DAMAGE CONTROL--alert media about incorrect Connally numbers

[dewaldd]

So Olbermann already reported the erroneous numbers about Connally. Now Anne Coulter is going to cackle that he really can't count.

We should try to prevent other media people from falling victim to the same fate. If you sent the original erroneous information out, it is especially your responsibility to send out a correction--to everyone you sent it to.

Please email something like this to them:


Dear.........

It was recently reported in several publications that C. Ellen Connally, the Democratic candidate for Ohio Supreme Court Justice, received many more votes than John Kerry. This information is incorrect. John Kerry actually received 640,677 more votes than Connally statewide.

The errors with the intial reports can easily be confirmed by spending a few minutes at the Ohio Secretary of State website: http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos//results/2004/main.htm

A spreadsheet containing the relevant numbers is here: http://www.geocities.com/boycott_sinclair/prez-vs-supreme-court-justice-Ohio.htm
prez-vs-supreme-court-justice-Ohio.htm
(fix the url in your email)

Statewide, Kerry got 640,677 more votes than Connally. There are 11 counties where Connally beat out Kerry. The numbers in those counties only add up to 19,350.

There are also a fairly equivalent number of counties where the Republican Supreme Court candidate Moyer beat out Bush; they add up to 15,509. I don't see conspiracy in these numbers. They look like noise.

Sincerely,

............................

Definitely send it to Randi Rhodes. She will be talking about it all afternoon unless we get the word out to her.

Randi Rhodes: [e-mail]

Post other email addresses below, and keep this kicked!

These erroneous numbers are going to discredit everyone who reports them!

Man, our journalists really aren't doing their jobs. #1 cardinal rule of journalism--check out the story before reporting it.

[Karmadillo]

1. Facts? You're insisting on facts? That's no fun.

n/t

[jamboi]

20. Listen to the actual Elec. Fraud interview for yourself.Your info is wrong

Interview w/ Cliff Arnebeck by Pacifica reporter Evan Davis where he talks about the facts that expose the election fraud.:
http://pacifica.org/programs/election2004/20041128-HowTheOhioVoteWasRigged.htmlListen

[StClone]

2. Coulter? Scary Clown of the Right sent to put out the Fire?

Has she put upon herself to this calling or have higher powers called her. How will she defuse it? How will her contemporaries. Believe me they are waiting to spring their defense and are right now watching and scheming.

Also, how much has the brouhaha over the Rather Report tarnished stories of BushCo evils.

[KC21304]

3. Good luck with this.

I tried for 3 days to get the good people on DU to stop repeating the story of votes being flipped in the Fla counties where 70% of the Dems voted for Bush. You just couldn't tell some people that these were Dixiecrates who have voted Republican for over 20 yrs.

And then there were the graphs showing the states with no paper trail having the largest difference between exit and actual polls. Except some of the states showing no paper trail actually did have a paper trail.

These actions do hurt our case. Let's find the fraud where it really is because I think it does exist.

[IndyOp]

4. Dewaldd - YOU the man!

I sent an email suggesting what the media should AVOID today - Kerry/Connally and Madsen and suggesting what the media should COVER today - Dean Solomon's "Validate the Vote" and John Allen Paulos' "Final Tallies Minus Exit Polls = A Statistical Mystery!' When we have a Yale Law Dean and a New York Times Bestselling Mathematics Professor on our side we should use them!

Validate the Vote
<http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bal-op.election26nov26,1,4103824.story?coll=bal-oped-headlines>

'Final Tallies Minus Exit Polls = A Statistical Mystery!'
<http://www.math.temple.edu/~paulos/exit.html>

[pointsoflight]

5. STOP with your false information.

YOUR YOURSELF pointed out yesterday that the numbers refer to MARGINS, not vote totals. And Keith Olbermann made it very clear that that's what we're talking about here:

Jackson refers in part to what several voters’ groups see as the incongruity of an underfunded Democratic candidate for the Ohio Supreme Court, C. Ellen Connally, getting a net 45,000 more votes in Butler County relative to her Republican opponent than Kerry did relative to his. She finished ahead of her party’s presidential nominee by 10,000 net votes or more in five Ohio counties; by 5,000 or more in ten others.

Note the phrases "relative to her Republican opponent" and "relative to his".

It is true that Connally did not get more votes than Kerry. But that's not what's being asserted. What's being asserted is that Connally did better against her opponent than Kerry did against his opponent, to a tune of 275K votes. AND THAT IS ACCURATE.

[SomthingsGotaGive]

9. Want to bet you get no reply ?

I hope this post might change that but I doubt the original poster will respond to your argument.

Great comeback!

[dewaldd]

10. No, Olbermann got the story wrong....

quote from http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6210240/ :

"She finished ahead of her party’s presidential nominee by 10,000 net votes or more in five Ohio counties; by 5,000 or more in ten others."

This is not true. She didn't finish ahead of him in any county by 10,000 net votes or more in any county. See the info in the index post of this thread.

[pointsoflight]

13. They are clearly referring to margins. Here are the full quotes...

Not cherry-picked and taken out of context, like yours.

Keith Olbermann:

Jackson refers in part to what several voters’ groups see as the incongruity of an underfunded Democratic candidate for the Ohio Supreme Court, C. Ellen Connally, getting a net 45,000 more votes in Butler County relative to her Republican opponent than Kerry did relative to his. She finished ahead of her party’s presidential nominee by 10,000 net votes or more in five Ohio counties; by 5,000 or more in ten others.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6210240

Freepress.org, Nov 29:

New findings indicate that Kerry's margins in 37 (of 88) Ohio counties are suspiciously low when compared to those garnered by Judge Ellen Connally, an unsuccessful Democratic Supreme Court candidate.

http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2004/947

Freepress.org, Nov 28:

In analyzing the still-unofficial results, the totals reveal that C. Ellen Connally, an African-American Democratic candidate from Cleveland for Ohio Chief Justice, received 257,000 more votes than Kerry. {Editor's note: Rev. Jackson was referring to Connally's margin of votes as a benchmark, not actual more votes. Jackson was referring to margin calculations instead of actual votes...}

http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2004/944

Oh, and in case you forgot, here's YOUR POST from last night:

A negative sign immediately below means that the margin for Kerry (in his race) was less than the margin for Connally (in her race) by the indicated amount. All counties where Connally's margin exceeded Kerry's by 2,000 votes or more should be on this list. There are 37 such counties.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=87016&mesg_id=87016

[understandinglife]

14. Well done & everyone, I urge you to read KO's latest...

....posting. His mentor and friend is Mr Dick Ebersol, yes, the one who was in the terrible plane crash in CO....

"Halt, Audit & Prove My Vote Counts, Now"

[roseBudd]

12. I heard Jackson speak today in Cincinnati

and he framed the Connally votes issue as in democratically voting Cleveland where she is well known she got less votes than Kerry. In republican leaning SW OHio counties Connaly got more votes than Kerry though she is unknown in SW Ohio.

[tngledwebb]

6. They will set up Olbermann

for a Dan Rather denouement.

[kk897]

7. OK, but...

how about adding a paragraph or two (at the top) about how the margin of victory for Connally is suspiciously high in some counties, and if you extrapolate the numbers, she has a higher margin of victory than Kerry?

People just confused by the extrapolation part, I think.

[dewaldd]

18. The argument is pretty shaky---there is a similar discrepancy for Bush too

There are counties, like Mahoning and Erie, where Kerry won and the Republican Justice got more votes than Bush. It is just not a convincing argument.

[New Earth]

8. i don't trust anyone anymore

no one. i don't understand why this persoon is so worked up over this. they are going to LOOK INTO IT IN OHIO. there is nothing else WE can do!

[dewaldd]

11. I am worked up about it because we cannot use false information

to try to further our cause. It will just discredit us, and the journalists who report on the election problems will drop the story for fear of ruining their reputations.

Sure, Rove is good at lies, but we aren't Rove.

[pointsoflight]

15. If that's true, then please post the full, accurate information.

And that is this.

Jesse Jackson, Keith Olbermann and others are talking about margins, not vote totals. Some people misunderstood and though they were referring to vote totals, but that's not the fault of Jackson or Olbermann, because they were clear to say margin.

So here's where we are:

--Kerry did not get fewer votes than Donnally.
--Kerry did, however, lose by a much bigger margin than Donnally did.
--The difference in the margin is quite striking in some individual republican counties where you wouldn't expect strong support for a democratic judge.
--So although the argument isn't as compelling as it would be if Kerry got 275K fewer votes, the pattern is still odd and worth investigating.

[Carolab]

16. I read what Keith wrote

he didn't say what you are saying he said.

What he said was that the judge got more votes RELATIVE TO HER REPUBLICAN OPPONENT than Kerry got RELATIVE TO HIS.

Stop saying he got it wrong and the sky is falling.

[truehawk]

17. It is the Preportion they are talking about!!

This counties where the vote for Connally is suspicious is in HEAVILY REPUBLICAN counties, exactly where one would expect them to pad the vote.

By suspicious, Jackson is referring to the latest analysis of the Nov. 2 vote by a coalition of Ohio voting rights activists. In analyzing the still-unofficial results, the totals reveal that C. Ellen Connally, an African-American Democratic candidate from Cleveland for Ohio Chief Justice.

If the counties voted in the same PROPORTION for Kerry as for Connally, Kerry received over 100,000 more votes, I still have to check the numbers.



"For example in Butler County, Connally the Democrat received 59,532 running against Republican Chief Justice Moyer who received 66,625 votes. the difference between Connally and Moyers's votes was 7093. Bush received 106,735 votes and Kerry received 54,185 votes, with a difference of 52,550.
Moyer won over Connally with 52.8% eliminating minimal third party votes, Bush won over Kerry with 66%.

Kerry is short at least 5000 votes and more like 21,751 votes in Butler County, if the county voted for Kerry in the same proportion as they voted for Connally.


"
The reason these vote counts are suspect is because Connelly, a retired African-American judge, was vastly outspent in her race, and did not have the visibility of the presidential race.

“This looks like a computer glitch or a computer fix,” said Bob Fitrakis, a lawyer, political scientist and Editor of the Columbus Free Press (http://freepres.org) who has written about election irregularities since Bush was declared the winner. Fitrakis is among the team of lawyers who announced they would soon file an election challenge in the state’s Supreme Court.

“Statistically, Kerry, as the Democratic presidential candidate, should have more votes than Connally. In a presidential election, most voters have the priority of casting a vote for president and the votes for president are almost always much higher than those of candidates farther down the ticket. When voters vote for Democratic candidates farther down the ticket, it is usually being driven by a sample ballot from the Party, starting at the top with president. Many voters simply don’t vote for Supreme Court justices. It is highly improbable that Connally’s vote totals would be so much higher than Kerry’s,” Fitrakis said.

The fact that Warren County has such odd vote counts is no surprise to Fitrakis. “The Republican-dominated county threw out all the media and independent vote watchers when votes were being counted at the end of Election Day, claiming ‘homeland security’ issues. This would have easily allowed for the wholesale shifting of a large amount of votes from Kerry to Bush. If you’re behind closed doors, it is easy enough to do. The November issues of Popular Science and Popular Mechanics magazines show how easy it is to hack the vote and steal an election. The articles are called ‘E-vote emergency: And you thought dimpled chads were bad’ and ‘Could hackers tilt the election?’ I think they did,” explained Fitrakis.

There were 15 Ohio counties where Connally’s margin was 5,000 votes or more better than Kerry’s unofficial results. In five counties, Connally had a 10,000-vote margin or better. These counties used punch card, optical scan, and touch screen voting machines – with most using punch card systems.

[dewaldd]

22. You could use the same argument to claim that Bush was robbed in Mahoning

Mahoning county:

Bush: 47,968
Kerry: 81,500

Connally: 55,343
Moyer: 53,356

If people voted in the same proportions in the prez race as they did in the justice's race, Bush would have gotten 78,574--Is this "proof" that Bush was robbed of 30,606 votes?

This argument is really out of hand.

We just need to ensure that all the ballots are hand-counted, and they haven't been tampered with. These amateur statistical fishing expeditions are turning into a massive waste of time.

[John Q. Citizen]

23. How do you know the effort was done by amateurs, dewaldd?

Your initial post on this thread completely misrepresents the facts.

You know better because yesterday you wrote margin, now today you set up a straw man, scream the sky is falling, and completely disrespect Jesse Jackson, Olbermann, and anyone else who dares question your "great fear."

Are you a "professional statistician?

If not, then why would we trust your analysis?

[On the Road]

19. Here's the Data in a Bubble Chart

Wish I could label the counties, but Excel makes it extremely difficult. But you can see that the discrepancies are primarily in the smaller counties.

The rationale for this pattern would be that some Democrats specifically voted against Kerry even if they voted straight party otherwise. That's consistent with the pattern of rural counties getting redder this election.

The altnernate explanation would be that Kerry votes were switched or not counted in these counties.

[Name removed]

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