Exit polls are accurate to within 1% -unless Bush is running. Why is that?

[TruthIsAll]

Exit polls have always been accurate to within 1% - unless a Bush is running.

The deviations are not mathematically possible, even when compared to early 4pm polls.

16 out of 51 states deviating beyond the MOE?
All to Bush?
None to Kerry?
Kool-aid, anyone?

Women oversampled?
Uh-huh. I guess they don't work during the day.

Dems more anxious to talk to exit pollsters?
Sure. Repukes are shy.

Republicans vote later?
Right. Too busy on the golf course.

[seito]

1. Lest we forget "The Miracle Factor" n/t

[Melodybe]

2. Didn't you the drunken repub congressmen video

they do all the vote counting, that should be answer enough.

[Sick_of_Rethuggery]

5. Best explanation yet,

for the exit-poll/tallied-vote discrepancy! :-(

This is getting beyond kool-aid zone here -- I feel like I am living in a twilight zone somewhere -- my b-i-l (exactly like me in every other respect: Phd, Prof, hates Bush*/Rethug leadership, socially liberal, fiscally conservative, is stupefied that the impeachment actually happened, etc etc!) thinks this is all unproductive talk and in the zone of conspiracy theories and thinks I should quit talking about this (after I showed him the UC Berkeley paper!).

What hope do we have of convincing the stupid media to cover this, much less get the Rethugs to pay attention?

[BlueEyedSon]

6. Yeah, god did it.

[texpatriot2004]

3. Why is that? That's the million dollar question eh?

Why is it only when B*sh runs for office that the exit polls are wrong? Gee, I wonder? To me, it's obvious, he can't get elected honestly.

[seaclyr]

4. kick! n/t

[bullimiami]

7. bush and friends.

since 2000. suspicious?

nope nothing here, look the other way.

[tanyev]

8. Faith based elections

to go with that faith based economy.

[texpatriot2004]

9. Yeah, there's alot of faith in this economy...I think that's all there is

to this economy. We've turned the corner and all. Right. This economy is an illusion. Your message was funny it made me laugh.

[GOPBasher]

10. That's the way it is. And by the way, WAR is PEACE,

FREEDOM is SLAVERY, and IGNOR.. well, you get the point.

[texpatriot2004]

11. Yeah, life through the looking glass.

Up is down, black is white, it's wierd living under the evil B*sh

[understandinglife]

12. Strange, isn't it...

...how many times during the past three weeks we've read the 'the chance of that happening is........'; looks like 'a miracle to me.....'; 'my, weird ain't it that exit polls matter in the Ukraine but not.......'; ....... have emerged as characterizations of events surrounding this election?

And, then you have the 'proportional font and th^' gambit;

'leaked' exit polls, stock market slide' correlation on 2 Nov;

fbi/hs folk urging a 'lockdown' of a place in the middle of nowhere that fbi/hs folk deny;

and, this list of strange coincidences gets weirder and longer as the days pass (catch that little central tabulator glitch in Nebraska!!) ....

I'm soon expecting someone telling me the Constitution and DoI are fake and the real versions have just been discovered in a safe in las vegas.......

"Halt, Audit & Prove My Vote Counts, Now"

[texpatriot2004]

13. Indeed it is strange these days.

[texpatriot2004]

14. kick

[texpatriot2004]

15. kick

[IndyOp]

16. If you have specifics about the claim that polls have always been accurate

to within 1% - unless a Bush is running - I would LOVE to see the information. We have a huge gaping hole in our argument that the difference between exit polls and reported votes matters unless we can compare this years discrepancies between poll and vote with that of previous years.

I really, really do understand your and Freeman's analyses about probabilities that all of the swing states would all be biased in the same way -- and they are great!

For the statistically less sophisticated, however, it would be wonderful to be able to say how often and by how much exit polls have been for each of the 50 states in the past 4-5 Presidential elections.

:D