My conversation with Mitofsky (exit pollster) READ IT NOW!!

[ClintCooper2003]

(One caveat: I'm not always nice and polite during this back and forth series of emails. Forgive me.)

Date: 11/24/2004 9:23:20 PM Pacific Standard Time
From: ClintCooper2003
To: [e-mail]

I was just wondering something. Those late afternoon exit polls that were weighted by gender, party ID, age, and race, and placed ALL OVER the CNN.com website with charts and graphs of every conceivable type for every single state in this country - are you trying to tell us that THOSE EXIT POLLS were the same ones that were casually leaked earlier in the day?

Is that the shit you're shoveling on us now?


Subj: Re: Exit Polls.
Date: 11/25/2004 4:49:07 AM Pacific Standard Time
From: [e-mail]
To: [e-mail]
Sent from the Internet (Details)

There were no exit polls weighted by gender, party ID, age or race. That is not part of the exit poll weighting. Second, the exit polls on the web were not released by us. They were leaked by people I don't know, the numbers they leaked were wrong, and I have no responsibility for bad information I did not put out. All the numbers I released were after the polls closed. All the projections were correct. If you think that is shit you can eat it, for all I care.


Subj: Re: Exit Polls.
Date: 11/25/2004 2:24:57 PM Pacific Standard Time
From: ClintCooper2003
To: [e-mail]

I'm not talking about the numbers put "on the web." I'm talking about the numbers put on cnn.com that were there until PAST MIDNIGHT on election night. Are you suggesting that some hackers got a hold of cnn.com and put the numbers favorable to Kerry there and you didn't do anything about it for SIX HOURS!

That seems completely incredible to believe. Additionally, the numbers on cnn.com didn't appear for each state until directly after the polls had closed. And yes, I'm sorry, but I distinctly remember the percentages of voters that were Democrat, Republican, Female, Male, etc... and they clearly had been weighted at least to the extent that they represented the general voting population in each state.

If what you say is correct about cnn.com's figures, then there definitely would have been an uproar at CNN and Wolf Blitzer would have come out strongly against the web numbers IMMEDIATELY saying that those numbers couldn't be trusted.

I smell a rat.


Subj: Re: Exit Polls.
Date: 11/25/2004 7:45:55 PM Pacific Standard Time
From: [e-mail]
To: [e-mail]
Sent from the Internet (Details)

I am sure cnn posted numbers we released. How old the numbers were when you saw them is something I do not know. Furthermore, the numbers you are describing are not the estimates we used to make projections. The projection numbers do not come from tabulations of the vote by age, sex or anything else.



Subj: Re: Exit Polls.
Date: 11/26/2004 10:10:02 AM Pacific Standard Time
From: ClintCooper2003
To: [e-mail]

What would the point be in posting numbers very late in the day that would be useless in creating projections and leaving them there past midnight, when it would already be clear who the winner was in each state? You must at least admit that waiting to recalibrate the data until long after it became clear who the winner was creates the appearance of fixing the exit polls to match the results.

Additionally, however, I think you should look at the following data I was able to grab from election night:

In the original Ohio exit poll, among White Men (40% of survey), Bush gets 53% and Kerry gets 47%. Among White Women (45% of survey), Bush gets 53% and Kerry gets 47%. So among these subgroups, the percentages are the same.

Now, on the corrected data, suddenly we find that among White Men (still 40% of survey), Bush gets 56% to Kerry's 43%. And among White Women (now 46% of survey), Bush gets 55% to Kerry's 45%.

Thus, the proportions of White Men and White Women are almost exactly the same in both the afternoon release and the subsequent "correction" of figures

Additionally, I distinctly remember that the sample size remained almost precisely the same from the first set of figures to the second.

Your response may be that the very last people who voted on election day in Ohio tended to be Bush voters and that the mid to late-afternoon figures were skewed in Kerry's favor, but there really would have had to have been a huge shift to Bush right towards the end to overcome Kerry's strong early lead in Ohio.

Also, this is simply provably false in any case. Nearly all of the polling stations that still had long lines at the end of the day were in Democratic precincts, meaning at the very end of the voting time-frame, there would have been a shift towards Kerry anyway.



Now, in your response to me, you said "how old the numbers were when you saw them I do not know..." Did they leave you out of the loop as to what numbers they were using? If so, I don't understand why you weren't more actively involved.

Another important thing I want to make clear is this: I followed cnn.com for a long time on election night and I noticed that cnn.com did not even put up the exit poll figures until the polls had closed for that particular state. Therefore, the numbers that were used this year, by default, must have been numbers that came from later in the day than in the Election 2000.

I went back and looked at some of the "raw" numbers from Election 2000. What I noticed was that the "uncalibrated" data from 2000 (which, by the way, was released a bit earlier in the day than this year) was simply far more accurate. In fact, among the battleground states only Wisconsin was off by more than 5%.

Let me ask you something: Have exit polling techniques changed radically over the last few years or has the way we count the votes changed radically over the last few years?



Subj: Re: Exit Polls.
Date: 11/26/2004 5:18:30 PM Pacific Standard Time
From: [e-mail]
To: [e-mail]
Sent from the Internet (Details)

I never said the results were not recalibrated. They were constantly recalibrated. I said the posting did not necessarily reflect the recalibration. I have no idea what CNN posted or when it was updated. Maybe it was often; maybe it was seldom. Ask them; not me. If the sample size remained the same it sound as though there was not much new data. The posting you are referring to was of analytical data. It was crosstabs. That was not the data analysts were using for projections once the polls closed. There seems to be some disconnect between what I am saying and your interpretation. Your interpretation, to be plausible, should accommodate what I keep telling you.



Subj: Re: Exit Polls.
Date: 11/27/2004 11:15:45 AM Pacific Standard Time
From: ClintCooper2003
To: [e-mail]

You are not responding to my arguments.

As for your lack of knowledge as to when cnn.com was updated, what figures they were using, etc... I believe you are being deliberately disingenuous. I find it incredibly hard to believe that you had no knowledge of what numbers they were using and when they were using them.

Once again, I am wondering when you thought it would be appropriate to make a projection. Let me put it this way: The first batch of exit polls for California was posted shortly after the California polls closed and CNN made an immediate projection for John Kerry to take California. The exit poll showed him leading by only 8 points.

The exit poll for New Hampshire was also posted shortly after the polls closed there, and it showed Kerry leading by 10 points - in a much smaller state with a nice-sized sample and a smaller margin of error.

I want to know why CNN didn't immediately call the state for John Kerry. Was it because someone at CNN got a call from the Bush camp saying their exit poll numbers were "different"?

You state "The posting you are referring to was of analytical data. It was crosstabs." Okay, fine. Then why post the numbers in the first place? Why was there no caveat issued with the release of the early evening figures?

And also, why wait until 1 a.m. to readjust the figures to make a "projection?" Are you saying that your early evening exit polls were entirely useless? Or do you think that CNN wanted to deliberately mislead the public about the outcome of this election? Once again, you are not responding to my arguments.

You also didn't say one word about how tabulation technology has radically changed over the past few years.

Also, here are my other arguments that you said absolutely nothing about:

"Additionally, however, I think you should look at the following data I was able to grab from election night:

In the original Ohio exit poll, among White Men (40% of survey), Bush gets 53% and Kerry gets 47%. Among White Women (45% of survey), Bush gets 53% and Kerry gets 47%. So among these subgroups, the percentages are the same.

Now, on the corrected data, suddenly we find that among White Men (still 40% of survey), Bush gets 56% to Kerry's 43%. And among White Women (now 46% of survey), Bush gets 55% to Kerry's 45%.

Thus, the proportions of White Men and White Women are almost exactly the same in both the afternoon release and the subsequent "correction" of figures

Additionally, I distinctly remember that the sample size remained almost precisely the same from the first set of figures to the second.

Your response may be that the very last people who voted on election day in Ohio tended to be Bush voters and that the mid to late-afternoon figures were skewed in Kerry's favor, but there really would have had to have been a huge shift to Bush right towards the end to overcome Kerry's strong early lead in Ohio.

Also, this is simply provably false in any case. Nearly all of the polling stations that still had long lines at the end of the day were in Democratic precincts, meaning at the very end of the voting time-frame, there would have been a shift towards Kerry anyway.

Another important thing I want to make clear is this: I followed cnn.com for a long time on election night and I noticed that cnn.com did not even put up the exit poll figures until the polls had closed for that particular state. Therefore, the numbers that were used this year, by default, must have been numbers that came from later in the day than in the Election 2000."


Subj: Re: Exit Polls.
Date: 11/27/2004 2:24:54 PM Pacific Standard Time
From: [e-mail]
To: [e-mail]
Sent from the Internet (Details)

Be realistic. On election day we send reports to six members and about 100 subscribers. Do I know what we send? Yes. Do I know what they post on their web sites and when? Absolutely not. If you think that is disingenuous then so be it.

I think it is appropriate to make a projection when at least one of the dozen estimates has a sampling error relative to the difference between the top candidates gives me a maximum chance of error of 1 in a 100. That is the first requirement. There are many others that have to do with data quality. That's when I make a projection. Projections were made in wide open races from exit polls. In others it took vote returns in sample precincts. Still others it took the vote tally by county. It all depended how close the race was. None of this came from the analytic data posted by CNN or anyone else. That is not the source of the estimates. It is not even all the exit poll data. NH was one of the states we told the members to ignore the exit poll data. There were eight other states. Those tabulations were adjusted by us several times during the night. Again, I only know what we sent to CNN and others. I don't know what is on their web site. I did not see it on election night. Nor did I see what was on television. As you might imagine, I was otherwise occupied. As for your other questions, the answers are in what I said above. I don't know what networks post. And if your snide comment about someone telling us what to do is serious I'm sorry I wasted a minute trying to explain things to you.
warren mitofsky


Subj: Re: Exit Polls.
Date: 11/28/2004 9:27:14 AM Pacific Standard Time
From: ClintCooper2003
To: [e-mail]

I apologize for the snide comment. It was inappropriate and I do appreciate your willingness to correspond with me.

I was just curious about a couple of things. Why is it that you told the members to ignore the exit poll data in states like New Hampshire and Ohio, but not in states like Delaware or New Jersey? What were the 8 other states besides New Hampshire where you told the members to ignore the exit poll data?

I had another couple of quick questions - as for the initial exit poll data that CNN.com and others were putting on their websites, do you know approximately what time during the day that you sent those data to them? Also, do you know what time-frame that data was from (say, 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. or 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. for example)?

What time of the day did you send the members the updated data that were used to make more projections?

Do you believe that differential non-response played a major factor in the initial exit polls being so far off in certain states?

Also, have exit pollsters always waited for the results and used them to make a projection?

Do you believe that the exit polls this year may have undersampled the "rural vote"?

I'm sorry for being so inquisitive, but you must understand that there are millions of people like me who were absolutely confused on election day.

[jsamuel]

1. interesting

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

3. Problem With Your Service?

Perhaps you should ask him why his company, hired by the networks, did such a Lousy job with the exit polling. How come the company that did exit polling for the Ukraine election, was far more accurate with their results.

Does he think the networks got their money's worth? Is he now out of the exit polling business, because obviously his operation does not know how to get it right, and according to the current media, exit polling is pretty much worthless nowadays. At least here in the U.S.

[ClintCooper2003]

6. But that's not my point.

I don't think he did do a lousy job with the exit polling. I think the results are mistabulated or rigged.

[Paligal]

2. I think you are doing some of the best and most important work here

Thank you for being so informed, rational, and politely persistent in trying to get to the bottom of this. I honestly think the exit poll data and the fog around it is THE MOST IMPORTANT thing we need to get to the bottom of, because it is the foundation for all else in this fight.

If I may ask, in what function have you corresponded with him? Would he be upset with your reposting his comments? I ask, because I would like to share them with others.

Keep up the good work! You are absolutely on the right track. This is the information I have not seen anyone clear up for me, ANYWHERE. Yet it is also the argument everyone has used in the media for denying that any fraud occurred. They state, "The exit polls were screwed up". yet they cannot tell you HOW they were screwed up.

[RevCheesehead]

4. what I find interesting is Mitofsky's snottiness.

One would think he would be more professional in releasing data, especially since there are many unanswered questions.

His comments:
"If you think that is shit you can eat it, for all I care."
"There seems to be some disconnect between what I am saying and your interpretation. Your interpretation, to be plausible, should accommodate what I keep telling you."
"And if your snide comment about someone telling us what to do is serious I'm sorry I wasted a minute trying to explain things to you."


Is it just me, or would you expect him to be a bit more, oh, objective? polite? He sounds defensive, and I am even more suspicious of what he has written.

[ClintCooper2003]

8. I didn't expect anything of him...

because to be honest I started off on a very confrontational tone and was suprised he even responded in the first place.

[RevCheesehead]

11. Well, that may well be true,

but I would expect someone in his position to just stick to the facts, and leave out the snarky remarks (even if they were retaliations). Geez - the guy needs a few lessons in public relations!

One thing which confuses me: is this the guy who did the exit polls that were distributed by AP to the networks? Or some other group? I don't understand why he claims he didn't pay attention to what the networks did with his data.

And my understanding was that all the major networks agreed to use the same source for exit polling data. So regardless of what CNN posted, shouldn't it still be the same data that he sent out???

[ClintCooper2003]

13. Some background.

Mitofsky and Edison International agreed to team up to do the exit polls for major media this year. In fact, they are the National Election Pool (NEP) that people keep alluding to. Their six major members included networks like CNN, MSNBC, and FOX NEWS. So when you looked at CNN.com to see those exit polls that favored Kerry, those numbers were coming from Mitofsky and Edison together.

[RevCheesehead]

19. So is it possible that he is just as confused as everyone else?

When he said that they continually "recalibrated," what exactly does that mean? That they adjusted their polls to reflect machine tallies rather than personal responses? Or did someone within the organization cook the numbers?

Geez - at least Zogby had the decency to say "I got it wrong." (But I think he got it right!). These numbers, and their dramatic shifts, just don't cut it.

[Stand and Fight]

5. Kicking it...

:kick:

[Paligal]

7. kick

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

9. Mitofsky Non Partisan?

What are his political leanings? He didn't happen to guarantee a win for Bush a year before the election or anything, did he?

Is this the real guy who ran the exit polling operation? I can't believe his rudeness and use of foul language. This is the head of the company the major networks hired to run their exit polling? Our democracy is truly crumbling.

[ClintCooper2003]

10. I'm not sure what his leanings are.

I haven't been able to find much information on him - if anyone else can, that would be helpful. But I don't get the sense he's biased. Also, he was working with Edison International on this, so there's not much of a chance of rigging the exit poll figures.

Hey what part of Orange County are you from? I'm in Los Angeles here.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

12. South Orange County

Surrounded by the enemy. Can't give my exact location, or they might hunt me down with their assault weapons of mass destruction.

[ClintCooper2003]

14. Well, South Orange County isn't as bad as, say, South Mississippi. lol.

[Liberty Belle]

15. Lots of John Birchers in Orange County. It's a hot bed of crazies.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

16. Speaking Of The South

Every year my friend and I have gone to New Orleans for New Year's Eve. I told my friend that one of the reasons I really don't want to go there this year, is because it's a Red state. Crazy, I know, but it is definitely a strike against my feelings towards Louisiana, that they went so strongly repub.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

17. John Bircher?

Excuse my ignorance, but who is John Bircher?

[Igel]

25. Member of the John Birch Society.

Haven't heard about them in years. Loony right. Are they still even around? (Note to self ... google.)

[skids]

18. Absurdium...

Does anyone have data on the total 2004 election day turnout in all states (either sum or individual)? Or even a relatively large list of states? I'm having some fun with an attempt at reducto-ad-absurdium on Mitofski's so-called "correct" numbers over here in this thread and I could really use this data:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=201&topic_id=5931#

[ClintCooper2003]

20. Visit uselectionatlas.org for 2004 "results"

[skids]

23. Sorry, to be more clear

I need to know how many votes were cast, nationally, on Nov 2, not before (i.e. excluding early voting and absentee.)

[ClintCooper2003]

21. kick

[Paligal]

22. Info on Warren Mitofsky

Well, he hasn't directly contributed to a campaign under his own name (according to www.fundrace.com)

Criticism of him:
http://www.hillnews.com/campaign/051403_hill.aspx

[Paligal]

24. Kick- any update? This is an IMPORTANT thread

Mitofsky is an important person to keep pressure on!!!

[RubyCat]

26. Obtaining Mitofsky's exit polling data

Mitofsy says that he will release all the raw exit polling data to a public web site...but not until 3 months from now. This is according to a report I found on a website a week and a half ago. I can't remember where right now, but I can find it.

However, he wrote the following in his Nov 27 reply to ClintCooper2003:

"Be realistic. On election day we send reports to six members and about 100 subscribers. Do I know what we send? Yes. Do I know what they post on their web sites and when? Absolutely not. If you think that is disingenuous then so be it."

If he knows the reports he sent to his 6 members and 100 subscribers, then I don't understand why he doesn't release those same reports to the public right now?

Why in 3 months, why not RIGHT NOW! This is indefensible on his part.

[skids]

37. Internals of final tracking polls, a.k.a. The OTHER exit polls

While they are not as well controlled a sampling, there are at least 3 tracking polls I know of (Harris/CNN/ABC) that did ask demographic questions of early voters after they had voted, even up to the point where most early voting was over.

How would we go about getting more detailed internel results from these polls? The media stories that use them naturally are completely deficient.

Think the electoral-vote.org guy might have some?

Ideas welcome.

P.S. I don't know if you've noticed but some spooky people are on the warpath against early voting. Maybe they don't like having an extra exit poll or two in the mix.

(Referring to http://slate.msn.com/id/78548/)

P.P.S. But please, don't someone reply about the above link and then turn this into a thread primarily about them such that noone answers the top of this message. I'm sure there's an open thread about it somewhere on DU or kos.

[Straight Shooter]

27. I wonder if it's the embattled Mitofsky; could be a juvenile on his staff.

Nevertheless, we should continue to question his implausible rationalizations for discrepancies, which he still refuses to address.

Carry on, Clint. You're a hound dog on the trail of a rabid weasel.

[smartvoter]

28. Do I have this right?

Stripping it all down, is he saying his numbers were accurate and the networks used them inappropriately or creatively?

[TruthIsAll]

29. I seem to recall that Kerry was winning the female vote in OH.

How could he have been behind in Male and Female vote and ahead in the early polls? Silly question.

I think you shoud go back and check that.

Otherwise, good job. You rattled him. He will fold like a deck of cards under a good cross.

tia

[ewulf]

33. You're right,

The exit polls showed Kerry winning by something like 3% among women and 1% among men, at least thats what was up on cnn.com on election night.

[tonyblair]

30. late day shift?

Apologies if this is slightly OT but has been bugging me every time I read about the Bush voters coming out late (a bit like vampires!)

I just cannot see where this "effect" comes from. This is how I see it(you might have to correct me on the demographics here).

* Senior citizens (predominantly Bush) vote throughout polling hours as they have no work or school commitments. But, in my experience, old folks are early risers so possibly voted EARLIER - let's say outcome neutral
* Housewives with school age children (Bush? what do you think as I'm not sure how to call that group?) vote during school hours rather than drag the kids along. Probably vote directly after dropping kids at school/ before picking up - voted by 4 pm. No late day shift here.
* Students (Kerry) vote throughout the day, possibly before college but more likely after. Possible late day shift to KERRY, assuming they were committed to their studies so didn't skip to vote. Also there's the stereotypical student who eats breakfast at 2pm - this individual is probably too apathetic to show but would do so after 2pm if at all.
* Unemployed throughout the day - neutral effect
* Workers with inflexible hours, more likely to be in the type of low-paid work where you jump when the boss says, lower social class (Kerry) vote before or after work, easier after as you then don't risk being docked pay if you're late. Time would depend on shift patterns but more likely towards the end of polling hours.
* Workers with better jobs, more flexible hours (tend towards Bush?) would be somewhat more likely to vote before work or during the day but also after work.

Where is this red shift??

[ClintCooper2003]

34. Naturally, the red shift came from...

massive voter fraud and "mistabulation." God, I just pray and pray and pray that this all comes out and we can have a new President.

[democraticinsurgent]

31. kick

this is hugely important. thanks for the effort! please keep us informed...mitosfky is a key piece of this puzzle. 3 months? that sounds like a deal was cut, does it not?

reminds me of when they sealed the JFK files for 25 years or whatever. In case there's something in there that would be "bad for the country".

Yep.

[Tace]

32. Mitofsky Has His Head In A Noose And He Knows It

He's not going to get away with it. Of course he told you to eat shit. He thinks that's going to put you off. He's blowing smoke. He'll be lucky to stay out of jail because there're bigger fish to fry.

[ClintCooper2003]

35. kick

[Paligal]

36. kick

keep the pressure on Mitofsky!!!