Bush did better than exit polls in states with most voting irregularities

[WhoWantsToBeOccupied]

I reported in my earlier post that the nine states with, by far, the most reported voting irregularities per capita are AZ, GA, LA, OH, PA, NM, FL, DC, CO.

These states represent less than 20% of the voting-eligible population but 42% to 66% of reported voting problems in every category:

Voting age population: 19.60%
Machine problems: 59.15%
Registration-related problems: 42.52%
Voter intimidation problems: 61.10%
Identification-related problems: 53.63%
Provisional ballot problems: 65.81%
Late open/Early close problems: 61.25%
Absentee ballot problems: 54.24%
Long line irregularities: 75.25%
All other irregularities: 43.85%

Each of these nine states had a "red shift" (i.e., Bush did better in official vote than in exit polls). Only in DC was the exit poll close to the official vote. Reported incidents per 1 million voting eligible population were much higher in these nine states than elsewhere:

IRREGULARITY LOW-IRREG HI-IRREG NATIONAL
Machine 5.16 30.62 10.15
Registration 50.96 154.57 71.27
Voter intimidation 4.26 27.41 8.80
Identification 3.74 17.73 6.48
Provisional ballot 3.85 30.38 9.05
Open/close time 0.89 5.80 1.86
Absentee ballot 10.90 52.99 19.15
Long lines 2.13 26.58 6.92
All other 41.39 132.56 59.26

LOW-IRREG: All states except AZ, GA, LA, OH, PA, NM, FL, DC, and CO
HI-IRREG: AZ, GA, LA, OH, PA, NM, FL, DC, CO.
NATIONAL: Nationwide reports per million people

Now, divide all the states into "red shift" and "blue shift" states. Irregularities much greater in "red shift" states.

IRREGULARITY BUSH>EXITS BUSH<EXITS
Machine 12.34 4.34
Registration 75.28 60.67
Voter intimidation 10.75 3.63
Identification 7.69 3.28
Provisional ballot 11.37 2.90
Open/close time 2.28 0.73
Absentee ballot 21.28 13.51
Long lines 9.26 0.73
All other 66.16 41.00

BUSH>EXITS: States where Bush official votes > Bush exit polls
BUSH<EXITS: States where Bush official votes < Bush exit polls

Data source: Same as in my earlier post

[Melodybe]

1. Thanks, I plan on repeating that one, to all those repukes that want to

argue.

[althecat]

2. Awesome again...

[berniew1]

3. Documentation of irregularities: states where exit polls diff. from offici

Ohio www.flcv.com/ohiov04.html

Florida www.flcv.com/flavi04.html

Swing states www.flcv.com/votefrau.html

and votersunite.com web page

[merh]

4. What about congressional seats?

Is there a link between their winning more seats in congress and the states with reported voting irregularities?

Did they steal more than just the presidency? (governors, senators, et cetera)

[Straight Shooter]

5. My last look at votersunite.org revealed 3 states with most voter problems

Those were Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Those three states comprise one-third of all the problems reported across 50 states. What a coinky-dink that these three states were most important to this election.

The 2004 election is tainted.

[WhoWantsToBeOccupied]

6. FL, OH, and PA: % of reported problems nationwide

FL, OH, and PA account for...

41.84% of reported machine problems
28.59% of reported registration-related problems
47.75% of reported voter intimidation problems
37.55% of reported identification-related problems
40.27% of reported provisional ballot problems
45.58% of reported late opening and early closing problems
40.07% of reported absentee ballot problems
54.24% of reported long lines problems
29.36% of all other reported problems

[BlueDog2u]

7. You should get this published to the blogs,

dailykos, and the others. Very impressive work. Those numbers show how stinky this whole mess really is. Imagine, three states accounting for almost half of the irregularities in several categories. Big red shift states, two of them, against the exit polls and pre-vote polls, swinging for Bush. Means, motive, and opportunity are all demonstrated here, in this thread, and in the many others before it.

[bleever]

8. Statistical correlations: more machine problems = bigger red shift

In this analysis, I decided that rather than look at the states with the highest rate of problems, I'd concentrate on the states with the most votes. These states include, of course, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, all states that were high on B*'s list of target states. After all, if there were going to be manipulations of the vote, these would be the prime targets.


The correlation between the size of the red shift and the number of machine problems per million people (shows how machine problems affect the red shift; the higher the negative, the more machine problems hurt Kerry)--

In the top 15 states by population: -.492
In the top 10 states by population: -.5586

The correlation between the probability of the red shift's size to the number of machine problems per million people (shows how machine problems relate to statistically unlikely shifts to B*; higher negatives show machine problems make for less likely results):

In the top 15 states by population: -.456
In the top 10 states by population: -.575

If machine problems favored each candidate randomly, we would expect correlations close to zero.

This of course is only one part of the whole show; aside from machine problems reported (which are known to the voter who reported them) are the huge issues of central tabulation and votes mis- or unrecorded without the voter's knowledge.