Likely vote padding in MOST states to give W the popular vote "mandate"

[dewaldd]

We need to show that Kerry probably won the popular vote.

This is Blackwell's plan: delay the recount so that Ohio's Republican electors will already have been legally chosen--this happens Dec. 7. They can't be changed even if the Ohio recount eventually shows that Kerry won the state. Hence Ohio's electoral votes will be challenged Jan. 6. If this happens, the selection of the president gets thrown to the House of Representatives. Bush's win of the popular vote will be the excuse that the House of Repugs uses to justify their vote for Bush. We need to head them off at the pass by calling into question the results of most states.

So we need to check out ALL the states--both the non-swing blue states and the red states. Bush needed his "mandate" and the easiest way for him to get that would be to pad votes in areas where doing so would NOT change the results. If Massachusetts still went to Kerry, no one would scream if the vote tally was 62% instead of the 66% predicted by the exit polls. Likewise no one would scream in South Carolina, expected to go to Bush, when the vote tallies showed 41% even though the exit polls showed 46%.

Look at the graph: Only 11 states did not show a deviation towards Bush in the actual vote tally compared to the exit poll. 20 states showed a 3% or greater deviation towards Bush (zero states showed such a deviation towards Kerry).

Does anyone have a spreadsheet with the number of votes cast in each state and the exit polls in each state? With such info you can figure out what the popular vote would have been had the exit polls been "correct."

[paparush]

1. Very Rough Estimate

Bush's Popular Vote lead adds up to this:

3,000,000 Popular vote lead
3,141 Counties in the U.S.
*=955 votes per county

[KaliTracy]

2. hmmm

not many by any stretch of the imagination, when one looks at many of the little "glitches" that took place.....

[newyawker99]

18. Hi KaliTracy!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[KaliTracy]

19. *blush*

why, thank you! :)

[righteous1]

3. 66,000 votes per state

no easy task

[dewaldd]

4. no, no, no....it is a very easy task, just tedious

Find out the numbers of votes cast in each state (go to Secretary of State websites in each state).

Multiply total votes in that state by the exit poll percent of that state.

Add them all up.

This will give you the predicted popular vote for Kerry, based on the exit poll.

I bet you Kerry would have won the popular vote based on this calculation.

(I am busy organizing Ohio data collection and don't have time to do this myself.)

[nodictators]

9. dewaldd, your suggested method is flawed

The correct method is to first get the Total Ballots Cast in the precinct or county. Then multiply each of the candidate poll percentages to get the expected number of votes for each.

Some of the voters, perhaps 2%, may make an error and not have their vote counted, or may choose not to vote, in the presidental race. And, of course, the exit poll is expected to have small errors too, probably less than 2%. The total error rate might be estimated by the square root of the sum of the squares of these errors.

Thus, even in an honest election there may small differences, probably less than 2%, in the predicted candidate percentages and the actual results.

Now, if there is fraud, the differences should be much greater, probably 2% or greater. That is what we saw from Florida and Ohio.

The problem with using Total Votes is that it would be corrupted if one candidate had some of their votes spoiled by fraudsters.

[seaclyr]

5. my guess is that you're right

that Bush numbers were inflated in perhaps the majority of states to provide a cushion of votes. Which does mean those switched or phantom votes could show up anywhere, not just the swing states, although the swing states may have more, percentagewise.

[Eloriel]

6. You might find that data somewhere in here

check Exit Polls and also perhaps Resources and National:

VOTE FRAUD LINKS - A DU Compendium - Thread #3
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=201x4927

VOTE FRAUD Links Compendium - Thread #2
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=201x3223

VOTE FRAUD Links - a DU Compendium
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=201&topic_id=1984#

[LiberalAndProud]

7. Greater than 100% voter turnout.

These are the flashing red lights for vote padding.
Wyoming
Nebraska - http://www.wowt.com/news/headlines/1161971.html

Where else?

THE VOTE WAS HACKED!

[ahyums]

8. Personally speaking I think if there was fraud this would almost certainly

have had to have happened. That 3 million deficit is why Kerry conceded so quickly, I think it would have been statistically very difficult to win the electoral college with that kind of deficit - it suggested there was not much point fighting for Ohio because the chances of it changing were next to nothing. If there was foul play the pv would be a crucial part of it, and it would need to be exposed properly if Kerry were to have a good presidency

[tinfoil_beret]

10. New Jersey looks funny.

They could have added some there. See Union County, I broke it down at http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=79652&mesg_id=82546&page= The margin looks funny in this county with a large minority population. Also, the majority of vapor counties are red in a blue state, as noted in the post. Tell me that doesn't look funky.

[tinfoil_beret]

13. Nevermind the above post...

I couldn't see straight.

But look at this table I found for NJ comparing 2000 and 2004: http://www.politicsnj.com/2004_turnout.htm

[tinfoil_beret]

14. Bush's Increased Turnout in NJ is Wacky eom

[mikelewis]

11. This election could have easily been stolen, I could have done it alone...

In Ohio, I could have obtained a list of of people who were unlikely to vote. Everyone says that the young people came out in record numbers and then they draw attention to some college and show a picture of them standing in lines. I have a 16 year old daughter who has many voting age freinds. Most of them didn't vote. I have talked with many young people and I have found very few that voted. Another group of people that do not vote are the Jehovah's Witeness. It is against their religion. Another group of unlikely voters is convicts just released from prison within the past few years. Though some do, they are unlikely to exercise this right. Another group of people is one's that have move out of county or out of state. In Ohio, these people are a dime a dozen. I would find a list of these people, which I know is available, and I would mail in registration forms. I would then fill out absentee ballots and mail them in. Now, could I do 3,000,000 across the county? No. Could I I fill out 266,000 in Ohio? Yes.

I have said this before and I'll say it again. The absentee ballots have not had sufficient scrutiny. There is no transpearancy in the absentee ballots. You can suppress the vote and people will still vote, this does not guarantee victory. You can pad and supress the vote and it becomes irrelevant how the people vote. They will be fighting an uphill battle. This will guarantee victory.

In Cuayahoga County, the absentee votes shifted votes for the shrub by 7%. There is no data that shows what effect the absentee vote had on the the remaining counties. But in Cuyahoga, they had an effect. Someone has the data on the absentee votes in the state. I think we need to see this data, and we need to see it now!

Over the past few weeks, the resources we have at our disposal have grown. People are beginnning to take us seriously. That is why we have seen such an increase in people who are disruptive and abusive. This line of questioning should not interfere with any investigations and should actually be included in all statistical presentations that concern the vote. It is not. It is not talked about or mentioned by any person in authority. Is the lack of concern a validation that nothing could have happened to the absentee vote?

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[maryallen]

12. Ann Richards told Gore in Election 2000 ---

"Beware of the Bushes and ABSENTEE VOTES."

They'll beat you every time ...

[jdog]

15. Non-purge in Ohio?

Mike: I remember reading somewhere that Ohio did not purge their list of voters because of some Y2K problem they had. Could that have provided the list of names to do what you are suggesting there? Just a thought.

[Carolab]

21. Michael

Have you written or called the Cobb campaign www.votecobb.org about it? Or the local Dem party?

Or how about hedda_foil at www.helprecountamerica.com?

[Wiley50]

16. What gives with BBV?

You are right that we need to get the goods in other states. I've been doing that. But have reached an impasse.
I volunteered to be my county rep for BBV. Kathleen called me before they went to Fl. and told me that when I got the data from my election supervisor to call BBV. I got it and have been trying,unsuccessfully to get it in to BBV for over a week now.
The answering machine box is full. I wrote a summary of what I was given ( not everything I asked for I don't think. But without feedback from BBV, I can't really tell) and have repeatedly emailed it in. Half of the time it was returned " Mailbox Full". The other times I got no acknowledgement that it was recieved.
I then started sending emails begging someone to at least acknowledge that it had been recieved. No reply at all.
I know they are busy in Fl. and Ohio. I know one county in TN. isn't really important. But they could at least reply.
I don't know what to do.
Any suggestions?

Wilet

[dewaldd]

17. Bev is overwhelmed. It is up to us.

She always said that we all need to be in on this. I think that we ought to start organizing our own efforts by state.

Start threads in the state-specific forums. Coordinate volunteers in each state. We are going to have to figure out how to do it on a state-by-state basis.

We have close to 60,000 people registered in DU. We should be able to find a fair number of people in each state who will help--if we can convince them that a tin-foil hat is actually the most important fashion accessory this election season.

I am working on an information request letter that we can send out to boards of election.

[anamandujano]

20. It's great that you're working on this.

I think it was not for a mandate since they always act as if they have one no matter what. The huge "win" of the popular vote was for just this reason--so that a shift to Kerry here or there "would not change the outcome"--Kerry would have to challenge many many states, at a huge cost of money and time, exactly the situation we have now. Post #8 articulates why they padded so mercilessly--to overwhelm any thoughts of a successful challenge.