Connelly....San Diego Dem who was there !

[Turn CO Blue]

32. Truthout Article - 68 machines remained in storage in Ohio

Document Reveals Columbus, Ohio Voters Waited Hours
as Election Officials Held Back Machines
By Bob Fitrakis
FreePress.org

Tuesday 16 November 2004

One telling piece of evidence was entered into the record at the Saturday, November 13 public hearing on election irregularities and voter suppression held by nonpartisan voter rights organizations. Cliff Arnebeck, a Common Cause attorney, introduced into the record the Franklin County Board of Elections spreadsheet detailing the allocation of e-voting computer machines for the 2004 election. The Board of Elections’ own document records that, while voters waited in lines ranging from 2-7 hours at polling places, 68 electronic voting machines remained in storage and were never used on Election Day.

The Board of Elections document details that there are 2886 "Total Machines" in Franklin County. Twenty of them are "In Vans for Breakdowns." The County record acknowledges 2886 were available on Election Day, November 2 and that 2798 of their machines were "placed by close of polls." The difference between the machines "available" and those "placed" is 68. The nonpartisan Election Protection Coalition provided legal advisors and observed 58 polling places in primarily African American and poor neighborhoods in Franklin County.

An analysis of the Franklin County Board of Elections’ allocation of machines reveals a consistent pattern of providing fewer machines to the Democratic city of Columbus, with its Democratic mayor and uniformly Democratic city council, despite increased voter registration in the city. The result was an obvious disparity in machine allocations compared to the primarily Republican white affluent suburbs.

more...
<http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/112104W.shtml#>
Go the the second article down

[mackdaddy]

10. In just franklin County (Columbus) Ohio

At least 86 voting machines were never even taken out of the warehouse, and Dozens more were broken in or re-assigned away from heavily Democratic precincts to the republican leaning suburbs. (according to www.freepress.org reports)

These machines were being heavily utilized at about 200 voters per machine. That could easily be over 20,000 votes were prevented from being cast in just the one heavily democratic county alone. I am not sure I would have lasted the over 10 hour wait in many of these precincts.

My nomination for Cell mates in Federal Prison for Election fraud:

Matt Damschroder: Franklin County Board of Elections Director, former head of the county's Republican Party

Ken Blackwell: Ohio Secretary of State, Co-chair Bush re-election Campaign for Ohio

[Stand and Fight]

13. Precisely

The election should be challenged on those grounds alone -- all they'd have to do is look at the numbers, buy an 800 line that people could call into to say they did not vote and had left. Make it completely non-partisan, and I am willing to bet good money that the majority of those who were disenfranchised, who did not get to cast a ballot, were Democrats. Then, my friends, JOHN FORBES KERRY would be the 44th President of these United States of America. There is no doubt in my mind.

[mod mom]

19. not cell mates

they deserve better like rooming with the people they disenchandised!

[KaliTracy]

11. my experience

I am from Ohio -- and I sent the following letter to several outlets immediately following the election, because, as you'll see from my experience.... something seems a bit rank in Ohio... --

"When I went to vote at my polling place in West Chester, Ohio I was expecting "long lines" as that possibility was repeated several times before the election. I voted in the morning, around 7:30 am, and easily went in and out. When I returned from work around 6:15 and drove down the same street, I saw hardly any cars, and thought that our system had pulled together and worked well.

The next morning, as I heard accounts of people in Ohio waiting one, two, four hours, I began to question what I experienced. It doesn't seem right that we had NO problems in the neighborhood I happen to live in with waiting in lines (a somewhat "affluent"/mostly Caucasian, mostly republican area (Bush rallied here, in West Chester, Ohio with over 50,000 followers), the school district has been rated "excellent" 3 years in a row... etc.)

In my particular polling place there were over 5 punch card machines (I think there were SEVEN, but I'm not certain), and, if I'm not mistaken, the street where I voted there was a school, a church, and a school (all right next to each other), which took voters from different parts of the West Chester neighborhood (and there were other voting places throughout this area as well, as it is a pretty big suburb, with even 2 high schools). In fact, less than a mile down the same road a library was also a polling place, and about a mile the other way was another church, with two areas of 6 machines. At least 24 machines in a one mile strech (17 known for sure, and that's just assuming there were only 2 to 3 in the other places).

Yet, in various parts in Ohio, many areas, some of them other non-affluent areas, or college towns, and some of them closer to the West Chester demographic, only 2-3 voting machines were available at a time at most voting locations, and lines were as long as 4 hours, and of course, that one place in Ohio, over 9 hours. Kenneth Blackwell actually closed/merged polling districts prior to the election. (see below for some links)

When I voiced my concern about this to one of the Local Democratic Headquarters (I emailed several in about a 60 mile radius), a gentleman responded back to my email and stated that in Hamilton county there was about 1 machine per 99 voters, and he thought the problems were Not party specific (as some Mason areas had long lines, and they tend to vote Republican**), and that punch card machines were less expensive, so there were more of them in our area. That correspondence was around the Weekend following the election.

To be honest, I do not know if my district had long lines during the day (which would have warranted such a number of machines in this area), since I was at work. Most people I talked to, such as my spouse and in-laws, etc. who all vote in the same district, said that they didn't have to wait too long when they voted during the day. However, many of my co-workers in Dayton waited over an hour or more to cast their vote.

But my point, and the reason I am stating all of this, is concern for a voting system that is fair and equitable and reliable.

Seems to me, in this day and age, that an equal amount of voting machines could be dispersed to all voting locations -- or am I missing something? I've looked on the Internet for a Voting Location Map of some sort, to see precinct voting place lay-out, amount of machines allocated per precinct -vs. per polling place, amount of people allocated per polling place, etc., but have yet to find anything. I'm trying to "breathe deep" and just carry on, but I also feel that in order to STOP any problems from occurring again next time, that everyone, republicans and democrats alike, need to look at how voting places are determined, and arrange for equality in dispersing the machines. Simply allowing more people to vote absentee will not solve the problem, since there aren't any checks or balances that take place once the ballot is sent (often with Political Party Markings) -- nor will ignoring the fact that throughout the state, as well as the nation, there were significant anomalies with the voting process that just can't be brushed away as insignificant.

In terms of waiting -- I personally could have waited an hour or more (my boss wouldn't have liked it, but I would have done it if necessary and just worked later that night) -- others, needing to pick up children at school, or go to jobs that aren't so forgiving, etc., didn't have this luxury. And, to me, this is completely UNdemocratic. One shouldn't have to make a decision whether or not to stay in line to cast a vote.

It's far more important to ensure that our voting system is fair and equitable and reliable than to simply think the matter is over and done with until the next election. American citizens need to be assured that the process of voting is not something to be questioned, but to be cherished as our right in this democracy."

** I learned further that the reason Mason's lines were long is because, evidently, they didn't update their district counts, even though there has been *tremendous* growth since 2000. One wonders how they did primary polling, or what they learned from those numbers?

I would be VERY interested in seeing how often the machines were used in our area, Hell - throughout the whole state! (franklin county assignments http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2004/900 )

--
September -- Blackwell tries to limit press in polling places http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw/comment0928.html

Ruling overturned: http://www.fac.org/news.aspx?id=14295&printer-friendly=y

Provisional Ballot snafu: http://www.wcpo.com/news/2004/local/09/27/ballots_provisional.html

Challenge snafu (this ended up being in favor of Blackwell, but I'm not sure this link does that) http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2004/11/01/election2004/12_39_5111_1_04.txt

Here's a story in the Columbus Free Press: Document reveals Columbus, Ohio voters waited hours as election officials held back machines http://www.freepress.org/columns/display/3/2004/990

Update to this with Statitical analysis http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2004/914

Voters given wrong information about provisional ballots http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2004/934

Other things... (the paper weight provision was overturned because of public pressure -- but there were no doubt some that were returned, etc...) http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2004/810

I also know I read something about the closing/merging of certain precincts prior to the election (because they were going to get electronic machines, which would have "been quicker" but then, they ended up not getting the new machines, but I do not recall if it was on-line or in the press, if anyone has the link feel free to post it.

tracy

[Stand and Fight]

14. Right

And from the testimonies I have been able to read regarding the election in Ohio, there were not equal amounts of voting machines across the state. This is particularly of concern in traditionally strong democratic strongholds. I think this should be something that we explore and strongly fight to hold a re-election in Ohio. See my last post. As in practical as it may sound, it could prove the validity of the election in your home state. Because personally, I think the recount will be fixed much the way they are fucking up the provisional ballots -- I mean, good grief, over 8,000 dismissed in Cuyougna -sp?- county alone.

[Stand and Fight]

15. Kicking it...

There may not have been tampering with the numbers if this was done... I have to kick this for serious discussion.

:kick:

[KaliTracy]

16. Punch Card Machines

Many of the counties in Ohio still use punch cards. I don't have the numbers -- maybe someone else does. Our district did.

tracy

[goclark]

20. Kicking for more discussion nt

[KaliTracy]

17. Is there information

out there anywhere on the Type of machine used by district? My mom, in Toledo said in the Primaries they used electronic machines, as a test, but then went to optical scan. We used, and have always used, punch card machines here -- (lots of them in our district...). I don't suppose this would be posted anywhere?

tracy

[lawladyprof]

18. See also Equal Protection Clause thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x79652

[MarkusQ]

21. Long lines are a poll tax

I just posted something over there that I like a lot. Read the 14th amendment. Making people stand in a long line to vote is a poll tax (and thus blatantly unconstitutional).

--MarkusQ

[flamin blue state]

35. It is also racist

I had a bottle thrown at me, I was cussed too. All I did was hold a sign and smile. Those racist bastards stole the election

[On the Road]

22. One of the Explanations for the Long Lines in Cities

is the unexpectedly heavy turnout by Democrats.

But we are also told that Republicans won the election because they had even higher turnout. So how come the Republican turnout didn't cause lines in GOP strongholds?

[lawladyprof]

24. Why don't you post this over on the Equal Protection thread? eom

[Stand and Fight]

30. Good Point

That's an excellent point. Kind of like how we are supposed to believe that the exit polls were wrong whenever they favored Kerry, but right when they favored Bush or any other candidate on the ballots.... Things that make you go hmmm...

[berniew1]

23. Ohio Election Officials obstructing process to run out time on recount

Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.

As of election night there were 155,428 provisional ballots still to be counted in Ohio. The eagerly awaited Ohio recount cannot possibly begin until after the votes are counted for the first time.

It is now Friday, November 26, 2004. Twenty-four days have passed since the presidential election. There are 88 counties in Ohio. To my knowledge, only 13 have examined their provisional ballots, counted them, and posted the results on their websites. The 13
counties are: Ashland, Brown, Butler, Clinton, Geauga, Greene, Hancock, Montgomery, Pickaway, Preble, Tuscarawas, Union, and Warren.

Altogether, there were 23,873 provisional ballots issued in these 13 counties, or 15.36% of the statewide total. At this rate, it would take five months to count them all. This strikes me as a
deliberate stalling tactic to delay the Ohio recount until after the electoral college meets in December.

Here are the unofficial results in the 13 counties, with the sum totals compared with those reported on election night, so as to compute the net gains:


ELECTION RESULTS AFTER COUNTING PROVISIONAL BALLOTS

County Bush Kerry Others Ballots Not Cast Counted

Ashland 16,171 8,555 234 25,739 779
Brown 12,647 7,140 105 20,281 389
Butler 109,866 56,234 696 168,976 2,180
Clinton 12,938 5,417 58 18,674 261
Geauga 29,974 19,588 205 51,286 1,519
Greene 48,377 30,530 361 80,602 1,334
Hancock 25,101 10,343 140 35,926 342
Montgomery 138,361 142,977 1,205 287,635 5,092
Pickaway 14,160 8,578 123 23,132 271
Preble 13,733 7,274 119 21,559 433
Tuscarawas 23,825 18,854 260 43,760 821
Union 15,869 6,665 96 22,911 281
Warren 68,035 26,043 337 95,512 1,097

Bush Kerry Others

Total 529,057 60.04% 348,198 39.51% 3,939 0.45%
Earlier 516,376 60.18% 337,902 39.38% 3,753 0.44%
Net Gain 12,681 54.75% 10,296 44.45% 186 0.80%

John F. Kerry is actually gaining on George W. Bush as the counting of provisional ballots proceeds. In counties that Kerry lost by 20.8% on election night, he is losing by only 10.3% among the provisional ballots counted. In the 75 counties yet to be heard from, Kerry actually held a lead on election night:

ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS

Bush Kerry Others

88 counties 2,796,147 2,659,664 25,993
13 counted 516,376 337,902 3,753
75 uncounted 2,279,771 2,321,762 22,240


There are 208,696 uncounted ballots in these 75 counties, including 131,555 provisional ballots, and 77,141 regular ballots, mostly punch cards, which will have to be examined by hand during the recount. For a county by county breakdown of the uncounted votes,
read “JOHN KERRY CONCEDED TOO SOON” at

http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/uncounted.htm

Half of these uncounted votes, 104,748 (50.19%) are in 9 counties, 8 of which were won by John Kerry.

http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/summary.htm

There are also 14,799 ballots still uncounted in the other 13 counties, according to the table above. No wonder Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell is trying to slow down the counting of provisional ballots, and trying to delay the recount until after he certifies the winner. There needs to be a firestorm of protest to cause him to recuse himself, or a restraining order issued by the courts.

[jimnm]

31. Rights and Responsibility

I stood in line for almost 3 hours to vote. The people who chose to leave without voting chose to surrender any say that had in the elections outcome. With any right comes responsibility!!!!

[flamin blue state]

33. I know they tried to supress the votes

I had a bottle thrown at me and was cussed just for holding a sign, so I have no doubt that the election was stolen. I saw it from my own eyes. If they will do that to me, they did it to others.